Michigan Secondary Ranked #2 per PFF
https://twitter.com/pff_college/status/1462777154316509185?s=21
We will find out Saturday if this is because they have dramatically improved or based more so on their opponent’s lack of passing attacks.
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
I’m going to go with both. We have massively improved. It also doesn’t mean we’re good enough to stop OSU.
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
No one is stopping OSU's offense but can we slow them down enough to take advantage? We keep them under 35 points and I think we've got a chance. Play safeties deep, play off coverage, take away any deep throws and make them beat you on a shorter field. They'll move the ball but once they are in the redzone, then you can start to play tighter. They live off big plays and use the momentum to create an avalanche. Use their aggressiveness downfield against them. Bring pressure and keep their WRs in front of us.
This was the formula Alabama used to hold them down and I think that same formula applies. They gave them the underneath passes and relied on their secondary to tackle in space. Once they got into the red zone, you can play physical with their receivers without worrying about them blowing your top off. They'll get their points but if you can hold them to field goals even 30% of the time and that can be the difference between a blow out and a winnable game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
This, 100%. When facing a good offense, you don't play the game they want to play (Ohio State wants a short posession shootout because they'll score more often than you). We, for example, love ball control, long boring drives where we pound teams up the middle and slowly choke the life out of you. The way to beat us is to play the game Ohio State wants to play, explosive long touchdown drives where you don't let Michigan go on 15 play odyssey's that take 12 minutes each.
Like you said, play off coverage, keep safeties back deep to corral any plays that might break past the front 7, and make Ohio State score by taking 5-10 yard chunks all the way down the field. In the redzone, get physical as all hell and blitz the life out of Stroud so he has less than 2 seconds to make a snap decision against a coverage that's ever changing.
We can absolutely compete with Ohio State as long as we don't pull the shit we did against Michigan State where we let their best players start scoring 30 yard touchdowns with zero resistance. Don't be afraid to use a timeout if they're going up-tempo and catch you out of position on defense.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^
If this can turn into a "battle of 12 play drives" where Stroud is forced to execute consistently in the red zone, that's our best chance. Michigan has definitely improved in that area over the past few weeks, and OSU hasn't been tested there much, but when they have, that's when they looked vulnerable.
This is a game where you want to minimize the number of possessions and maximize the value of the ones you get.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
Your last statement is key and a real worry. 2ith tempo, we can’t be caught with our best linemen off the field. There aren’t enough timeouts though to call them repeatedly.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:25 AM ^
"They live off big plays and use the momentum to create an avalanche."
Exactly, very good analysis, goes right along with this:
"The team that starts the fastest, hits the hardest--the longest, and the team that's too damn smart to make mistakes!"--Wayne Woodrow Hayes
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:47 AM ^
The “we can stop OSU” is what got us slaughtered in 2018. You’re not going to. Either plan to try and score 50 points as fast as possible or Army ball the game and snap it with 1 on the play clock every possession. Doing anything else is playing to OSU strengths.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
College football is an offensive game. Michigan needs to improve their talent level and philosophy on the offensive side of the ball.
P.S. We need to improve our talent level throughout the roster.
OSU's screen recognition is excellent. Their defensive discipline is excellent. We need to match that discipline on both sides of the ball.
Watching the entire 1st half of their game against MSU....they are the best coached team I have seen this year.....by far.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
OSU's screen recognition is excellent.
Good thing that's not part of our offense. Lord knows it would be great if Corum could come back so we could run Texas routes with him and Edwards.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
It was really a comment about the contrast between their screen recognition and our lack of screen recognition. And the overall discipline of their defense in general as opposed to our lack of discipline on screens and misdirection plays.
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:45 AM ^
I think Macdonald’s varying and well-disguised coverage schemes will allow us to confuse Stroud and make a surprise interception or two. I know osu will make several big plays with those incredible receivers, but a couple of turnovers with methodical clock-consuming Michigan drives could make this one to remember.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:11 AM ^
I also think that Stroud has never seen pressure like he'll get from Hutchinson and Ojabo. He won't have as much time in the pocket as he's used to.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
MacDonald and the DEs giving Stroud stuff he hasn’t seen before along with a really loud home crowd could be the difference. A freshman QB on the road seeing confusing looks while being rushed in the pocket is usually a recipe for disaster.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
If anybody doubts whether we can get pressure on Stroud, go back and watch the Nebraska game Ohio State played 2 weeks ago. We all know how good Nebraska's defense is, and they were swarming Stroud all game long and forcing him to throw with pressure in his face. And surprise, surprise, when he doesn't have an hour in a clean pocket to read a defense, suddenly his accuracy goes down and their whole offense starts to sputter out. And you might even grab an interception or two along the way.
