OT: 2023 #1 overall recruit, USC QB Malachi Nelson commits to Boise State as transfer
https://twitter.com/Malachi/status/1743800396542521611
https://247sports.com/player/malachi-nelson-46086657/
I am a Boise fan secondarily, so I'm very hyped about this, combined with keeping their extremely talented RB Ashton Jeanty from the grasp of Texas. Even if I weren't a Boise fan, I like this a lot more than going to Miami or A&M or something.
From a Michigan perspective, there are still QBs available and more becoming available every day, if JJ were to leave after winning a national title Monday evening.
Beat the Huskies, Go Blue!
January 6th, 2024 at 8:49 PM ^
My ESPN notification claimed him as the former #1 overall recruit, but that isn't consensus. High 5 star regardless.
January 6th, 2024 at 8:50 PM ^
Instant PAC-12 favorites.
January 6th, 2024 at 8:56 PM ^
WAC-12?
January 6th, 2024 at 8:50 PM ^
Well that was unexpected
January 6th, 2024 at 8:52 PM ^
I’ve never been so comfortable w UM recruiting. Yeah via paper and media and whatnot…not impressive. But seems like Michigan is already ahead of the NIL curve in a sense. These blue chips w NIL are a different ballgame than even 2 years ago.
January 6th, 2024 at 10:08 PM ^
I'm on the fence. It's understandable to be excited about how things are going right now, but we currently have a 5* QB and 5* CB who are anchoring the offense and defense. Maybe we truly don't need high end 5* guys to compete down the road, but we definitely needed JJ and Will to get where we are this season.
January 6th, 2024 at 11:02 PM ^
I believe the point was not that Michigan doesn't need the pre-NIL 5* they already have - it's that handing all this $ to teenagers does not mean you'll ever get a down of football out of them.
With unlimited, immediate eligibility transfers currently permitted, there will be many others who will bolt with their money in hand for what looks like a better offer - or easier path.
The comments in the Bryce Underwood commitment thread are full of arguments about the wisdom of throwing $ at HS kids vs the sustainability of not doing it.
Where Michigan stands is pretty clear. So I guess we'll see!
January 6th, 2024 at 11:06 PM ^
Yes and the fact that we have HIT on basically all of our 5*s in recent memory. Maybe Hinton was a bit underwhelming based on recruiting but he still was a solid starter. Dax, Will, Edwards in a sense at least.
The biggest though is that we have a 5* QB and we hit on the 5* QB. JJ is the only 5* from his class still at the school he committed to out of HS. I guess since it seems that we won’t budge on the NIL for HS recruits, the hope is that we can find the right fits (as we have) in the portal to fill some HS recruiting gaps. But…I know that I’ll probably contradict this in the Texas Game Thread next year, but if we win on Monday, I’m willing to sit back a bit more over the next year or two and let things fall into line. Now, if we are able to bring JJ back and maybe add a receiver or two and we bring back 2 of Stewart, McGregor, or Harrell…I’m going to be thinking we could repeat.
January 6th, 2024 at 9:00 PM ^
Surprised he would come to USC, sit behind Williams, then leave at the same time as him with the USC QB position up for grabs.
January 6th, 2024 at 9:32 PM ^
He got passed by Miller Moss by a pretty good margin and probably didn't feel good about his chances against Moss.
January 6th, 2024 at 10:56 PM ^
so ... he uh ...got Mossed?
sorry
not that sorry tho
January 6th, 2024 at 11:00 PM ^
That is pretty mossed up!
January 6th, 2024 at 9:11 PM ^
JJ is staying. Even after we win.
January 6th, 2024 at 9:36 PM ^
I'd say you're probably right. There's no way the coaches are just winging it and waiting for JJ to "make up him mind". That's just press conference BS -- especially given that there's no clear JJ replacement on the roster. I guarantee you they're pretty sure he's coming back. Otherwise you'd be hearing about transfer candidates waiting in the wings. Michigan wouldn't wait till next week to start talking to potential replacements.
