I'm wondering how good of a defensive rebounding team Syracuse is and whether we'll have Oreb chances out of their zone. I don't think Syr is going to push the pace so it seems like we'll really have to crash the boards and box out MCW.
Michigan vs. Syracuse: Your Initial Thoughts (8:49p tip)
well, they play a zone, so not very good at rebounding
They were the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the BE, and 62nd in the country.
They're absolutely fine at defensive rebounding.
Sorry but this is incorrect. Syracuse is 278th in the country in DREB% at 34.3%. In Big East play they finished 13th out of 15 teams in the conference at 36.6%. They are a bad defensive rebounding team just like most zone teams. McGary killing them on the glass and making his putbacks will be a huge key.
Not sure what stats you are looking at but they are probably some tempo free rebound numbers that reflect the low eFG% that Syracuse allows. They are a good OREB team FWIW, as you would expect based on their length.
If we hit our 3s, we should win.
If we're ice cold, we could get crushed
We'll need to hit our outside shots (and, the Kansas Shot aside, not settle for 30 footers) to loosen up the 2-3 zone. I think we'll be okay defensively, as Syracuse is a good but not elite offense, but it's all going to come down to who wins the battle between this offense and Syracuse's world-class zone defense.
Protip: dont be a little bitch like Zeller
Seriously though, whoever we have flashing to the free throw line is going to have to become the point guard and distribute the ball well and make good decisions. Hopefully burke can penetrate the zone and get easy looks for the rest of the guys. Syracuse's length gave IU a lot of problems but IU is much smaller than we are with both Hulls and Yogi around 6 foot tall. Trey is the only starter we have under 6'6'' and for some strange reason I'm not to worried about him.
In the end, its going to come down to making shots. As simple as that sounds. If we hit our shots, I don't think Syracuse can score enough points to stay with us.
I think Trey should be the one. I believe it was Thad Matta that said, "If Trey gets it in the paint, it's over"
Bobby Knight placed Isiah Thomas in that role versus UNC in the 1981 title game.
From there, Trey can pull up to take the easy 12-footer, draw and dish to McGary & Robinson, or kick it out to Nik & THJ.
Find the weakness and exploit it. Make the opposition pay for overpressuring elsewhere.
I was listening to ESPN radio last week after the IU-Syracuse game and Jay Bilas said that Bobby Knight is the only coach he has ever known who loved to play against zone defense.
As Bobby said, in man, the opposing coach gets to choose who guards his best player, but in zone he gets to make that decision and he is going to exploit the hell out of you.
I am happy we have an extra week to prepare for the 2-3.
The 2-3 zone has difiiculty against penetrating guards and teams that hit 3's with a high percentage. Should be a great match-up for us. Have to hit shots to win.
One more strong weekend is all we need.
Dudeness but Indiana = team with penetrating guards that hits a lot of 3s and they got completely shut down. I don't know what is in the water at Syracuse but that zone baffles opposing teams, even ones that theoretically have the right ingredients to beat it.
Indiana went 3 for 15 from 3pt range (20%) against Syracuse. Marquette did worse: 3 for 24 (12.5%). Overall shooting: Indiana 33% ; Marquette 23%. Question is whether Syracuse caused that low-shooting percent or whether IU and Marquette just went cold.
This past weekend's games were odd ... a lot of very cold shooting. Very low percentage shooting games.
Could be the domed stadium effect. Fortunately, the effect only manifests itself on U.S. citizens, as Nik demonstated.
Indiana doesn't really have "penetrating" guards though. Every IU player, with the exception of Yogi Ferrell, relies on other players to create shots for them. Against a zone you need more than one player that can get in to the middle. Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway, and too a lesser extent Spike, are all able to create shot attempts for others.
The 2-3 does not have difficulty with penetrating guards. It's expressly designed to stop penetrating guards.
Eh, the 2-3 is typically used to nuetralize height disadvantages. Syracuse does not use the zone for this reason, but that is why you normally see a zone being utilized. And pentrating guards are a nightmare for any zone defense. Defenders are not able to move near as fast as the ball, and a guard that can get in to the middle of the zone and kick it out to a shooter is a worst nightmare for a zone defense.
Funny. Jim Boeheim's book says he uses it to stop dribble penetration.
You act like I didn't say "Syracuse does not use the zone for this reason". And book or no book, the 2-3 zone didn't stop Louisville's guards from penetrating much.
but that is the point. If you can penetrate regardless of the fact that it is designed to stop it you beat it.
