OSU's Mediocre Pass Rush(Is Larry Johnson just a good recruiter?)
I feel like this isn't getting enough attention....Michigan lost Hutchinson and Ojabo in the offseason, and the narrative around college football was that it would be a giant weakness for the 2022 year.
Yet, through 7 weeks, Michigan is tied for 4th in the country with 24 sacks(https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/466).
Conversely, OSU is tied for 14th in the country with only 14 sacks. So Larry Johnson can make Chase Young or a Bosa brother a success, but he seems to struggle without those plug and play guys. 5-Star Zach Harrison has 0 sacks this season, 5-Star J.T. Tuimoloau has 0 sacks this season and 5-Star Jack Sawyer has 2 sacks this season. Looks like Larry Johnson is just a good recruiter since my grandma could have taken credit for Chase Young and Bosa brothers if she was a D-Line coach.
A quick photo of a 4-star that outperformed his ranking:
October 19th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
There has to be a better stat available than raw sacks. Adjusted (for opponent and standard/pass down) sack rate perhaps? Pressure rate?
It is surprising that Harrison has zero sacks but their defense has been very good, even by opponent adjusted tempo free metrics (but yes, it hasn't really been tested) so I wonder what's behind the success if not QB pressure.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
Maybe playing against mediocre teams with mediocre quarterbacks?
Ohio State has played a weak schedule (as have we until last Saturday) so shouldn't a DL loaded with 5 stars rain havoc down upon opposing QB's? Well, they haven't. So, if OSU played good team with a top tier QB they might find themselves in a bit of trouble.
October 19th, 2022 at 2:23 PM ^
OSU have Iowa and PSU the next two weeks. It'll be a good opportunity for seeing how their offense does w/Iowa, and how both sides of the ball do with PSU.
And they just did Staee and Rutger, which gives us four total same-opponent comps to make by the evening of Nov 5.
If we're going to make a comparison, that seems like a better way.
October 19th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
I've been saying for a few weeks that as good as Ohio State looks, they've faced what turned out to be, even worse of a schedule than us, especially in B1G play.
The best OOC game is probably Toledo of all teams, as Notre Dame has been shown to just an utter disaster (losses to 2 teams with no other FBS victories: Marshall & Stanford, and now they've lost their starting QB).
In the B1G, they've played Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Rutgers. Wisky/MSU are good analogues for us, as they style of play is more similar than Maryland/Purdue/Indiana/etc. But those 3 teams are likely the worst in the conference aside from Indiana and Northwestern.
So yeah, the next two games vs Iowa and Penn State will the be first, truly good measure of how they look vs somewhat relevant competition. Meanwhile, we've faced Maryland/Iowa/Penn State, so we already have 3 good games to judge ourselves against. So I'm very intrigued to see if their run game is real, or just benefitted from the schedule.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:54 PM ^
As I agree with their SOS sucks, it's still not worse than ours. Within league play, yeah, you could argue their schedule has been easier, but overall, the first 3 Tomato Cans we played isn't comparable.
October 19th, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
Our SOS is worse but we should caveat some things about it - would Toledo, Arkansas St or Notre Dame have challenged us? Would those offenses have greatly changed the statistics of our D? I've little doubt that Ohio State's OOC would beat our OOC, but I've even less doubt that us and OSU and UGA would all be undefeated playing each other's schedules. Well, except for UGA's beatdown of Oregon - I've some doubt that we could replicate that, and more doubt that OSU could (because...well you remember). But I'm pretty sure we both look better against Mizzou. Our OOC schedule sucked, but I think only 3 teams in the top 10 actually played a challenging OOC opponent - UGA, Oregon, and Bama (against Texas). I'm not happy with our OOC schedule but also I don't think it is fair to ding this team for it anymore.
At the end of the day we are playing like a top 5 team, have looked as good against the bottom 60 as anybody else, have looked as good against top 25ish as most of the rest of the top 5, and have one of the 3 best wins of the season so far.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
I do wonder about some of the other metrics when it comes to rating OSUs D. I caught a highlight from The Game last year, it was simply commentary during warm ups or Michigan coming out of the tunnel or something like that - Joel (or whoever it was) says something about OSUs D, after their matchup against Oregon last year, was coming into the game 2nd in the nation in total defense and 5th in the nation in rush defense. I looked it up and sure enough, statistically they were right on par, if not better, than Michigan against the rush at the end of the season. Was their defense actually that porous last year? Or just an excuse because they had 3 "shitty" games?
October 19th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
How is this not an important metric? Do you think Michigan would only have 14 sacks with the 3 5-Stars that OSU have? I highly doubt that. If we switched sack numbers with OSU, every pundit under the sun would be saying "see, Michigan is not anywhere near where they were last year because they lost Hutchinson and Ojabo."
October 19th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
I think it's an important stat, but it's also just one stat that doesn't give you the full picture.
But I fully agree with you that the talking heads will just glom onto one thing and run with it.
October 19th, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
There has to be a better stat available than raw sacks.
Good point. And there are.
- #6 in defense Line Yards
- #10 in Opportunity Rate
- The percentage of carries [when four yards are available] that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.
