Michigan is Ranked Number 1 in Team Defense
I was looking at team Stats and Michigan, through ten games, is ranked number one in the following defensive categories:
Total Yards per Game: 232.8
Points per Game: 11.2
Rushing Yards per Game: 72.7
We are ranked 4th in Passing yards per game: 160.1
The numbers speak for themselves. Kudos to our players and coaches.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/stats/team/_/view/defense/stat/to…
November 14th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
We all love a good stat and exciting plays. Fans will be fans.
A stop for 2 yards over and over again is kind of boring?
A run for 5 yards over and over again is kind of boring?
Containing a passer and forcing a throw away is kind of boring?
November 14th, 2022 at 6:57 AM ^
Love to see it. Some of these stats may be skewed a bit due to the SOS, but still impressive nonetheless. Can’t wait to see how this style and gameplay goes against the buckeyes in two weeks. Go Blue!
November 14th, 2022 at 7:38 AM ^
In conference play, Michigan is #1 in defense for ppg, ypg, rush ypg, and sacks.
https://bigten.org/stats.aspx?path=football&year=2022&conf=true
Was chatting after church with a buddy of mine who is a huge buckeye fan. His feeling is that it will either be a very close game or that Michigan will win in a blowout. Let's hope he's right on the latter point ;)
November 14th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
I think to myself. Oh no what if Stroud throws for 5 tds? Then I think well if they (OSU) are playing fast tempo we could still win by 2 scores. Crazy.
November 14th, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
I was about to add this. These are raw numbers. Two things that skew this for Michigan is SOS and time of possession. Michigan has a poor SOS, and because they dominate TOP, opponents get fewer possessions and plays which leads to better defensive numbers.
A better way to look at this is advanced stats that look at yards per play or yards per possession allowed adjusted for competition/SOS. Michigan's ranking with this adjustment is still one of the best in the country, but I don't think it is #1.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
SP+ has Michigan #3 in defense, behind Iowa and Georgia.
November 14th, 2022 at 7:41 AM ^
Yeah, I've seen this movie before. 2018.
The best passing attack we have faced was September Maryland, and they made us uncomfortable. November OSU makes September Maryland look like child's play.
If we go into the shoe with Morris at 75%, we're in trouble.
November 14th, 2022 at 7:55 AM ^
I agree that our defense may not be as great as the stats say, but it is pretty good. Also, the old problems with OSU was partially due to our scheme. The one we use now does not rely 100% on athletes that can keep up one on one with their WR.
Why Morris at 75%? You have inside info?
November 14th, 2022 at 8:12 AM ^
He was limping pretty noticeably at tend of game. Hopefully one of those short term type things.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:30 AM ^
Ohio had Dobbins in 2018, who is better than the current Ohio backs (Henderson is really good but a bum foot limits him and will keep him from burning us). Ohio struggled at home running vs. Iowa.
The 2018 team was burned by SMU in the 2nd half and Indiana for 2+ quarters with crossing routes. The big difference is you can't compare a Don Brown D with either Mike's or Jesse's. We aren't stubbornly trying to stop teams with pressure (that evaporates against an O line like Ohio that has future NFL players).
The tackling on this team is also infinitely better than the last years of Brown.
Now - playing in C-BUS vs a very motivated team is a problem - I think we lose a close game, say 34-27, but it won't be Olave getting wide open over and over again. Stroud also doesn't have the wheels of Fields or even Haskins.
This D reminds me of the best of Wisconsin and Alvarez and Bert - fundamentally sound, rarely gives up a big play (especially in the 2nd half after adjustments).
November 14th, 2022 at 7:41 AM ^
Michigan has played some truly atrocious offenses, but on the other hand so has the entire Big Ten. The best defense in the Big Ten is certainly one of the best in the country, and here's hoping they look like it in Columbus.
November 14th, 2022 at 7:53 AM ^
The Defense has completely shut the door the second half of the last five games. Closers who finish strong. Hope Mike Morris gets recovers quickly from whatever he sustained Saturday.
