Just looking at the schedule I would have to say the tiger's will win the AL Central.
OT: Buckle up! Tigers & White Sox tied for first with 8 games left.
The Tigers will win the Division. They have the experience and the better starting pitching. Plus a easier schedule.
Side bar: Here is a list of Triple Crown winners in baseball history: Pretty elite group.
Rogers Hornsby's Triple Crowns in '22 and '25 are off the charts
|Year Lg||Player||Team/(BA, HR, RBI)|
|1967 AL||Carl Yastrzemski||BOS .326, 44 HR, 121 RBI|
|1966 AL||Frank Robinson||BAL .316, 49 HR, 122 RBI|
|1956 AL||Mickey Mantle||NYY .353, 52 HR, 130 RBI|
|1947 AL||Ted Williams||BOS .343, 32 HR, 114 RBI|
|1942 AL||Ted Williams||BOS .356, 36 HR, 137 RBI|
|1937 NL||Joe Medwick||STL .374, 31 HR, 154 RBI|
|1934 AL||Lou Gehrig||NYY .363, 49 HR, 165 RBI|
|1933 AL||Jimmie Foxx||PHA .356, 48 HR, 163 RBI|
|1933 NL||Chuck Klein||PHI .368, 28 HR, 120 RBI|
|1925 NL||Rogers Hornsby||STL .403, 39 HR, 143 RBI|
|1922 NL||Rogers Hornsby||STL .401, 42 HR, 152 RBI|
|1909 AL||Ty Cobb||DET .377, 9 HR, 107 RBI|
|1901 AL||Nap Lajoie||PHA .426, 14 HR, 125 RBI|
|1887 AA||Tip O'Neill||STL .435, 14 HR, 123 RBI|
|1878 NL||Paul Hines||PRO .358, 4 HR, 50 RB|
Definitely have to go with the Tigers based on teams they are playing. However the tigers are not very good on the road and having to close out the season with 6 away scares me. Heres to hoping Cleveland and Tampa get hot!
Great now the Tigers can finally sit back and coast to the playoffs.
Come onnnn David Price/Fernando Rodney Uber Allies!
Somehow I think the Tigers will find a way to get swept by the White Sox despite not actually playing the White Sox. I can feel it.
the Tigers and Sox being tied with 8 games to go have to do with recruits?
I had the same thought when I saw buckle up in the title.
who was a very strong Michigan football recruit before settling on a career in baseball...
(That's the best KC Royals-to-Michigan football recruiting segue' I could come up with.)
I've have had enough disappointment already, one of my teams has to start winning.
I sit down to watch the game on my dvr and catch up on today's Michigan news and now the game is spoiled. I know you are excited but please don't post results of non-Michigan related games.
Sanchize pitches a complete game gem and Cabrera goes hitless.
now I can watch the game in triple speed and go to bed early.
Boom! Plus Bruce Willis was a ghost, and Dumbledore dies.
Verbal is Keyser Soze
It turns out Mario dreamt the whole thing, too.
And Rosebud is the sled.
The Planet of the Apes was Earth
King Kong falls off the Empire State Building to his death (my wife didn't know that one and cried her eyes out when we saw the Peter Jackson remake)
I see spoilers all around me.
dvr's baseball games?
Who DVRs any game and then clicks on a thread discussing said game.
Or even goes on the internet where they might casually come across the result. Seriously, this time of year the "OT" tag means "Tigers" about 60% of the time.
To answer the above questions. I can watch a game in little more than an hour and not miss anything. I have better ways to spend my time than watching the same five commercials between innings or during each pitching change.
You could say that about football too. Those are built in breaks to take the dog out, grab a beer and make food.
I feel like I need those breaks because it is a much more intense viewing experience. Furthermore, I can watch other games during the breaks; unless it's the playoffs, I'm not watching a game that does not include the Tigers.
Well I had thrown in the towel after the loss to the Sox last Monday so I really don't know what to think still. Getting swept in a double header by the Twins, then coming back and looking impressive in their final home series of the year.
