That picture is amazing/telling/scary.
MSU F Branden Dawson returning to school
Honestly can't believe Izzo hasn't had at least 3 self-induced heart attacks already.
Better at MSU than D-league I guess
that they put their fists through a table when they get frustrated.
That and he doesn't actually teach them skills they'll be able to use in the NBA.
Am i the only one surprised Dawson was a 5 star? Underachiever.
List of MSU 5 star recruits since 2002:
Some 4 star top-50 recruits:
Gary Harris and Shannon Brown are the only ones to declare early for the NBA Draft since 2002. I think Marquise Gray or Delvon Roe was the biggest bust of them all.
Coach K's list probably looks similar. They both have a gift for convincing H.S. AA to stay in school longer for the betterment of the school
Izzo has practically none. Gary Harris may be his first in a long time since Zach Randolph. I don't think you can even compare Izzo to Coach K.
Izzo's main successes individually were 10ish years ago with Zach Randolph and Jason Richardson - both elite NBA bodies. Since then I think the high point was Shannon Brown and now Gary Harris. Harris came in ready to be a NBA player - he looked like the same guy in game 4 of his freshman year as game 25 of his sophomore year. His shooting regressed year over year both in total FG% and 3 PG% even with Payne taking away massive attention. So even Harris is not a "success story" in development - he was a guy that was just ready to be a NBA player and would have been a one and done if his shoulders hadnt popped out every 3rd game in his freshman year.
Draymond Green would probably be Izzo's best case of "development" - but that again took 4 years and he was a 4 star.
If you want to be a cynic about Izzo you can make the case he has taken a lot of 4 and 5 star talent, not developed them quickly, and benefited from playing a lot of 4-5 star guys in their JR and SR years playing against NCAA competition where those players' peers were in the NBA 2 years earlier. So in a way it is brilliant I guess - but it seems to be reaping itself now when more players of that caliber he used to get want to be one and done or two and done.
best years are behind him. There is no doubt that his future is not so stellar.
I am amaized that he can keep his maid to stay in that shit hole town.
I saw this article posted in /r/collegebasketball.
Gary Harris is only the 5th player to leave early for the NBA under Izzo.
When that point is made how in the world can a kid who has aspirations of going to the NBA sign with MSU over a place like Michigan? If Beilein's draft success continues from his development then Michigan will finally start getting those players that go to Kentucky and Kansas. That will be scary for the competition.
He lost out on some big time recruits the last 2 years that MSU may have led for at one point in time: Jabari Parker, Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, Cliff Alexander, Tyler Ulis, Kevon Looney, and Devin Booker. All of them are Midwest kids that passed on MSU.
Beilein has had more players leave early for the NBA in the last 5 years than Tom Izzo in his entire 19 year career.
He also lost Erazem Lorbek, although I think he went to Europe instead of the NBA.
Beilein should be able to go into every high schooler's house saying that since 2010, I have had more players declare early (6) than Tom Izzo has in his entire career. Incredible.
that is true but Coach K also has been doing it longer. J Richardson is also a Izzo success story.
And it's not close really. Izzo has had only 5 players leave early for the NBA in his whole 19 year career. I think Duke had 5 in the last 10 years. If Parker and Hood go pro as expected, that will make 7 players early to the NBA in the last 10 years.
Only 6 players in Izzo's entire 19 year career at MSU have scored more than 1,000 points in the NBA. Draymond Green will most likely join this group next year. Duke has 12 players in that group since just 2002 with another 4-5 players likely to join this group next year. Izzo can't even sniff the same success that Coach K has had with players in the NBA in the last 10 years. You could make the argument that Izzo is one of the worst elite college coaches for NBA player development based on his career track record.
You could field an NBA All-Star team with Coach K's early entries; you might be able to piece together a decent CBA team with Izzo's.
you are correct about that
To be fair, Delvon Roe was hampered by a pretty nasty knee injury. I'm no fan of his, but he didn't exactly get a fair shot at fully developing his game.
so, so many injuries.
But in the big picture, it doesn't change the conclusion. Roe is not the outlier here.
To be fair to Roe he did have micro fracture surgery before he hit campus. The dude retired in college because he couldn't even walk without pain. He had a number of procedures on both knees.