- #6 in Power Success Rate
- percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.
- #3 in Stuff Rate
- percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.
- #16 in Sack Rate -- OP is correct. Sacks is the weak spot of OSU's D-Line play.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:02 PM ^
Those are nice stats for sure and complete the whole defensive category conversation. I am still talking strictly about sacks and that OSU should be getting more flack for not getting them even though they tout themselves as "DE U". I don't even see how this can be argued.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^
I didn't disagree.
Passing downs is when OSU sack rate suffers (81st), but they excel at getting sacks on standard downs (4th). I would like to see their sack rate on passing downs be much better.
Ironically, Michigan is the reverse: 3rd in sack rate on passing downs, but only 75th on standard downs.
October 20th, 2022 at 3:59 AM ^
I’m not an expert by any means but it seems like the value of getting sacks on passing downs would be greater than the opposite. I would imagine a decent chunk of those would be 3rd and some 4th down plays. Putting that into perspective and considering our numbers on non passing downs I would think that having 12 more sacks is quite a lot and that they’ve been more impactful on the game.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^
A lot of those stats seem like DT and interior lineman stats. I'm not sure those stats exactly dispell what OP is saying about sacks/pressures
October 19th, 2022 at 3:27 PM ^
Honestly Harrison has always been a pretty bleh pass rusher. Decent player because he is decent against the run but definitely has not lived up to the recruiting profile he had.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^
My crystal ball says ask again later.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
Mike Hall, Jr. is putting up good numbers on that DLine, but overall they are a little light in the moccasins at DT. They have Zach Harrison taking snaps at DT. :-D
October 19th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
This is the long con from Michigan. They put in Fatty Matty as co DC, builds up that D and retires. Leaves LJ exposed and not great at development. To see Zach probably regretting his decision as he probably would have been a top 5 pick had he chosen the good guys is beyond awesome. Ya love to see it.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^
Yeah, I think we've got 'em right where we want 'em!
But on a more serious note, we are getting lots of hints, both big and little, that we should be able to play with them again this year. My biggest concern would still be on the other side of the ball, us getting a pass rush against them. We're great on third downs when we've stopped the run ourselves, but that will be less commonly the case against OSU.
October 19th, 2022 at 4:10 PM ^
Seems to me that OSU is trying to replicate what UM has, but do not have the developers that we do. Never thought I would say this, but I would rather have UMs offense (asides from the WR core) than OSU’s. Further, I have an inkling suspicion that as more and more teams adopt NIL, you’ll see dormant teams rise, thus taking away top tier teams that rely on beating teams purely in talent alone. I think this is Harbz best team at UM. Optimisim aside, next year I’m way more concerned than this years team
October 20th, 2022 at 4:19 AM ^
I’m honestly a little afraid to think it but I’m kind of getting a feeling this thing could finally be turning. If we can go into the shoe and win this year I think that’s a big deal for both programs going forward. Ryan Day has been seemingly great so far but maybe Harbaugh can turn this on him. The way we punked (is this not a word?) them last year at home combined with winning at their place this year would be amazing and really flip the script to is OSU too finesse and not tough enough?Can Day figure out Harbaugh? If he can win us a national championship and have a legit coaching staff in place to replace him I will help pack his bags to go win that super bowl he wants. Either way I think he’s gotten us either there or extremely close to reload every year and expect a title run. It maybe took a little longer and had some bumps but I think it’s official now.
October 20th, 2022 at 6:11 AM ^
Day inherited the keys to the Ferrari. He doesn’t scare me like the Death Star with Urban. OSU fans will call for his head if UM wins this year. With an Urban team, those teams seemed like a cohesive unit, whereas, OSU is only scary on one facet of the game: offense. Not saying UM will win but there is some light with Day at the helm. That said, Day is by far their best moral coach they have had. A genuinely good dude that didn’t sell his soul like his other predecessors so no Ill will towards him.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
Nationally Michigan's defense is ranked 4th, OSU is ranked 5th and the quality of our respective opponents is about even although ND is better than anyone we faced OOC.
I dont know if cherry-picking one stat, sacks, is a good metric for determining scheme vs personnel. I think he's both - a good recruiter and good at scheme.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
Surely there are more metrics to consider, but I think it's worth discussing. Larry Johnson is heralded as the "Godfather" by every OSU slappy in existence. Seems like the gap between ready-made studs in Nick/Joey Bosa and Chase Young and what we're seeing now is pretty large.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:00 PM ^
Larry Johnson also developed a bunch of DL for the NFL like Tyquan Lewis, Sam Hubbard, Jaylan Holmes. He also developed a DL to the NFL at PSU like Courtney Brown, Aaron Maybin, Jimmy Kennedy, Tamba Hali, Michael Haynes, Jared Odrick, Devon Still, etc.
Larry Johnson has an excellent reputation at DL for identifying and developing DL into NFL talent at OSU and PSU. He still is being held in high regard in the coaching community.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^
Agreed. And with a poor year for what OSU claims to be near the best at, I'd think there would be more flack heading his direction instead of this literal post today that many seem to want to make about total defense.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^
I think ND/CSU might be a toss-up.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^
ND might be better than anyone we've faced OOC, but the gap between ND and UConn is less than the gap between PSU and ND.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^
Of note, Illinois the #1 defense right now -- which is looking more and more like an unfortunate team to play right before The Game.
