OT: The Detroit Lions loss, the day after ......
I was at the game yesterday. Fun-as-hell 1st half, a less fun 2nd half.
I drove back to LA after the game. For whatever reason, I felt rather "zen" about the loss last night. Maybe driving endless miles on I-5 through the dark and featureless Central Valley does that.
But today ---- man, NOW it feels like such a missed opportunity. On par with the Cincinnati Reds' 2012 loss to the San Francisco Giants (there are some other Reds fans here, I know).
Anyway: what's the 24-hour post-mortem?
January 29th, 2024 at 3:23 PM ^
Tough to repeat without Ben Johnson so pay the man and tell him he's not ready just yet to be a head coach (at least until we clone his brain to his trained backup trainee).
January 29th, 2024 at 5:07 PM ^
Ben Johnson is the latest beneficiary of coordinator mania. The fact of the matter is the front office assembled an elite offensive line, two productive running backs, an all-pro receiver, a rookie of the year candidate tight end, an experienced QB, and other valuable supporting cast players.
He's been a very good coordinator for us but it's going to be fine on offense.
January 29th, 2024 at 6:00 PM ^
But he called a run play at the goal line where if we got stopped and burned a timeout the game was over. I immediately asked if a decision like that is slam dunk head coach material.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:23 PM ^
Positive: Team overachiever, youthful execution by players and staff, should be a tremendous learning moment that hopefully catapults the team to a several year run as a division winning playoff team.
Emotional: Gah....kick the field goals and we are in the Sooooper Boooooowl!!!! *$@&!!!!
January 29th, 2024 at 4:14 PM ^
But also a 48-yard FG is not a gimmie.
Ask Moody.
January 29th, 2024 at 5:14 PM ^
I've been saying this everywhere. Wasn't like it was a 35 yd fg attempt. Reynolds straight up had 2 worst drops in franchise history. Couple that with Purdy chucking the ball into coverage and getting bailed out every time by horse shit luck. Either way Lions should have won.
January 29th, 2024 at 5:43 PM ^
First one to make it 27-10 would have been 45-46 yards he’s 78% career kicker from that range and 86% the last 2 years. Campbell just has to own it he blew it. And I could tell he does have regret.
January 29th, 2024 at 5:57 PM ^
He wouldn't be Dan Campbell is he kicked those field goals.
January 29th, 2024 at 6:01 PM ^
But he’d have a trip to the Super Bowl
January 29th, 2024 at 6:17 PM ^
Still pissed about both of those 4th down attempts vs field goals, dropped balls and missed tackles
January 29th, 2024 at 8:22 PM ^
Yeah but didn’t they convert on another fourth down and end up with a TD? You can’t have it both ways!
January 29th, 2024 at 8:42 PM ^
I mean, technically, yes--but that was on their final drive, and they were pretty much compelled to go for it on 4th down on the goal line, since they were down by 10 with under a minute to play. So, that's probably not what you have in mind.
But otherwise, no, they were 0-2 on other conversions, and then of course they punted on 4th down and kicked a FG on 4th down near the end of the half.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:23 PM ^
The moment got too big. They will get back to that moment and they will know what to do.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:21 PM ^
Anybody out there think we would have won had the game been at Ford Field? I do. And it would have been without obvious referee incompetence in Dallas.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:25 PM ^
The game would have still been in SF. If Detroit beats Dallas, SF would have actually tried in their season finale at home versus the Rams, and likely won with ease.
January 29th, 2024 at 5:13 PM ^
Sure hope so but there are no guarantees about getting back there in the future. But, on the bright side, this team is young so I would imagine they'll have some additional success in the next 2 to 3 years
January 29th, 2024 at 3:24 PM ^
Nobody expected this. This team was supposed to be contender next year.
I'm fairly confident that we'll be able to recreate our success even if Ben Johnson heads to Washington
January 29th, 2024 at 3:25 PM ^
How long was that drive. Damn. I remember west coast family once drove down from SF to Anaheim for a Disneyland trip and they had to drive like 9 hours.
That Lions loss sucked and Dan always coaches with no regrets, with the roster they have they should be fine
January 29th, 2024 at 3:29 PM ^
depending on where he lives, about 4-5 hours on a Sunday evening. I once made it from the grapevine to the 152/Los banos turn in 2 hours, back when the speed limit was 55. That was fun.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:44 PM ^
It wound up taking 5 hours. The Tule Fog was a thing last night, so I kept it at 70. I live in the Valley.