Yes, if you can nullify the entire purpose of playing a specific defense, you will beat that defense. I hardly see how that specfically applies to the 2-3.
Most sensible people agree that the way to beat the 2-3 is either by getting the ball into the middle via the pass (to cutters) or to reverse the ball.
penetrate a 2-3 with the dribble. If you move the ball quickly around the perimeter guards can get an angle from the top or the wing. Yes, slashing wings and high posting bigs is the most conventional way to beat it, but that was Indiana's approach and we saw how that worked out. I would love to see Trey keep his dribble into the lane.
Yeah, if you can get through one of the seams with penetration, you essentially beat two guys and force a whole series of panicked rotations from the base of the zone that are going to open other guys up. It's tough to do against Syracuse, though, because those guys guarding the top are both quick and long-armed. And then the penetrator has to make really good decisions as the defense collapses. I pretty much only trust Burke to attempt to penetrate, as Stauskas is apt to throw pretty risky passes when the defense collapses and Tim just looks to score.
Actually, if Tim can penetrate and is on, that would be a great advantage.
Reversing the ball plays into a 2-3 zone's hands. The defense never has to work. You beat a zone by atttacking. Penetrating seams either via the pass or dribble drive creates opportunites as you either get a good look in a void of the zone or draw multiple defenders and can find an open teammate for a good look.
Just endlessly reversing the ball doesn't do much, but moving the ball side to side quickly can open up the seams for players to penetrate or for the post to flash to the center. That's why Syracuse tries to deny ball reversal. I think Indiana had trouble moving the ball because of the wing denial, and therefore they kept trying to enter the ball to the flashing post with a 6' point who had to lob the ball over the tall top players in the zone. The first place they went wrong was in failing to force the zone to shift and adjust because they couldn't move the ball on the perimeter.
That's the real strength of this Syracuse zone. The top players are long enough to deny the wing and the high post entry at the same time unless you force them to move.
a zone off-balance. They only way to do that is to keep the ball moving faster than the defense. I am not talking about two guys passing the ball back and forth 30 feet from the basket. I am talking about constant ball movement around the perimeter.
But in the end I think this is a team of destiny and will somehow pull out the win. Michigan 58 Syracuse 56.
We won't get the shots that we did against Florida after they went zone because Syracuse is much longer. Their length does concern me as our perimeter shots will be pretty well contested. We'll have to get Burke penetrating and passing as well as having the guy who flashes towards the high post not have TOs and find the open man. Syracuse does not rebound well so we need McGary to go berserk on the boards. I think the matchup is OK but as always we will need to hit our 3s which means Stauskas/Hardaway. Hardaway is definitely in another one of his cold streaks.
1. Free throw line flashing by Mitch and GRIII. We have to get into the interior of the zone in order to get open wing shooters. Indiana utterly failed to do that AT ALL and they could get nothing over Syracuse on the wings.
2. Zone em back a couple of times. Their zone makes teams uncomfortable. I think if we went 1-3-1 in short spurts and even trapped a little in the half court it could throw them off balance a little bit.
3. Push it. Even if it means a few bad shots we need to invite them into a game that is a little up and down to get a little bit of space. True this will mean one or two Cuse thunder dunks but our best looks could come in transition.
Point #3 is a great point. Getting easy buckets will be necessary. Playing against that zone with the size they have for 40 minutes is tough.
It's not an automatic open shot on the outside with Syracuse as it is with other teams. THey're tall, and they're committed to the zone. We'll get open shots from the outside only by working the ball for a bit. Michigan is obviously good at running out, but they're also excellent at working offsense. So, I would expect us to be effective in this regard. But, we have to execute.
Yes, you have to take advantage of whatever easy points you can get.
I'm not sure about zoning Syracuse, only because we don't seem that good at it, but maybe I'm woring.
analysis, but I thought your Florida analysis was more thorough ("Fuck Florida").
Since the start of the tournament I have employed a detailed formula for each game. For each breakdown thread the formula followed is Fuck x, where x is the name of the team we are playing and the Fuck is the constant. So far the formula is 4/4 so at this juncture I am sticking with it for at least the remainder of the year. I will do a retrospective study for improvement in the offseason, hopefully finished by the start of football.