With Anibal pitching like the way he has the Tigers rotation is very, very impressive, we're going to need Cleveland to hit a lefty tomorrow in Santiago so that should be a game the Sox win. Just keeping winning games and you'll put yourself in a position you want to be in.
Scherzer is a big question mark. It almost worries me that Fister and Sanchez pitched complete games in their last outings, both have been a bit inconsistent
Max's velocity was noticably down during his first start since the injury, which is understandable but he also had the change/slider working nicely so I'm hoping he can regain his 2nd half Cy Young form, and Sanchez over his last 5-6 starts has been very very solid, he seems to be coming into his own as a Tiger.
The bats still aren't doing nearly as much as they should and Jhonny has basically gone 0-Septemeber, he has been abysmal. Pitching is going to need to continue to be strong if we want to get deep in the playoffs, let alone get there, so Eat em Up!
Schedule seems to favor Tigers, but the White Sox did sweep the Rays in May so there might not be an advantage there...
Dem royals are a pesky bunch. Look out.
OP, so if the Tigers don't win, you're willing to give up your mgopoints?
We'll probably find a way to fuck up the last series against KC like we did in '06, but there won't be a Wild Card to fall back when/if we do. Damn Billy Butler and Bruce Chen make a living out of playing Detroit.
He's in a bit of a micro-slump these last couple games, Trout is libel to catch him in BA and Hamilton is back hitting HRs. That situation is going to come down to the wire, too ... it's going to be way more fun that we ever expected from a bunch of games against the Twins and Royals. I have faith in the big guy ... and nice vertical at third tonight.
really appreciate this update. As a guy who used to watch the Tigers in his grandma's Royal Oak living room on a black and white set and who has never had any other team (but only checks into baseball once in a blue moon), I really appreciate it. Perfect way to fill the lull between Michigan games too, no?
cock tease. I'm not getting suckered in.
Too late. If you are posting in a Tiger thread at 11:00 at night, you are already suckered in.
Sweet dreams of a Tiger parade down Woodward in late October/early November
Jim Leyland will be Grand Marshall of the Thanksgiving day parade, receiving a hero's welcome as he sits atop the Marlboro float.
(EDIT) Whoever marked this flame bait, Fuck off..Go Tigers!
their road performance has killed them all season. i'm already emotionally prepared for the choke job.
But I'm right there with ya.
I would say, "Oh, competing for first team to lose out in the psot season", but the 2006 Cardinals won it all, so...
I'll get to seem them for at least 1 game in KC! Hopefully, Tampa bay helps us out! On paper we have the easier schedule, but I thought that a few years back when all we had to do was to win our last game to win the division!
Why isn't Chris Sale starting in the next 7 games?
As of this morning -
After planning to give the prized left-hander an extra day off, the Sox changed their minds and will keep him on four days' rest with an outing Saturday against the Rays.
I'm rooting for the Tigers but their thing this year is going out and losing a couple games right after they have tied the White Sox in the division. If they could finally get over the hump, I'd really appreciate it. But the way they have been playing this year, I fear the season will end with them one game behind.
I'm a Sox fan and I've been waiting for the Tigers to pass us for quite some time. I thought the post All Star break surge would result in them cruising to the division title. Of course, both teams have played shitty enough that I can now look forward to being "that close."
On the positive side, I was worried that the Sox would slip down in the division with a manager that had never managed a single game. I have been quite happy with their performance for most of the season.
I'm also a Tigers fan, but I feel like they are going to slip on what should be some easy games. The Tigers have the more favorable schedule, especially when looking at the starting pitcher match-ups for both teams, but the Tigers haven't had much urgency since the last tie during the series with the Sox. I think it comes down to which team get more fired up for the last eight games, and I don't think it will be the Tigers. I hope I'm wrong.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will come down to who plays better baseball for the last eight games. Pretty sure neither team will have a hard time getting fired up.
