MICHIGAN v ohio state: What are the Odds?
What are the odds for Michigan winning against both Maryland and OSU, losing one of the two, or losing both games.
Michigan wins both 34.2%. Michigan wins one of the two 59.2%. Michigan loses both 6.7%
What are the odds for OSU winning against both Michigan and MSU, OSU losing to one of the two, or OSU losing both games.
OSU wins both 53.2%. OSU wins one of the two 41.5%. OSU loses both 5.2%.
What are the odds for MSU winning both Ohio Sate and Penn State, MSU losing to one of the two, or MSU losing both games.
MSU wins both 7.7%. MSU wins one of the two 54.5%. MSU loses both 37.8%.
source: ESPN matchup predictor based on current football power index.
Interesting result and takeaways...
- OSU has the best chance to win both - but Michigan has better than 1 out of 3 chance to win both
- MSU has a higher chance of losing both games than Michigan has of winning both remaining games
- MSU has almost no chance to win both, OSU almost no chance to lose both
Of course the chance the refs screw Michigan in the OSU game is the most likely of all scenarios.
November 16th, 2021 at 4:01 AM ^
p.s. I should also add that the chance that Michigan and OSU both win this weekend is 77.0% setting up The GAME.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:04 AM ^
Good info.
I think you’re getting dinged for the less than descriptive title.
Maybe the mods can edit.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:32 AM ^
yes, what do you suggest - I'm surprised I'm getting dinged just on the post...
November 16th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
Co-signed this is a good thread that's probably getting downvoted by people not actually reading the content and assuming it's a feelings-post instead of actual data.
I'll admit it. When i saw the title I fully expected this to be something from SnazzyMcDazzy where they posted a word salad of important thoughts they have on things, not an actual post on the actual odds of future events occurring. I would suggest asking in ModSticky for one of the mods to change your title to something like "ESPN predicts likely outcome of Michigan, MSU & OSU's next two games" or something like that.
Anyways, you got an upvote from me to try and stem the tide.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
I didn’t ding, but using ESPN as a source is dicey. I give their predictor a 37% chance that it is based off of monkeys throwing feces at team logos.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
Massey ratings reference further below gives almost the same result - only higher 39% Michigan wins both games.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
What RGard does for his side hustle isn't really our business.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
It's more of a gorilla thing, but I'll take the mention.
November 16th, 2021 at 5:49 AM ^
I cant think of a scenario where we beat OSU. I would love for it to happen but i just dont see it. We cannot outscore OSU. The offense just isnt built for it.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:15 AM ^
Defense.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:18 AM ^
Defense, plus get back Corum, plus home field advantage in the Big House - with a crowd that is hungry for a win. Make it very brutal for the buckeyes.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:26 AM ^
We don't really have a home field advantage when we play them because 40% of the Big House is wearing red.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:26 AM ^
Wonder if we could reduce the red if it was played on a weekend other than Thanksgiving break.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
you would reduce the red if we won the game once in a while.. or *gasp* maybe 2-3 times in a row?
November 16th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
Yes, Reavers don't celebrate Thanksgiving, which explains why so many Ohio State fans show up in Ann Arbor for the game.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
I don't think this is actually the case. It looks that way because red stands out a lot more, and many M fans are in typical winter gear. I went in 2019 and it looked like 40+ percent buckeyes in the stadium, but walking around outside pre and post game it looked more like 20-25%. Obviously not hard data, but general point that "its not as bad as it looks a a glance" stands.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:23 AM ^
Any scenario? That is just not true. #1 scenario-- Refs call a fair game and call holds.
#2 scenario-- HH runs for 200 plus yards.
#3 scenario-- Defense and ST score.
I don't think we are going to win a shootout with OSU, like they do in B12. So, our best chances are HH going crazy, our defense plays lights out and create turnovers and ST does something magic. There is a chance, but not very high.
Remember that PSU played OSU very tight at the shoe.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:08 AM ^
So you think if the refs call a straight up game we win?
Really? That's all it'll take, we're the better team...we just need the refs to call it fair?
...and if Hassan goes for 200, are we assuming he also goes for 5 TDs like Walker? Because 200 is great, but if it's only 1 TD, we better be getting them from someone else.
That said, Hassan going for 200 would be quite the feat. OSU's rush defense is better than ours and better than MSU's. They're like #10 in the country, allowing 106/game.
It's their pass defense that is ASS (also like MSU, which is dead last in the entire country, by like 25 yards/game). OSU is like 106 or something, not good.
So if Hassan goes for 200 against their top flight run D + Cade throws for 400 against their poor pass defense...now we're in business. Still have to put it in the endzone though.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:23 AM ^
Yes. If refs call a fair game, there is a good chance we win. The original poster said no scenario. Harbaugh had his team prepared to beat OSU more often than not. Refs screwed at least one game. This year, I think both teams have it's strengths and weaknesses. Given a fair chance at home gives M a chance. I am not prepared mentally for a loss, but I think this team has a chance.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:17 AM ^
Prepared to beat them more often than not?