At 6'6", Carter-Williams will be a match-up problem for Burke at PG. Hardaway may end up checking him and Burke may guard Triche who is 6'4". As mentioned earlier, Michigan is going to have to 3s to win this game.
The good thing is they can spread the floor with four shooters (Burke, Hardaway, Stauskas and GRIII). If they are hitting their 3s, that could open up the inside for McGary to work his magic against Keita.
You're correct, Burke will guard Triche who in no way is 6'4. Probably closer to 6'2 and Trey will harass the hell out of him as he can be careless with the ball.. Hardaway on MCW
Step 1: Get into the middle of that zone. (Trey, THJ, GRIII, Not Just A Shooter, this is job 1)
Step 2: Find the open man
Step 3: Profit (Swish)
Alternate plan, shoot over zone.
I think our D will be the key. If we play good D and PUSH the ball, we can run on Cuse and score before they set up their zone. We can't run off made baskets. The zone will make us look turrible at times- no doubt about it. But the transition game will be key- if we have [INSERT GOOD NUMBER HERE] trans points, we win. If not, we lose.
I want to hear how Cuse stopped the IU trans game.
really did not try to push the ball. They played some token full court man to man in the second but really did not try pick up the pace all that much. Syracuse was also converting at the end of the shot clock after IU played defense for 30 seconds so a lot of times Indiana really did not have a chance to run. Hulls tried to push a little in the second half but you can only run so much when you are constantly taking the ball out of the net.
you can only run so much when you are constantly taking the ball out of the net.\
Exactly my point. We have to play some good D and RUN
He was able to flash many times to the free throw line, but was hesitant or bull-headed when he got the ball. He rarely took the open 12-footer, instead opting to try to go over the top of the bigs. That didn't work.
In contrast, the dynacism of Trey could wreak havoc from that spot.
I don't think they have enough offense to beat us. Of course if we shoot well from 3 this game is ours. Even if we don't I think we can penetrate and work the zone. We have great perimeter players "He's not just a shooter" and I think that will give them more fits than they have faced. We are the best all around team in the final four and I don't think they have anything for us. But this is college bball and anything can happen.
I think we're a good all-around team, but it's hard to argue with Louisville as the best team left. Maybe that's just my opinion, but they are the one team I absolutely don't want to play.
It's not the fact that they play the 2-3 zone that makes them tricky, it's the length of the players in the 2-3 zone. You can simulate that zone all you want in practice, but what makes them so tough is their length affecting passing lanes and causing deflections. Brandon Triche will be the shortest guy on the court for them at 6'4 and their PG stands at 6'6 in Michael Carter Williams. If I could pick one person in the country playing the college game to give Stauskas a run at a 3 point contest it would be James Southerland. If he is on, look out. C.J. Fair is a crafty player who can find a number of ways to score the ball. Keita (6'10) and Christmas (6'9) are their big guys who, once again, affect shots with their length, but both are very raw with their offensive games. It's just gonna come down to what everyone has said as soon as it was known we were advancing to face Syracuse yesterday, we have to make shots and also keep them off the offensive boards so they can't get second chance opportunites. I live on the East Coast, so I have had many opportunites to watch Syracuse play throughout the season, so this is just my non-expert opinion.
Not to jinx us, but on paper we do match up very well against Syracuse and their zone. With Trey, Hardaway, and Staukas as all very good three point shooters they will have to expand their zone, allowing mcgary to do what he does best, offensive rebounds and put backs. Realistically this is our ideal matchup and if we are able to hit from the outside we should really be able to exploit their zone.
Just like everyone else says...
We need good penetration and good decisions from our PG's. We might see Spike and Trey on the floor again some. The concern there would be height.
Obviously a few of our guys knocking down their shots will help.
I think our transition game is the key here. If we push the ball and make sounds decisions on the break I think good things will happen.
I think the matchup should make for a great game!
WWOOOOOOOOO, FINAL FOUR!! YYYEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!
I guess Syracuse is next.
WWWOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! FINAL FOUR!!!!!
This game is going to be won one way and one way only.
We HAVE to play the best defense we've played all year so we can get into transition and Syracuse can't set up their zone.
Syracuse isn't a great offensive team, but if we're sloppy on D or too focused on trying to shoot over the zone, we're going to struggle.
We need to be more focused on getting stops, than trying to find a way to score on the zone. That is the biggest worry I have.