Ohio State has only faced 1 tough team on the road, and we're miles better than that team (Nebraska). Their tackles are basically untested still but have shown weakness against the best DE's they've faced (and ours are absolutely the best they'll face all year).
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:46 AM ^
The crowd noise will be suppressed as usual since Meechigan always surrenders 25% of their seats to Buckeyes fans.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
their o-line is pretty good. plus, there are 8-10 holds that never get called on hutch and ojabo. and before you say its osu bias, at the maryland game the refs were staring at it and just ignored bear hugs. Our entire sideline saw it.
Point is.. pass rush can be neutralized by the holds. If that happens, we're in for a long day. Up to hutch and ojabo to force the issue EARLY so the refs have to call it which will force the OL to tighten up a bit..
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
Stroud has improved a ton since that Oregon loss, but in that game Oregon was able to get to him and force him to make some bad throws. That was without Thibedeaux all game too.
Stroud does seem wary to throw the ball ways, which could give some chances for the breaks we need in order to win this game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
Pressure from the edge can be neutralized by getting the ball out quickly. Not to mention the fact that Hutch and Ojabo are going to be held like crazy and it’ll be called maybe once the entire game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
Correct - and Stroud is not a runner. Maybe because why should he. But his long for the year is 15 yds. Cade’s is 20.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
He will have a career high rushing day Saturday..
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^
I know osu will make several big plays with those incredible receivers
uuff, just got a sinking feeling in my stomach thinking about seeing those inevitable on Saturday.
November 22nd, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
You and me both. But we know they are coming, because that trio is too good to deny all game. That doesn’t mean we can’t still win the game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
No matter what happens Saturday, the secondary has been a pleasant surprise and has improved. After last season, I don't think anyone could have projected this group being a strength.
And look at us now, playing the game with everything still ahead of us.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:03 AM ^
The Maryland qb had major overthrow issues. Probably cost them 4 tds. Pressure helps cause that some though.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:33 AM ^
Agree, the Maryland QB was terrible - maybe the worst we faced all year. But, being fair, a lot of that had to do with the pressure the DL was applying.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:47 AM ^
You think Tagovailoa may have been the worst QB we faced all year? Really? I mean, yeah, he didn't play that well against us, but don't forget we played Mertz when he was at/near his worst, Rocky Lombardi, Noah Vedral (even though he played great against us), and whatever was left over at Indiana (among others). Even thought Tagovailoa missed some throws against us, he still had a few nice runs and was operating without his Top 3 WR's. I was glad to get them in our rearview mirror after they had those 2 quick drives for 15 points.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
Lol, “the Maryland QB”. No one wants to look up how to spell his name. Me either.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
The spelling is easy, it's the pronunciation that's harder. Tagovailoa but pronounced Tungo-vai-lo-a. I had to practice all that many times. (I hope I got that right)
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
It'll be truly tested vs OSU. At this point, it really seems like Stroud just throws it up and it's going for a TD. I think the crossing routes that have bit the Michigan D over the years may be the last of our concerns. Also I think Chris Olave has to be one of the best receivers to come through OSU. The kid catches everything and it usually ends up in the endzone. Play bend-don't-break D and hope they have to settle for FGs and make more than a few mistakes. Oregon script.
Okay, that's enough nice things about OSU. Anybody want to follow this up with a F the buckeyes reply?
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:12 AM ^
Their WRs just suck balls out the air. They could catch anything in their sleep.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
I would say all of OSU sucks balls...
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
OSU settled for zero field goals against Oregon. So, yea, there's that gameplan.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
I feel like our secondary has gotten a ton of benefit from two main things:
1. Having two maniacal DEs who are destroying the protection on a down-to-down basis, speeding up QB clocks and not allowing long routes to develop.
2. Having a Swiss-Army-knife guy in Hill that can paper over a lot of things.
I have this lump in my throat, however, that OSU's o-line will be strong enough--just like in 2018--that the pressure will be mitigated to the point that our DBs won't hold up against three NFL first rounders for 4-5 seconds. No one can. Seth's podcast take that teams have schemed up to stop our DEs by doubling Hutchinson and just blatantly holding Ojabo because they know it won't get called is not helping my psyche.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
Very good points about the pass rush and Dax. Have also seen a lot of improvement in secondary. The players and coaches deserve credit for their work.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
doubling Hutchinson and just blatantly holding Ojabo because they know it won't get called
It would help tremendously if our interior DL could exert some QB pressures up the middle, but we don't have anybody who can do that with any kind of consistency and in our defensive scheme that's not their primary goal anyhow.
