Mike Greenberg thinks we’re delusional
It’s not harbaugh, it’s ridiculous expectations. Is he right or wrong?
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:26 PM ^
Greenberg is either the smartest guy that ever lived, the dumbest guy that ever lived, or somewhere in between.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:30 PM ^
All three all at once
December 4th, 2019 at 12:45 AM ^
Schrödinger's sportswriter...
December 4th, 2019 at 8:36 AM ^
Mike Greenberg is so smart he picked us to win last week, now literally says "we shouldn't expect to beat OSU".
December 4th, 2019 at 8:55 AM ^
That's called a "come to Jesus" moment.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
More accurately a “come to Moses” moment.
December 5th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
I had my "come to Jesus" moment after last year's debacle.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^
Which, ironically, mirrors about what half of us here.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:27 AM ^
Exactly. ?
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:26 PM ^
Great coaches bring programs up to Elite status, ESPECIALLY programs like Michigan with spending power, facilities, history, largest stadium, alumni base. Michigan is a very marketable program and can be at an elite level with a great coach.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:33 PM ^
It's hard to become elite when you have another elite program not only in your same conference, but in your same division - and that school has comparable resources, facilities and such. We have advantages over a lot of programs, but not really any over OSU. We pretty much need them to shoot themselves in the foot.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
OSU isn’t our lone impediment. Idk if you noticed but Michigan wasn’t going anywhere this year even with a OSU W. Did everyone forget our season technically ended in Happy Valley? Harbaugh isn’t going 11-1 every year folks. If his only losses were to a loaded 2017 PSU squad and 5 OSU teams, then the fan base wouldn’t be apathetic/mad/settling for excuses.
Harbaugh is losing to Wisconsin every other year and PSU every other year now. Add in the uninspired bowl performances and this is where we are. Nobody will give af about SP+ rankings outside of this blog. They remember wins and losses.
Let’s look at 2020:
@Washington; Petersen pulling a Stoops and giving the reigns to a young hotshot coach in Lake; I’ll give this game a 40-60 Washington advantage since Harbaugh and road games are roller coasters against good teams. Washington will be good especially if Eason returns. This goes without mentioning M breaking in a new QB, new defense potentially etc etc. “transition costs” Think Utah/ND Ls.
Ball State and Arkansas State; Ws
Wisconsin; W given their losses
PSU; Should be a W at home and they lose that Dline, Shorter and Hamler
@MSU; W, roster depleted and Dantonios schtick is over 70-30 M advantage
@Minny; might be the first relevant Jug game since 2005; I think they lose their stud wideouts but Tanner Morgan is back; Michigan should win road woes and all on sheer talent ...W 60-40 M advantage
Purdue; Might be an IU like scare at home if the secondary struggles against healthy Moore n co... 75-25 M
Maryland, Rutgers; Ws next
IU; at home 80-20 W even with Penix Jr as their QB also a home game
@OSU; L 5% chance this will even be a 2 possession game
11-1 best case scenario
10-2 most likely with Ls to Washington and OSU, who might end up being the 2 best teams on the schedule again
December 4th, 2019 at 6:42 AM ^
Who are the best four programs in the country in recent years?
Alabama (SEC)
Clemson (ACC)
OSU (Big Ten)
Oklahoma (Big 12)
Four teams in four different conferences. A few years earlier, there was Oregon in the Pac 12.
Clemson's emergence coincided with FSU's decline, and before that, Alabama's emergence coincided with Florida's decline. Oklahoma's dominance has kept Texas from emerging, and Georgia has been stifled by Bama.
Of course you can have the odd exceptional year here and there. LSU may be experiencing that now (Orgeron's career record was 41-36 before this season). It's also conceivable that Bama, as Saban nears the end, could be in the early stages of decline.
But this pattern usually holds. There is one dominant team per conference and especially per division. You very rarely see parity between two elite programs in a division at once.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:22 AM ^
Michigan is not going to lose to Washington with a first year head coach next year.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:26 AM ^
Have you ever watched Michigan play on the west coast?
December 4th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
No kidding. This goes back many years. For example:
2000: Loss at UCLA
2001: Loss at Washington
2003: Loss at Oregon
December 4th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
That was an issue under Lloyd Carr.
UM hasn't had a regular season West Coast game since Oregon in 2003 under Carr, but they have played the Pac12 on the road a couple of times under Harbaugh and are 1-1.
