OT (kinda): Can the Pistons atone for last year's draft debacle?
I think it is safe to say that a large number of us Wolverine/Pistons fans wanted Dumars to do the right thing and draft Trey Burke which he didnt. Now we are stuck with Brandon Jennings, who despite his numbers and talent, is probably the worse leader in basketball and a shooting guard that hustles but can’t shoot. It’s quite obvious at this point that if Joe was not going to draft Burke then THJ should have been the pick not KCP, but I digress.
Fast forward to this year's draft and assume (but hope not) that Nik Stauskas declares for the draft. Would it make since for Joe D (or whoever the new GM will be) to draft him with the 7th-8th pick in the draft? That’s if we continue to tank and keep the draft pick this year?
The Pistons are next to last in 3pt fg % which was a huge reason why the team has struggled so much this year, and by now the world knows 3's are Nik's specialty. It makes sense to me. Now if Izzo gets the job, I’m betting that pick is Gary Harris.
Am I off base with this assessment? Any opinions?
Trey Burke hasn't been doing so hot this year either. The homerism we have toward him and the blind hate for the pistons for not drafting him is kinda ridiculous. Jennings and Burke are shooting around the same % this year. Now don't get me wrong, Jennings is a chucker who isn't a good fit for the pistons, but Trey Burke would not have helped us much this year. KCP still has the opportunity to be a good player. He's shown flashes of his shooting, and he's already a good defender. If we we're gonna go back and redo the offseason, I would have drafted MCW and kept Brandon Knight as a 2 guard or bring him off the bench. Signing Smith was obviously another huge mistake, as he has the lowest bball iq I've ever seen as well as being a chucker to boot. This offseason the pistons (if they keep their draft pick) will get a good player, which will not be Nik Stauskas. They then need to decide if they want to keep Monroe or Smith. I'd actually lean toward Smith if they get a coach who plays him only at the 4 and makes him play defense. Monroe's defense isn't getting any better and he and Drummond aren't the best fit for each other. Then if we can get rid of Jennings for something decent, do it, and try to get Kyle Lowry or Eric Bledsoe, even though the possiblity of those two being available is slim. Otherwise either draft a new pg or roll with Jennings and hope the new coach can help him out, as he is still only 24 years old. They could also get a new pg and put Jennings as the 6th man if they do away with Stuckey. In any scenario, I don't see Nik becoming a piston, as the main need for them is a SF with range. Why would we want our Michigan guys to get drafted by the pistons anyway? I have no hope that they will turn their team around anytime soon, so I'd rather Nik and Trey have sucessful careers elsewhere.
Your argument for not drafting Burke is that his has the same shooting% as a 5 year vet... I think most fans would take a rookie who's still developing his shot at the next level over a PG who is allergic to passing the ball. You can't compare Burke to Jennings. Plain and simple has, Burke shown more as a starting PG than KCP has shown as a SG off the bench? Yes. Dumars is too concerned with being the smartest guy in the room. Darko, Stuckey, Austin Daye, Joe's drafting is a tire fire. If you thought MCW was the best point guard in the draft last year, then I tip my cap to you. But no one was saying that going into the draft. He did not look good in the tournament last year and seemed to be an oversized PG with no outside game. Had Dumars drafted MCW I doubt you would hear a peep out of Michigan or Piston fans about not drafting Burke. The fact that he took the walmart version of Bruce Bowen with the 8th overall pick shows just how clueless he is about evaluating talent in relation to value. KCP would've probably been ther in the 2nd, or at least a similar gritty defensive minded SG.
You're an idiot. KCP was a consensus top ten pick, averaged 19 points a game and shot 38% from the 3. How can you judge him after 70 games playing with Stuckey, Jennings, Will Bynum and Josh Smith? By the way, Bruce Bowen was pretty valuable to the Spurs....as is Tony Allen to the Grizzlies, Jimmy Butler to the Bulls and Patrick Beverley to the Rockets. KCP will be ok, I have no idea why people like you are so off-based with evaluating the pick. Homerism maybe?
Off Base? Have you seen some of KCP's statlines? Do you know what Club Trillion is? The OSU bench players who made it a point to get 1 minute played, and all zeros on the stat sheet, i.e. the stat sheet looks like it says 1 trillion.
