Michigan Basketball's Updated Tourney Projection from Barttorvik
I decided to run through a few different scenarios for Michigan Basketball to see how their NCAA Tourney projection looks. Because the conference tourney matchups are up in the air, these simulations do not factor in those games. These results below essentially assume Michigan doesn't win a B1G Tourney game. Below is the range of what I found:
16-15 Overall, 7-13 Conf (2-6 to finish) = 5th Team Out of Tourney
Assumes wins against IU and Nebraska
17-14 Overall, 8-12 Conf (3-5 to finish) = 9 Seed
Assumes wins against IU, Wisconsin, and Nebraska
18-13 Overall, 9-11 Conf (4-4 to finish) = 7 Seed
Assumes Michigan has the following wins: @Northwestern, IU, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.
19-12 Overall, 10-10 Conf (5-3 to finish) = 7 Seed
Assumes the same wins as the above situation with @Rutgers added (best % chance to win per Bart Torvik).
20-11 Overall, 11-9 Conf (6-2 to finish) = 6 Seed
Assumes wins from above, but now adds @Maryland (next best % chance to win).
21-10 Overall, 12-8 Conf (7-1 to finish) = 5 Seed
Adds @OSU as a win
22-9 Overall, 13-7 Conf (8-0 to finish) = 4 Seed
Adds @Purdue as a win
Per Bart Torvik, Michigan needs to win at least 3 of their final 8 games to make it into the tournament. Their possible seeds range anywhere from a 9 to a 4 seed. I think for Michigan to feel safe about getting in, they need to go at least 4-4 to finish with a win or two in the conference tournament. Obviously finishing 3-5 can still get them in if they perform better in the tournament.
And to those who are already thinking to respond with, "There's no way this team could get anything higher than an 8 seed.", Bart Torvik is smarter than you. Believe statistics and metrics that are designed for this specific purpose.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:17 AM ^
Assuming no more injuries to key players, I like Michigan to at least win all remaining home games plus at Northwestern. They will then win at least one big ten tournament game. I think they will ultimately get in with a little room to spare.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:21 AM ^
There are two things that give me pause:
1) The precedent over the years has usually been you need to be close to .500 in conference play. I'm not sure 8-12 would get us in.
2) Would the committee really put 10+ BIG teams in? I'm not buying it (even if the metrics say that is what should happen).
February 10th, 2020 at 8:25 AM ^
I understand precedent, but if there was ever a year to break precedent it would be this one. The argument to put Michigan in at 8-12 in conference would be there quality wins and record in Q1 games plus the committee taking Livers' injury into consideration.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:37 AM ^
I'm not sure 8-12 would get us in, but OSU was 8-12 last year and made it as an 11 seed. Their resume was also significantly worse than a hypothetical 8-12 Michigan team.
February 10th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^
We don't have that .500 conference record, but our OoC SoS and resume are pretty solid
February 10th, 2020 at 1:50 PM ^
I think ten is pretty reasonable for the big ten, maybe 11, and Minn would be the 11th, right now IU is out.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:23 AM ^
-1 the guy is an ambulance chaser by trade. I highly doubt he is indisputably smarter than all of us that you have never met. Go fuck yourself. How's that for smarts?
February 10th, 2020 at 9:02 AM ^
You need a hug, buddy?
February 10th, 2020 at 9:27 AM ^
He may need some Snickers™ bars, too.
p.s. Where did your 6.7.0 go?
February 10th, 2020 at 9:31 AM ^
His Dutch is just okay.
February 10th, 2020 at 9:37 AM ^
You typed all of that AND hit send?! Feel better?
February 10th, 2020 at 11:49 AM ^
No hug needed, I kind of enjoy seeing how many negs I can get.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:28 AM ^
Their NET rating is keeping them down a bit. If they win out, their projected NET is just #25. Torvik's overall "resume" score (whatever that means) is #3 overall. I'm guessing they'd safely be a 3 seed at that point, and if they can manage a winning record in the Big Ten, they're no worse than a 5 seed.
With that said, finishing 9-11 seems like the most likely scenario at this point. That would probably place them in the 7-9 seed range.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:49 AM ^
Nobody would look forward to having to play Michigan as a 7-9 seed if we are healthy. I wouldn’t mind matching up with a team like San Diego state in the second round.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:49 AM ^
The committee also supposedly accounts for injuries, which I’m not sure torvik does. So a strong finish also makes the with vs without Livers split look better. That should translate to seeding as well. I think a realistic goal for the team should be a 6 seed. Getting to 21-22 total wins could do it.
February 10th, 2020 at 9:31 AM ^
This is an interesting point. Really makes it important to try to find a way to steal one or two of the non-NW away games down the stretch here. If Michigan is say 19-12 (10-10) at the end of the regular season, but that breaks down to 14-6 (7-5) with Livers and 5-5 (3-5) without Livers, that could help with the narrative. I think I heard Jerry Palm say that the guideline is that injuries do not factor into selection, but do factor into seeding which would seem to help Michigan.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:53 AM ^
Torvik is smarter but that doesn’t mean his algorithms don’t sometimes spit out weird things. A 17-14 team that is 8-12 in conference and finishing 3-5 isn’t a 9 seed, it’s a play in game as an 11 at best
February 10th, 2020 at 9:43 AM ^
On paper 100% but with a Livers injury thrown into the equation, the theory is they may recognize it and move us up a spot or 2.
February 10th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
If we go 3-5 with livers back the idea that he makes us an elite team is now gone. We will get a livers seeding bump if we go like 6-2
February 10th, 2020 at 3:57 PM ^
Yea this crossed my mind right as I posted...if we only got to 17 wins with him back it wouldn't truly say much. Touché.
February 10th, 2020 at 8:57 AM ^
The Big Ten is so congested and there are still enough games left that almost anything is still possible.
If the team loses out, maybe not even NIT.
If they win out the regular season, a good tournament bid is assured and a mathematical chance at winning the conference (incredibly unlikely though).
Win out regular season and BTT, very high seed (at least 2-3, but maybe even a 1 if chaos happens).
February 10th, 2020 at 9:05 AM ^
He’s not smarter than me if he thinks it’s going to be easier to win at Maryland than at OSU and Purdue.
February 10th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^
was going strictly off of spreads and the %chance to win. All three of those games had spreads separated by tenths of points and the percentages were all within 1-2% difference.
February 10th, 2020 at 9:12 AM ^
Survive and Advance. Beat NW.
February 10th, 2020 at 9:20 AM ^
Lies and damn lies!
February 10th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
Livers breathes new life into this team. I'm really excited to see how they finish the season. Just get to the tournament and see what happens.
February 10th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
It's amazing what someone can do with a healthy Liver(s).
February 10th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^
By going @OSU and @Rutgers it's not the safest assumption that no opposing player attempts to punch Livers' balls again.
February 10th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
I like their odds better with Livers in the lineup of course. But also - they need to play with that urgency they played with the other day against Michigan State. That could really help them grit out some games and move further off the bubble.
I want to see them go on a run of at least 4 games here and capture some of that success and attitude they had at the beginning of the season. I'd also like to see at least one road upset vs Rutgers, Purdue, Ohio State or Maryland.
Their big goal should be to get off the bottom rung and out of the no-bye 'relegation zone'.
February 10th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
If we end up in "need another win" territory, finishing 11th in the B1G and playing 14th seed NW could actually be better than finishing 10th and losing a second round game to the 7th seed. Depends on how you feel about the value of wins total vs conference finish. Of course if we get out of the "relegation" zone then maybe we aren't in "need another win" territory in the first place.
February 10th, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^
Win the games
February 10th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
I would recommend adding Big Ten Tournament games to your scenarios (which Torvik allows). What happens there can have a major impact on getting into the tournament and seeding.