By the Numbers: Michigan is Arguably Best Among "Struggling Bluebloods"
Inspired by last night's nightmarish Texas loss--seriously, if you know any Texas fans, check in on them--I decided to check the records of "Struggling Bluebloods" during the Harbaugh Era. Nebraska, Tennessee, Florida, USC, and Texas are often compared to Michigan in the national media. They've all failed to make the CFP since its inception. And all have at least a plausible claim to blueblood status or perhaps just outside that category. If you disagree that one or more of these schools are true bluebloods, that's fine, but they've all claimed national titles within the last few decades and have fairly storied histories.
So assuming my math is correct (feel free to fact-check me), here are the records of that group of five Struggling Bluebloods, along with Michigan, starting in the 2015 season and ending last night:
Nebraska: 34-46
Tennessee: 43-40
Texas: 46-38
USC: 51-30
Florida: 56-29
Michigan: 56-23
The numbers are a little hinky given the uneven number of games played during Covid Season, but there's still an obvious conclusion to be drawn: Michigan has faired better than any of these programs aside from perhaps Florida. It's fair to argue that Florida deserves more credit for the same number of wins, since the SEC is so tough. But the B1G East has been damn tough lately too, and also Florida has built-in recruiting advantages that we don't. Let's just say the two schools have had comparable success since 2015. Plus we're 2-1 against them in that span.
USC is next, though they play in arguably the softest conference of any of these teams. We can be very glad we're not Tennessee, Texas, or especially--God help us--Nebraska.
Does this exculpate all of Harbaugh's shortcomings? No, of course not. He can't be Coach For Life if he can't one day beat Ohio State and win the B1G and go to the CFP. Though I very much support retaining him after this season, something which feels inevitable anyway, he has yet to meet lofty expectations from his hiring, etcetera yada yada blah blah you've heard it before. The purpose of this post isn't so much to add fuel to the Harbaugh Debate fire. I'm just trying to show that we've been better than national narratives tend to indicate. In particular, please for the love of all that's holy, stop comparing Harbaugh to Scott Frost.
Obviously I'd rather be one of the Non-Struggling Bluebloods, but we have a much better chance of getting there as long as we're not missing bowl games or losing at home to Kansas.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
FANTASTIC laying of the land.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
Why thank you
November 14th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
If we reach 10 wins next week, that will be the 4th time in 7 years.
I can't really get behind calling that "struggling". We struggled to beat our #1 rival, which unfortunately is a prerequisite for a division championship, conference championship, and playoff appearance.
It boils down to beating OSU. It always has and always will.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:50 PM ^
It’s not struggling in the literal sense. All things considered it’s a great accomplishment, but the issue is that Michigan and the results it attains in a given year will always, always, ALWAYS be compared to what OSU does that year. And that OSU team is a year in, year out JV NFL squad riding a wave of unprecedented success that looks in no way like it’s slowing down anytime soon.
It’s an incredibly tough hurdle to get past, and anyone who does it seems to only be able to do it no more than twice a decade.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
Exactly. If that is the measuring stick then the ONLY teams that aren't "struggling" have been Clemson (who is certainly not there this year) and Alabama (who also happens to be 9-1 with a similar loss on the road in a hostile environment).
Michigan has been good and JH has won over 70% of his games. OSU has been among the very best of all time.
November 14th, 2021 at 6:55 PM ^
This is definitely true, although I think our shit record in bowl games hurts as well. I know a lot of people don’t think they matter unless it’s a playoff game or the rose bowl, but if we could at least finish the year with NY6 bowl wins i think it would go a long way. I think if Harbaugh had a Peach bowl and Orange bowl victory at Michigan on his resume it would look a hell of a lot better.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
Correct.
For all the shitting on Harbaugh and often infuriating game management and turtling in high stress moments, he's returned UM to its historical mean....problem is OSU has gone to another level (as in top 3 recruiting and performance every year). They are also playing by different rules and have adopted the SEC model of semi-pro football.
If Harbaugh is coaching at USC or Texas over the past 7 years, I'm quite certain he'd have a few CFB playoff appearances. He hasn't forgotten how to coach. We just have to play the Bama of the north every year and havent caught any Auburn type magic/voodoo in that game.
