Michigan Medicine Illustrates Flatten the Curve
I am a visual learner and this gif of a graph sums up what trying to slow the virus a bit will accomplish. Hope this helps others understand why limiting crowds and contact can have a direct result in helping the health care system keep up with demand the sick will create.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:50 PM ^
Good info. What's even more important though is for everyone to wash their freaking hands as often as possible and don't touch their freaking faces. This is true 365 days a year, every year.
don't touch their freaking faces
I've tried and I can't do this. All I do is focus on wanting to itch my eyes or nose or whatever. I give up, just give me the damned virus already.
Why itch your eyes? Do they scratch?
#WordPolice
Just get one of these:
Heh I saw a pic someone posted of women shopping at Costco dressed with all kinds of germ protection. One was pulling down her mask to scratch her nose.
It just can't be helped.
If there is one thing that I have learned through all of this it's how much I seem to just love to touch my freaking face ALL. THE. TIME.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
14 days of quarantine may not be enough:
"A study published in The Lancet, a British medical journal, indicates patients with the novel coronavirus could remain infectious for as long as 37 days."
March 12th, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
I think the 14 day quarantine thought process stems from the incubation period of the virus. Theoretically you are quarantined for 14 days and if you don't show symptoms, you're good to go. If you do show symptoms, you remain quarantined until you're feeling better.
At least that would be the rational way to do it.
Agree. You can walk around for longer than 14 days and not show symptoms. I don’t know if that person is contagious without showing symptoms - anyone know for sure?
There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.
You can be asymptomatic but still contagious.
Awesome; the Michigan Difference response!
Thank you
Great information. The major problem is identifying the onset.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
This is really great, thank you
So is the idea that the same # of people contract the virus, but they are just spread out over time? I get spreading them out is the whole point of the video, but it wasn't clear to me if the total # of infected is decreased as well
March 12th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
my understanding is that the variable is just infection rate, not total number of infections. so the peak is lower, with the same number of infections overall.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
Depends on other factors. But slowing down the spread is the biggest deal. Because we desperately don't want ICUs to get overwhelmed. That's when the death rate spikes.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
The point of the video is that even if the same number of people get it, it is still valuable to spread it out. Social distancing should also theoritically decrease the number of people who get it, especially if it is like other coronaviruses that die under heat meaning summer coming will help (we don't know if this is the case yet but the lack of community spread in the southern hemisphere is a hopeful indicator) but that regardless if it reduces the total number it is still a winning strategy.
It's based on same number of people being infected, just spread out over more time so the medical system can handle it.
I think the idea is the virus is going to get around. Chances are we have or will be exposed. It's just a matter of slowing it down via soft quarantine to allow the hospitals to keep up.
Besides, allowing the hospitals to keep up, the other benefit of slowing it down is that it buys time for finding a vaccine. That being said, doesn't sound like that is likely to happen any time soon, if at all.
Sean Hannity says it's Fake News.
Not sure if a joke or a lie ? But a quick google shows me that Sean hannity isn’t taking the cornovirus very seriously.
The Hannity types on my FB newsfeed are saying similar things. However, the message seems to be evolving from "NOTHING TO SEE HERE" to "SHUT UP AND WARSH YER HANDSS." So, progress?
One of the few times I can remember thinking it's better to be a teacher than a doctor, PA, or nurse.
If they want to flatten the curve, it seems that the best way to do so is to send home students that have means of getting home which is a substantial majority of students. Living in a dorm or a frat or sorority house is like living in a petri dish.
Couple of big assumptions here. 1) Are college age students likely to have severe enough symptoms to be hospitalized 2) Does sending them home increase the spread to their parents who, obviously, are older and therefore more likely to need hospitalization.
It is not impossible that the number of cases needing hospitalization (not cases overall) goes up if the students go home.
I wish people would understand this great point.
For this particular virus, it's not a disease that really affects (in a "get them to the hospital" let alone fatal which is extremely rare) the 25 and under crowd. So even if they are in a "petri dish" they are isolated, relatively speaking.
For the colleges that think the solution is "Get 'em out of here," think how many are going to live with parents who are 60-plus --- quite a few, not to mention those who live with grandparents. Those are the really at-risk folks.
There are no easy decisions, but doing what Harvard and Amherst etc did (essentially closing the dorms, with short notice, for their students) are just as likely to be creating a higher "spike" in hospitalizations (due to infections of older family members) than they are solving.
I'm 25 and while I'm in a low-risk demo, I canceled a trip back to DTW for this exact reason. I'm sure as hell gonna do my damndest to make sure i don't get my parents sick, or others' parents and grandparents for that matter.
Even if it's just a cold - people are going to want to get tested, thus further clogging the health system. By canceling my trip, I mitigate risk of catching something at the airport/in the air.
Take care of your elders, even if it means avoiding them.
Yep. I normally meet my dad on Saturdays for breakfast. That won’t be happening for awhile. Hurts, but I have to do it.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:11 PM ^
So closing schools of all types makes no sense? Then why is this taking place?
Even if young people get mild cases or are asymptomatic, if they are out in the general population, they can infect those with a higher risk of a serious illness. That is exactly what you don't want with very limited resources. Dorms and dwellings with many people, i.e., frat houses, are notoriously effective for spreading disease...not a novel concept.
Don't stand close to other people.
Saw this same demographic on Reddit earlier this week.
We aren’t fully prepared. Impact of school closings and possible quarantines on my department(medical supply chain) has not been addressed yet.
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