I suspect our pass rushers are going to get held and outright tackled all game and the zebras will stand there with it all happening right in front of them and they'll shrug and do nothing. It's clear the officials hate Michigan in general and Harbaugh in particular, and they understand without having to be told that the conference bigwigs want OSU to be the Big Ten champion and playoff participant.
A conference that would sanction having officials in the UM-OSU game who had long, established records of overt OSU fandom has made it very clear how it views the two programs.
Regardless, somehow we're going to have to find a way to pressure Stroud—it can't be a replay of 2006, when our vaunted DL managed a measly one sack on 41 OSU passing attempts. Or in 2018, when we managed zero sacks, or in 2019 when we got one.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
Yep. Institutional bias against one of the top 2 national program's in the conference. That's it...
I believe in individual biases, but not in institutional conspiracies. I mean, how many people would have to be in on that without spilling a word?
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
I don't believe in B1G wide conspiracy theories much. But we all know the bias of the referee used in OSU game where we got screwed. Nothing has changed. So there is still a possibility of individual biases? And B1G letting that happen makes them look bad.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
It doesn't have to be organized or spoken directly about, or even overtly planned. Big Ten officials despised Schembechler, and they despise Harbaugh.
If the 2006 game had been played in Ann Arbor, and several of the officials were open, long-time Michigan homers, and were slapping the butts of Michigan players, and Michigan benefitted from an extremely questionable spot at a critical time of the game, OSU would not have kept quiet about it, and there would have been widespread national criticism of the conference for allowing obviously biased refs to officiate in such a critical game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^
Agree with all of this. So complain to Warde about not complaining and for not allowing Harbaugh to complain. In fact, Warde muzzled Harbaugh about it and agreed with the fine that was levied.
You want the B1G to start caring about its officials? Get Michigan (and others - PSU would be more than happy to join) to start complaining publicly about it.
None of that means there is a conspiracy. It means that incompetence and carelessness is allowed to fester.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^
One of these programs was literally allowed to have affectively two head coaches at the same time.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
For big rivalry games or big games, they should bring in refs from different conferences who have no ties. Sure, they can make stupid mistakes, but at least they won't be fanboys of OSU or give a crap about who actually wins.
I have not seen or heard of a single thing M or B1G has done to improve officiating after the infamous 4th & short (he was short) and the fandom of the referee used in that game. Too bad M doesn't take a stance.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:16 AM ^
I think the secondary will limit the OSU receivers. The key will be the pressure the D-Line puts on their QB. Look for a 34-31 win this weekend.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^
Am I the only one who thought that Maryland did a decent job against our Dline? There was some talk of blatant holds that didn't get called and their QB having a little mobility but I thought we'd get after him a little more than we did.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
I was at the game and watched both Hutch and Ojabo pretty closely. What Seth said during the podcast was spot on - the OTs were holding on tight to the outside of both shoulder pads. Neither Hutch nor Ojabo could move right or left, so they were forced to bull their way through. It was so very blatant! All year, we've seen them both going inside and outside the tackle, but against UMD all they could do was go straight. The fact that they still caused Tagavialoa to exit the pocket was amaizing.
A big key is whether the B1G officials allow OSU to do the same thing. I kinda like Seth's idea - try turning a shoulder and go down, bring the OL down on top of you. The refs would be forced to do something, and that is always going against the OL. Do it early in the game to put everyone on notice. Harbaugh needs to be ready to fight for it, also...
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
lol, thinking the refs are going to give Michigan any kind of advantage in any Harbaugh coached game.
Watch where they spot the ball when Michigan has it, you'll be amazed at the half yard errors
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^
I think our strategy was more contain than pressure, when we pressured it was off blitzes I felt like we were mostly trying to keep him in the pocket.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:24 AM ^
If M can consistently get home with the front 4, they will be in business. Can't ask any db to cover for 7 seconds with the way they call PI and holding these days. Make Stroud go through what Clifford went through and see if he has the will to keep getting up. If Stroud hangs in and makes tough throws with lineman in his face, then he deserves to win.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:28 AM ^
DJ turner has really improved. Rod Moore there’s some pieces there. The question is can they cover long enough for hutch and Ojabo to get home. If they’re getting around at 6 yards then the deep shots don’t have the time to develop.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:28 AM ^
I’ve seen this movie before though. Don’t really care what they’re ranked going into OSU.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
It will be the latter rather than the former.