KCP has had nights where he's in club 10 Trillion (Feb 18). His stat lines are abysmal, and you're comparing him to late 1st, 2nd, and undrafted players. Not top 10 lottery picks.
19 ppg and 38% from 3 on one of the worst teams in a pretty bad college conference are inflated numbers.
Dumars has a history of attempting to out "hunch" his fellow GMs. That seldom works well.
KCP was NOT a "consensus top ten pick". He was a mediocre, high-volume shooter in college and was a reach at #8. You can find shooting guards who can't shoot in the 2nd round.
Can KCP be a valuable player? Sure. Was this a good use of a resource. NO. You could've found the same basic player in the second round.
The KCP vs Trey debate is far from decided. Both are complementary players at best. Anyone acting like they can tell you a Derek Fisher is more or less valuable than a Bruce Bowen is full of it. It just depends on the surrounding talent. If your star player is Shaq, Tim Duncan, or Dirk nowitzki - you probably want a guy like Trey. If your star is Lebron or Derrick Rose, you want KCP.
The bigger issue is that the Pistons have been generally mismanged for nearly a decade now and a flat-out train-wreck for the last 5 or so. The defensible KCP selection doesn't even make the top 50 of bad Dumars decisions. It's just a lightning rod for Michigan fans who, understandably, love Trey.
A more interesting debate IMO is Trey vs Tim. It'll be interesting to see who has the better NBA career. Ditto for GR3 vs Nik.
Isn't so much a lightning rod as he is the straw that broke the camels back. By the way, does Drummond strike you as more of a Shaq/ Duncan/ Dirk guy or a LeBron/ DRose guy? Getting someone who could direct the floor better was more important than getting a gritty 2 guard off the bench. Two things were obvious last year: 1) Drummond is the future. 2) Brandon Knight wasn't a starting PG. Maybe Trey wasn't the pick, but the percieved value should have been enough to draft him. The Twolves took Burke and flipped him for the number 14 and 21 picks.
Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Kyle Singler, Amir Johnson, Carlos Delfino, Tayshaun Prince. His draft is average, not tire fire like you make it out to be. If you look at the rest of the GM's draft track record, you'd think they suck at drafting as well.
KCP would not have been there at 2nd round. He is projected as a 1st round pick and he was the SEC POY at UGA.
AA wasn't a bad pick, either.
I'm less than thrilled with recent Joe D. transactions, but I would be curious to see some sort of "hits vs misses" analysis of all NBA GM's (assuming I cared about the NBA).
Affalo but he shouldn't have jettisoned him IMO
Okur, Stuckey, and Maxiell were good picks too. Jerebko wasn't bad for a second rounder either.
If you want to criticize Joe D, draft isn't one of them. Fans, don't say Darko because 99% of the GM would've made the same pick as Joe D if they had #2 overall pick at the time.
99% of GMs also would have taken Drummond, Monroe, and Knight where Joe got them.
Then why the hell did all the GMs directly ahead of the pistons pass on them. Many pistons fans were upset with the Drummond pick at the time. I was just looking at the draft night gamethread on DBB the other night.
Because there were more (other) players available, like Demarcus Cousins for example in the Monroe draft. Dumars has mostly made the obvious (consensus) picks. Where he's shined in the past was in getting value out of late picks and 2nd rounders.
If 99% would've taken them at that spot, then why weren't they taken earlier? Drummond was once considered to be a #1 overall pick at one point.... Joe D made the right pick at that spot.
Look at Aaron Rodgers. He was once projected at #1 overall pick but fell to #23 overall pick. Now he's the best QB in the league. Would you have said 99% of the GMs would've picked Rodgers at #23 overall? That is based on your logic.
Burke currently has a PER of 12.2, 10th in the league among rookies playing at least 15 mpg. That's a better PER than point guards Monta Ellis, Jose Calderon, George Hill, Eric Bledsoe, Jason Williams, Mookie Blaylock, and Scott Skiles managed in their rookie years, and all those guys turned out just fine. Nobody thinks Burke will be the best player in the NBA someday, but he's certainly not a bust.