Or Lucas for that matter? I'd add Summers to any bust list. He got worse every year under Izzo. Roe was a good player with knees that couldn't hold up.
Lucas was a 4 star, per Rivals #38 in the country and the 6th PG. So consider him a Chatman level recruit.
Appling was a HS All American of which I believe there are about 24? 4 star also #38 in the nation.
Point is Izzo has received a boatload of recruits in the 10-50 area, and you'd think a lot more of them would have healthy NBA careers. Between Randolph/Richardson and Gary Harris I think you basically had Shannon Brown and Alan Anderson?
I don't know where a "5" star ends and "4" star begins in the basketball world - I would assume somwhere around 30 since Irvin was a 5 star as the #25 recruit. So he was barely a 5 star at Rivals rank #25 where Lucas and Appling barely missed being a 4 star.
And as we all know, recruiting rankings are not science i.e. slot 22 is better than slot 29 because experts say so - the difference between Lucas/Appling at #38 in the country and Irvin at #25 in the country is some people's opinion and a sliver of talent.
I think that counts for being a 5 star. I didn't meticulously pore over the recruiting rankings, but I thought both were 5 stars. If they weren't, I don't imagine they missed by much. Both were pretty much consensus top 30-50 players.
This notion that Izzo is a good Xs and Os/Player development/"More with less" coach, is so, so pathetic.
Truly one of the most overrated coaches, and he gets slobbed on way too much by Michigan fans.
Probably an insult... At least I would take it as an insult... Five stars pour to the NBA these days after 1-2 years. Says something about Izzo's recent development of high quality players... Outside of Draymond Green and Gary Harris (obviously next season), name an NBA player from MSU that has flourished at the next level from Izzo's coaching over the past ten years.
I looked and there are 4 NBA players currently playing who went to MSU (they apparently still consider Richardson but he hasn't suited up yet this year), and really the only major success is Randolph, who bolted early. Hell, Michigan has about the same breakdown with just Beilein, and they'll probably have two more next with Nik and Glenn.
Isn't part of the reason he gets so many to stay for so long is because a lot of them take a long time to develop under Izzo?
don't develop/regress ...yes.
Izzo does less with more talent than anyone lately.
Or it could have something to do with Izzo being a cork snorkling douche bag. I worked with a guy who was top sales, and every time he had an excellent person on his sales team come up for promotion, he would work aggressively to suppress those he wanted to continue to help benefit him personally, while letting others go. I had the same job and I'd always put my teammates' long term interests first, much as Beilein does.
Izzo's a self-serving douche who I'd bet doesn't do half as much as Beilein selflessly does to encourage and help and counsel his best players to go pro. He holds onto them zealously for his own purposes.
[All my own speculation, but fun to write regardless.]
5 star HS All American - probably could have left after his frosh year and been drafted higher than this year when he flashed huge athleticism. Has not developed a shot outside of 5 feet, nor any handle. Great athleticism in the NCAA level but when facing future NBA players at Kentucky, UConn, or UNC he was muzzled. He stands out against non NBA type players though due to sheer athleticism and now he will be a 22 year old playing a lot of 18-19 year olds.
He was projected mid to late 2nd, so not sure why many thought he was declaring. Other than he has a child. He is a European type talent right now - not skilled enough to do much damage at the 3, and kinda small for a NBA 4, bit of a tweener. Could be a defensive type of stopper though for a good NBA team.
Will create a very experienced MSU lineup next year
5 - JR Costello, 4 - SR Dawson, 3 - JR Valentine, 2 - Open (maybe Alvin Elvis dude), 1 - SR Trice
Offense will run through Valentine as he is the only guy who can create his own shot.
Pretty experienced yes, but man, that looks like a significant downgrade from last year. Looks like this year's OSU squad; just not a ton of offensive efficiency there; probably pretty good defensively.
Oh big time. There are like 10 guys in the NCAA who match up with a 5 star senior big man like Payne...and most are 19 years old and not in the Big 10.
Honestly if Dawson left that group is hot garbage outside of Valentine. Trice is a good shooter but UConn pressed him into oblivion. We dont play that style but they could not get into their offense for 15-20 seconds with Appling out. Costello is just a "he is there" big man. Kaminsky can shoot well it seems but that is all he does.
Looking ahead a year they will be very young and we'll see how Izzo "develops". He has been loaded with upperclassmen for a long time and the following year (2015-2016) seems the first he will have to deal with what Beilein is doing annually. They have a top 100 PG coming in and a good player out of Ohio, but from here unless recruiting changes quickly he is replacing HS All Americans with "plucky 3 stars" by and large.
In the NBA he'd be kind of small to play SF, way undersized for PF. As you said, he just looks like a potential role player as a defensive stopper.
If he's the one creating shots for MSU, I'll be thrilled. If they develop some of the other guys to create shots for him, he'll have a really good year. His draft stock depends mostly on Valentine and Trice.
All tables in east lansing, beware.
at 6'6 and more of a post player he has no nba position. he has to prove he at least has a mid range game problem is that's not where he is effective for Izzo.
so you really think izzo's going to put him out on the wing next year to help him along? bahahaha! he'll be posting and boarding down low just like this year.
faill off since frosh year (injuries,punishment,etc...). Don't know how he's going to improve anymore,when most izzo's recurits don't. They seem to rigress at a certain point.
It means they will rigress (which I always assumed was a female rig)--duh.
To the poster's point, though, I don't follow Staee closely enough to know how their highly-ranked four year players develop (I pay much more attention to Izzo's wining, because it is funnier). However, as others much more astute than me have pointed out, unless Dawson's NBA desirability is fully developed (shooting, post game, etc.), the longer he stays in school the less appealing his potential will be to the NBA. That, of course, applies to all college players.
Pretty damning to Izzo's player development that he can't get kids to be able to leave early or make kids into NBA material. Converse is that all the success down the stretch is due to lots of experience because hardly anyone can actually leave to make a living playing basketball.
you really haven't developed as much as you'd hoped since high school, but surely another year of my training will do the trick. stay in school!
But true. Talk about a lack of player development. Which Sparty improved their draft "stock" by staying in the program longer?
is Adrien Payne, but he was a 5* recruit who developed into a more well rounded game by his senior year. Other than that, no one really.
It seems like this guy hasn't improved at all since he showed up at MSU. He is very athletic, but not very skilled. I expected him to improve to be a pretty good NBA player at some point due to his athletic abilities....Guess not.
Can't shoot to save his life.
acl tear didn't help him......but yea he needs about 1000 jumpers a day starting now.
He's improved every year he has been at MSU. He went from a 6'6 PF in high school that dominated kids with much less athleticism to a formidable defender, great rebounder, and a developing jump shot.
What nobody seems to be mentioning are all of the kids that go early and go in the 2nd round, undrafted, or even in the first round and end up in the NBADL or Europe within a couple of years. At some point, people have to realize that making a couple million is almost nothing after their handlers (accountant, agent, lawyer) get their cut. Throw some money at family and friends and these players have nothing by the time they're 25. Sad but true.
So while guys like Calipari shove kids into the NBA to make room for the next crop (all while knowing those guys are screwed) there are other coaches out there that develop players as much as possible while they earn a degree. Payne is a great example of a 4 year player that will come into the NBA much more complete. 10, 20 years ago he would be considered a top pick. Nowadays? Well, he lacks the hype and marketability. So his draft stock will fall. However, don't be surprised to see Payne and guys like Payne remain in the league while the 10 ppg "diaper dandy" freshman is out of the league within a season or two.
Payne is a great example of a player who should have gotten better before year 4. He is a great example of a 4 year player that couldn't go pro because he wasn't good enough to go until after he graduated. I'm not sure why you think that is a good job by Izzo.
Also, I love how Dawson got better every year. I mean, I guess technically he got better from 2012 to 2013 because he averaged a half point better and 1.5 rebounds better. So he's got that going for him. But when you miss the hardest part of your schedule (half of the B10 season) in 2013 because you punch a table and get your numbers because of your non-conference games, I don't think you can say he improved. He did have amazing games against Harvard and Virginia though. So he must be improved I guess because those games were at the end of the year.
Here are Payne's stats.
