ND to open campus to students Aug. 10th
ND to open campus & start Fall semester August 10th.
Obviously, ND is much smaller than Michigan, but the campuses aren’t far apart geographically & if students follow the guidelines there isn’t any reason Michigan can’t also open at the same time. The plan is smart too because it ends the semester early & gets kids home before the Influenza season ramps up.
https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-to-begin-fall-semester-on-campus-the-week-of-aug-10/
How are they addressing social distancing in the classroom? Some of my classes have students packed in like sardines.
They are bringing in LiMu the emu
to keep distance.
I think certain measures will be taken but the question is starting to boil down to “are we going to keep making it impossible to have any semblance of normal life or are we just going to accept some risk.” Public sentiment is turning pretty hard toward the latter. We have created what is not sustainable as a “normal” state of affairs and some of the measures will last until a vaccine but others are not going to last. Masks will probably become fairly routine but the six foot thing isn’t lasting. You can’t live life with plexiglass around you.
We just got my sons Kindergarten registration. It looks like they plan on going. They aren’t going to keep those kids six feet apart, it is a comical proposition.
I have been one of the loudest proponents of the shelter in places ordinances since March. I was good with schools closing for the rest of the year. But it's May. Two + months into this. We've flattened the curve. Hosiptals are not over run. SD and masks and hand washing are the #1 ways to combat this thing and people are generally compliant with that in states that have had shelter orders. It's time to start opening up. Summer has to happen in the northern third of the country, people should be allowed to be in parks outside, in small groups of less than 50-100 if people can maintain SD and wear masks otherwise. However, outdoor rec activities (in NYS) are phase 4/4 which is effectively 8 weeks away at least - parks are closing. Little leagues shuttering.
If we can't do simple outdoor activities like softball (keeping SD/masks as much as possible), where the viral load is orders of magnitude smaller, then what logical person is cramming their kids into school in the fall? Who wants to head back into an office environment with dozens of people confined indoors and the HVAC system spreading this from room A to B and across different floors? What do you think will happen when the fall comes and people head indoors for 95% of their time? Contraction of airborn viruses happen in close quarters over extended time periods in confinded spaces. Heat and humitity help: they have attenuating effects on the transmissability of airborne viruses.
WE ARE SAFEST OUTSIDE. OPEN YOUR WINDOWS. TURN OFF THE A/C THIS SUMMER. SPEND YOUR TIME OUTSIDE. LET THE PUBLIC SPEND THEIR TIME OUTSIDE
When this thing gets worse in the fall the shit will hit the fan again. Are we all preparred to shelter for 80-90% of the summer and then keep sheltered for most of the winter/early spring? If you're too scared now, I promise you'll be hoarding TP and hand sanitizer again in Oct-Nov-Dec.
I won't be having my family attend ANY indoor event for the next year (except work and school and school I'm 50-50 on for next fall unless there are major plans to mitigate contageousness indoors). No huge events (bigger than 200, if outdoors) of any kind until next spring. No indoor bounce zone. No hoops/hockey, no school events like concerts. No retauraunts. No movies, unless it's a not too crowded matinee. But outdoors in small groups (< 50 -100) with SDing and masks is statistically safer than any other situation.
That really makes no sense. Why would outdoor activity be so low on the reopen plan?
No clue but it’s infuriating - we’ve lost half the year bc most of NYS will be all but closed from mid March thru August at best then flu season will hit in Oct.
I really don't get NYS's stage system right now. MA just released some general guidelines and it's basically the opposite, with outside activity being promoted (it was never really curtailed except in groups) and the day camps being a stage-2 goal. I agree that if you're going to try to give people a reprieve, it's now and letting them go outside.
I was with you until the last paragraph
A friend of mine is a senior executive at Meijer and out of 254 stores they have had a total of 4 employees test positive for Covid.
Yeah, we've gotten registrations for our kids as well. It's weird - in the US people have been reticent to open the schools while a lot of other countries have made it a point to get those up and running as quickly as possible.
The big difference between college and primary/secondary school-age kids is that the vast majority of the latter still live with parents/structured homes where someone takes some responsibility for the kid(s) health, while the prior really does rely on the students to continue to treat themselves. Like, I think you can probably enforce some form of mask wearing and distancing in classrooms but it's the rest of the day where it's much harder and, frankly, where you'll see outbreaks. You can tell a bunch of 6-year-olds to wash their hands and watch them do it; it's a lot harder to ask that of 19-year-olds on a Thursday night. And if one of my kids starts showing symptoms I'll keep them home, while that's a harder ask for older students.