October 20th, 2022 at 1:24 AM ^
Disagree. The very opposite of a trap game - keeps the team focused and sharp
October 19th, 2022 at 2:01 PM ^
Interesting that 5 of the first 7 are Big10 teams and also 6 of the top 10 defenses. Is that because of the OOC schedule or Big10 with average offensives
October 19th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
You lost me when you used ND and "better" in the same sentence.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:21 PM ^
Sacks are overrated
October 19th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
Sacks are super fun, but like our Hawaii and Uconn games where the QB hucked the ball after 0.2 seconds it wasn't an indicator of how well we played. Our 7 sacks against CSU inflates our numbers a bit as well.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:34 PM ^
You think OSU doesn't get the benefit of the doubt when looking at net sacks every year? Give me a break!!!
October 20th, 2022 at 4:41 AM ^
Sacks in total maybe, when they happened definitely not. From buckeyechuck up the thread we’re very highly ranked getting sacks on passing downs. To my amateur brain that’s a really good thing. It’s likely an important down as far as ending drives goes.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
I don't know, the guy has been considered an elite DL coach for two decades at this point so I'm inclined to not consider him 'mediocre'. Prior to last year a good chunk of the country (and most of this board) was labeling Harbaugh mediocre.
Maaaaaaaaybe there's something to the idea that at age ~70 he's not at the top of his game in some way? But even that feels like a speculative reach. Sometimes 5*s just end up being guys rather than dudes.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
They have the flu. Every week.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
Maybe Luke Fickell was a pretty good DC.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
Yet, through 7 weeks, Michigan is tied for 4th in the country with 24 sacks(https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/466).
Conversely, OSU is tied for 14th in the country with only 14 sacks
This link actually says we're 9th and OSU is 47th. Are you looking at something else?
October 19th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
I'm looking at total sacks. Some teams have already had a bye.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
I'm not sure why total sacks would be a better measure than sacks per game, but by that metric, OSU is still 47th.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
Fair point. The question I sought out to answer was "how many sacks does Michigan have compared to the college football landscape and how many sacks does OSU have?"
October 19th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
Yes, Larry Johnson is just the worst. They should fire him, and then he should come here to be recruiting coordinator please and thank you - and bring Hartline as well.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
I said something about Larry Johnson's possible decline in a thread a few weeks back and one of the Buckeye "contributors" on this site pointed to Sam Hubbard as an example of me being incorrect...anyway, no one can really take credit for developing the Bosas and/or Chase Young as they were obvious studs and would have been in any system. I don't think it is stretch to say we do more with what we have than they do relative to recruiting rankings. Winovich, Uche, Paye, Hutchinson, Ojabo etc were all "lesser" recruits than a guy like Zach Harrison. I have watched enough OSU football this year to see Harrison isn't doing much of anything - I don't even need to see the sack numbers to know it (but now that I have - woof). The announcers don't mention him. There is no "look out for Harrison" talk. Mike Morris is mentioned during games. Okie is mentioned during games. Color guys circle those players and talk about them because they are productive. That is not to say OSUs system is ineffective or that their defense is garbage but it does seem that their highly touted DEs are not super productive.
October 19th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
Opponents obviously have something to do with it. Let's take a quick look at who the Bucks have played, and those teams current record.
Notre Dame (who is currently 3-3), Arkansas State (2-5), Toledo (5-2), Wisconsin (3-4), Rutgers (3-3), and the Spartans (3-4). All of those games, except the contest with MSU were at the Shoe.
Any single detailed statistic, like sacks, may not be representative of an entire defense's performance. However, which of the teams they have currently played possess a solid OL?
October 19th, 2022 at 2:54 PM ^
Something else to note: the best rushing offense Ohio State will have faced before The Game: Toledo, at 31st. Yup, that's right, Toledo. Next best? Penn State, at 45th. The same Penn State offense that we just shoved in a locker.
There's absolutely zero chance that defensive front 7 is ready for the beef machine coming their way, no matter the stats they accumulate up to that point.
October 19th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
Man, I just hope Taulia is healthy against OSU. So relieved to see he could play this week (he shouldn’t play, because Northwestern is ass, but it’s great news for them).
If we have to face a surprisingly good Illinois they should have to face a surprisingly good Maryland before The Game.
Meanwhile SEC teams play The Citadel lol gotta keep the SEC bias intact, wouldn’t want that 9th conference game to make anyone look bad huh. I mean imagine if UGA and Bama played in the *regular season*. You’d think being from the same conference they’d play more than about once every decade before championship season. But I digress…
October 19th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
Their WR coaching sucks too! /s
October 19th, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
And naturally, Big Ten Network Bucknut slappy Joshua Perry gives his mid-season defensive player award to a Bucknut D lineman Michael Hall Jr. who is behind Mike Morris in every major category.... At least Wannstedt chose Mike Morris.
Morris: 15 tackles, 8 TFL, 5 sacks
Hall: 13 tackles. 7.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks