Michigan 2020/21 Athletics
Question to the board:
How can college campuses and sports open for non-virtual interaction until there is a fore-sure COVID vaccine?
My view is that in-person classes and intercollegiate sports are suspended until we have a mass stockpile of vaccine later in 2021.
Neg me but let's hear from some experts that dispute this logic.
Stop living in fear. It's embarassing
Michigan is a huge elder care medical complex for ton’s of non-COVID illnesses. I don’t see Michigan risking things much.
The University will stay shut in for 2020 and into 2021 until there is a proven vaccine .,. that is MO
April 15th, 2020 at 12:24 AM ^
These are very low risk college kids. Have them do lectures online so older professors aren't exposed and so there aren't gatherings of over 50 or 100 people (and that does mean no sports), have them do smaller sections with seats spread out a little more.
Put kids with high risk conditions in housing with no shared spaces and direct access to their dwelling.
Kids have to learn and go on with their lives.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:33 AM ^
Thank you. We need more people to stand up and say 'no'. 'No' to living in fear. 'No' to walking around in (useless) masks that do nothing but serve to enhance rifts already in our society by making it seem like everyone you don't know is a threat. 'No' to destroying the economy in the name of public health. 'No' to executive orders -- at any level of the government -- that trample the constitution.
There is no guarantee that a vaccine will be available next year, in 2022, or ever. They've been working on an HIV vaccine for 40 years with little success. We can't pause the world until a vaccine is discovered, which means that ultimately we're going to have to face that fact that some people will get sick, and some people will die. That's part of life, and it sucks, and I wish it weren't true. But accepting that truth will help us end the fear and move on.
I think the idea that people are "living in fear" is misguided, often brashly declared by the most frightened among us. That aside, this post isn't about fear, it's about reality, and no amount of quarantining will sufficiently cleanse public life. A return to normalcy requires three things:
1. Mass-produced testing kits
2. Proven treatments
3. A vaccine
In the long term, Chinese "wet markets" and other such stews of human/animal pathogen cross pollenization need to be eliminated. That and the world's population needs to 1. shrink; 2. get its collective head out of its ass and start taking responsibility for the planet's future.
"Wet markets" aren't "Chinese." They exist in much of the world.
Most of the rest of your statement is similarly inaccurate. Although I do enjoy the wonderful illogic of aiming for strict restrictions to prevent pandemics whilst simultaneously stating that the world's population "needs to" shrink -- a concept which is, in a word, horrific.
The US is currently living in fear, whether you choose to admit that or not. These aren't words that I ever thought I'd type, but we move closer to a police state every day. And spare me the charge of hyperbole and look. Restriction on movement between states. Policemen ticketing worshippers at church. Mandatory wearing of masks, with a suggestion of jail time for failure to comply. A couple got arrested in Kauai for the crime of stopping at the grocery store on the way from the airport to their hotel.
We need to find a way to live in concert with this virus, because the idea that we'll be able to eradicate it in a short period of time may be naïvely optimistic, and the notion that we can continue to live under the current conditions for months or years is ridiculous.
What is most frightening is that a lot of people on here literally cannot see the conditions that are being created. I think there may be a large contingent of people who are only looking at this through the prism of short term individual convenience, ie, I don’t have to commute, I can get drunk without consequences, etc. They fail to see the lasting consequences that all of this could have on this culture if allowed to continue. There is also a huge “echo chamber” on this Board that has long been promulgated by the “no politics” rule. I would say a majority of people think that those who deem themselves “the rational” posters on this Board are pretty much out of their mind, but they wouldn’t know because they only read their own posts.
I love the "world population needs to shrink" types. Well, sacrifice yourself then. Oh, but you are too important right? If you want to have kids, they are more important? When your kids have kids, they are also too important?
You can't stand on your mountain and scream for change, when you are unwilling to change yourself.
Only possible alternative is if one of the currently in trial treatments turns out to be rock solid for 90% of patients. Which I don't see happening.
Okay, DOOMER
Doom is not no NCAA football in fall 2020. Doom is the 1918 Spanish Flu that came roaring back in the fall of 1918 to kill 50 MILLION people.
I don’t think that anybody is going to be doing anything for a long, long time.
People have fully lost their shit and I don’t know if it is coming back. Our governer has banned people from using their own property and people on here are applauding her efforts. People are talking about children asymptomatic carriers like it is some kind of impurity.
So, basically, until people wake the fuck up, whatever that “thing” is you are asking about, no it’s not happening.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:57 PM ^
Nothing causes me to ignore an argument quicker than someone saying "wake up." Why don't you throw in "sheeple" while you're at it?
April 14th, 2020 at 11:18 PM ^
Sheeple
It’s a valid question. You don’t deserve the down votes. One school, I think it’s Boston University, has already canceled classes until January. Kids currently enrolled in a big 10 school said their professors already having discussions about what to do if they have to close down for the fall semester.