Payne could have gone as a junior. He came back and developed a better outside shot and became a more complete player. Does it really matter if he leaves as a junior or senior? This way he has a better shot to stick around the NBA and come in well rounded. Payne's junior year stats are pretty comparable to GRIII's. Personally, I think he made a mistake going pro and should have returned. Even as a Spartan, I dislike seeing so much talent all around leave the college ranks even if it is UM.
Not every 5 star guy is a one or two and done. Some guys stick around for all 4 years and end up being great pros. Why this doesn't go reported in the media is strange to me. Perhaps it's beause it isn't flashy and doesn't sell? We seem to think if you leave early that you're going to be a great player and get drafted high. Then, as I said in my original post, those players just seem to drift away and are forgotten within a couple of seasons.
I would assume this bubble of early talent leaving will burst soon. Someone has to wake up and realize the NBADL and Europe are filled with 20 year old kids that washed out almost immediately from the NBA becuase guys like LeBron aren't just going to give up a roster spot because some kid in college that was 19 averaged 10 points a game with a few rebounds and had some "wicked cool dunks". Those guys are a dime a dozen.
typically take 4%--and that's the biggest cut. A couple of million dollars is a couple of million dollars. The fact that some may blow it is really a different issue.
If the NBA doesn't work out for him, he can always try the NFL.
He would have been nuts to leave, this doesn't really have much to do with Izzo convincing guys to stay longer. MAYBE he goes in the 2nd round if he left, but a guy with wing size with neither a jumper nor the ability to break guys down off the dribble doesn't really have anywhere to play in the NBA.
....makes zero sense. Guy has a bad injury history and has been playing out of position for 3 years. Him coming back does virtually nothing to his NBA stock. Tom always lucks out on these decisions. Tough swings between us losing 2 more Sophsand Dekker ..Kaminsky and Dawson staying. We will always be young on the court to everyone else's elder statesmen. Frustrating but it is what it is.
What other position would he play? The 3? He has no perimeter game.
I bet he'll be a beck of a WR if he apply himself.
Would-be second round pick this year; will be a second round pick next year. Zero incentive to stay.
95+% of college players will not improve their nba draft stock this next year.
Man, now it's an insult to say a coach is good at getting kids to stay for the betterment of the program. Yeah, I much prefer our guys leaving. This is enormous for Msu, they would have been lost without him next year. And for those saying, why is this news, he was a 2nd round pick if he left, well I give you Mcadoo, nick Johnson and well you know the other guy.
Dawson isn't staying for the betterment of the program. He's staying because he's not good enough to leave.
Is Dawson gonna be pissed when Izzo takes the Pistons' job...
Seems like a huge area of weakness
He may punch the point, or miss and hit the wall. Again.
That is OK. Michigan will continue beating them next year.
I did a quick check, and I think 4 of the top 20 in Payne's class didn't declare early, including Payne.
That may be a big list of 4-5 star players under Izzo who disappointed (I had forgotten Marquise Gray, the original Izzo underachieving forward), but he did have Dray Green overachieve.
Green created the izzo , I'm gonna hang at the top of key and jack three's offense we saw AP run so well against Uconn. Was it fatigue or a new style of lazy big man???
Although many here have denigrated Brandon Dawson's overall abilities, few have suggested he can't box out and rebound. My question:
Absent Mitch, who on M's current roster --- including incoming recruits --- is capable of contesting Brandon under the boards? The candidates are
- Max Beilfeldt 6'7" 245 lbs. Maybe, if his skillset suddenly blooms into something not heretofore seen. Max has the size, but is probably relegated to a backup role for the remaining 2 years of his M career.
- Mark Donnal 6'9" 230 lbs. A redshirt frosh with tons of upside potential but has nowhere near Brandon's rebounding experience. After Mark gets a year of experience of his own and gets the benefit of Jon Sanderson, he could be a force under the boards.
- Ricky Doyle 6'9" 230 lbs. Tall enough, but as an incoming frosh really no competition for Brandon. Again, in another year or two and another 20 pounds, look out.
- DJ Wilson 6'8" 200 lbs. Again tall enough, but so thin that Brandon would just brush him aside. DJ needs weight training at the intensive-care level.
So Brandon returns to Staee, Kaminsky returns to UW, and probably a couple of those trees at Iowa will be back. Thus if Mitch goes, M will have its rebounding chores cut out for it in 2014-2015.