The last Pac12 team UM faced on the road was Colorado in 2016, UM won.
Prior to that was Utah in 2015, UM lost (Thomas Pick 6).
December 4th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
When did Michigan go on the road to Colorado? Especially weird since I have a memory of watching them play live in Ann Arbor. Am I really losing it already ??
December 4th, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
it was in 1995 or 1996. 1994 was the Hail Mary game in AA. The Boulder trip was shortly there after. And we nearly blew that game as well.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
The 2016 game vs. CU was in Ann Arbor. I don't believe we've played in Boulder since '96.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:54 PM ^
Tell that to LSU and Auburn.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:51 AM ^
Here's Auburn's record:
2015: 7-6
2016: 8-5
2017: 10-4
2018: 8-5
2019: 9-3
You like Auburn because of just 2 of the 65 games.
Here's LSU's record:
2015: 9-3
2016: 8-4
2017: 9-4
2018: 10-3
2019: 12-0
You like LSU because of one season out of the past 5 years.
Here's Michigan's record:
2015: 10-3
2016: 10-3 <--- robbed of beating OSU by bad call. Lost 3 games by total of 5 points.
2017: 8-5
2018: 10-3
2019: 9-3
December 4th, 2019 at 6:22 AM ^
Auburn and LSU have to play each other, and also Bama and A&M every year. Auburn plays Georgia every year and LSU plays Florida every year. Each plays a challenging non-conference name. I'm not trying to be the "SEC SEC SEC" crowd, but that schedule is far more difficult than what we're facing.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:26 AM ^
^^^ Reluctant SEC SEC SEC crowd member ^^^
December 4th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
Playing Iowa(#16), UW(#8), PSU(#10), ND(#15) and OSU(#1) ain't no cake walk.
As far as OOC schedule:
Auburn played #13 Oregon.
LSU didn't play a top 25 (CFP) OOC.
Georgia played #15 ND.
Bama didn't play a top 25 (CFP) OOC.
Auburn played Oregon(#13), LSU(#2), Georgia(#4) and Bama(#12).
LSU played Florida(#9), Auburn(#11) and Bama(#12).
A&M isn't top 25 this year and they've only been so once in the last 5 years (2018).
December 4th, 2019 at 9:25 AM ^
To go a step further in support of your post. Our records have been similar to the past 5 years since I’ve been a fan 41 years ago. Our expectations were set high because of the coach we begged for and got. Outside of his horrible Ohio record, he has been on par with the Legend.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
Over the last 11 years, since Alabama began winning national championships and became a dynasty, LSU has managed to beat them 3 times. More importantly, their biggest rival Auburn has beaten them 4 times and won a national championship themselves.
All this "boohoo it's too hard to win with a powerhouse in your division" is nonsense excuses for why Michigan can't get the job done. I'm tired of losing to these guys.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:07 PM ^
Would you trade a win against OSU this year if it meant we we’re 2-6 in B10 play last year, went 6-6 overall and needed a win in a shitty bowl in order to have a winning record. Because Auburn needed to beat Memphis in a bowl game in Harbaugh’s first year at Michigan to not have a losing record.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:12 PM ^
I would definitely take LSU's record, better winning %age, one win over Ala and division title, most likely also in CFP. Auburn's is a little dicier, I'd take 9-3 with win over OSU, as Auburn did this year with it's main rival. 2017, Auburn also beat Ala, won the division, but has an extra loss because they played in the SEC cg. I think any Michigan fan would take 10-4 with a win over OSU even if it meant losing in big cg. Auburn also had a home and home with Clemson (both losses) and NC games vs. Oregon and Washington (both wins). ND is probably the best NC team Michigan has played the last five years, maybe the Utah team in 2015 and neither are as good as the teams Auburn has played.
December 4th, 2019 at 6:02 AM ^
I'm still wait and see on LSU. Orgeron isn't that great of a HC and Burrow is an all time QB for them. Let's check back in 2-3 years
December 4th, 2019 at 7:03 AM ^
LSU is a classic example of an outstanding QB elevating a program. The lack of QB development at UM is a real issue. Shea underperforming until the last 3-4 games was incredibly costly.
December 4th, 2019 at 7:40 AM ^
Burrow = Shea getting a 5th year
It’s not like Burrow is some phenom. He had to develop throughout his college years and then broke out as a 5th year senior. He’s certainly no Tua who as a freshman was one of the best QBs in the country (or Fields, as a sophomore).