November 14th, 2022 at 7:59 AM ^
We literally haven't played a team that can throw a forward pass yet.
Corners will get torched against osu.. just hope our run game can control the clock
November 14th, 2022 at 8:12 AM ^
I look for lots of zone and doubling Harrison. That dude looks like he could be a franchise player on an NFL team right now. Shutting him down probably isn’t gonna happen so just limit his catches and make Cj uncomfortable with a clock going off in his head is the best we can hope for. If our O line is plowing their D into the linebackers I’ll be drinking scotch at the half.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:15 AM ^
Not sure that word (“literally”) means what you think it means.
Also, we played Maryland before they were broken (were lighting it up in the air back then) and a functional PSU team with a twelfth year QB that is capable. Held up well against both.
I would agree that the D has certainly benefited from a weak overall schedule and from an offense that just eats up the clock, but even with that, it has been a great showing through 10 games.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:27 PM ^
It's ridiculous that "literally" has entered the common lexicon to mean "figuratively" - which is the exact opposite of its literal meaning.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:21 AM ^
Literally every team we've played has thrown a forward pass.
As for the spirit of your comment, PSU, MARY, IU, and MSU all have above-average passing attacks. After 10 games, the "haven't played anybody" line starts to decay.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
How do you know? Last year we played the best OFFENSE to ever play on a field since the "Civil War!" Sorry but if we play Northwestern,"ANYWHERE" we beat them by 50!!!
November 14th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Make Stroud move a half step off his comfy chair and he quickly becomes quite pedestrian. Drill him a couple times and he curls up into a ball. This coin has two sides.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
First off, every team we played could "literally" throw a pass.
This team is so well coached that they are nearly NFL caliber in execution on both sides of the ball. It is this coaching combined with this new depth of talent that we have that gives the team such flexibility.
If UM needs to pass, they will. And the defense will make it tough on teams whatever they try to do.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
And OSU has played 3 decent defenses this year and looked average vs all of them.
November 14th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
Maryland, Penn State, and Sparty were more than happy to throw the ball, until our defense took that ability away from them. Clifford threw for 371 yards against the Buckeyes.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:25 AM ^
I believe it was somewhere during this point in the 2012 season that the Big Ten comprised nearly half of the top ten in the country in passing defenses. Which at face values sounds really cool, but when you stopped and remembered the Big Ten was really mediocre that year (a 7-5 Wisconsin team won the conference), you realized that the numbers may have been artificially inflated a tad.
My point is that while I know the Big Ten overall has improved since then, I’m wondering exactly how much Michigan’s SOS is factoring into these numbers. They are at least a partial factor, and Michigan has faced its share of atrocious offenses. There were some good ones in there as well with PSU, September Maryland before they were completely broken, but they also played Rutgers, Indiana, Iowa, etc.
We’ll know more in twelve days.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:32 AM ^
Glad to see that Michigan's defense is looking so good on paper and on the field, as far as we have seen.
Still concerned about:
a) how they will handle passing proficient teams such as OSU
b) whether they may be victims of their own success. One might wonder if they might be near the bottom in the number of defensive snaps through ten games.
Thus far, the offense has done such a good job with ball control for long stretches and the defense has been able to shut down the offenses they have faced that it hasn't been seen whether they have the conditioning stamina to hold up in a game where the offense doesn't dominate T.O.P. and they have to play a lot more snaps over longer stretches.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:34 AM ^
The Maryland game was our first vs. a real offense and it showed. Play them again and they don't get anywhere near 27. Even in that game, we slowed them in the 2nd half and were up 34-19 before the last minute TD.
Our D was the only team to slow down PSU (10 points scored, minus the double doink INT, and even that was on one busted QB run) during normal weather conditions. The NW game was played in the tropical storm conditions. Other than that, PSU has scored often.
We lack star power for sure, but love the focus on making people earn every drive.
November 14th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
Our beating Maryland had a lot to do with knocking Tagavaiola out of the game.
