OT: Ohio State QB Commit Air Noland Looking at Taking Other Visits

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on May 31st, 2023 at 10:56 AM

Air Noland, the four-star QB commit who's ranked No. 47 in the 2024 class, is now looking at taking official visits to Oregon and LSU. You hate to see it!

STORY LINK.

M-GO-Beek

May 31st, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^

I actually think the fan base (at least represented by those who post on the M-OG-Board) does not try to sugarcoat it when we lose out on a prospect.  As most will note, we have a fairly large 3-star mafia that gets pretty up in arms when many of our 3-stars commit. If we thought our commits were better, that wouldn't happen all that often.* 

 

*The one exception might be tight-end. Given the developmental track record of that position group, we can be fairly certain we recruited a future stud regardless of recruit rankings. 

denardogasm

May 31st, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^

I would actually say the opposite happens around here. When a guy decommits the program is falling apart because the university is living in the past. Used to be because other teams are paying players. Now it's because we're NOT paying players. Not usually because the player isn't wanted anymore.

Honker Burger

May 31st, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^

I'm all for bad things happening to OSU, but considering they've had a Heisman candidate playing QB for basically the last 20 seasons, they'll probably be ok.

pdgoblue25

May 31st, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^

Normally I'd agree with you, but then I saw what happened to Clemson when all of the sudden you don't have that caliber of QB.  It can happen.  Their talent still led them to nice records, but I don't think anyone really took them seriously as a title contender the last 2 seasons.

Honker Burger

May 31st, 2023 at 2:17 PM ^

The portal has changed everything. A recruiting miss or unexpected transfer could derail a team in the past. Way easier to fill holes now, especially when you're a big time program.

It's hard to see any scenario where they won't have a quality QB (and we have no excuse either moving forward, though Admissions, specifically transfer credits, need to be addressed for athletes). Hell, even when it looked like they were going to have a QB issue, Justin Fields magically is allowed to transfer bc of 'racial slurs.' That was an all timer, daring the NCAA to decline that waiver. They have a 'tattoo scandal' and then end up replacing a HOF coach with an even better coach (albeit complete embarrassment of a human).

OSU has sold their soul to the devil. They'll reap what they sow eventually, but they will never go on a low period like we did with Rich Rod/Hoke. They have fertile recruiting ground and are the only major football school in their state. They will always be good. Luckily, Harbaugh has us running like a well-oiled machine, and it makes beating them down that much more satisfying.

wolve1972

May 31st, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^

Yeah. i don't see much in this as committing to a team early to secure your spot and then taking paid visits - in many cases with your family - after the commitment is becoming the norm in today's CF recruiting. Might as well get all you can out of the CF Recruiting process.

OSU won't lose too many offensive players that they really want, especially QBs and WRs. Their defensive recruiting, however, is a whole different story, They've really SUCKED the last 3 or 4 years - against not only us but EVERYBODY - and you can bet opposing defensive coaches - recruiters use that against those dipshits every chance they get

NeverPunt

May 31st, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^

Opportunity to play right away at both schools may be a big draw. If McCord has a big year, you're looking at some pine riding for a bit at OSU. 

Also you have to consider if you want to play quarterback in the NFL someday, in which case you may want to avoid OSU entirely.

Watching From Afar

May 31st, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^

Also you have to consider if you want to play quarterback in the NFL someday, in which case you may want to avoid OSU entirely.

Eh, OSU is really good at getting QBs drafted. Whether or not they pan out is the question.

But, they've had 4 out of their last 5 starting QBs drafted (counting Jones). The only QB who wasn't drafted was Barrett, who signed as an UDFA.

As much as it annoys me, it makes sense why recruits go there. The offense is built to give QBs every opportunity to put up stupid numbers. From the scheme to the supporting cast, if you're playing QB at OSU you better put up 3000 yards and 30 TDs or you really suck.

Comparatively, neither LSU nor Oregon really put QBs into the league. In that same timeframe LSU has Burrow (OSU connection) and Oregon has Herbert and Mariota. Is Anthony Brown around still, I don't know. So, not great.

Watching From Afar

May 31st, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^

Also factor in that OSU doesn't develop great NFL QBs and generally sucks. 

But it does develop NFL draft picks. Would you rather go to a school that puts out 1 NFL drafted QB every 6 years who maybe starts for a decade, or a school that puts out an NFL drafted QB every single year, with 1 or 2 maybe starting 2-3 years before flaming out?

Your odds of getting to the NFL are significantly higher at OSU than they are at LSU/Oregon based off of recent history. Not everyone is Joe Burrow, but more guys are likely to be Cardale Jones and at least get that first contract.

Guys, I hate OSU as much as the rest of you, but this isn't "every single thing OSU does is the worst." It's like claiming the guy you hate said kill all kittens when he didn't. There's plenty of other things to hate the guy for, you don't need to go making stuff up or being hyperbolic about small things to make him look bad. He looks bad enough on his own! 