The MSU losses are annoying, but 2 are incredibley flukish...2015 and this year. For all the hand wringing, we really are not that far away....but need to recruit better.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
Unfortunately it isn’t just OSU. Harbaugh is 3 and 4 vs MSU. We can call 2015 a fluke because of the muffed punt and 2020 a fluke because of the Covid year and 2021 a fluke because of crap officiating, but at some point, you’ve got to win some of those games.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
Agree. I think JH has earned another year based upon the team's performance (which is a moot point, because he's clearly getting one), but we can't keep waiving away the losses in the games we care about the most (MSU, OSU, bowl games) as fluky or unlucky. At some point, he has to win at least some of them consistently. If he was regularly beating MSU and winning at least half his bowl games, feel like the fanbase narrative surrounding him would be much different, notwithstanding his lack of success against OSU.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^
Punt 6 - (MSU 2015), 6 overturned replays + shit officiating + low probability football (MSU 2021), Ref robbery in the shoe (OSU - 2016) can't just be overlooked. Nuance and perspective matter.
OSU is a superior program. MSU is an inferior program. Catching OSU with our current approach to CFB vs. their (semi-pro SEC) will be difficult, but beating Sparty 3 out of every 4 years going forward is quite likely given where the respective programs stand.
UM is in a much better spot as a program than MSU, and Harbaugh should very well be 5-2 against them already. OSU is a whole 'nother animal unfortunately.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:33 PM ^
MSU has been an inexplicable failure. I can't disagree with that. They are inside our head.
The cure is an absolute and thorough ass-kicking to the tune of 56-3 to finally purge the curse of Mike Hart and get back to normal.
November 14th, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
Fans overanalyze sometimes. Was MSU in our heads while we were going up 30-14, or just did they just get in our heads at the end of the game?
Or were they only in JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum's heads, since they fumbled?
Or were they actually in the instant replay official's head?
In spite of everything else, we very likely would have won that game if MSU hadn't completed an inch-perfect throw against tight coverage on 4th and 4, down 16 points. There really wasn't anything more we could have done defensively there, they just made a play.
Sometimes stuff just happens.
November 14th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
All true.
But, as I sit and watch the game I find myself EXPECTING that shit like that is going to happen.
I can't say what's in the head of the coach or the player, but having that thought creep in that "here we go again" wouldn't be surprising. Second thoughts on a playcall or an extra lapse in concentration by a player can have an impact in a close game. Just sayin'. Confidence matters.
November 14th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
We had such a win two years ago—44-10.
When MSU has a good team, that’s a very difficult game to win. They just weren’t good very often in the old days. But State will pull out all the stops for that game in ways that U-M won’t. For instance, State has a bye the week before the Michigan game 3 of the next 4 years (and did this year too).
November 14th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
Maybe it’s that msu isn’t a pathetic joke like they were for much of the 70s 80s and 90s. Maybe they are a generally competent football team that wants to win and tries about as hard as UM these days.
yes, it would be great to own them again but they are not a pushover, Harbaugh can’t control the competence of other programs.
how the hell are people thinking that he is even close to a hot seat this year? He has the team ranked in the top 10 and baring a slip up against the Terrapins, this team will be 10-1 going into the OSU game,
Some UM fans must me the most miserable SOBs in the planet.
November 14th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
Is there any other team in college football (Power 5?) that has a similar situation, i.e. only one team gets in the way year after year of them winning a conference championship? The only one I can think of is Alabama in the SEC West and whoever comes after them.
November 14th, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^
PSU is in pretty much the same boat as us, other than that they got the breaks to go their way in '16.
November 14th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
Wanted to add that I realize other teams have thwarted us but Ohio State is goliath here.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
The only reason we can be considered "struggling" at all is because of the idiotic 4-team playoff. We've regularly been in the top 10 under Harbaugh.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
Come on it is not only because of the 4 team playoff. It's also because (1) we've never even won our division nevermind the conference, (2) we've never beaten our main rival under JH, and (3) we have a losing record against our lesser rival.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
Don't bring rationale into this fight lol
You also beat me by a minute
November 14th, 2021 at 1:53 PM ^
Because that stuff wouldn't matter if we were in the playoff.
