ND opened -6 against Michigan, and that line quickly moved to -7 given the hype surrounding their victory against Sparty. The line now sits at -4.5. Do you think it will move lower? I always thought Michigan should be a 3 to 4 point underdog in this game. I feel as if the last 5 years has supported this, which is why the 7 point spread shocked me. Of course we could always win or lose big this weekend, but I feel as if this "correction" is a good sign for us.
Michigan vs. ND - The Line Continues to Move
We'll win by 4.
six seconds left.
No time left on the clock pass interference on ND. One last play denard to devin (either one). Michigan wins by one and BK has a mental breakdown on the field. Again.
How is the "correction" a good sign for us? All it represents is perception and adjusting for too many bets on one side of the line. Our chances don't actually change based on the line moving, you know...
Does the vegas betting line affect at all our chances of winning?
But they aren't picking games. The book doesn't make money on the outcome. The lines are designed to induce betting more or less evenly. It's about picking perception, not an outcome.
But when the line moves, isn't that usually in response to the "heavy hitters" (who theoretically know what they're doing) going disproportionately for one side?
Vegas wants as close to 50% betting on each side, because they take a small percentage of all winnings (and obviously, all the money from losing bets)
Say vegas takes 5% of all winnings
1 Million dollars bet on Michigan covering. 5 Million bet on Notre Dame covering.
If Notre Dame wins, the sports book loses 3.75 Million
3 Million bet on Michigan. 3 Million bet on Notre Dame.
Either way, the sports book takes 150,000.
Scenario B may seem like the "safer" bet, but casino's aren't in the business of gambling; only their customers are. They do as many of these "safe" bets thousands of times a year, they win every time --> profit
The "lines" are only indirectly set as predictions of game results. They are initially set to predict where the 50-50 split will happen in regards to the bet, so that the book wins no matter what. When the line moves, it doesn't represent a sudden change in something behind the scenes affecting the game; it just represents Vegas adjusting to guarantee that they win either way.
So when you place a bet, it might end up changing? Or are you locked in to that bet?
Like if I bet on UMass to cover a 600 point spread against Alabama, and the line later moves to 450, then I'm out of luck when they lose by 500? Even though my prediction was right initially?
your bet is locked in once you place it.
But if, say, ND was getting more bets than MIchigan (60% ND to 40% MIchigan), then Vegas will try to adjust it so that Michigan gets the majority of the action until things even out.
it's locked once you place it into what it says on your ticket, but in horse/dog racing, this is not the case. It matters only what the odds are once all the bets are locked right before starting gates pen.
If the line is placed where it "should" be in terms of who is actually expected to win and by how much, the favorite generally takes a lot more action than the dog. So the line is usually moved a little more in favor of the dog (line expanded) in order to even the money a little but still leave more (now badly bet) money on the favorite. The book's goal is to even the money enough so the juice provides a profit even if the favorite wins (including the spread), but to kill it if the more likely scenario happens (the dog wins[counting the spread]). The house is nearly always happy when the dog wins. Over the course of the season, the book does very well at this.Teh most notable exception to this strategy is the Super Bowl where there is so much action that the house can't afford to "miss" part of the the huge payday if the favoire wins. Therefore, the line is set to match the money on either side as closely as possible.
This is wrong. Books take risks just like gamblers do, they're just better at it. 50/50 is a myth.
Case in point:
Books generally keep the action on one side close enough to the other side so even if the favorite wins the losers + the losers' juice will cover the winners plus leave a little for them. your example is appropriate, but not the norm.
It's easy to be better than the players when you're receiving the juice half the time rather than paying it.
All that said....Home dogs remain a good play no matter how commonplace the knowledge is.
I don't think you understand how sports books work.
And that goes for Blue-Chips and Oorbs too. Last year for the Western game Vegas 20 times the amount of money coming in on Michigan's side then on Western's side. Vegas thought they were going to make a killing on that game and got bailed out because of the thunderstorm prevented anyone from making money.
On the Behind the Bets podcast every week on ESPN bookmakers constantly debunk the theory that they want even money on each side. If they can beat the public more consistenly then they make the house more money. Also, several bookmakers have brought up the fact that if they priced in which teams were "public teams" to the odds they would get absolutely destroyed by the sharps. The major expception is the Superbowl in which so many millions of dollars are at stake they try to get pretty close to a 50/50.
So the fact that the line has come down means the sharps are betting heavily on Michigan or the bookmakers have taken another look at Michgan and think it will be a close game.
likes Michigan and they want Irish money. ND's performance against State was not as much the Irish being impressive as it was State being awful. The Irish needed a late Field Goal to beat Purdon't (oooooh burned) and Michigan's performance against Bama is becomming more respectable with every shutout the Tide are laying on fools. ND -4 shouts at you to "TAKE THE IRISH!!" I like that spread for us.
Another way to analyze the spread is to take the Bama game. I think we were 12 point dogs. Vegas knew that Bama could possibly beat the Colts straight up, and that Meeeechigan could seriously not hang. They post a 12 so the layperson says no way they cover that, this is Michigan foregodsakes. Big money on Blue, Vegas lets out an evil laugh and has a cigar and glass of fine wine.
Not upon their ability to pick games, but their ability to pick attractive betting lines.
I think about this from time to time, & I think it's funny ... we basically invent probability for these games based on things we don't really know about. I mean, there is basis to it. but with a matchup like this, it's pretty close. it's impossible to know the true 'likelihood' of the outcome of this competition with such little data to go on. so, if ND is the favorite here, it doesn't mean they 'should' win the game ... it means they ought to have a slightly better than 50/50 chance of winning, given the public's perception. I believe predictions make more sense later in the season. right now it's just madness. I'll take my chances, beat the Irish!