Obviously morbidity is lower for younger people and that's a godsend, but 18-year-olds living in dorms and acting like 18-year-olds is a recipe for any number of outbreaks (I remember at least 1 meningitis outbreaks while I was a freshman at UM, possibly more). And because many of the infected either show few symptoms or are completely asymptomatic, you're going to undoubtedly have delayed outbreaks on campuses.
It's unlikely to be a massive wave but a lot of staff/professors/etc. are more in the age/condition ranges for worse outcomes, and they'll be around these same kids on a daily basis. Maybe that's just the balance we'll all accept, and when a vaccine arrives those in close contact will get it first. I think public sentiment is gingerly moving toward accepting some of that risk, but as always the rates we're seeing in terms of tests/deaths are delayed 3-4 weeks based on how long it takes the disease to affect people and, at times, lead to death. So what I worry may happen is we're looking at today's numbers as assuming they are concurrent with our activities when they're not.
My guess is they'll give it a shot in the fall and see what happens; I wouldn't be shocked, though, if schools also get spooked if there's a spike and go back to virtual teaching for some time.
I recently read a pretty compelling article on opening schools (link). A lot of interesting links embedded. I think we should definitely plan on opening in the fall, and we have the opportunity to see what happens in other countries before making a final decision.
In general, I feel like if we keep the R0 close to 1, while selectively exposing young/healthy (not comorbidities) Throughout the summer, we’ll be in a much better place when October hits as a lot of prime working age adults will have some form of protection.
Faculty and staff at risk should be accommodated. Maybe in circumstances they could teach remotely with assistance from a TA. Leaves of absence could be taken. New hiring could be done.
There is no perfect solution but we need to push forward.
ijohnb, “public sentiment is turning pretty hard toward the latter”? You must get your statistics from watching crazy gun toting uprisings or from facebook because all the statistical polls say the opposite about public sentiment.
Polls are easily manipulated devices. You can get pretty much whatever "result" you're looking for by how the questions are posed.
Seems kind of pointless to have social distancing in the classroom when you know they won't be practicing it otherwise. You think you are going to have a bunch of 18 year olds away from home for the first time following any rules?
He's not interested in practical solutions. Just fear mongering and acting like an out of touch Chad.
Easy: lawyers and liability.
gov't agencies will have at least qualified immunity for any outbreaks, and that's if no laws are passed that would give complete immunity from this virus as has been discussed in a number of places. even the private schools like ND, if they are following CDC or HHS guidelines, are going to be okay. not that suits can't/won't be filed, but i have a feeling that if someone went to a school or other activity voluntarily they will be 'assuming the risk', another defense to the suits. we'll see. i would hope that folks won't sue for this. it seems unfair in the absence of compulsory attendance at something, and only the gov't can compel that.
To hell with Notre Dame
This statement can’t be said enough
We’re pretty far from North Dakota...
Negs? Aw, come on, that's funny.
ND had also said they'll probably have fans in the stands for football games, just likely not at full capacity.
What's the statud of the state of IN? Smart to start the semester early- in the MW and NE I'd try to end by Halloween if possible, maybe come back in March and go thru June. Not possible logistically I'm sure but IDK
I'm pretty sure Indiana is almost entirely open.
Indiana is 50 to 75% open right now. It depends on where you’re at. Here in B-Town we just opened to 50% this last Saturday. Indy is the same basic way. There’s a couple areas like that as well, but the rest are moving on to about 75% open. By the end of May most of Indiana will be open.
B-Town?
Bloomington, I think.
Ah, thanks
ND has a student base less than 1/3 the size of UM and is not in a city setting.
On top of that, Indiana is currently in worse shape than is Michigan and has the least educated population in the US which tells me they won't be practicing social distancing there between now and then.
Something tells me that the situation in SB in August won't be great.
There is too much focus on confirmed cases. That's very dependent on local testing policies. Look at the curve of hospitalizations.
This is a critical point. My hospital sends out statistics nightly and the current number of hospitalized COVID patients is where it was seven weeks ago after plateauing in early April. The majority of the current patients are long term ventilator patients.
On a related note I’m conducting a non scientific survey re: a COVID vaccine in my pediatric practice. To date the overwhelming majority (>80%) of the parents would not rush to vaccinate their kids if/when a vaccine becomes available. I know the limits of sample size but this is very disappointing. BTW these are people whose children are fully vaccinated.
I wouldn't either. This vaccine will be rushed into production faster than any other drug in the history of the modern world. My kids are at extremely low risk of dying from coronavirus. I'd much rather have them risk coronavirus than complications from a rushed vaccine.