Simply based on the schedule, you'd have to say the Tigers have the edge. But then you look at the fact that we dropped 2 out of 3 against Minnesota at home last weekend and KC is always an annoying team to play, and that makes it too close to call. Obviously, I want the Tigers to win it, but I'm not making any predictions. That will make it easier to cope with if we don't win it. I hope.
Simply based on the schedule, you'd have to say the Tigers have the edge.
I'm not so sure about that. I created a chart that shows how the two teams have fared versus their remaining opponents over the season and over the last 6 games.
|TIGERS VS||W||L||LAST 6|
I would be nervous as a Tigers fan that they are only 0.500 versus those teams in recent history.
|WHITE SOX VS||W||L||LAST 6|
I'm nervous as a White Sox fan that they will split with the Rays at best and do the same versus the Indians. My guess is that the Sox go 0.500 to finish the season and miss the playoffs by a game.
I thought about this a little in a meeting after I read your post because it was also my thought that the Sox would split with the Rays in this upcoming series, then I built that into my own calculations:
- The Tigers are 8-3 agains the Royals (per your chart) and 8-7 agains the Twins. This corresponds to a 0.727 winning percentage agains the Royals, estimating a 4-1 performance in the final games against them. For the Twins, we have a 0.533 winning percentage, so if this is a predictive factor, this series is a bit of a toss up, but I rounded up to say we could go 2-1 here.
- Assuming the Sox split the Rays series (which is likely, based on matchups, I think), then that is 2-2 right there, which I combined with the 0.643 winning percentage against Cleveland, estimating a 3-1 performance against them.
Since both teams are 82-72 with eight games left, the estimate is a 6-2 performance for Detroit and a 5-3 performance for Chicago. Detroit would be up by a game.
Sort of QED. Hopefully, I am right, being a Tigers fan.
I think it will probably go down exactly how you described it.
This is the start to the 2012 Detroit Tigers run to a world championship. Cabby for MVP, Scherzer for Cy Young. Nothing can stop us now.
WOO!! BRAVES CLINCHED A PLAYOFF SPOT! Still technically in it for the NL East, but unlikely. Washington does has a tougher slate to finish out the season (2 @ Philly, 3 @ St Louis, 3 vs. Philly) compared to the Braves (2 vs Miami, 3 vs Mets, 3 @ Pittsburgh), but the wild card is wrapped up.
As for ChiSox and Tigers, amazing how neither team is pulling away. They've both definitely had their struggles down the stretch. Based on recent performance and remaining schedules, it's maybe Tigers by a hair, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see a one-game playoff.
Yeah we're not gonna catch the Nats, although it'd be a nice little reversal of fortunes after last year's debacle. Assuming we can win the WC game (a big assumption I know), who'd you rather get in the NLDS, Nats or Reds?
What happens if they end up tied? Does the new wild card format change anything? (used to be a one game playoff to break ties)
I imagine they'll play a one game playoff if they end the regular season tied.
The tigers won the season series with the sox. I believe that's the first tie breaker. So technically, right now, we're in first place.
I don't think it works that way. Remember, the Tigers and Twins played a one-game playoff in 2009. I don't know who won the season series that year, but I don't think it was tied, since I believe teams play 19 games a year against intradivision teams.
It was changed after that year to head to head win-loss for determining home field for a one game playoff. It used to be a coin flip... Literally
win AL central
All the advanced stats sort of pale in comparison to the fact that nobody has won the triple crown since 1967. If Miggy pulls it off, he should win the MVP.
Unfortunately, i've just never gotten that "it" feeling from this Tigers club this year. Verlander says they play best with their backs against the wall, but it seems like that makeup game with Chicago and the Minnesota double header were backs against the wall kind of games.
So i'm hoping, i just don't like the feeling of traveling to KC and Minny with an offense that will put up 12 runs one day and then 1-3 in the next four games.
Adv. stats are great but Cabrera, even if he doesn't quite get the trip crown, is having a rare and awesome year. Nobody has been this close in a long time.
And to the players themselves, the triple crown stats are what matters. There's not that much prestige attached to winning the OPS title.