Because that would mean people were not comfortable with 7, when they move it to 9 it would be to stabilize the bets because too many were taking the Irish at 7. I think anyway, amirite?
I wonder if someone if offering a prop bet on whether or not we score a game-winning TD in the final minute?
If there is, I would definitely drop some on that, as long as it is last two minutes.
On a side note, what is everyone's thoughts in the weather (rainy)? Could help our receivers against their inexperienced DBs, or could negatively impact Denard and Fitz' ability to juke in a phone booth. Comments commence...
Does anyone here know where I can watch the game?
Hate to be a smart ass but some sort of context would help.
Edit. Ah, I get it. It's a joke. Cause there's a lot of people asking where to watch the game.. Silly me.
/s?????? I hope...
It seems more accurate to me. Clearly ND will and should be favored because they've played better and they're at home, but I think 4-5 seems about right on. I think we're pretty evenly matched and the final score will depend on turnovers and probably who gets the ball last with time to score.
Makes sense in some ways. We have a senior QB who is 3-0 against them and has absolutely given them fits. They have a freshman QB making his fourth career start. Can you bet against Denard in this game?
I mean yeah technically 3-0 because he was on the team but Denard was not the QB in '09 game.
I mean, we were probably in total less than 3 minutes from being 0-4 in our last 4 attempts despite the best efforts of Tate and Denard
Doesn't matter - we won the games, and Denard has the confidence to know he can lead us to victory against ND. If this one again goes down to the wire, which team is going to feel the pressure more - the one that's thrived in these occasions or the one that's come up short three straight times?
Playing football in South Bend is like playing basketball in Bloomington. You always have to take into account the bias officiating, and make your line off that, as well as the opponent.
I'd take anything that is 4.5 or higher
Is it Big East officials since ND is currently associated with the Big East in everything but football? I assume it is not B1G officials.
It is B1G officials in South Bend, Big East officials in AA :)
I'm not positive, but I think the visiting team chooses the conference officiating crew in this series.
1. You do realize the guys reffing this game are Big Ten officials, right? Are you saying that Big Ten officials are going to be biased FOR Notre Dame?
2. Notre Dame is not an intimidating place to play whatsoever. Homefield advantage is basically zilch for ND... both in theory and practicality given ND's recent home record.
FWIW, I'd be tempted to pick Michigan straight up in this game given recent history, the injury to Jamoris Slaughter (i.e. get ready for a bunch of big plays against this secondary), and how crappy the right side of the line has played this year. This game could go eitehr way but either Denard is going to have to have an off day OR a maligned position for ND has to step up for Michigan to lose. If everybody brings their status quo game then ND probably loses because of a handful of big plays + inconsistent OL play. Just my opinion... an awful lot of question marks for ND that are being glossed over by playing sub-par offensive teams in first 3 games.
Conference affiliation has nothing to do with the refs not being fair or biased. Hence the point I made about IU home basketball games. Those refs are B1G affiliated but predominantly show a bias towards IU. I can't help it that South Bend doesn't provide a home field advantage, but may I suggest with allowing your faithful to finally be allowed to stand during the game, new scoreboards, press boxes, and don't allow your play book to be exposed on national television when conducting practice on ice skates.
Last 5 games at each location, Michigan is 2-3 at ND and 4-1 at home. Seems like a home field advantage to me. Going back 10 more games, Michigan is 1-3-1 at ND and 3-2 at home.
Combined last 20 games, Michigan is 3-6-1 at ND and 7-3 at home.
I meant in general over the past 5 years or so, not just with long term respect to the series. My fault as that was unclear, I should have been more specific. In recent years ND has one of the worst "home field advantages"... ranked 105th out of 120, to be specific. Link: http://www.onefootdown.com/2012/7/2/3132935/nd-ranked-105-out-of-120-in-study-of-cfb-homefield-advantage
I wonder what the advantage (if any) is for the 105th team. My guess is that it is still something positive.
Our fanbases are similar as far as noise levels go. Michigan Stadium isn't the noisiest place in the world - but for that night game last year, it was rocking. I would expect Notre Dame Stadium to be the same way on Saturday.
on the Slaughter injury. Sure they'll miss him, but ND's DLine was totally overpowering the MSU OLine, such that Maxwell was never really able to take advantage. Besides, the young guys in NDs secondary are better than last year's, from what I've seen.
I still like our chances though, because our line has pass blocked okay. Not looking for a lot of success on the ground (Denard excepted). I think we use our twin towers to win this game. Funchess hardly seems like he can be covered, fergodsakes.
I think that the ND pass rush won't get to Denard. This is for 2 reasons:
- He's Denard.
- You are implicitly assuming that the MSU O-line is >= the UM O-line.
I'll state #2 differently. Which MSU O-line starter would you pick over his UM counterpart? (so you can't move the MSU LT to the UM RT position...etc.)
I predict that ND's defense will look decidedly average against UM's offense, especially in the passing game. This will open up the run, especially on scrambles. The big question mark is will the UM defense play Michigan Defense (TM)? If the answer is yes, I think Michigan wins by 10.
Setting up to be another classic. I think it could go to three by Sat. ND's strengths are our weaknesses, but we do have that shoelace guy.
I think the difference here seems to be that bettors figure UM is closer than a 7-point dog on the road. I don't necessarily think the general public expects UM to win this game, but it should be closer than a TD given the recent history.
Smart money says take anything Michigan +3 or better. When is there not a very close game in this series?