Yeah, I’m with you. I will sign up for the vaccine for myself the day it’s available, because the risk to me seems higher without vaccine than with it, but the risk to small children (I’ll have a 4-5 year old depending when the vaccine comes out) seems awfully low. Yes, there have been a few outlier cases, and my opinion may change as more becomes known, but I’d want more evidence this vaccine is safe and effective for kids before giving it to my own.
I’m not an anti-vaxxer by any stretch — we’re heading to the 4-year checkup in a couple of weeks despite the fact my area is unlikely to have barely entered our first phase of reopening by then solely to make sure we're up-to-date on vaccines. But this vaccine is going to be rushed. That seems appropriate for adults (and maybe even teens) given the relative risks, but seems less so for the 2-10 crowd.
Agree with this sentiment. We get our flu shots every year and the kids are 100% mmr, etc vacced.
But a vaccine developed in less than a year is a non starter for me and you better show me some solid evidence of safety before by late summer 2021- that’s the 18 month window which would be record speed as it is.
It's still probably a good bet for anyone over 80 or with underlying health issues relating to the heart, lungs, or obesity.
What are you talking about with Indiana? The least educated population? I have never seen Indiana rated the lowest on any study regarding most and least educated states.
I saw a study in 2016 that had it last.
That's interesting considering every study I can find from 2016 has Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia as the bottom four.
I'm excited for EMU football this year. Take the MAC!!
I hope this goes well. I fear it will lead to COVID-19 explosions. I hope I'm wrong. It's interesting to see how much risk people are willing to tolerate with respect to possibly killing themselves and others. It's even more interesting to compare that tolerance to what we saw in the aftermath of 9/11. The fast and violent death of 2,600 people obviously registers far more to many than does the slower (but still pretty fast) death of 90,000.
It likely will lead to spikes but the illness is not serious for the vast majority of people who get it. Mortality rate will be probably settle into a range a notch above seasonal flu. Particularly high risk individuals need to shelter. It sucks for them, it does, but everybody else can’t just stop.
I will defer to epidemiologists, but I don't think you can successfully keep some people safe when others are spreading it around by more-or-less going about their business. And the mortality rate has to be viewed in the context of the infection rate, which I'm not sure we have a handle on.
I will concede that this ultimately all comes down to risk tolerance in a sense. But I am struck by degree of tolerance we're seeing.
It’s driven to a large degree by certain realities. People have to go back to work and kids need developmental opportunities for that to happen. Kids also have to continue to develop or a generation or two is going to be all fucked up. The reality of Fall 2020, where workforces are operating at near full capacity and kids have to have somewhere to go is coming into focus. People CANNOT continue living like there are now, it is a literal impossibly. The novelty has worn off and it isn’t sustainable.
You absolutely can keep these people safe while the rest of society opens up. Have them shelter in their homes and get their food delivered. They never need to interact with another person until herd immunity has been developed.
Absolutely! When the average death rate is 75 and most victims have underlying issues, it is up to the most susceptible people and their care-givers to "self-quarantine" and let the rest of the world get back to work.
I was walking with a friend who is an esteemed physician at UMHS just the other day and he referred to people like you as being idiots. He suggested that those of you who are in denial about the severity of CV-19 ought to sign waivers agreeing to forgo medical care should you become infected.
Seems fair to me -- what do you think?
Uh no.... I have health insurance and this isn’t Nazi Germany.
And your doctor friend is in the minority. Most doctors I know think it is time to stop freaking out because they are about to be out of work because they have nobody to treat with like regular conditions.
Look, you can be pissed if you want but this is not a sustainable state of affairs. You are now in a firm minority who thinks we should continue going culturally bankrupt.
Pissed? Nah, just calling out your nonsense.
Last I saw, 72% of Michiganders supported the governor's policies. It would appear, in addition to lacking good science instincts and education, that you're behind the power curve when it comes to basic math, too!
I suspect you're not a UM-AA alumnus.
BTW, my buddy is far smarter than you. He started at Johns Hopkins when he was 16 and now runs a heart transplant program. He took time off from doing that and helped out with CV patients at UM Hospital in April until having to go into quarantine for three weeks due to a potential exposure.
He's brilliant and, like I indicated previously, i'm gonna listen to him over you every single day of the week and twice on Sunday.
You still think polls are a thing, huh? I learned my lesson about polls 3 years ago. I have a pretty diverse social circle and would say her approval rating is holding steady at like 18%. And her order is going to be vacated, it is just a matter of when. It could be as early as this week and that’s why she abruptly started her about face today.