OT: CFP Format - ADs meet and decide not to change the planned 12 team CFP format at this time - ESPN article
The CFP is an ongoing topic of interest. With conference expansion and revenue distribution split between the P5 and G5 schools - as well as automatic qualifiers, there are questions whether the current structure - with 12 teams and conference champions - as well as media payouts - will remain as proposed, or - will change based on recent conference realignment.
The conference AD's met in Chicago earlier this week - and decided not to make any changes to the proposed 12 team form (effective in 2024) or the media payout. The article does raise the point of the CFP revenue distribution between P5 and G5 conferences - as well as the potential impact of the Pac 12's status as a P5 conference.
The article is posted on EPN - it's not paywalled - here's the link: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38506062/cfp-shelves-talk-changes-pac-12-situation-plays-out
There are a few interesting points raised in the article.
- Revenue distribution - currently the P5 conferences split 80% of the CFP revenue - and, the G5 gets the other 20%. What happens if the Pac 12 ceases to exist or become a "G" level conference?
- The ESPN CFP contract goes through the '25 season - and, there seems to be interest in "broadening" the broadcast rights beyond ESPN - to potentially include streaming and/or other networks.
- What is the criteria for "automatic selection" - the current '24 season format is - "6+6" the P5 conference champs and highest ranked G5 champ are automatic - plus six At-Large teams. Does this change to 5+7 - or a different figure?
My guess is - once the Pac 12 future is known - specifically, does it remain a P5 conference - or not, the ADs will get together again and reach some decisions. The "new" conference landscape may be - a Power four (P4) and Group of Five (G5). OR - if the Pac-12 continues to exist and WSU / OSU are able to get other teams to join it - that the ADs will change it from a "Power" conference - to a "Group" conference - so, it could be a P4 / G6.
Any thoughts, interest, etc.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
Win all our games and none of this stuff matters.
4, 8, 12-team... doesn't matter much to me until we see how they play out in real time. Lots of unforeseen secondary consequences for any changes. It's good to keep it stable for a minute and collect data.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
Even if it somehow stays in existence, I don't see how the Pac (whatever) can hold on to "power" conference status as it will almost certainly just be "promoting" current Group of 5 teams up to the Pac, meaning it would two former power conference teams and a bunch of body bag teams. Personally, I'm not sure that the Big 12 should still be categorized as a Power 5 especially after Texas and Oklahoma leave next year.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
I think the Big 12 is in pretty good shape. Yes, they lose Oklahoma and Texas after this season - but, they also add other current P5 schools to cover the gap.
IIRC, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State will go to the Big 12 next season. Granted, Texas and Oklahoma are very traditional and usually strong programs - but, legacy P5 teams are taking their place.
The Pac 12 is a completely different story - unfortunately.
September 28th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
Random thought and side note, if I were Arkansas I would get out of the SEC and go BACK to the Big 12. The Big 12 is definitely trying to remain a power 5 conference and the competition level for Arkansas would be more in line from a football standpoint. It’s interesting because I think Arkansas is in a small amount of schools that competes in most other sports except the highest revenue generating one, Football.
September 28th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
Nerdy "well actually" moment of the day:
Arkansas was never a Big 12 school. They left the SWC to join the SEC in 1992.
September 28th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^
Yup. If anyone were to leave the SEC for competitive reasons, I'd have to imagine it would be Mizzou.
September 28th, 2023 at 9:14 PM ^
yoo hoo, says Vandy.
October 1st, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
I see Mizzou as more like since they are a Big 12 refugee to begin with vs. Vandy which has been in the SEC forever. Vandy is the SEC's Northwestern.
September 28th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^
Won't happen on Arkansas' decision. They'd lose way too much from revenue sharing between the SEC and Big 12...
September 28th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
DERP
You're right, I forgot about the Pac 12 refugees heading to the Big 12. I was only thinking about the recent Group of 5 teams that they had added (BYU, UCF, Houston and Cincinnati) and how a good chunk of the conference would be former G5 teams.
Again...DERP on my part.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
I agree with you except on the current status of the Big 12.
While it's definitely been somewhat "watered-down" (an unavoidable situation when CFB bluebloods such as OU and Texas defect), they're also getting a strong Utah program and potentially competent Colorado and Arizona St programs, somewhat balancing things out.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
The entire thing needs blown up. In no world should Notre Dame and smaller conferences have equal voting power as the Big Ten.
