OT: Opinion Piece About why Kelly may Leave ND
Not a fan of Dennis Dodd, but in this piece he gets at the reason why Kelly might well leave--he was lucky as heck to go 12-0 this season and will have a hard time replicating the feat:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/21534588/kell…
"[D]on't interpret Kelly's interview with Philadelphia as a “money grab. . He is/was going to get paid," Dodd writes. The reason why Kelly moved fast: "The bar has been set for him and his program. There is no going back. . . Ten wins won't be acceptable, probably not after this season. . . at the moment, there is more certainty that Kelly can get himself to the next level (NFL) than he can keep Notre Dame at its current level."
Anyone disagree with this assessment? Seems about right to me.
Mod Edit: thought Kelly had decided to leave based on title. Edited said title. [zl]January 10th, 2013 at 5:09 PM ^
and then at ND's future schedules(ACC) I would say that Kelly is on track to a sustained run of success at ND.
That said, Kelly, like most coaches, has supreme confidence in his abilities. If he goes to the NFL it is because he wants to prove that he can win at the highest level in football. It isn't about money, but ego.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:24 PM ^
This. If Kelly leaves a destination job because he's afraid that he's going to be unable to maintain the level of success he's achieved after three years there, he'll be the first coach in the history of coaching to do that. If he goes to the NFL, it would be for many of the same reasons Harbaugh did: the challenge of coaching at the highest possible level, not because he's insecure about his recent success.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:11 PM ^
You have to look at every opportunity. There's an opening for an NFL job and they are considering Kelly. He'd be stupid not to interview.
It might not ever happen again!
January 10th, 2013 at 10:45 PM ^
I hear the Lions are always on the hunt for good talent.
January 10th, 2013 at 11:50 PM ^
F U ..On a side note I notice your posts are much less trollish these days. You still get autonegged everytime you post, which makes me giggle. just saying
January 11th, 2013 at 8:46 AM ^
Meh, I just consider the source.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:12 PM ^
Brian Kelly has always been good at gettin' out while the gettin' is good. He leaves Grand Valley after going 28-1 over two seasons. He leaves Central after going 9-4 (7-1 in the MAC). He leaves Cincinnati after going 12-0. Seems perfectly reasonable to assume he leaves Notre Dame after going 12-1
January 10th, 2013 at 6:08 PM ^
Brian Kelly has also been a "climber" so it wouldn't surprise me.
January 10th, 2013 at 11:55 PM ^
Yes, he's quite the tool for wanting to move on from GVSU (lower division), CMU (AD didn't like him), Cincinnati (always 2nd fiddle).
January 11th, 2013 at 8:39 AM ^
Uhhh, Brian Kelly became head coach at GVSU in 1991. Was on staff before since 1987. Certainly "jumped ship" I absolutely agree.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:12 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 5:13 PM ^
Fix the title please. I thought you were breaking news that Kelly had made the jump.
Good info though; thanks for the post.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:21 PM ^
Agreed..I jumped to ESPN before opening the thread.
Hope he knows what he's getting into if he goes to Philadelphia - rougher crowd than ND will ever be.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:23 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 5:38 PM ^
Gene Chizik says the honeymoon is 2 years. Different situation (Cam Newton), but once a fanatically unreasonable fanbase becomes highly optomistic at a flip of a switch, it is hard to subdue them.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:39 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 5:53 PM ^
Do you think ND wins 10+ games next year?
/not tongue-in-cheek
They play us, OU, USC, Stanford, and MSU (whom I think may surprise them defensively), and Pitt. They always have trouble with Pitt. I dont see them better than 9-3, may be alone on that.
http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-13/indep/2013-notre-dame-fighting-irish…
January 10th, 2013 at 6:42 PM ^
I wasn't saying Kelly would necessarily win 10 games per year at ND. All I was saying is that if Kelly does wiin 10 games per year at ND, I don't think he'll be fired for underperformance. (Dodd was arguing the opposite in the linked article).