November 14th, 2022 at 2:56 PM ^
I don't think you saw the same game I did.
Taulia earned an 80.9 QBR with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Billy Edwards in relief threw a TD and 0 INTs, and completed 5 of 9 (yes, soft coverage, but also all obvious passing downs).
Taulia's a warrior--like his brother--but that was not the determining factor in that game. It was decided long before when Maryland gave up 243 rushing yards to Blake Corum while also deciding to make covering Schoonmaker, Bell, and Wilson optional.
November 14th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
“We lack star power for sure, but love the focus on making people earn every drive.”
That’s going to have to factor into how they plan on beating OSU, too.
Keep everything in front of you. Take away the big play opportunity as much as humanly possible, force them to execute by having to dink and dunk down the field and go on longer drives than they’d like, and then live with the results because there’s probably no gameplan you can make that will stop these guys, but you can do enough to slow them down. Maybe by doing that you can force them into making a few mistakes, or force them to settle for some field goals.
I do hope Minter is putting together some really creative blitz packages for this game. Hutch and Ojabo made life miserable for Stroud last year, and they ain’t walking through that door in twelve days, so organic pass rush may be at a minimum.
November 14th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
“We lack star power for sure, but love the focus on making people earn every drive.”
That’s going to have to factor into how they plan on beating OSU, too.
Keep everything in front of you. Take away the big play opportunity as much as humanly possible, force them to execute by having to dink and dunk down the field and go on longer drives than they’d like, and then live with the results because there’s probably no gameplan you can make that will stop these guys, but you can do enough to slow them down. Maybe by doing that you can force them into making a few mistakes, or force them to settle for some field goals.
I do hope Minter is putting together some really creative blitz packages for this game. Hutch and Ojabo made life miserable for Stroud last year, and they ain’t walking through that door in twelve days, so organic pass rush may be at a minimum.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^
Advanced stats would be helpful here, because our games probably have many fewer possessions than average because our offenses ability to stay on the field.
November 14th, 2022 at 9:12 AM ^
And how much we run the ball. Our time of possession definitely shortens games.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
For all of the Debbie Downers saying that our stats are basically over-inflated, let's just agree to disagree. There's also a defense somewhere near a toilet-bowl near you that is mediocre at best. Their offense has to be on the field to score. Our offense can and will impose their Will in C-Bus. Time equals defense. We have two defenses our offense and our defense. We will eat their brains out and Ryan Day is our new,"John Cooper!" We Will win in Columbus!!!!
November 14th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
I'm not sure about "mediocre at best." Top ten in defensive FEI:
- Georgia
- Iowa (!)
- Iowa State
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Illinois
- Kansas State
- LSU
I don't know if they've learned how to stop a sophisticated ground game but they're a lot better than they were a year ago.
November 14th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Wow. So their defense gets the benefit of the doubt especially with their SOS, but we're not that good because of our SOS. Not saying that you stated that. I'm just saying. Northwestern 21-7!
November 14th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
There are a lot more possessions in an average OSU game. They score fast; we run 15-20 plays and take 8-10 minutes off the clock.
I guess I'm saying there are two kinds of pace--there's running a lot of plays/minute by going quick no-huddle a lot, and there's having a lot of possessions by getting (and/or giving up) chunk plays. FEI is adjusted by play, but they have another stat where they adjust per possession. And net efficiency per possession has OSU and Michigan #1 and 2 in the country. Georgia is 3.
Northwestern was an outlier. Maybe a relevant outlier, bad weather in November in the midwest is a thing. But it wasn't a typical game for them.
November 14th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
Corum’s fewest YPC in a game this season was against Iowa. Their defense is legit.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Their offense has to be on the field to score. Our offense can and will impose their Will in C-Bus. Time equals defense. We have two defenses our offense and our defense.
This myth needs to die.