Funny thing: I stopped for gas around halfway in Lost Hills (an aptly named place). The gas station, everyone else there was Detroit Lions fans! There were quite a few of us driving back to LA last night.
----
On a side note: 152 east of Gilroy to the Hollister turn-off is STILL only a 2-lane highway. What a terrible road given what a vital corridor it is. WTF California?!?!?!
January 29th, 2024 at 4:14 PM ^
Was a fun drive in a 5.0, back in the day…
January 29th, 2024 at 3:26 PM ^
The game was a missed opportunity caused by missed opportunities. Sure, it would have been nice to try to take a 3-possession lead or tie the game on one of the 4th downs (no guarantee Badgley would make the kicks). The bigger problems were running the ball on 3rd and goal, the dropped INT, dropped 4th down conversion, and fumble on their own 25. If ANY of those go the other way, they at worst have a chance with 40 seconds left and at best are in a commanding lead going into the 4th quarter.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:32 PM ^
This is the answer. You could also add in the punt that should’ve been downed at the 1 yard line but was instead a touchback.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:42 PM ^
That's true, but nothing in a football game happens in a vacuum. Everything is related and is an outgrowth of what came before it. That is why analytics are always part of the equation, but they should never be relied upon like a calculator.
The second 4th down was fine. That was a 52 yarder from the right hash to tie late in a game. That is a long and tricky kick under immense pressure and the game is pretty much over if you miss it.
The first 4th down is really not excusable, though. That is a 44 yarder from left hash to go up three scores in the middle of the 3rd quarter. That is a no brainer kick. Coaches are really starting to overthink these things.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:56 PM ^
I believe you have this backwards.
Lions were leading 24-10 with 7:00 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, facing a 4th and 2 on the 49ers 28 yard line. That's a 45-yd FG.
This was their first drive of the second half, and up to that point in the game, Detroit was absolutely terrorizing the 49ers defense. EVERYTHING was working. The run game was outstanding, over 150 yards in the first half alone, and the passing game was moving the sticks consistently up and down the field. There was no reason at that point in the game to believe that they weren't picking up two yards, especially when that's what they've hung their hat on all year.
If Dan Campbell decides to kick a field goal there in the middle of the third quarter, it’s a safe bet they make it to go up by 17. 45-yard FG's are NFL chip shots, but attempting a field goal right there is not who they are. Even if they make it, it’s NOT who they are, and if they miss it, it's also NOT who they are. So they go for it, get the right look and the WR drops it. That’s not on the coach. That’s on the player. This is why people love Dan Campbell, because he’s a contrarian who KNEW that if he came to Detroit and played it straight, just like the Same Old Lions had done for Decades, they’d have no chance. No chance!
With 7:30 left in the game, facing 4th and 3 on the 49ers 30 yard line, down 27-24 with the overall feeling that Detroit was on life support at that very moment, even though they were still kind of moving the ball, was it a good choice to go for it instead of attempting to kick a 47-yard FG right there to tie the game? Probably not, to Absolutely Not. That's the one that Dan Campbell eats, and he’ll own it and wear it on his sleeve for all of time, which is exactly where Detroit Lions fans expect to see it. Right on the sleeve for for the whole world to see.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:30 PM ^
Even if they make it, it’s NOT who they are, and if they miss it, it's also NOT who they are.
Meh, he kicked a FG at the end of the first half and the Earth didn't stop spinning on its axis. Good coaches adapt to the situation instead of letting some mantra dictate everything they do.
There is a significant difference between leading by 14 and 17 points - two vs. three possessions - whereas the difference between a 17- and 21-point lead is functionally smaller, since it's three possessions either way. The important thing on that drive was to get back up three possessions and the opportunity was right there, a field goal from a reasonable distance. They should have taken it.
January 29th, 2024 at 5:48 PM ^
Badgley has career 77 percent FG make rate between 40-49 yds. Not exactly a gimme. Reynolds had the ball hit him in the hands on 4th and 2 and flat out dropped it.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:46 PM ^
If it's a safe bet that they would have made the FG, they definitely should have tried the FG. I'm not a Lions fan, but was rooting for them so they could get to the Super Bowl. At that point the Niners had scored 10 points, so it wasn't like you knew they were going to score the TDs they did. A 17 point deficit takes a lot of air out of most teams. The momentum is still with Detroit and there's no way to tell how the Niners would have reacted after the FG.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:20 PM ^
Someone went back and did a hand count - Badgley is 45% for his career from 48 yards+. You just can't trust the guy to make "standard" NFL FGs. Remember, even Money Moody missed earlier on the same end of the field. I think Campbell just couldn't trust him. Who'd have thunk that not signing Matt Prater after the 2020 season would have been so costly 3 years later.