December 4th, 2019 at 8:04 AM ^
Clemson is also an example of a QB elevating a program. They would lose every national staged game prior to Deshaun Watson.
December 4th, 2019 at 8:20 AM ^
Hmmmm...where else have we seen an oustsanding QB elevating a coach and program? Sometimes a coach just LUCKs into one and then everyone expects the magic to happen in perpetuity.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:24 AM ^
LSU is a classic example of an outstanding QB elevating a program. The lack of QB development at UM is a real issue.
How often do "outstanding" qbs come along? Is it a realistic expectation that Harbaugh should have developed an "outstanding" qb in the five years he has been here (especially given what he had to start with and very little time/influence over his first year/transitional recruiting class)?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
Quite frankly that was the expectation. Just read the expectations thread that was reposted here a couple days ago. JJ McCarthy might be that guy tho.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
Based on an N of 2? Luck and Kaep?
Was that realistic?
December 4th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
Harbaugh has Luck and Kaep and got Alex Smith PAID.
That’s an N of 3 which I bet you is higher than average for a HC. Was he not announced as a QB Guru/Whisperer?
People were bringing up his time coaching Rich Gannon at Oakland even.
He has failed finding that QB at Michigan. He broke JOK and Speight. Broke Shea and then fixed him too late. Juries out on Milton and Caff
December 4th, 2019 at 11:03 AM ^
Baumgardner has a good article at The Athletic (paywalled):
A few key quotes:
If that number (#20 SP+) holds through Michigan’s bowl game, the 2019 unit will rank as the most efficient offense of Harbaugh’s Michigan tenure.
His defenses have ranked No. 1, No. 3, No. 2 and No. 8 nationally in total yards allowed per game, respectively. Brown’s defenses have, whether you want to admit it or not, always been pretty organized.
I get asked a lot about why Michigan, at the very least, can’t be like Auburn when it comes to the Ohio State rivalry. Gus Malzahn won his third Iron Bowl on Saturday. Not because his defense shut Alabama down (the Tide had 515 yards), but because his team found a way to score 48 points.
Michigan has to close a talent gap, yes. But Michigan also needs to be a more disciplined, more consistent football team overall. You don’t get to make all those mistakes in a massive game like that and then simply shrug and claim talent is the only issue at hand when you get blown out (Michigan didn’t claim this, by the way, these are my words). Michigan had what it needed on this roster to be 10-1 or 11-0 heading into Saturday’s game against Ohio State. Those losses happened. And they didn’t happen because of a talent gap. They happened, in part, because Michigan’s year-round process of preparation cannot suffer any setbacks or misses. Those are also contributors to pushing one’s self from good to great.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:28 PM ^
I kind of agree. I'm good with Harbaugh if he gets 10 wins and beats Sparty every year.
Ohio State is clearly on another level. I don't expect to beat them.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:28 PM ^
Mike Greenberg is terrible.
December 4th, 2019 at 4:10 AM ^
Mike Greenberg just wants Harbaugh to coach the Jets.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:28 PM ^
and I think Mike Greenburg is a turd. So there's that.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:32 PM ^
He went to Medill.
December 3rd, 2019 at 11:33 PM ^
I don't want to read this. Most older posters like myself grew used to us beating Ohio State regardless of "stated advantage that OSU" had.
The citizens of Michigan were once a people who aspired to be the leaders and the best. Michigan is the reason why many facets of modern football exist. However, right now we are a people that are willing to settle.
Brian wrote his article explaining why OSU has an advantage. In other words, they are willing to get unethical to win at football. In this case you have one of two choices, get dirty with them or expose them. I have never heard anyone around here talking about exposure.
If people assume and communicate the problem with the NCAA is a schools willingness to break the rules; there will be evidence of this. If there is evidence, there are enough Michigan graduates in influences of authority to make a difference.
If you throw your hands up in the air and think either we should just let OSU run all over us while breaking the rules then we really should exit the sport or at least the conference.
One solution to ponder, if adults who could be paid are being forced to play college football and they are, mainly due to NFL rules, then why not approach the fledging XFL to allow teams to draft players at the age of 18. This would allow players who don't want to go to school and can earn a living to skip college entirely and potentially bring more parity to the college game.
The issue is money in college football and the fact that you have marketable athletes that can't make any of it. Brian's solution is pay the players as he thinks this bring a balance of power back to Michigan. I would prefer all the professional athletes who are currently paid (under the table) exit college football. The football program is after all an extension of the university and not its own entity.