Michigan during 42-27 didn't stop OSU's big plays; big plays were all they had. (Same with Michigan State earlier this season, FWIW.) Nor did TOP keep OSU out of the end zone. Stopping them did. At key moments, Michigan got a sack or a TFL that ended the drive. This is none more emblematic than the second half when Michigan's drives got shorter and OSU either found the end zone or got nothing at all:
OSU: 3-and-out, 1:55, 14-13 M (M stop)
UM: TD in 1:15, 21-13 M (M score)
OSU: 5-and-out, 3:31 (M stop)
UM: TD in 2:30, 28-13 M (M score, this would be the final difference)
OSU: TD in 6:44, 28-20 M
UM: TD in 4:51, 35-20 M
OSU: TD in 4:29, 35-27 M
UM: TD in 2:28, 42-27 M
OSU: 6-and-out, ballgame (this drive didn't matter, as delicious as it was)
From basically a tie game, two stops = two-score margin. It's that simple.
- TOP was not the difference. OSU's TD drives were longer than UM's. Every time OSU scored, UM scored even faster. UM wasn't keeping OSU's offense off the field at all.
- Bend-don't-break didn't work. OSU's longest drives ended in TDs. The problem for OSU was that every time they made it a one-score game, UM punched them in the mouth and showed that they could do that forever. What created that problem were early stops that resulted in extremely short drives for OSU.
- UM didn't prevent OSU big plays. OSU converted some ridiculous 3rd-and-longs by throwing into tight coverage. UM won by getting more big plays of their own, beating OSU blow-for-blow.
- It was the stops early in the second half that decided the game. The way it was going, the game was over in the 3rd quarter and OSU knew it. It wasn't that UM was "holding onto the ball"; it's that they were scoring at will whereas OSU had to resort to increasingly desperate throws to keep their drives alive.
The offense's job wasn't to stay on the field; it was to score.
The only thing TOP means in the context of a ground-and-pound offense like Michigan's is that their offense is working. OSU's offense gets off the field relatively quickly, either by success or failure, so TOP doesn't tell them much about themselves. Michigan's offense is built around the five-yard-run, so successful drives take much longer -- at least when OSU isn't in panic-induced breakdown.
That's why UM wants TOP. A 6-minute drive for UM generally ends in points; a one-minute drive usually means they punted. Holding onto the ball for 40 minutes in The Game will mean they probably got at least field goals out of all their drives, which is something, but that's not going to matter if OSU gets an equal number of TDs in half the time.
To hang with OSU, we'll need the offense to score. To beat them, unless a drive somehow eats thirty minutes of clock, we're gonna need to stop them.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^
osu's receivers made at least 3 ridiculous catches to keep drives going or score a TD. we very close to beating them by 30+.
November 14th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
I don't think you can count "ridiculous catches" out of OSU's output when that's what they do. Their receivers are legit dangerous and that's precisely why they're dangerous -- you can have them in 3rd-and-15 and they'll just score a TD on you because they are the most dangerous passing attack in the country. It's not a fluke when they do that.
You're right if you're saying making OSU rely on "wow" plays lowers their success rate. They will get theirs, more than others, but the more they're forced to gamble, the easier it is to outpace them.
November 14th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
Good take. Alternating possessions are still alternating. Score or lose. Jim even said it.
November 14th, 2022 at 3:15 PM ^
Respectfully disagree (thank you for the detailed analysis) on one point I consider important and I think is the point of the post that began this sub-thread:
Time of possession is important in limiting the total opportunities the opponent has on offense and wearing out the opponent's defense.
Granted, when OSU gets the ball on offense, Michigan's defense will need to come up with a stop. Typically, that stop will come from either (a) a TFL, sack, or QB throwaway or (b) a great play in the secondary, because OSU's run game is not the weapon they rely upon this season.
The analysis you provide of last year's game is insightful, but IMHO not necessarily predictive, if only because Michigan's run game seems to be so much more efficient overall this year. (I'd welcome analysis comparing this year's run game to previous years!)
Given the state of Michigan's running and passing games, I could well envision Michigan putting together drives of 8, 9, and 10 running plays with 1 or 2 passes, converting for TDs in the red zone, and just driving OSU's defense to exhausted frustration. Eight minutes later, and Stroud finds himself slinging around the yard in desperation.