January 6th, 2024 at 9:50 PM ^
One other big difference that weighs in the favor of JJ, staying is that JJ, and really, JJ‘s family, doesn’t need the money. Many of our favorite players come from distressed, economic backgrounds. JJ‘s family is fairly well to do. It probably removes a significant level of desperation or “I only got one shot “motivation
January 6th, 2024 at 10:04 PM ^
Not to mention J.J. is making good NIL money at Michigan. I think it's in-between $800,000-$900,000.
January 6th, 2024 at 11:10 PM ^
One really does wonder what the *return* is for so many of these NIL "deals" around cfb. Some are more obvious (e.g. Dr. Pepper sales from cfb commercials), but so much of this NIL is just facade for boosters paying to bring in (or keep) players... for little to no actual monetary benefit.
January 7th, 2024 at 2:32 AM ^
I don't think Chris Hinton was hurting. Just sayin...
With NIL, anyone but the top 15 or so picks in the draft can do relatively closely to as well staying in school. JJ might play himself into the top 15 if he needs to match Penix in a shootout and does so.
So the real difference maker for some players' decision will be how much they value & enjoy the college experience.
What a crazy twist on the 1st 2 decades of this century would it be if Michigan is the 1 school getting this NIL thing right?!
Create a great, team first environment, while compensating players more to stay than to sign. No jealousies, no bailing if they don't get immediate PT, or seeking a bigger bag elsewhere.
I mean, what if...?!
January 7th, 2024 at 10:52 AM ^
You're correct to some degree about being able to get close to NFL money with NIL if you compare the NIL to the average NFL money over the life of a rookie contract.
Let's examine contracts for someone in a middle of the draft. The first pick of the fourth round will sign a contract worth approximately $4.7 million and receive a signing bonus of approximately $887k.
If that player sticks in the NFL, they get something like, $1.8M year 1 and $1M / year for the remaining years of their rookie contract. They could get in that average annual ballpark with NIL, but that is only for one year not four. Also, they are further from they second NFL contract where the real $ are.
The financial reason this player would stay in college is that they believe they can up their draft status. But the risk is that the lower their draft status through decreased performance or injury.
January 7th, 2024 at 2:02 PM ^
So I was way off in my guess of how much guaranteed $ picks get! If you're projected as any slot 1st rounder you should probably go.
But the reality for all rounds below 1 is, for the majority of players that bonus is the only guaranteed $ they ever get.
Your more accurate figures about rookie wage scale have only made me more adamant that resources should be applied to retaining players over signing them!
This is not a blanket statement - there are Michigan "leans" out there that just can't say no to the upfront $ but really want to play for Michigan. Those players should be offered something (likely not their highest offer, but something to show they're valued).
I think that still doesn't get you Bryce Underwood, but would get you maybe Aaron Scott or some others that were strong leans 🤷♂️
January 6th, 2024 at 9:50 PM ^
I do believe JJ hasn't made a decision. And our coaches certainly aren't winging it, but it's tough to recruit QB transfers when JJ's future is uncertain. Rightfully, they're not coming to Michigan to risk JJ coming back and sitting behind. Our timing just happens to be bad for QB transfers.
January 6th, 2024 at 9:33 PM ^
More proof that landing 5-star QBs out of HS is no longer essential.
January 6th, 2024 at 9:49 PM ^
Except for the 5 star that’s going to be under center on Monday which we landed out of high school.
January 6th, 2024 at 10:03 PM ^
That was pre-NIL/transfer. It's all different now.
Also, he was largely a 4-star.
January 6th, 2024 at 10:29 PM ^
Maybe if you're Oregon/Washington/FSU, but UMs philosophy isnt appealing to every major QB recruit, and even less so to transfers looking to kickstart a fledgling career and be the focal point somewhere.
Maalik Murphy, for example, couldve come to Michigan with three years of eligibility and had the inside track to a starting job at least in 2025, but he went to Duke so they could build an offense around him.
Michigan will *never* do that for a transfer.