Michigan basketball didn't win the Big Ten in 1989, 1992, 1993, 2013 or 2018. How many people remember that?
November 14th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
I mean that totally an apples to apples comparison for sure.
November 15th, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
I don't understand your point. Of course that stuff wouldn't matter if we were in the playoff. The comment I replied to said the ONLY reason we're considered a struggling program is because we haven't made the playoff. My point is if you reverse the three things I mentioned, i.e. if we had won the division/conference and beaten OSU a couple of times and had a better record against MSU, we wouldn't be considered struggling even if we hadn't made the playoff. Many would still consider JH a disappointment for not having made the playoff considering the expectations when he was hired, sure, but no one would argue we were a "struggling" program if we were actually winning titles and beating OSU occasionally.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
@ camblue...
The Sparty losses are incredibly maddening, but 2015 punt 6 and this year's officiating + voodoo in east Lansing skew the record from 5-2 to 3-4.
Of course, all that matter is the final score, but some nuance and acknowledgment of these absurd events should be taken into account.
OSU is just better, and we dont seem to get any breaks or make any low probability plays against them. 2016 UM was clearly the better team, was a robbery.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
How is sparty blocking a punt that has a 4+ person rushing advantage an absurd event? So we just make excuses when we want?
Whole planet looks at win / loss records. Irrational Michigan Fan: "let me tell you how we should actually look at the record but not actually count the record".
November 14th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
Well, considering they
1) roughed the snapper
2) The kicker dropped the ball
3) The ball flew up directly into the air and landed into a Spartan players hands instead of a dead ball on the ground...
And the likelihood of a win was 99.9% at the time, I'd call it flukish.
A rational view of yesterday's PSU game, for example, is that it was a coinflip game and we were somewhat fortunate to win it.
A rational view of a game where you hope for a dropped punter snap, ball popping into a rushers hands, and penalty not being called on roughing the snapper to begin with - with 3 seconds on the clock - suggests it was a flukish play....not to mention how flukish it was to happen in that scenario at that point of a game.
In a game of probabilities, that was about the least likely outcome possible...it's not an excuse, it's statistics.
November 14th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
I really don't care, I'd think less of myself if I brought up all the what-ifs of all losses. You are what you're record is, they still won and Michigan still lost.
This year if Michigan wins out they make the playoff, win the division, and go to the big ten championship game for the first time.
If they lose to either Maryland or OSU they do not, they don't make the playoff, don't win the division, and don't go to the big ten championship game. We can pound our chests at "10 wins!" but nobody outside Harbaugh apologists care.
November 14th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
People can pound their chests about "14 wins!" or "ranked #2", but nobody outside Natty apologists cares.
If you don't win the Natty, you should disband the program. Or at least fire all coaches and start from scratch.
November 14th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
Michigan basketball in the Fab Five years (1) never won the Big Ten, (2) went 1-3 against Indiana, and (3) were only 10-9 against ranked opponents in the regular season. Was Michigan basketball "struggling" back then? No, because March Madness made up for all of that.
Michigan football isn't flourishing, but it's not struggling, except against unrealistic expectations.
November 14th, 2021 at 7:19 PM ^
2 of those 3 are the same thing.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
Why even set it that high? Could set it at big ten championships. Or even division titles. Or beating your main rival. Or winning against the in-state rival.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
Big Ten championships have always been what mattered. The program is considered "struggling" under Harbaugh because it hasn't consistently been in contention for them.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:13 PM ^
We've absolutely been in contention. We haven't closed. Big difference.
Not in contention = RR years and 3 of 4 Hoke years.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
Key word: consistently.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
We were in the division title race in November in 2016, '18, '19 and now '21. Hell, we tied for first place in '18.
The complaints about Harbaugh are 99% about that we haven't made the playoff. The conference title, rivalries, big games, etc stuff is just ex post facto bullshit.
In 2019, no one gave a shit that we trashed Sparty by 34 points. Wisconsin and PSU were "big games" (because we lost).