I agree with your assessment that 3+ losses is likely for ND next season, given their personnel and the schedule they play. That's all the more reason ND fans should be satisfied with Kelly if he posts double-digit wins again in 2013.
January 10th, 2013 at 7:46 PM ^
with Dodd. But I'm not convinced Kelly is a great coach either, so what follows a 9-3 season, as I see it, is disenchantment, and sharply reduced possibilities as an NFL coach. It's not that Kelly sh*ts the bed, but that the NFL opportunities are ripest now; don't think Dodd gets that wrong.
January 10th, 2013 at 8:10 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 8:11 AM ^
Kelly's already done plenty of things that would preclude me ever letting my son or daughter play for him. I'll leave it at that. And yes, he is a rival coach, and of course that colors my feelings. But these things also go beyond the rivalry.
January 10th, 2013 at 6:04 PM ^
He went 8-5 last year and 3-9 this year (including a 49-0 loss to Alabama). I don't know how many wins would have kept him at Auburn, but I know it was more than three and probably 8 or more.
I think Kelly almost certainly does better than that.
January 10th, 2013 at 6:07 PM ^
Chizik's a bad comparison. Auburn didn't decline to 10 win seasons. They declined to a 3 win season. They were 0-8 in the SEC and lost their last 2 SEC games by a combined 87-0. They suffered a historic collapse for a BCS champion, and there was a convincing narrative about why Chizik as relatively unimportant to their success (Cam/Malzahn).
January 11th, 2013 at 12:00 AM ^
Its not that Chizik was unimportant to their success, its that he vigorously ran off the guy primarily responsible for their success - Malzahn - and hired a guy to replace him with a philosophy so different that it essentially guaranteed at least a season of failure.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:30 PM ^
This has become a ritualistic dance for college coaches.
Why interview for the NFL? It's always the same thing.
1. Ego. It says, you good enough to be invited to the game.
2. Leverage for a pay raise.
3. Prestige -- gives you an incremental reason to look better with recruits, asst coaches, etc.
4. Why not? Strike when the iron is hot.
5. Most coaches probably look at the NFL as a fantasy job -- not only insane paydays, but, if you're a competitive person, why not compete at the highest level. Harbaugh's the example of that.
So Kelly is probably subject to at least 3-4 of these reasons. Whatever. I can't be more clear: There's nothing to see here.
Saban turning down the NFL is more newsworthy than Kelly, or anyone who just made a BCS case, in talking to the NFL.
January 11th, 2013 at 12:12 AM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 5:30 PM ^
His stock will never be higher. This team overachieved, and as I've stated several times on this blog, he was overrated before. If he intends to go, now is the best time.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:48 PM ^
Bullshit... his team didn't 'overachieve'..... ND earned it... anyone who was watching closely, saw their trajectory.... and soon ours will be similar. Kelly is a great coach.
January 10th, 2013 at 6:06 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 6:33 PM ^
We had six turnovers.
/douchechill
January 10th, 2013 at 5:39 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 5:40 PM ^
ND beat Purdue by 3, Michigan by 7, BYU by 3, Stanford in OT, and Pitt in 3OT, all at home. They beat USC, without their starting QB, by 9.
And it isn't like any of those programs had great years, outside of Stanford (and they had issues on offense all season long).
If Te'o hadn't come back, what is ND's record this year? With him leaving, not to mention a bunch of key components on offense, and the schedule probably getting more difficult before it gets easier, I'm sure Kelly sees a difficult task in front of him, especially when you consider 9-3 and missing out on a BCS bowl would probably be viewed as a failure.
Especially with the way the title game went, a few 8-5 seasons could easily put him back on the hotseat in South Bend. I see that as more likely than continued 10+ win seasons.