I predicted Stauskas would go off vs. Florida and Albrecht would be huge vs. VCU. I'm going to say THJ is going to be MVP of the Final Four. I just think he finds his rhythm and has an awesome final two games.
Courtesy of TeamRankings, and for the discussion here:
|Avg Score Margin||+11.9||+12.2|
|Effective FG %||54.6%||49.1%|
|Off Rebound %||30.0%||37.7%|
|Opp Effective FG %||48.0%||42.5%|
We definitely have the offensive firepower to simply outshoot Syracuse, but it likely won't be that simple, of course. If we can get penetration, keep Syracuse moving and find dead spots in the zone, we would be in good shape. It seems like one of the vulnerabilities of the 2-3 is that is less effective if it is kept in motion somehow, so that will be key, I think. That, and some good outside shots. I actually think this matchup plays into some things that Michigan does pretty well.
Thanks for posting this. Offensive rebounds, blocks and steals...Syracuse does the dirty work well.
Watching the Ind/Syr showed how good guard play really makes a difference. Carter-Williams is big guard who ate up Yogi Ferrell, Burke is a smaller guy too, but more skilled (obviously) than Ferrell. CJ Fair is a skilled player but he seems to make a lot of bone headed plays and will opt for a bad shot instead of passing to an open shooter.
The Syracuse zone is a tough nut to crack but so was VCUs press.
We have too many good shooters, too much speed and have several players that cut to the basket for this zone. I like THJ to have a big game in this one.
We win by 8.
...was that he struggled this weekend and Stauskas went off. They're going to cheat their zone to Stauskas and when they do, THJ is going to get great looks.
He's also likely to be more focused this week trying to get back "into it" and contribute like he has much of this year.
I think THJ is going to go OFF, and I don't just mean shooting. I talking rebounds and assist. Triple double maybe? One can dream.
The Syracuse zone works very well against little guards (see Indiana and Louisville) and will give Michigan some trouble IMHO. John Beilein is 0-9 against the Syracuse zone in his career...defense vs. offense type game here...my key to the game is Tim Hardaway Jr, I do not believe Michigan wins without him playing well.
That is talented as Michigan this year. WVU were a bunch of scrubs who succeed in JB's system, and developed them into a solid team. Can't use Cuse record against JB because Michigan is arguably the most talented team in the country and have the best player in the country in Burke.
JB will figure out a way to beat their zone and exploit them.
Are not all players a product of their coaches system? Seems like "scrubs" like Stu and Novak dont have your respect.
Is this team more talented than those that came before it? Yes, but please dont knock Coach B's previous teams, especially when he laid the foundation of this team with low ranked players who fit his system, thus maximixing their contributions.
I'm talking about WVU team, not Michigan.
Look at WVU teams that JB coached in the past, none of them are in the NBA. They're all scrubs. Gansey and Pittsnogle fits the system perfectly but they never had a chance of making it to the NBA.
was Beilein's team favored? A dog? A heavy dog?
That is important context, and I'm guessing that in a number of the nine losses, Beilein's team was a heavy underdog.
I think, as always, our defense will be the key, more than any machinations to beat the 2-3. Syracuse will play good half-court defense, they always do. If we can run off misses and TO's, it doesn't matter what their base defense is.
Valenti said it best on twitter yesterday. Michigan and Louisville are just playing on another level than everyone else. It isn't if we do this, we win, if we don't do that, we lose. This team is on a special kind of run. I don't see the 'Cuse being able to stop it.
No one thought we would crush VCU, no one thought we would come back and beat Kansas, no one thought we would get a 25 point lead over Florida in the first half, and sustain it for the entirety of the game. This team is amazing. I just don't see it ending before Trey Burke says so at this point.
You're giving me goose bumps. This is going to be a long week.
who cares about the X's and O's? When THIS team plays at the highest level they can beat ANYBODY in the Final Four .... INCLUDING the Cuse and L'ville. Yes, when Michigan plays at this level they hit 3's and FTs and they rebound. We have 5 guys of which ANY of them can go for 20 or more any game. So ENJOY and ...
I hope everyone works on their jumper from the FT line. I think that can open up the corner threes from Stauskus and cuts to the basket from GRIII.
Keep playing Defense like they did against Florida. It is no coincidence that we blew out Florida with that defensive performance.
Both teams are a 4-seed.