The Big Ten and SEC need to flex their power here and say unless they get more control they will not participate and create their own post season.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
Interesting point. I don't know what kind of "weight" Swarbrick - NDs AD has - whether it's the same as a single school's AD - or - that of a conference. My assumption is - he's the same as a single school; however, I don't know for sure.
My view is - and has been - that ND should be included with the ACC schools and the voting block, etc. No special handling, preferences, etc. - should be given to ND. And, FWIW based on this year - I think ND should have to qualify for the CFP through the CCG process. So, in order for ND to be eligible for the CFP - they would have to play in the ACC CCG. In this season - depending on how things play out - ND might have to face FSU in the ACC CCG.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
I think the current deal is that ND is excluded from the possibility of a first round bye, because those are reserved for the four highest rated conference champions, but I could be wrong (and I agree with your view of the way things should be).
September 28th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
Why can't ND be considered for an at-large berth if they're not a conference champion? I mean, you're going to expect Michigan to be an at-large qualifier if by some fluke of possibility we don't win the B1G CG...
I mean, nobody likes ND, but if FSU wins the ACC CG you know Clemson will expect consideration. And so ND -being eligible for the ACC CG, should be able to expect such consideration also.
September 28th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
If ND played in the ACC CCG - then, they would merit consideration for the CFP. However, to my knowledge, ND is NOT eligible for the ACC CCG. Part of the rationale may be - "they only play five (5) ACC games per season". I'm not sure - but, AFAIK - they have not played in an ACC CCG - and, are not eligible for this, or future, season's ACC CCG.
Their not being eligible for - or playing in - a CCG - automatically reduces the total number of games they may play in by one. And, by its nature - CCG's will have two "better / stronger teams" play each other. It's not like scheduling an FCS team in late November - or even a team like Middle Tennessee State in September.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:51 PM ^
That’s correct. ND plays one fewer game than any conference champion, so it’s only fair that they can’t get a bye.
ND did play in the ACC title game once: during the Covid season, when they were temporarily an ACC member.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
For 2024-25, you need unanimous consent in order to change the 6+6 format ...... and there's no reason at all for any of the non-Power conferences to agree with that.
So 6+6 it will almost surely remain.
BUT ...... come 2026. Will it go to a 5+7 format, or is it strict Top 12? That, in my opinion, is the real interesting question. I expect the B1G and SEC to be strongly pushing for the latter. Obviously the non-Power conferences would want 5+7. The ACC and Big XII will likely be the swing votes. They'd probably prefer 5+7 but the B1G and SEC could threaten to poach them if they don't vote with them. Good old CFB power struggles and politics likely await.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
I would love to see a 2 team Pac2 battle it out for a playoff spot next year. OSU vs WSU would be quite a game. I would alternately love to see the Pac2 use their playoff status to recruit or force a merger with other west coast teams under the Pac12 brand. I would hate to see the Pac12 go away altogether.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
What do you think of WSU and OSU playing each other for nine consecutive weeks. The conference winner would be - the team that won five (or more) games in the series.
Before the season - they can flip a coin to determine which team is "home" for the first game - alternating locations week to week.
This would be a nine game conference season - all nine games against a P5 opponent - granted, there's no CCG - but, it could be added if necessary.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
I'm not sure how they fill out their schedule (they're currently missing 8 games apiece) --- but if they can, WSU & OSU definitely should go with the Pac-2 approach for 2024-25.
This also buys them time for 2026 onwards. I don't think a full-merger with the MWC is best --- there's too much "dead weight" over there. But if they can carve off the top of the MWC (pick 6-8 from Boise, Fresno, SDSU, CSU, AFA, UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico & Hawaii), that's a viable conference IMO, which would regularly compete for an automatic bid in a 5+7 format.
September 28th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
That's why they're proposing relegation.
If they joined with the MWC, they could split into PAC version & MWC version and use promotion/relegation between the two.
September 28th, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
True.
I'm not sold that relegation will work as well as its proponents think. But at this point it's all theoretical --- it would be fascinating to have some empirical data points.