Looking at it from Kelly's point of view, he can stay at ND where he will have to maintain an extremely high level of success from here on out or potentially get canned in 2-3 years (let's not forget how quickly fans forgot Chizik's success, and he actually won a national title at a school with no history of doing so in modern times). Or he can get a raise to go coach in the NFL where he only has to focus on X's and O's and where 4-5 losses a year is considered a great season. And even if he lands in a bad spot and fails to win games, he can always go back to college where he'll still be a highly prized asset.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:42 PM ^
If he ever had designs on going to the NFL, this is probably the best chance for him. He has taken a team and greatly improved them year to year which culminated in an undefeated regular season. Take that plus the extraordinary amount of NFL jobs available and it stands to reason his position would never be better. Thats why he would go, not because of the pressure to duplicate his efforts again because its only going to increase in multiples once he deals with NFL fans (and increase exponentially if those NFL fans reside in Philly)
January 10th, 2013 at 5:50 PM ^
job and ohio eats a fat one in two years. E-A-G-L-E-S... Eagles! Let me dream.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:54 PM ^
Huh? So Urban takes a job that he already turned down when he went to Florida? That makes no sense.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:50 PM ^
Not sure what their turnover margin was this year either, but I'm sure it was astronomical and unlikely to repeat. Teo had like 7 INTs alone.
But Kelly is a good coach and has been successful everywhere he's been: GVSU, CMU, Cincy, NDame.
Notre Dame would lament this loss, but I think more kudos should be given to the Eagles for considering it.
So far Kelly has proven to be very opportunistic with new job offers, but I have the feeling he has unfinished business and will stay with the Irish.
January 10th, 2013 at 5:58 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 6:00 PM ^
as I was that Lewan will leave college for the NFL.
January 10th, 2013 at 6:01 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 6:07 PM ^
January 10th, 2013 at 6:08 PM ^
Les Miles. This strategy always gets more cash for Les. [bad pun intended]
January 10th, 2013 at 6:19 PM ^
He strikes me as the type of guy who gets irritated rather quickly. I imagine dealing with boosters and parents probably aren't his favorite things about college coaching.
January 10th, 2013 at 6:25 PM ^
So he'd prefer to substitute boosters and parents with overpaid, entitled players many of whom make more money than him, agents, union reps and arcane work rules, GMs/owners, etc?
January 10th, 2013 at 9:16 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 10:46 AM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 12:14 AM ^
Kelly is pretty darned good at handling the wider support communities involved with the program. Its something he took seriously each step of the way.
GVSU was pretty easy and Mt Pleasant did require a little more of his time. The jump at Cinci was huge and the AD there made sure Kelly knew it was an important part of the job. BK stepped up and did by all accounts a marvelous job on the banquet circuit.
In fact that success contributed to an amusing level of griping when he left for South Bend. As though Cinci boosters could somehow begrudge him that job. BK's sales job convinced them he really wanted to stay for the long haul.
January 10th, 2013 at 6:27 PM ^
Urban didn't go to ND before because they won't relax the academic standards for the football program. Urban tried to get that deal and they said no. He's not stupid, he coached against Miles and Saban, he knows you can't compete aginst that kind of talent unless the Administration looks the other way when it comes to restrictions and high standards.
Heck, we're going to have a very tough time getting anywhere near Bama's stature because, it's win at all costs down there. Signing 4-6 more kids thanh everyone else and booting the lower end schollie kids that don't make the championship cut. Every year Saban signs 3-5 more kids than we do and has more 5-star and 4-stars than we do. Stars don't guarantee anything, but the potential for greatness is higher and the pct is on his side.
Plus the school will let him hire ANY assistant he wants at any $$$. It's tough to compete against that all the time.
Kelly is fighting for more $$ for assistants so he can get a better defense. That's what ND needs, they'll get the recruits.
Why do you think Brandon let Hoke get whoever he wanted on defense? You have to spend the $$$ to be able to compete today. The playing field has decidely tipped the SEC's way and it ain't leveling out any time soon.
January 10th, 2013 at 8:29 PM ^
January 11th, 2013 at 12:16 AM ^
Kelly already has the most important assistant of all: Chuck Martin. The guy can coach. I'd dump Diaco and give Martin the entire defense.
January 11th, 2013 at 8:48 AM ^
Does Martin have a defensive background? Just wondering, I don't know too much outside of his time at ND. Currently he is the offensive co-ordinator and QB coach, sending him to defense seems counter intuitive.