2019 - 56-27 L
2018 - 62-39 L
2017 - 31-20 L
2016 - 30-27 L
2015 - 42-13
In Harbaugh's tenure, we have kept it within one score one time. I wouldn't say that is being prepared to beat them more often than not.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
I did not say we played well in those games. I get it. We lost badly more often than not. But I still contend that they were prepared in at least 3 of those 5. If I remember right we had some injuries leading up to the game that resulting in a blowout. May be I am getting old and losing my memory. LoL.
November 16th, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
So, are you saying it was a lack of preparation? I get that you're appalled at our record against our rival, but lack of preparation? The score indicates a clear deficiency, but I would not say that preparation is the issue.
We all know that the Don Brown defense wasn't keeping up with the state of the game. Quite frankly, OSU now has that issue. Their cover 1 defense was working great when they had top draft picks in the backfield. They've lost a lot of talent in that area, and it exposed a mediocre defensive strategy.
For the first time since 2016, I think our defensive coaching is better than theirs. Unfortunately offensively they are still ahead of us and just about everyone else. We've clearly made some improvements in that area this year. Is it enough? We'll see.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
They're not just "still ahead of us" they're way ahead of us and everybody else. They're 1st in the country in total yards and yards per play, averaging 8.04 yards per play. Coastal Carolina is the only team in the country that's anywhere near that. Michigan is about 30th.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:12 AM ^
Nebraska played them tight too.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:58 AM ^
Boy am I glad that you're not employed by the team.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:22 AM ^
So if I was optimistic, you'd want me employed by the team and not someone who is actually qualified to do the job?
I'm glad none of us are employed by the team. Because? Obviously.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:46 AM ^
No--it's quite the opposite. Because you can't come up with practical scenarios to shift the odds.
In fact, I recommend that you stay away from the sport entirely, except to indulge your pessimism. A&M certainly never would have beaten Alabama this year with you anywhere near the helm.
Thankfully, the kids and coaches aren't built like that. They'll go out and take on the challenge with enthusiasm. Let's see, who should we admire more?
November 16th, 2021 at 7:12 AM ^
I cant think of a scenario where we beat OSU.
It's the one where Michigan gets more points.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:13 AM ^
A cold, wet, windy day.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:22 AM ^
Weather has been mentioned. A cold, rainy day that makes passing difficult would obviously help Michigan.
Otherwise, we'd have to hope for either coaching malpractice (which seems unlikely) or an unmotivated bunch of Buckeyes (also unlikely). Their talent level is just too high.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
Is it too late to switch the field to natural grass and let it grow to 6 inches high? That would slow down their skill players.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:21 AM ^
It would slow down ours, too...
I've never understood that theory - let the grass grow so it slows them down. It slows down everyone!!
November 16th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
This is exactly what OSU did in 2006 to slow down Henne to Manningham connection and it worked. 3 overthrows in first half.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Was that the year where their turf was resodded a couple weeks before The Game, and it was torn to shreds underneath the cleats? That was awful.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
https://www.cleveland19.com/story/5755772/osu-goes-back-to-artificial-turf/
Not sure but they grew it longer before The Game.
November 16th, 2021 at 7:42 AM ^
If we win, it's because because we put Stroud on his ass over and over again. And we don't just tackle him, there's bad intentions (so to speak), perhaps even a couple early roughing the passer or late hit penalties. Rattle him early and often and the win is very attainable.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
Not likely with the Big Ten refs not calling holding anymore and their preference for OSU.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:09 AM ^
It will very interesting to see how OSU does against Michigan State this weekend. Do they steamroll them the way they did Purdue? Or is it a close fought game like they had against Penn State.
If we get to the OSU game healthy, we’ll have a chance. I think we play them closer and tougher than people think. We’re all pessimistic because Michigan have given us no reason to think otherwise for 20 years, but OSU’s defense can be beaten and if we can control the clock and deny OSU the ball, we’ll be in the game at the end.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:58 AM ^
Awesome passing attack vs horrible pass defense = shootout. I just don't see MSU getting any stops but OSU will get a few.
November 16th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
Disregarding all objective football facts, I'm optimistic because I feel like Michigan finally beating Ohio State, but then watching Michigan State roll into the CFP ahead of Michigan because A) Ohio State is caught looking ahead to Michigan, and B) Michigan State beats PTSD Sean Clifford with special thanks to Hutchinson and Co., would be the Lucy-est of outcomes for 2021 Michigan.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
I’m of the mindset where this game is a loss until it isn’t, but there are scenarios or paths to a victory. Are they likely to happen? Probably not. But they are there.