September 28th, 2023 at 7:30 PM ^
I think the idea is that relegation would work to salvage the Pac conference and be only for those Pac/MWC teams, not that it would be used in other conferences across the country.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
Can’t wait for the first time a coach sits his starters during rivalry week.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Yeah, I personally don't think this is ultimately going to work. I think Playoff expansion is essentially a step toward Playoff elimination.
College football is doing things right now to try to put lipstick on a pig. I always wondered why there was initial opposition to both the BCS and the Playoff. I now understand why there was. There is simply no good way to do this. Now with these super-conferences, there are going to be numerous teams in each conference that never even play each other, and what is the point of conference championship games? There isn't even a point to them now, what is going to be the point next year? And they are still purportedly going to have bowls? Why?
My guess is that eventually the super-conferences will only play inter-conference opponents, and each individual "pod" of fans will have little interest in what is happening in other conferences.
I just don't think this is going to work and that when the dust is settled 10-15 years from now the product is going to be completely different.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
330 - I strongly agree. This has been cannibalization - and, it's going to continue. A few quick perspectives, if I may.
First, the odds are - the two teams from a P5 (or P4) CCG are going to make the CFP - and, one of those will be a CCG loser.
Second, this will essentially destroy the remaining bowl culture. Think of the December / New Year's matchups that will be forced "one rung lower" on the ladder - because of CFP participation. My guess is - more bowls will look for teams with 5-7 records to participate because the number of 6-6 (or better) teams won't be met.
Third, conference championships will struggle to be "definitive" - and, have subjectivity applied. If you're a 16 or 18 team conference - that plays in "pods" not divisions - how are the two best teams determined? Is it on the field? No, it's probably going to be a subjective vote by AD's.
Fourth - the "powers that be" - IMO, messed up when they went to 12 teams. The number should have been eight (8). Those 8 could have been - P5 champs and one G5 champ - plus two (2) At-Large teams. Let the conferences determine their champions as they wish - and, the CFP only has two things to do - first, determine which G5 champ is most deserving and second, who are the two teams determined to be "At-Large" invitees.
I disagree with seeding in principle. My rationale is - it's completely subjective. No team in the playoff should be given a "bye" into the next round.
Pandora's Box is open - I'm not happy about it - and, there's nothing you can do about it.
This reminds me of a scene from Goodfellas - the "good old days" of college football resemble "Tommy" in that classic. Here's a less than three minute scene which desribes (IMO) the fate of college football. Fans like you and me - have not option but to "take it". https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=569170401&rlz=1C1GCEU_enUS819US819&sxsrf=AM9HkKlEtBUC-dOjvReuh8GJsxHv65wAWA:1695919458983&q=nothing+you+can+do+about+it+goodfellas&tbm=vid&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwibi66n4M2BAxV_mokEHXtDDKoQ0pQJegQICxAB&biw=1091&bih=728&dpr=1#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:90612d0a,vid:BIH6STTzwrQ,st:0
September 28th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
One way to partially salvage part of this might be to pair each playoff game with a bowl game in the same stadium or city within a day or two of each other, with the bowl game including teams that had been defeated in the playoff games, which would allow fans and programs to make plans win or lose in the previous playoff round.
September 28th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
I always wondered why there was initial opposition to both the BCS and the Playoff.
Yes, sorry to say, some of us could see it coming. Flawed as it was, the bowl system was unique to college and guaranteed a satisfying end to the season for at least dozens of programs and their fans. Going to a championship game/playoff system system inevitably has brought all kinds of unintended (though some predictable) consequences that are not better for the game as a whole, or the player and fan experience of it.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
I can't see that happening with a 1st round bye, playoff home game or playoff spot on the line. No matter what one of those things is on the table at the end of the year
September 28th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
Well, the top 4 conference champs get a bye. I would think that an undefeated UGA losing in the final week to Georgia Tech would still be a top 4 conference champion, especially if the voters don’t punish the team for resting their top players.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
Anyone else surprised to learn that the G5 get any CFP revenue at all? I always assumed the participating schools and maybe their conferences split the revenue.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
It seems the current split is 80 / 20. The P5 conferences get the 80% and the G5 conferences get the remaining 20%.
Will the future landscape be P4 / G5 - and very large conferences? It seems most conferences are growing with the number of teams in the P4 conferences growing.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
It's important politically to give all FBS-member schools some revenue.