This is a pretty flawed argument for a few reasons. First, you assert that Burke is performing nearly on the same level as Jennings. Personally, I don't completely agree, but Burke is definitely not blowing off Jennings' doors at least. Still though, Burke would be a rookie and Jennings has been in the league for 5 years. If there's two guys performing at the same level, wouldn't you take the rookie, who is very, very likely to improve by next season? I'm not so confident that Jennings gets better.
Second, you don't think Burke is that great, but would have kept Knight to play at the 2? Well guess what, if you have Burke, you don't have to trade for Jennings and get to keep Knight. Even if you don't like Knight, you can trade him for a different SG or a SF. I can't say trading Knight would get you a better SG or SF than KCP, but is it that hard to believe you get someone near that level? Personally, I don't see why you couldn't get someone at least close to KCP's productivity or better by trading Knight.
Finally, the concept that the Pistons can get a good player this year is pretty much irrelevant to the debate about Burke vs. KCP. You could have drafted Burke and added a nice wing player this year and I don't think you're behind where you would be after the draft this year.
At the end of the day, even if you stick with Burke and Knight, I don't think you're much behind where you are right now, expect you have a 1st year & 3rd year player instead of a 1st and 5th year player like the Pistons have now. Plus, you get the off the court bonus of Burke over Jennings.
Your last point I agree with though. There are plenty of guys the Pistons could or should have taken in the draft and yes, I would rather see the Michigan guys elsewhere.
I'm not agreeing with everything here, but I'll agree people are ignoring Burke's very real struggles this season in the NBA. He's still a good pro, but he had a ceiling and we are seeing that it isn't necessarily perennial All Star. And for those bitching about Jennings, he isn't the problem on this team, and never was. Look at Burke's rookie numbers vs. Jenning's and you'll see basically the same player (with Jennings a bit better of scorer and defender), and Burke is a year older. And unless I'm way off, It certainly never felt like people were talking up Jennings as superstar after his rookie year.
On this team, with the way the offense is constructed, I don't think he'd be a great shooter by percentages. But his shooting numbers in college weren't much off from Burke's, and he had way fewer players around him to help carry the load. He's still a very good defender, and while he may not be a star, I don't think Burke will be either. At best, he'll be a top-15 PG who is a decent scorer and a mediocre defender; a great 2nd-team PG on a contender or a starter on an average squad.
is being generous. It'd be the worst defensive team ever. Andre has the potential to be a quality defender, but isn't there yet. He's only 20 which is crazy to think about.
This isn't HORSE - you need to stop someone to win. Drummond would be the best defender on that team (depending on the SG), and he's below-average.
Not any more. This was the belief up until a couple months ago until the flaws of top players were more exposed. ESPN had a great article with GMs saying that this draft is pretty deep, but there are no longer any "game-changers". ESPN mock draft this week put Nik in the bottom end of the lottery (10-13). His athleticism has increased a lot this year, as has his defense.
I bet he'll go around 15 myself. But you over-estimating this draft and underestimating Nik.
You clearly don't watch any NBA basketball or know anything about the game if you're saying Reddick and Fredette are similar (racist). Reddick is routinely lauded as a Top-10 pick in draft do-overs and has established himself as a quality NBA player.
There's probably no way we could get either of them, but Jabari Parker or Andrew Wiggins would be perfect. It would take a miracle for them to fall down to us, though, and all that's left after them is big men and PGs. I think we'll probably end up drafting Gary Harris, Izzo or not. I might be a little bit of a reach, but Stauskas would be a definite reach. We could try to trade down and get him but I can't see us taking him with the 7th-8th spot. We're in a weird spot to draft a player who fits our needs.
And as far as Burke goes, we had a need at the 2 and we tried to fill it. I don't blame Dumars for taking KCP.
I watched the Michigan/Texas game at the Inn Zone off of the 95 with a bunch of UM fans. You ever been there?
That'd be a good guess haha. Haven't been there yet. There's a few of them and they're all pretty far from me.
I think Dumars did Burke a favor and I hope he does for Stauskus as well...
jdon
If you're picking Stauskas in the Top-10 this year, you're probably doing something wrong (I hope down the road hindsight makes me regret this comment). However, if he stays a year, he could probably jump himself up to the bottom of the Top-10 or just outside it.