January 6th, 2024 at 9:49 PM ^
Miami bags <<< Boise bags
See you in the portal in a year
January 6th, 2024 at 10:02 PM ^
This feels like one of those situations where the player goes to a good but not playoff contending team because he doesn't have to compete with other good quarterbacks for the starting job. Just seems strange a year removed from being a top 5 high school player in the country he commits to Boise State.
January 7th, 2024 at 10:56 AM ^
From a pure financial viewpoint, he should look for the opportunity that will result in his highest NFL draft status. I know nothing about his personal financial situation, but a lot of these kids are coming out of HS without much. It is hard to look down the road 3 years, when there is a brass ring to grab a hold of now.
January 7th, 2024 at 2:48 PM ^
Boise has a returning QB with decent recruiting rankings who looked very good as a freshman. He won't be favored over Nelson but to classify this as him running or something just because he didn't take the route everyone else does seems extremely unfair, and frankly kind of dumb. An uber 5 star is not scared of whatever Miami has right now, lol.
January 7th, 2024 at 3:37 PM ^
Is Boise's returning quarterback as heralded as Nelson? I am willing to bet the answer is NO. His easiest path to start without the serious competition is heading to Boise State over other programs where he has a better chance of winning and getting the NFL attention. Miami's record is no dofferent than Boise State's, but with a stronger strength of schedule. While Miami doesn't have elite quarterbacks, they have more talent at the quarterback room than Boise State does. But, you gave the example of Miami, what about the others?
January 6th, 2024 at 10:38 PM ^
Let's roll with our roster and Davis...
January 6th, 2024 at 10:51 PM ^
I am calling it now. JJ will return to Michigan for his senior season.
January 6th, 2024 at 11:03 PM ^
Amongst all the stupid fucking things the NCAA does, the timing of the portal opening might be the worst.
Besides making coaches recruit high school seniors at the same time as the portal, the schedule punishes good teams just because they are playing longer
Teams like Michigan that are good enough to make the playoffs will necessarily lose out on guys because their own players are still playing and haven’t made their decisions.
January 7th, 2024 at 12:18 AM ^
the schedule punishes good teams just because they are playing longer
Then it's a feature, not a bug. The NFL achieves parity by punishing good teams and rewarding bad teams. College football would benefit from more parity.
January 7th, 2024 at 11:01 AM ^
The timing also makes sense from a academic schedule standpoint. Players can transfer and start at their new schools in Jan. If you delayed the portal until after the playoffs, you'd have to start at your new school in May.
The calendar makes sense.
January 6th, 2024 at 11:09 PM ^
WTF is happening with Lincoln Riley's tenure already??
I'm glad they suck. But I don't want him to flame out so badly so fast. Their new AD hired Kalen DeBoer at UW.
January 6th, 2024 at 11:09 PM ^
Doubtful, but does Gatlin Bair reconsider? Assuming Nelson can attract other high-profile guys to Boise?
January 7th, 2024 at 2:51 PM ^
The talk from Boise beat people on Bair hasn't changed, he told the staff he was no longer interested once Avalos was fired and all signals point to Oregon unfortunately.
As a Boise fan, getting rid of a coach who the players hated was worth losing out on one recruit, even if he would have been Boise's highest (high school) commit by a large margin. But man, his top 3 having both of my teams and him ending up at neither will sting.
January 7th, 2024 at 1:31 AM ^
What QBs do you think are available to Michigan and what QBs do you think will become available to Michigan?
January 7th, 2024 at 2:41 AM ^
They keep saying the portal needs to open when it does because transfers need to register & enroll in classes by a certain date.
When is that date at Michigan? How late could they add a player that would be able to get accepted & enrolled?
Seems like maybe they'd already be limited to grad transfers?
January 7th, 2024 at 11:04 AM ^
Winter term 2024 begins at Michigan on 1/10.
January 7th, 2024 at 2:53 PM ^
With transfer rules as they are, AFAIK there's really nothing stopping us from stealing literally anyone in spring. Even someone who already transferred this off-season, like Nelson. I imagine the keys to this roster would be tantalizing to someone who was on the fence about transferring elsewhere.