December 4th, 2019 at 4:42 AM ^
This is exactly the type of delusion the whole country sees about your fanbase that you don’t. You just can’t fathom OSU is so superior that you fumble around for ridiculous ideas to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. “Well if players could go right to the XFL.” OSU isnt recruiting academic idiots who simply are passing time. They had a higher academic progress rate than Michigan. They have NFL ready players that decide to stay another year rather than go pro, many of them, while you have players transferring out every year. You come up with these threads where you all ponder ways to compete with OSU. “Well maybe if we could pay players.” It’s pathetic. The other day I read a thread about how the playoffs could be expanded to benefit Michigan. “Well maybe we could have a 16 team field.” Then I saw some I guess realize that may not be enough, and ask for 32 teams. Sorry Michigan, college football isn’t sitting around thinking of ways for you guys to be mediocre and still make the playoffs. And by the way, this whole expose them idea you have is already happening. You think it’s a mere coincidence that out of the blue, the Chase Young thing comes up, right before they play Maryland? People are trying to bring them down, and what they come up with is basically nothing, and then your fanbase uses that as some proof of cheating. Are you really that delusional to think you don’t have players that borrow money, or sell their own gear? You think because there hasn’t been an issue, it isn’t happening, when in reality, nobody cares.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:20 AM ^
But there have been issues. If there were no issues, Tressel would never had to step down. If people were really trying to expose O$U the story would have come out before a game that matters. Like PSU or Michigan. The entire state of Ohio has become so obsessed with this college football team the fanbase has compromised their own ethics and have determined the infractions are "basically nothing."
What's pathetic are the trailer park hustlers like yourself who ignore the lot rent to your trailer park and use the money to buy a Chase Young jersey. You're the reason that O$U has burgeoned into a nearly $2billion franchise and cheating has become nothing more than a cost of doing business.
So congratulations. Enjoy the fact that you worship a football factory that has literally no bearing on your life and troll boards like this one.
December 4th, 2019 at 5:28 AM ^
Guztave, so psu and Wisconsin are cheating also?
December 4th, 2019 at 8:24 AM ^
Tressel went down because he covered for players who sold their own merchandise for tattoos. And for the record, he should have been fired, I’m not saying otherwise. Even stupid, archaic rules are rules none-the-less. He was put in a bad situation, he was provided information about a stupid NCAA rule being broken, and protected his players. My guess is he would do it again. This is the type of shit you guys cling to to feel better about yourselves. You guys continue to make claims about this institutional cheating, as if OSU gives houses and cars and bags of cash so players would come there, and your big evidence is what, players selling their own memorabilia for tattoos? Then you spew out ignorant garbage about the Trailor Park I must live in because I happen to be an OSU fan. And you claim moral high ground? Hilarious. Some of your fans get it, they understand the real issues plaguing your team. It’s the delusional like you that have to tell yourself fairy tales about the evil OSU cheaters, with players who apparently never go to class, while your players playfully skip to class with books under their arms. Whatever helps you sleep better at night. Call it trolling all you want, something the truth hurts.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:28 AM ^
Actually Bucknut36- Tress had issues at Youngstown State as well. Players getting 10k in cash, cars too. He is the one who brought the "look the other way culture" to OSU. Do you honestly believe in your heart that it stopped with tattoos, and selling stuff? What about Jack Maxton Chevrolet just allowing players to drive around brand new vehicles decked out with rims? Even your very own Mark Titus has stated that when he was in school and on the bball team several players were driving around campus in ridiculous vehicles. Then Urban comes in from the $EC and he obviously goes with flow because, well, that's how the SEC operated as well.
I've read anonymous coaching polls that have been put on on the subject of college football and cheating and 60% of the coaches polled believed that 0-10% of the college football programs are cheating. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to take everything I have just said, and combine that with OSU being on an historic run. ADD in the face that over the past 3 years there have been 90 something 5 star recruits and 55 of them have went to only 5 programs..... hmm those 5 schools are LSU,BAMA,GEORGIA, CLEMSON and OSU.
So let me ask you this. If 60% of coaches believe there is cheating at less than 10% of college programs, and the vast majority of 5 star recruits go to only 5 schools. Are you saying that OSU is the outlier in that group 5 and is the only one recruiting with the big boys but doing it the right way?