Just to be clear -- https://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2020/04/13/boston-university-is-first-to-announce-it-may-postpone-its-fall-term-until-january-2021/#118ca7024bd5
They haven't cancelled anything, they're making a contingency plan (which the article even says is "very unlikely to happen").
You are right. As I tried to suggest with my misplaced “think” I meant I didn’t recall specifically. However, they are all making contingency plans. The only thing that will keep them from cancelling is a solution that is not yet developed. Now a very smart governor group is developing a set of middle ground plans that have merit where school classes for example are much more spaced out. But that doesn’t allow for football games with packed stadiums.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:36 PM ^
which one is your little filly?
Is there a nuance to this topic that is different than the post 3 below? Harbinger or Outlier......
I don't see the value in closing colleges down for the fall semester - run classes online just like you are now. However, I certainly don't see college sports (or any sports) coming back any time soon without some type of strategy to treat this awful virus.
Truly life changing stuff we are living through. Here's hoping we come out just fine on the other side.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:27 PM ^
Saw someone online say that the 9/11 era is over, we now live in the Covid-19 era and I can’t agree more.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:01 PM ^
Antibody testing for one. Actual case fatality rate not close to model prediction another. Need data vs. guessing and fear which resulted in state government tyrants running our lives.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:10 PM ^
No way man!! Finally, we don’t have to be negged by the blue hairs to sit down. They get to stay at home while we cheer on our near defeat to Army!!
April 14th, 2020 at 10:10 PM ^
Schools are open in Taiwan. If you are interested in learning what they are doing, I recommend reading this:
https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content_public/journal/jama/0/jvp200035supp1_prod.pdf
Highlights include:
Ramping up mask production. Using 1,800 Army Reserves to aid in mask production.
Feb 23 • 6.45 million surgical masks distributed to K-12 schools and after-school institutions before spring semester starts along with 25,000 forehead thermometers and 84,000 liters of alcohol-based sanitizers
• CECC coordinated with the Environmental Protection Administration, the Ministry of Education, and local environmental protection departments to disinfect public spaces around schools and school areas open to the public during winter break
• Ministry of Education oversaw commissioning of licensed companies to disinfect universities and colleges
Ministry of Education guidelines for suspension of classes due to confirmed coronavirus cases:
o If 1+ in a class (student or teacher) at the K-9 level diagnosed with COVID-19, class is suspended for 14 days
o If 2+ cases in a school, school is closed for 14 days o If one-third of schools in a township, city, or district are shut down, all others are closed o If a student or teacher is diagnosed in a high school, college, or university, all classes they attend or teach is suspended for 14 days
o If 2+ cases of COVID-19 in an institution at any level, it will close for 14 days
April 14th, 2020 at 10:31 PM ^
That’s really good information thank you. It sounds like one of the keys here is making I’m sure testing is readily available, hopefully we’re there soon.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:32 PM ^
Sorry for the formatting failure. Here’s another interesting link (with a creepy photo of mask-wearing cheerleaders.)
April 14th, 2020 at 10:33 PM ^
if the season is canceled we cant lose to OSU. I vote no football or basketball till 2021.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:37 PM ^
You guys need to get a grip. Have you ever worked in forecasting? The first rule is they’re always wrong. When you have little info, they’re shit. Any 2021 forecast is way too premature. Hell you don’t know what will happen in a month. It could get get better, it could get worse, it’s unknown right now.
April 14th, 2020 at 10:59 PM ^
No way man!! Finally, we don’t have to be negged by the blue hairs to sit down. They get to stay at home while we cheer on our near defeat to Army!!
April 14th, 2020 at 11:02 PM ^
I have been trying to keep up as much as one can on these topics. I highly recommend Ed Yong, who used to be my nerdy pleasure for studies on weird animals and is now putting out some of the best long-form responses to complicated questions like "when is this over?" Note that he stays out of the short-term political jabbing but he's British and won't pull punches with politicians who are more hindrance than help.
Anyway the complicated answer is that safety could change as we get answers to important unknowns. For example there's a (-n unlikely) chance that the virus might have infected a LOT more people and that we're already close to something like a 20% infection rate, which would be GREAT because we could move this whole thing along faster toward herd immunity. Or we could be at a 3.5% infection rate in which case we are fucked without a vaccine. We don't even know if getting the disease gives you immunity, 95% immunity, or if 95% of people will get immunity, or how long immunity would last.
But given the limitations of our knowledge and the limited time a society can stay quarantined, the responsible thing to do is very very very slowly reintegrate with lots of social distancing measures, and then respond to outbreaks.This means a lot of testing availability and a plan to quickly catch an outbreak and reinstate drastic measures.