If you recall back to the late 2000s and early 2010s, various Utah, Texas and Idaho politicians threatened to sue the BCS and explore whether it was an anti-competitive trust --- that in the aftermath of Utah, TCU and Boise State (how "coincidental", schools from their state!) getting a bit of the short end from the BCS in various years.
None of the more powerful schools and conferences want Congress poking around. So, you effectively buy the smaller schools off. The smaller conferences have lesser revenue and a lesser seat at the table versus everyone else. But they are still at the table.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
The P5 & G5 nomenclature is unhelpful for the sport. Would be best to not separate conferences based on these identifiers.
The Big East would have been considered a P6...until it wasn't. The Big XII will be more like a glorified AAC, having no major brands; certainly not on the same level as B1G/SEC.
Each conference should establish/earn its identity on its own. Not all G5 conferences are the same. The categorization is hurtful.
They should determine X number of conference champs in the CFP and stick with it...X should not change based on certain conferences getting worse or going away, nor other conferences increasing in value/strength.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Agree. Either you are an FBS school or you're not. The NCAA tournament in basketball doesn't distinguish between power and non-power conferences.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
I think the 12 team playoff, combined with realignment, has already started to change the way I watch college football. I've always watched just B1G games, and I'd try to watch them all eventually unless I got spoiled. But now, I can usually find some game between two ranked teams, and the fact that either of those teams has a chance to make the playoffs makes it more interesting. And the B1G going to 18 makes the idea of watching all of them difficult and not worthwhile. I know the 12 team playoff and 18 teams in the B1G hasn't even happened yet, but I've already started watching as if it has.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
So wait, does this mean that, for the next couple years, if WSU and The (other) OSU can figure a way to reconstitute the Pac 12 (probably via the Mountain West), they have a very good chance at the playoff?
Because so long as the format remains at 6/6, the champions of two of the following leagues are going to make it: Zombie Pac 12/Mountain West, CAA, Conference USA, Sun Belt, MAC.
It will be hilarious to both see the potential for playoff MACion, and the annoyance of fans of the 4th place team in the Big Ten/SEC, second place team in the ACC/Big 12 that gets left out (so long as it's not Michigan).
September 28th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
"ADs meet and decide to do nothing" sounds about right.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
The part I think they’ll have to change sooner rather than later will be having 2nd round playoff games on campus in addition to the 1st round games. As it stands, many teams will be asking their fans to attend a neutral site conference title game, a 2nd round neutral site game, a semifinal neutral site game, and championship neutral site game all within 2 months. There will be a lot of fatigue from teams that regularly make the playoff of attending all those neutral site games. It’s also a bit weird that the 4 teams with byes don’t get to host a home playoff game.
The easiest way to solve this is to get rid of conference title games and to have all playoff games on campus besides the title game but TV networks/conferences won’t let that happen for the former and the bowl committees are going to use their waning influence to prevent the latter for as long as they can.
September 28th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
I think so long as "conference champion" is a determining point for both qualification and seeding in the playoff, you need a championship game because there are going to be so many situations where teams don't play each other. (Add in tv contracts that have obligated conferences to hold title games as well). Even then, there are going to be a ton of complicated and annoying tie-breakers given divisionless conferences where teams play barely more than half of the other teams in the conference.
You're totally right that the possibility of four neutral site games in a row is going to basically kill the best thing about college football, ie the local traditions associated with home games, in the games that supposedly matter most. That's one of those cases where the people in charge and fans don't share fundamental understandings of what makes college football interesting.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
Needs and BTB - I agree with your points - and, it seems that "fatigue" has already shown itself with a program or two - specifically, Bama. Bama fans were complaining that they wouldn't go to the SEC CCG or CFP semi-final because of the cost - since they were "saving their money" for the national championship game.
I think with the 12 team CFP format effective next season - a team who "gets in" but is not a Top 4 seed - and, reached the final - could wind up playing 17 games - 12 game regular season - plus CCG - plus rounds of "12, 8, 4, and 2" (four playoff games).
I'm a Michigan season ticket holder - and, have been to Indy. Though I'd prefer that Michigan be a Top 4 seed in the '24 CFP as the B1G Champion, the thought of a trip to Michigan Stadium for a December home game in the round of 8 would seem to be a lot of fun.