Also, Detroit converted 75% of their 4th and 3 or less this season, including 2 of 2 in the playoffs.
All that being said, I do think the Lions should have kicked the FG when they were at the 24 with 1:39 and 3 TOs left. They had the 1st down, spike the ball, kick the FG then do the onside/force a punt.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:26 PM ^
Campbell took the points in the first half when he had 4th and goal, why the hell didnt he take them again in the 2nd half? And yes I'm fully aware he goes for it more than any other coach and yes, that's the style that got them there but dammit, three points at least stems the bleeding and moves it back out to a three score game.
What nobody's taking about that got me pissed off was the missed spot on third down. He was clearly past the line to gain when he was tackled and the ball got marked down almost two full yards back, why the hell wasnt that challenged?
And missed opportunity indeed. Up 24-7 at half, no excuse for losing that game and a slot in the Super Bowl. DAMMIT.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:29 PM ^
I’m not disagreeing but taking the points on 4th and goal is slightly different than a 48 yarder.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:35 PM ^
Regarding the FG at the end of the half, many in the game thread pointed out one benefit of going for the TD is that if you miss, the opponent is left with lousy field position. That doesn’t matter at the end of the half, so you take the points.
The San Francisco Giants baseball stadium is notorious for awful winds. The football stadium isn’t in the same area, but I wonder if the elements factored in. I wasn’t confident in Badgley making 45 or 47 yard attempts out doors. Moody missing earlier may have factored into the decision. And if you miss, San Fran gets the ball at the 35 or 37. That’s good field position. And we know Dan Campbell isn’t punting there.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:03 PM ^
It was dead calm, quiet in the stadium. Zero adverse weather
January 29th, 2024 at 5:57 PM ^
Well, there goes that theory.
How about kicking on grass versus turf?
(I’m really trying to defend Campbell because he’s so damn fun to root for.)
January 29th, 2024 at 3:40 PM ^
The factors are slightly different at the end of the half. One of the factors in favor of going for it down near the goal line is that if you don't get it you stick them with a long field. At the end of the half, you don't have that factor in play. So not necessarily comparing the first half situation to the second half one, but in that late first half scenario that extra bit of thinking has to come into play.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:22 PM ^
For what it's worth -- the "analytics" said that the FGs in the second half were a fraction of a percentage worse than going for it. Like 0.2 and 0.3% - whereas kicking the field goal instead of going for it at the end of the half was a 4% difference in expected win.
So, you can make the argument that the analytics were so close in the second half that any decision was reasonable, but he bungled the first half call.
Personally, I was and am still pissed that he didn't take the points in the first second half field goal. At best, if you score a td you're still only up three scores - there's not much difference at that point of the game for a 17 or a 21 point lead. It also clearly rattled the entire team and put all the momentum squarely on the 49ers side, for which they never recovered.
Regardless, this will be one of those decisions forever debated in Detroit circles.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:44 PM ^
The bleeding had not even started yet. That was the move that caused the cut to begin with.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:27 PM ^
Glad I went. Had a great weekend. Sorry they lost but we were playing with so much house $.
I’ve been telling people I may have died this fall and gone to football heaven. High school team did great, coaching the twins is a gas. college son had a great year, and his team played well. Michigan won a national championship, of course NFC championship for the lions.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:27 PM ^
Pain.
Bright future, but the secondary, DL, and WR corps need to be looked at.
Jameson Williams shows flashes, and maybe he puts it together in year 3, but Reynolds/Williams in their current levels doesn't cut it.
Chris Jones, Brian Burns, L'Jarius Sneed, Tee Higgins etc all help dramatically increase the ceiling. Obviously, you aren't signing all of them, but 1-2 of them help.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:30 PM ^
All I can say is that there is nothing like a loss in the NFC Championship game, a game which has not seen the Lions in 33 years, to cause some segments of the fanbase to suggest radical changes which would result in the Lions most assuredly not returning to that game for another 33 years at least.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:17 PM ^
Lions seem to do this on their own. If Dan only goes .500 next season and misses the playoffs, he will be on the hot seat in 2025. These cycles of near Lion greatness to having the worse team in the league tend to happen a lot here.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:32 PM ^
My feelings in a nutshell.