What that might look like for the University of Michigan would be holding most classes online but reopening the labs with social distancing measures. Then reopening seminars with chairs distant and free masks and gloves everywhere. Then reopening lectures with every other seat rules. And constant screening random stop testing, and measures to make sure students who are feeling at all unwell won't be pressured to come to class (e.g. tests will all be administered online), and double or triple the medical resources. If there is a COVID positive, the student's connections are traced and quarantined, and sections of the school are shut down again like they are now. If there is a COVID outbreak, the whole school goes back on lockdown while tracing occurs.
The vaccine, and getting enough of it to vaccinate the world, is the endgame, the casting of the ring into Mount Doom. Until then we are going to have to cobble together plans based on the best science, and hold to them as best we can.
April 14th, 2020 at 11:43 PM ^
Excellent summation.
April 14th, 2020 at 11:35 PM ^
Or, here is a thought, create social distancing methods that are functional and not based on shutting classrooms down.
April 14th, 2020 at 11:42 PM ^
Well, there is one other way, though it might be better if it doesn't come to that.
Two ways of developing widespread immunity: 1) We could invent a vaccine like you said or 2) the virus infects enough of the population that widespread immunity is developed that way.
Obviously, we're really hoping for #1, because #2 means that more people will die, but we really have no idea of the timeline of a vaccine's development. To that end, one of the main arguments behind "bending the curve" is to prepare for #2. Even if we can't stop the virus, if we can just extend the time it takes for everyone to get infected, then we can prevent our health infrastructure from becoming overwhelmed, which will increase the survival rate.
From what I've read, even most public health officials don't expect that everyone will be able to wait in lockdown until a vaccine is developed. Instead, some are arguing for a rolling series of loosening and tightening restrictions that will vary based on specific local situations. We'll open things up a bit in a particular area, cases will jump, then we'll lock it down again to give the hospitals time to handle the new influx. Open up, then lock it down. Repeat until herd immunity is established naturally or a vaccine is developed.
April 14th, 2020 at 11:58 PM ^
Yeah well said. I hope everyone noticed too that there are some huge grey areas in there. You ask hospitals right now when can they be ready for us to let more humans get exposed and they're going to look at you with bloodshot eyes like you're asking to murder their families. People have to understand the shock we just put our healthcare system through. We need hospital capacity more tests, more people trained to handle Covid-19 cases. Many hospitals around me (metro Detroit) were way past what they could handle at peak efficiency. One was stacking bodies in storerooms because the morgue was full.
We're also already very low on the kinds of supplies you need to treat this, and reproducing them on the scale they're going to be needed when the whole world needs them is a supply chain nightmare.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:18 AM ^
This is all true, and part of the difficulty is that these decisions are going to have to be made many times over according to specific local circumstances.
My sister is a doctor out in Portland, Oregon. Things have actually been very slow for her lately. There have been very few cases of the virus at the hospital where she works, the elective surgeries that she normally does have all been canceled, and much of the population is terrified of being anywhere near a hospital right now and have stopped visiting the hospital for other ailments that would usually occasion a visit. As a result, she got the last week off. First full week off she's had in years (At least that I can remember). Meanwhile, it's all-hands-on-deck in NYC, where healthcare workers are in hell.
It might seem odd, but part of opening things back up is going to mean loosening restrictions in some parts of the country at the same time as we clamp down harder in others. These are going to be very difficult decisions that will have to be made very carefully over and over again.
Hey Jack,
I think your last paragraph is right on. We are going to have rolling issues with this thing until either a vaccine or effective therapeutic is available on a wide scale. It's been described as essentially playing whack-a-mole until a solution is found which I think is right.
We will reopen relatively soon, but the new normal won't be any sort of normal for some time. It will be interesting to see how schools/colleges are dealt with in this scenario.
One thing we all need to remember is that although it feels like we've been dealing with this for years, it's only been a handful of weeks for the United States. There's going to be a ton of valuable data that will come out over the weeks and months ahead that will provide some clarity on how this thing will be dealt with. Hang in there everyone!! The old saying certainly "It's always darkest before dawn" definitely applies to our current situation.
Seth - well said. Thanks
April 14th, 2020 at 11:50 PM ^
What I fear most about waiting to test someone who might be sick with this virus is that it takes up to two weeks to be symptomatic. That means someone in who tests positive, the virus has had up to a two-week head start on an outbreak or regional epidemic. I really don't know why public health officials are putting all of their eggs in that basket.
We would be much better off by massively increasing the number of Kinsa's smart thermometers in the population. Their data showed a spike in illness two weeks ahead of the first confirmed cases of Covid-19, and the pattern was followed everywhere except Southern California. Confirm a regional outbreak with testing, of course; but don't wait for testing either. By then, it's too late to stop the spread, especially in places like college campuses.
This has the potential to alter all of college athletics. Many athletic departments rely on football to pay for everything else. If the season is canceled and football does not come back until fall of 2021 I am wondering if there may be schools that simply won’t have athletics or will have to cut most of their sports. Can Michigan survive? Probably but some schools might not be so lucky.
original deleted after thinking better about a sarcastic post
You are wrong fore shore.