I was looking up something about Syracuse last night and it said that their next game is @ Michigan, so I assume Michigan is home. But I do not recall where I saw that, so I can't say for sure.
Michigan was the highest 4-seed, so I guess we're home, but I don't know the rules on that.
We're above them in both polls.
I'd assume we're white on Saturday, Maize on Monday vs. L'ville.
It's working well and they can serve as "home" unis.
We wore white vs. SDSU and VCU. Higher seeded teams wear white.
...besides why mess it up now? White at home, Maize on the road. Let's not get cute.
I remember the last time we played Syracuse back in 2010 and we played very well with a way less talented and athletic team. Coach B had a very good system to beat that 2-3. We lost by two but the only real difference was talent.
Admittedly, Beilein has generally coached against Syracuse with inferior talent, but he's 0-9 against them.
I'm not sure "he has a very good system to beat that 2-3".
Well when the difference in talent and athletic ability is as big as it is that's bound to happen. Coach B has all of the pieces now
...the best way to beat it. Don't allow them to set up.
GET STOPS and run!
We didn't kill UF's zone just with Stauskas, it was just as much all of the steals and layups that we got.
Anyone know of any Pittsburgh PA Michigan friendly bars? Ill be in downtown pittsburgh next weekend and will need to watch this somewhere. We have dinner reservations at meat and potatoes at 8pm so we should be getting done right around tip.
Very superstitious during this run. I stupidly said that if we dont shoot well, and aren't playing aggressive d, that Vcu would cause all kinds if problems for us. Then I said that Kansas was just a bad match up for us. I had to keep this going by saying I had a bad feeling because nobody has given Florida credit and it gives me a bad feeling :). So, I think this zone with such athletic guards will give us fits.
We'll have a tough first game (I know SDSU but it was closer than VCU) but win an epic gritty game. Then we win the next game in a blowout because of the grittiness residue!
It seems to me we are going to want to try and push the tempo and get some looks before 'Cuse has time to set up their zone. A fast-paced ballgame will move things into our favor.
The real key to victory is wearing our Blue uniforms. First weekend was 2 in white. Second weekend was 2 in maize. Third weekend 2 in blue. Its quite simple really
There are two things zone defenses have problems with:
1) Tall guys who shoot the 3 (Stauskas, Hardaway, and Robinson if he is on)
2) Creative, decisive passers (Pretty much our entire starting 5, though Hardaway and Stauskas have tendencies to force things at times.)
I'd be more worried if all our 3-point shooter were short. But Stauskas and Hardaway can get their shot off with very little space, especially Stauskas. There isn't a zone in the country that can cover Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway & Robinson all at the same time. Now, we need EVERYONE to show up and be a weapon, but if least a few of those guys are hitting, I don't see how Syracuse is going to be able to close them all out at the same time. And if you close out too hard on our guys, they can all go by you. ALL of them can take the ball to the rim. That is WAY different than most teams. Syracuse may have to choose between giving up shots or scrambling and giving up position to McGary for easy bunnies inside.
As someone else said, besides shooting, the next biggest key will be McGary going loco on the boards. We'll need double digit rebounds from him for sure and probably at least 15 points on a lot of putbacks.
The thing the team has to avoid is having everyone go cold at the same time. As long as a few guys stay hot they are very hard to stop. But we need at least 2 guys hitting from 3 to take Syracuse down IMO.
I feel pretty good about this game. My concern in any game is not about how we'll score points - we'll find a way to score some - but how our D can stop the opposition. Syracuse ranks 57th in offensive efficiency, compared to 27th for Kansas and 7th (!) for Florida - 57th is not bad, but closer to the national mean. Also, they're not all that great at taking care of the ball - they commit 12.5 turnovers per game, 108th in the country. Our D thrives when it can jump in the passing lanes and get deflections and steals. We may get a few. I am cautiously optimistic about this one.
Where is Butterfield and his math?
Or if that doesn't work, hold them to less points than we score.
Does anyone have MCW's numbers being guarded by a small guards vs. bigger ones? He seemed to dominate early when they were playing teams with small guards and his numbers dipped when he got into conference play. Syracuse's most impressive win was the one against Indiana and the Orange were a matchup nightmare for Ind for obvious small guard reasons.
This discussion about Syracuse's zone reminds me a bit of the football saying -- "We'll defend against the run and you have to prove you can beat me with the pass." Run = penetration in the paint; Pass = shots from outside.