1) Michigan needs multiple long, time-consuming drives that end with TDs. I’m talking at least 5 minutes, hopefully closer to 6-8 minutes. Anything to keep Stroud, Olave, Wilson, and Henderson off the field. That is Michigan’s best defense that day. Those guys sitting on the bench and Michigan’s defense staying rested.
2) Those drives have to result in touchdowns. Absolutely have to. If you kick one field goal, fine. Any more drives than that which end in 0-3 points, you’re probably toast.
3) Turnovers. Obviously this isn’t some grand knowledge that everyone doesn’t already know, but you force some turnovers that turn into points, preferably touchdowns, that is the great equalizer in any football game.
4) Michigan’s defense is not going to stop OSU that day. No one in America outside of Athens, GA has a realistic chance to do that. They need to make just enough stops to allow the offense to stay within striking distance. If Michigan falls to a 14 point deficit at any point, that’s probably game. But if they can get to the fourth quarter and be within 7 to 10 points, they’ve got a shot.
5) McDonald needs to design some kind of defensive game plan that allows him to live with whatever he can give up to OSU’s receivers. How he possibly does that, I have no clue. They’ve got three guys who will all be playing in Sundays one day. But if you can force them into a stat line of 12 catches for 120 yards instead of 15 for 210 yards and 3 TDs, you give yourself a chance.
Per the usual, a lot of things have to go ride for Michigan in this game in order for them to have a chance. And I still believe that this game is a loss until it isn’t. But I won’t say that there’s no hope at all.
November 16th, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
this is obviously the path.
michigan should get their yards through the air. i'm skeptical you'll be able to run consistently, and i don't think cade is very good, but a lot of not very good qbs have moved the ball effectively through the air on us this season, so cade should be able to do the same. especially with his short game accuracy. michigan should be able to dink and dunk down the field if they stay on schedule. but if they get into the red zone and score 3s instead of 7s they are going to be in trouble. especially if they are draining their own clock to do so.
it's not unreasonable for michigan to win.
November 16th, 2021 at 2:14 PM ^
@ buckeyjonross...
Taking out 2016 where many would argue UM was the better/more complete team, does this year feel any different for you than the usual during the Harbaugh era regarding The Game?
It really doesn't for me, tbh. I think OSU is just too fast and efficient on offense and UM will need some turnover luck and maybe get lucky with weather so the game is a rock fight to have a chance to win.
I think the new zone defense may hopefully limit OSU turning mesh plays into 60 yard gains against our overmatched corners (Don Brown special), but other than that, it feel like OSU fans take this game as a given?
November 16th, 2021 at 3:38 PM ^
Not buckeyjonross here, but for the first time in several years I feel a little uneasy about The Game. I think this will be your best chance to get a win in a very long time. As you know our defense will give you opportunities to stay in the game. Our offense will move the ball. The question is , will they score touchdowns or fieldgoals? Our offense will be loaded for the forseeable future, so this is your best shot to slow down a young QB. Given another year, Stroud is going to be lights out special. I will say that I am cautiously optomistic this year. Gun to my head I think you have a 35% chance to win.
November 16th, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
it feels like it's going to play out like the 2015 game.
November 16th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
Perkis, I'm glad you wrote out this long recipe since it's exactly what I was thinking
OSU isn't unbeatable. Oregon did it, in much the same way you describe. In addition to capitalizing on their own drives with points, they allowed a lot of yards but not a lot of points to OSU. Keeping the ball for long stretches and putting up 7's keeps pressure on OSU's offense. I know OSU has made some defensive playcalling changes since that game. But they're competent, not suffocating, and still look vulnerable to teams nibbling them to death.
November 16th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
Agree, I see no way these defense holds their offense in check for 4 quarters. Not going to happen. Our dbs are still pretty average going against NFL receivers.
November 16th, 2021 at 9:56 AM ^
To be fair, no one's defense outside of Georgia's can be asked to stop OSU's offense for four quarters and be expected to have a legitimate chance to do so. There's too much speed and talent on that side of the ball for that to happen. If McDonald is game-planning to try and stop OSU's offense altogether, this game is already lost.
What McDonald has to gameplan for is being able to slow them down just enough to give the offense a chance to try and keep pace. If the defense can hold OSU to somewhere within 30-40 points, there's a chance. But I also think what plays into that is that Michigan's offense has to, and I mean absolutely has to consistently have long, time-consuming drives that all, or almost all of which end in TDs.
That's how you're going to beat those guys. Michigan's offense isn't built to go toe-to-toe with OSU and win in a legitimate shootout. But if you keep their offense off the field for long stretches of time and end those drives with seven, that goes a long, long way.
November 16th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
“No one’s defense outside of Georgia’s…” And Oregon’s and PSU’s and Nebraska’s. So 30% of the teams they have played and the only good defenses they have played have done well against their offense
November 16th, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
Germans, Pearl Harbor, etc