Sucks we blew a 24-7 halftime lead for a chance to go to the Superbowl. But nobody, absolutely nobody had that on their NFL Bingo card this year - so instead of being depressed, I'm thankful for the season we had.
Enough with the 'Should have kicked the FG' nonsense. Coach Campbell made the right call, and Ben Johnson dialed up the perfect play. Reynolds unfortunately missed a catch he would normally make 9 out of 10 times. And besides. Our kicking unit sucks ass.
Time to move on.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^
feels like their "TCU" moment. Hopefully next year they "Beat Bama"
I was immediately texting all my friends when they didn't kick that field goal in the 3rd quarter to stay up 3 scores. I feel like they win that game if they just take the points
January 29th, 2024 at 3:40 PM ^
Hopefully so. It would feel nice.
Admittedly, being a Reds, PSU Football and Detroit Lions fan is part of it for me. What a combo.
2012 vs the Giants, 2017 & 2018 vs OSU, 2023 Lions vs SF. All 4 times --- HAD it, they were one step from the finish line. But never took that step, and the first 2 never got back either.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:41 PM ^
I expected us to get blown out a la Michigan’s first playoff game against Georgia. I was pleasantly surprised that we punched them in the mouth for the first half. I don’t wish this on Seth, but I would be fascinated to see what SanFran’s defensive adjustment was. It seems like they took away the run game, St. Brown, and LaPorta in the second half. Reynolds needed to step up. He didn’t. Jameson needed to catch the flea-flicker. Goff’s ability to make plays under pressure is a step (at least) below Mahomes and Purdy’s, and that is why KC is playing SF.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:39 PM ^
That game was was coaching and execution mistakes. The moment was simply too big and the pressure showed who can handle it and who can't.
Reynolds clearly can't and so its time to move on. Gibbs gets a break as a rookie. Campbell I am still not sure what to make of yesterdays decisions.
January 29th, 2024 at 3:40 PM ^
Think there's way too much overreaction going on, but probably normal for the day after. I wonder what people will think in a month or two after it's all had time to sink in.
First off, this is not SOL. If they had lost the way they lost in Dallas, that's SOL. They simply got outplayed and outcoached in the second half by a better team. 24-7 at halftime seems like a big lead, but after SF scored on their first possession it became a 10 point game with almost a full half to play. The lions simply don't have a good enough defense to win games like this. It's why they got destroyed by Baltimore and Green Bay. It's why they would likely have gotten destroyed by Kansas City with a healthy Kelce if they somehow won yesterday and made it to the Super Bowl.
Luckily, this is just the start of their window. They should have at least 3 years after this where they can make a solid run, maybe even 4 or 5. I expect them to lose in the first round a couple of times, especially since they will likely be playing on the road. But if they can make another run like this, with a better pass rush and secondary (even at the expense of an offensive weapon or two), they are going to be set up to win it all. And having this game in the minds of some of the players when/if they get there might serve as motivation a la TCU.
Bottom line: Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships.
EDIT: Oh, and get a real kicker too. That's probably part of the reason why Campbell kept going for it, no trust in Badgeley.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:24 PM ^
They didn’t get destroyed by Green Bay. They lost by 7 and lost primarily because Goff turned it over three times.
January 29th, 2024 at 4:25 PM ^
As a nitpick, the SF lead was still 14 after they scored to open the half. They only kicked a FG, which is why it makes no sense Lions didn't match that when they had the chance. It would have been a 17 point lead half way through the 3Q, not a 10 point lead. 3 score game versus 2 score game at that point makes a huge difference.
January 29th, 2024 at 9:39 PM ^
Luckily, this is just the start of their window.
Windows can come and go pretty fast if you don't have Mahomes or Brady. Buffalo thought they had a great window 4 years ago and have done nothing with it. What does Baltimore have to show with a soon to me 2x MVP at QB. Goff will be in his age 30 year next year - not ancient or anything but aside from a few freaks mid 30s is pretty much the end for many QBs.
Decker will be age 31 going into next year, and Glasgow age 32 season. Ragnow is younger but has that toe injury which might curtail his career length. Jackson doesn't look like will be resigned due to the amount of money they have in Decker Ragnow and upcoming for probably a market reset tackle money with Sewell.
They do have youth of course with the last 3 draft pick classes but their salary cap is about to take some serious hits in terms of space to get those guys retained. And they were very injury free this year on a relative scale. All it takes is a key OL or QB injury and one of your years in your window is gone.
Yesterday was a massive missed opportunity - up 17 at a half in a conference championship game is not going to roll around too often in our lives. Big big bummer.