Blue in Paradise

May 31st, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^

I have a theory [major caveats: (i) I am not an NFL Scout - LOL and (ii) small sample size].

Basically, OSU WRs over the past 15 years have been so dominant relative to the competition that the QB is putting up big numbers throwing to guys that are wide open by 5 yards or more.  Also, OSU has been able to run a fairly basic offense given the talent advantage (ie. I will put my 11 up against yours straight up and we will win 95% of the time).

The formula above allows the QB to put up huge numbers, get Heisman consideration and get drafted high (since they are typically top 50 recruits in terms of physical traits).

However, what it doesn't do is train the QBs to read defenses, process plays quickly, take hits and then make pinpoint accurate throws.  In the NFL, the successful QBs are the ones that can excel at these four things (the physical traits are a given at that level).

Because OSU QBs are drafted in the 1st round but don't get that training at the college level, they are raw / unprepared for the NFL and then are labeled busts and thrown away. 

Or something like that.

Watching From Afar

May 31st, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^

Sure, the reason as to why OSU QBs don't pan out in the NFL can be debated. It's partially that the WRs are so good all you have to do is throw the ball in a 5 yard window and they'll catch it. It's also part that OSU's offense is built to spread you out sideline to sideline so you have to cover all 53 yards, which leaves ample space to throw passes to. Bubble screens routinely go for 35 yards at OSU and the QB gets all 35 yards of it even though the pass went 1 yard downfield.

But, the development of NFL QBs doesn't matter when it comes to getting to the NFL in the first place. OSU gets good recruits, puts them in an advantageous system, and gets them drafted. The same cannot be said for LSU/Oregon/UGA/PSU/Michigan/Texas. If you're a highly rated QB recruit who wants to at least get to the NFL, your easiest path (if you can beat out the other guys) is OSU or Alabama (or wherever Lincoln Riley is coaching). It's just that simple. If you want to be Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in the pros, well there isn't really a school that routinely produces that guy so you play the odds. Want a 90% chance of being drafted? OSU. You can't say any other program gives you those odds and certainly no program gives you even 10% odds of becoming a decades long starter in the NFL.

Watching From Afar

May 31st, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^

a wise high-level prospect would aim to be both drafted and prepared to succeed in the NFL. It's possible to have it both ways.

But where? Where is that probable, not even necessarily possible?

Oregon has 1 top-level NFL QB in Justin Herbert in the last... ever? If you ignore coaching changes and whatnot, Oregon has put like 5 guys in the NFL the last 20 years and none of them were any good except Herbert, and Mariota was ok for few minutes.

LSU similarly has 1 top-level QB in the last however many years. They also have a bunch of guys who either didn't sniff the NFL or were complete busts.

Clemson has Lawrence and Watson. They also had Boyd (good college career but never played in the NFL) and 5-star DJ Uiagalelei who suuuccckkkeeeddd so bad he left for Oregon State. They also had guys like Kelly (both Chad and Bryant) and Hunter Johnson who left because they sucked.

I could go on. The point being, unless you're going to Alabama or Oklahoma/USC when Riley is there, you're not likely to get drafted AND prepared to succeed in the NFL. That program just doesn't exist.

It's not like RBs going to Wisconsin under Alvarez/Bert/Chryst or WRs going to OSU where you'll get drafted and turn into a good pro.

lhglrkwg

May 31st, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^

generally agree except I think Oregon would protest that point about NFL QBs. OSU has basically had zero relevant starters in recent memory (the Bears are afraid to let Fields pass more than 25 times a game) while Oregon has put two starters in the league recently in Mariota and Herbert

I think theres something to be said about OSUs offense generating video game numbers in college but failing to really prep guys to start in the league 

Watching From Afar

May 31st, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^

I think theres something to be said about OSUs offense generating video game numbers in college but failing to really prep guys to start in the league 

There absolutely is. But if your goal as a recruit is to make the NFL, OSU has put 3X the number of QBs in the NFL than Oregon has in that same timespan. Playing the odds makes sense. 18 year old highly rated recruits all think they're the next Justin Herbert, but more likely they're Jameis Winston. So would you rather have a good shot at getting to the NFL, or a mediocre shot at getting to the NFL before you know if you actually are Herbert or Winston?

As I said elsewhere, if you want to make the NFL AND succeed, you're either going to Alabama, wherever Riley is coaching, or Clemson back before they lost their coordinators. Those are the only programs that have put QBs in the league at a similar rate of OSU AND had multiple starters.

Moreover, as I alluded to with Riley, it's not necessarily the "programs" that put those QBs in the NFL. Mariota was 4 coaches ago at Oregon. Herbert was 1 coach ago. Burrow was 1 coach ago at LSU and Brian Kelly is not good at getting guys to the NFL.

Day has been at OSU in some capacity since 2017 and the scheme is relatively the same. He has had a hand in 4 QBs getting to the NFL. The only other coach with similar numbers is Riley and Saban (who obviously isn't focused on offense).