Stats are cute and all, but doesn't josh willingham lead trout in two of the three? Batting average is only a subset of your at bats and even for those it only measures how many times you reach first base. Rbis as a raw figure lack context. Someone like trout isn't going to drive in a ton of runs as a leadoff man. In fact, he actually drives in about the same percentage of base runners as Miggy does. He will, however, score a ton of runs with his game being the way it is. Who decided driving them in was more important than being the guy scoring them? Home runs I will concede as a good measure as far as the triple crown go. The other two are relatively meaningless and often misleading when figuring out who the best players are.
Can we go one baseball thread without re-re-re-hashing the validity of certain stats?
I think the tigers are going to win the central. I base this on my tiger fanhood and nohing else
I think the point was more that, regardless of how valid advanced sabermetrics may be, it's the traditional stats that the players focus on.
Runs scored is a pretty major traditional statistic, and if Trout wins the MVP much of ther reason will be those and stolen bases. It was decided that for offensive production ranking that RBIs are more important than runs because you can score a run any time you get on base, be it HBP, a single/double/triple/HR, or a walk. Leadoff batters tend to score runs because they tend to be leadoff batters because they tend to be good at getting on base.
What's interesting about these "cute" triple crown stats is that baseball is a game where history can be relatively well compared to the present based on the traditional stats. 1967 was the last time someone led all three triple crown stats at the end of the year. Does that make Cabrerra the best player in the game? No, but it puts him in some rarified baseball air. The MVP isn't a statistical award in that it's not a simple formula. Cabrerra will win the MVP over Trout if he gets the triple crown because it's such a rare feat, and because like the name says, it's "most valuable" not "best".
Also, RBI's do have context. Look at Cabrerra's BA and OBP for it. A power hitter can have great RBI numbers and shite BA and OBP numbers. A great hitter will have high numbers in all three catagories and a really great hitter will hit a bunch of HRs to multiple fields.
Should we award the MVP based on the rarity of ones acheivement or the value of their play?
leading the league in BA, HR, and RBI makes one pretty damned valuable. Realistically, this year could go either to Cabrerra or Trout and there are very good arguments for both. But given that one is a rookie and the other (if he achieves it) will stack an achievement not done since '67 onto an already impressive resume tilts the decision in Cabrerra's favor.
A guy isn't going to win the MVP based on hitting for the cycle ten times in a season just because it's really rare. The triple crown isn't special because it's rare; it's rare because it's really hard to pull off. Even the juicers never managed it.
Just to clarify, you're saying that experience, and previous seasons (resume), two things that have no impact on a players value whatsoever, somehow play a role in who is the more valuable player?
As far as rarity of acheievements go, it's not hard to select random criteria and make anybodys acheievements, even bad ones, into something rare.
Trout is the first the player since Ty Cobb in 1907 to post an OPS+ over 165 as a 20 year old, that's far rarer than Cabrera being the 12th player to win the Triple Crown.
The rarity of achievements, the age and experience of the players, and past seasons have no impact whatsoever on the value those players provide.
Cabrera has a slight edge with the bat, and yes it is slight, while Trout has a large edge in baserunning, negating Cabreras excess value with the bat. They're pretty much even on the offensive side of the ball, and Trout plays GG defense while Cabrera plays below average. Trout has been more valuable as a player than Cabrera.
That said, I hope to see Cabrera win the triple crown, and would be pleased to see him win the MVP as well.
I'm going to say that the Tigers drop 6 out of their last 8 but win the pennant as the Sox lose 7 of their last 8.
If Detroit doesn't gack away any of those games, I see them winning 6 of the next 8 (because they'll probably lose at least once against KC and Minny). I don't see Chicago being able to do any better, so hopefully this will end with the division title everyone expected.
If that happens then that means they go 11-5 since they lost to the Sox on the 17th and fell 3 games back, which is the record that most were predicting the Tigers would need to win the division.
I hope it happens, but I'll feel a lot better if Porcello wins tonight. They really need to finish off this homestand with a sweep of the Royals and put themselves in a position where they probably don't have to sweep either of their road series.