As an aside, I'm just thinking of the logistics associated with travel, etc. - for those "non campus" games in the playoff. How much notice will there be from one round to the next? One week? That's not easy to do. One example (in historical terms) was the Rose Bowl - in the "old days", you knew before Thanksgiving whether to make plans for Pasadena on New Year's Day.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Agree.
And it would suck for fans of the four teams that get byes to not get a home game just because they won their conferences (at a neutral site, btw).
September 28th, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
As it stands, many teams will be asking their fans to attend a neutral site conference title game, a 2nd round neutral site game, a semifinal neutral site game, and championship neutral site game all within 2 months.
It wouldn't shock me if some of these neutral playoff games didn't sell out as a consequence.
Play them on campus, otoh, and they are absolutely guaranteed to sell out (and have an amazing atmosphere to boot).
September 28th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
There are comments about the 12 team playoff structure and travel, etc. This lists the CFP format and dates for the next two seasons.
2024 Season
- First Round (On-Campus)
- Friday, December 20, 2024: One Game (evening)
- Saturday, December 21, 2024: Three Games (early afternoon, late afternoon and evening)
- Tuesday, December 31, 2024: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (evening)
- Wednesday, January 1, 2025: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (early afternoon), Rose Bowl Game (late afternoon) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (evening)
- Thursday, January 9, 2025: Capital One Orange Bowl (evening)
- Friday, January 10, 2025: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (evening)
- Monday, January 20, 2025: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
2025 Season
- First Round (On-Campus)
- Friday, December 19, 2025: One Game (evening)
- Saturday, December 20, 2025: Three Games (early afternoon, late afternoon and evening)
- Wednesday, December 31, 2025: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (evening)
- Thursday, January 1, 2026: Capital One Orange Bowl (early afternoon), Rose Bowl Game (late afternoon) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (evening)
- Thursday, January 8, 2026: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (evening)
- Friday, January 9, 2026: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (evening)
- Monday, January 19, 2026: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
And, I just realized something. In both of those two seasons - five of the seven games - quarterfinals, semifinals, and final - will be played in the SEC footprint. The only two games that won't be are - the Rose and Fiesta Bowls - that's it. I'm sure it's just a coincidence and not intended to provide any kind of home field advantage.
September 28th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Good info. Has it been announced whether the Rose and Sugar Bowls will rotate into the semifinals or are they sticking to their traditional NYD slots?
September 28th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Great question - especially regarding the Rose Bowl and any rotation. The folks in Pasadena - well, it means a lot to them - and, depending on the day of the week - it's January 1st or 2nd - period.
I'm sure the Rose Bowl would like to be in the conversation as a "destination" for the NC game - so, maybe they'll play two games in Pasadena in a given season - however, I doubt any of the other six bowls would give up their spot for a season so there can be two games in the Rose Bowl.
Oh - maybe there's one way that happens - UCLA makes it - and hosts a playoff game.
September 28th, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^
Either way, there is no way fans of a team are going to travel to all of those games. "Just going to scoot out here to Arizona, then come home, jet down to Texas, come back, and the head down a week later to Atlanta!" By the time of the national title game they are going to be selling tickets to locals with no rooting interest for $25.
And frankly there may be little chance that big stars play in all of those games. To win a national championship, Michigan would have to play Ohio State twice in a row, and then possibly play 3 games after that? 16 games? To even have a shot, if they were going to do 12 teams, they would have to reduce the number of games that teams are playing during the regular season, but they can't because conferences are expanding to like 20 teams.
Yeah, this thing is pretty much doomed I think. I really hope Michigan can win the national title this year because it is going to get really really weird after this.
I wish the Rose Bowl would just opt out and host the BIG title game.
September 28th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
The Rose Bowl is cool and all but no, I don't want to disadvantage the non-West Coast teams in the league by having them travel all that way for the BTCG.
September 28th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
Perhaps have the B1G CCG in the Rose Bowl once every five or six years.
Though, I must admit -I like Indy - a LOT - as the location of the CCG. It's a fairly easy road trip and, could be done with "one night away". Drive up Saturday morning - enjoy the area - go to the game - have breakfast on Sunday morning and drive home. It's faster to get to than Ann Arbor ( from Chicago).