I think that's the slogging feeling of inevitability that the sub-thread OP was invoking by asserting that Michigan will "eat their brains"--like a zombie horde that just keeps coming and coming until the victim is too exhausted to fight back:
November 14th, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^
Everybody hedging their bets - 'but schedule', 'no B1G passing attacks', OSU is superfantasticawesomelybetterthananythingweveeverseen'...
Whatever. The fact is that the defense is better than last year. And that improvement is led by the DL - not necessarily individual players, but the unit as a whole. The LB's, with Barrett's growth, is holding serve with last year. The secondary, with Will Johnson's improvement along Mike Sainristil and Makari Paige stepping way up, is improved over last years unit.
The offense is surely holding the ball for extraordinary amounts of time. But the defense is kicking its opponent off the field pretty quickly, especially in the second half. Will OSU score more points and gain more yards? Absolutely! They have a pretty damn good offense! Even last year they threw for nearly 400 yds! And it didn't help. I don't think it'll help them this year, either. The defense is real - just like the offense.
November 14th, 2022 at 8:55 AM ^
Michigan is also first in First Downs Allowed with 127.
November 14th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
Illinois not far behind. Need a crisp offense this week.
November 14th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
Fifth in the conference in dFEI...and eighth in the country.
That's amazing. It's a schedule- and pace-adjusted stat.
November 14th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
Macdonald or / vs Minter? The answer, IMO, is "yes".
Macdonald did a great deal last season - introducing new approaches - schemes, vernacular, communication, alignment, etc. And, most would say that the D in 2021 was very good, or better. Yes, there were some exceptionally talented players on the squad - Hutchinson, Ojabo, Hill, Ross, etc. Part of the 'challenge' in 2021 was learning and adjusting. I think the D did quite well.
Now, this brings us to 2022 and Minter. Again, IMO, Minter, the D staff, and the players - have built upon the foundation in 2021, continuing player development, communication, and understanding. The "singular" players may not be as "standout-ish" as Hutchinson, but the unit appears to play with strong cohesion and is adjusting VERY well at / after halftime.
Who would I prefer - Macdonald or Minter? Again, the answer is "yes" - both have been strong, and most importantly "fit" well with the players - both have made significant contributions, and though they didn't work "side by side" - they are complementary to each other. Macdonald established the foundation and Minter is building on it. The communication is strong - understanding seems good, and - this continued level of performance is what I hope for.
Now, what would I hope to see in the future? The approach of the entire staff mirrors teams that play on Sundays. However, on Sundays, if a D waits until halftime to make significant adjustments, they'll be down by 17 points at halftime. A D's ability to change after a given series is a requirement on Sundays. I'm not saying Michigan's D doesn't adjust "series to series" in the first half - but, I expect that has been an area of focus, and will continue to be - in the future.
One other "hope" I have is - that Michigan opens solid leads (which I define as 17+ points) - so players on the depth chart (3's and 4's) have an opportunity for game experience, because there IS a difference between practice and in-game action.
Go Blue!
November 14th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
TLDR Minter > McDonald. Minter is getting as good production after losing Hawkins, Ross, Hutchinson, Ojabo, and Dax. He seems to be better at stopping "college stuff" and has made amazing halftime adjustments.
November 14th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Take the pick 6 ,punt block , and 3-4 garbage tds away , we give up around 9 ppg with starters
November 14th, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
This is underrated. The context of scoring matters a great deal in measuring a defenses effectiveness.
November 14th, 2022 at 10:26 AM ^
The numbers speak for themselves.
They kind of don't, though; they speak for our opponents. We've played a lot of crappy offenses and methodically crushed them. Which is all the team can do; they can't make opponents football better. But the defense's biggest weaknesses are linebacker and pass rush, and they've gone largely untested because opponents couldn't test them. Well, we have a game looming when that's suddenly going to change.