In 2021, these same posters argue that UW and PSU were meaningless, while MSU is a time-honored glorious rivalry (because we lost).
As for OSU, if we had a non-idiotic playoff format, it'd be a game for bragging rights but wouldn't make or break our season. If we were regularly making the field of 12 or 16, people wouldn't care that much about one game on the schedule, to the point of wanting the coach fired. It matters now because we basically must win it to make the field of 4.
November 14th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
I disagree about CFP supremacy, but I see that you're arguing against someone who thinks that they're all-important. Maybe The Game is important for some fans solely because it's the gatekeeper for that, but I doubt that that's true for most.
That said, Harbaugh has promoted The Game as the metric for success (e.g., the weight room signs). So far, the only time Harbaugh's teams have really competed with OSU was 2016. Despite being favorites on the road in 2018, and tying for the division, that game was so lopsided that I have a hard time calling it "contending" in hindsight. I don't have a better word to describe a consistent lack of success than 'struggling'.
FWIW, I think Harbaugh's tenure has been disappointing, but I don't think Michigan should fire him. I learned my lesson after being a RichRod enthusiast.
November 14th, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Didn’t we have a chance in 2017 to have a go ahead score late in the 4th quarter against OSU?
November 14th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
But Sark, Frost, Mullen, and Heupel have such exciting offenses. /s
November 14th, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
Great work. Agree with everything you said. I would probably add Florida State to that list of struggling bluebloods as well.
One thing that drives me nuts is how much shit Harbaugh gets among the national media. Idiots like Finebaum just love to criticize him at every opportunity. But then they give these other teams a pass despite the fact that they are set up for success, either playing in much weaker conferences (USC, Texas) or, like you said, are located in fertile recruiting territory (Florida, USC, Texas and Tennessee).
November 14th, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
Why no PSU? Edit: They're 59-26 and FSU is 45 - 38.
EDIT 2: I think UM is 58 - 23 after last night.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
They haven’t really been struggling (except for yesterday ?)
November 14th, 2021 at 1:48 PM ^
Here's a crazy comparison. Franklin is 66-32 at PSU and has never seriously been on the hot seat. Meanwhile, Nebraska fired Bo Pelini for going 67-27. D'oh!
November 14th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
The second biggest difference between frames and harbaugh (#1 being Harbaugh’s better record and winning head-to-head record) is that frames had a lucky blocked field goal to beat a superior osu team once and win one B1G title. Don’t forget, he lost to harbaugh 49-10 that same year ?
November 14th, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
I believe M being only once in that "lucky field goal" position to beat OSU coupled with the two of the most lopsided losses in the rivalry in the past 20 years, makes M miles apart from OSU. Add the inability to win more than twice after 2000, struggle against ranked opponents (also on the road) and the narrative keeps growing.
Just like weight loss and gain, this narrative wasn't built in a day. It won't go away in a day either.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
This is not only negative - it’s incorrect. John O’Korn had osu on the ropes in the Bighouse early in Harbaugh’s tenure. This thread was not started to compare us with osu, but if it was, don't forget some important facts (more wins, more head to head wine, more B1G titles, more national titles). Go listen to Steve Deace - leave the real fans to enjoy a big win!
By the way, I am enjoying watching urban Meyer get humiliated (again) live in person at Lucas Oil stadium. This is fun!
urban M just can’t seem to get it done when he cannot buy the best roster. The salary cap’s a real girl dog.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
He's not in Nebraska , err - I mean Ohio, anymore.
Probably still inside Nebraska twice a week.
November 14th, 2021 at 11:56 PM ^
My comment was about the PSU winning by a lucky field goal against OSU part. But you turned it into something that it wasn't meant to be. Enjoy your game. No need to get your undies in a bunch.
November 14th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^
There's a good argument to be made that Solich and Pelini did about as well as any coach could expect to do at Nebraska in the wake of an all-time great like Osborne while trying to compete in a CFB era of changing economic and demographic conditions that served to work against Nebraska.
November 14th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
Struggling at 9-1 - life ain’t bad my friends