Michigan's When Leading After 3 quarters under Harbaugh
Michigan is 50-4 when leading after 3 quarters under Jim Harbaugh. Each of the losses is a soul crushing dong punch.
2015 - Michigan vs. Michigan State led 20-14 - lost 27-23
2016 - Michigan at Ohio State - 17-14 - Lost 30-26
2018 - Michigan vs. South Carolina - 19-16 - lost 26-19
2021 - Michigan at Michigan State - 30-22 - Lost 37-33
Saturday reminded me a lot of a game I went to in 2000. Drew Brees vs. Drew Henson on October 7, 2000, Michigan led 28-10 at the half at Rose-Ade Stadium. Only to lose on a last second field goal 32-31. That was twice that year Michigan blew 28-10 leads on the road. The other was at NW in the 54-51 loss.
That being said I am looking forward to Saturday. Go Blue!
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
that's a crazy good winning percentage.... you think we'd be happy with that.
I think what hurts most is, like many times..... they didn't necessarily beat us, as we beat ourselves.
beating yourself at home, in the shower = acceptable
beating yourself on the field vs a rival = not acceptable
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
beating yourself at home, in the shower = acceptable
phew, good. was worried about that
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:08 AM ^
The percentage is over looked because 3 of the 4 loses are to our rivals.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
True. This 50-3 after leading after 3 quarters stat is also one of those stats that I’m not sure is super useful. I’d need to see JH’s percentage compared with others. I’m sure his percentage would be close to the top for active coaches but I’m not sure how significant that is. The odds say that if you have completed 75% of a task, you are most likely going to finish that task. If you are winning thru 3/4’s of a game, I’m sure the odds overwhelmingly say you win the game. Rankings/SOS would also be interesting to factor in to this. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that if your record of winning a game after leading thru 3 quarters isn’t really high, you’re a terrible coach. This stat is probably like a goalie’s save percentage. Just a few percentage points can be the difference between a stud and a terrible goalie. It’s an interesting stat, I’m just not sure what can be gleaned from it. Obviously the losses stick out, but again, context always needed.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^
Exactly. Without context it doesn't mean that much. It's almost certainly not significantly worse than anyone else / expectations but my gut suggests it's probably not significantly better than most other teams, either. Certainly not upper tier P5 teams that get to play a decent number of G5 teams against whom they'll be up 30 after three quarters.
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
And the fourth was in a bowl game, which qualifies as a big game in my book (though it might challenging for players to muster up the same level of fire and energy for an Outback Bowl that they would have for a rivalry game).
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
So, Harbaugh is like 6-20 or something when tied or losing in the third quarter. I'll never watch a fourth quarter of Michigan football again. Ball crushing loss outweighs a comeback and it appears they are as likely to happen as the other.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:48 PM ^
You must be using the new math or something.
6/26 = 23%
4/54 = 7.4%
4th quarter comebacks are 3 times as likely to happen as the ball crushing loss. If you are going to make ridiculous statements, try something that isn't obviously and provably false.
November 2nd, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
We really gonna have 21390483109481389 threads on this.
Michigan played pretty good. MSU played pretty good. Michigan got hosed on the ref job and lost.
The whole world saw it, and Michigan didn't drop much in the polls.
Now is the time to unite and Michigan to go on a tear and build on that passing game / get the running game going. Choo Choo MF'ers.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
I am right with you. 7-1 9/10 in the polls is really good.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
Yup. I agree. The best team in the B1G will be decided on the last Saturday of the month. Lessons are being learned, the preseason questions are being answered, and the flukey loss to State will finally be that 'steel in the spine' that Harbaugh's always bellowing about.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
I like the glass half full attitude. Two keys for the rest of the season, obviously:
1) Much better Red Zone offense resulting in more TD instead of FG
2) Up tempo opposing offenses that Mc Donald will have to deal with. This could his Don Brown moment if he doesn't clean that up.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
I don't understand why he didn't just have a DL fall over and grab his ankle every time MSU went tempo. It's a little dirty and the crowd would lose their minds, but southern teams do that all the time. Maybe after McDonald learns the college game a little better he will teach it.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
Ha ha. The good old soccer fake injury. Grabbing the foot and on the death bed and the red card, spring up and go on with your life. I don't think it will ever happen in Michigan. If this is in the cards, they would have taught their linemen to just grab the opponent's jersey every play.
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
Yeah I agree, I hate it. Penn State actually did this constantly against Iowa this year and they don't even run a tempo offense. After every big gain a Penn State player was on the ground, clutching a body part It became pretty apparent in the second half. It was actually fairly effective, even just as a way to stifle Iowa's momentum.
It's annoying and it's a pretty cheap move. But I agree that it's a bit of gamesmanship and can be pretty smart if employed properly. I wouldn't be too ticked off if a Michigan player was a little slow to get up, especially if he was dinged up on the play and wasn't supposed to be on the field for the next play. Take your time, let refs call an injury timeout. Hopefully that will give you some time to gather yourself, get in your subs and d up. But , if you do this more than once I think it becomes unsportsmanlike (but at the same time, if M was getting screwed by the refs, screw it, might as well shape the game to your advantage as much as possible).
November 2nd, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
Oh Paddy dear, and did you hear
The news that's going 'round?
Now Notre Dame is winning games
With players on the ground!
The first to hit the ground this day
Was Frank Varrichione;
The Irish claim that he was hurt,
But others cry, “Baloney!”
He stopped the clock, of that no doubt,
And then the Irish scored;
So Notre Dame tied up the game,
And all the faithful roared,
But 30 minutes still remained
Of this grim football game,
And Iowa would take no guff
From proud old Notre Dame.
The end drew near, the Hawks now led,
And seconds fast were fleeting,
So someone had to stop the clock
To halt an Irish beating.
Few seconds showed upon the clock
When suddenly was spied
Not one bold Mick ‘upon the turf
But two lay side-by-side.
A whistle stopped the clock again,
As Penza and Hunter lay,
Upon the ground where they’d been dumped
So frequently that day.
But kind hands raised the fallen boys,
All Hope was not yet dead,
For straight the ball to Shannon flew –-
Guglielmi used his head.
And so the game wound up a tie,
But who deserves the fame
For staving off defeat that day
For proud old Notre Dame?
You have your choice of heroes here –-
Penza? Varrichione?
Or maybe you like Hunter best?
Let’s have your testimony.
Strange things have come to pass, I think,
At proud old Notre Dame,
When lying on the ground reflects
Undying football fame
--Hank McCormick, sports editor of the Wisconsin State Journal, reporting on ND's 14-14 tie with Iowa in 1953. Both Irish touchdowns were scored on the last play of a half following "injuries" that stopped the clock; the NCAA responded by outlawing the feigning of injuries.
November 2nd, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
I posted essentially this on another topic. Harbaugh has made some excellent strides this year toward improving preparation and in-game coaching, but he has a ways to go, especially in these two areas.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
What he said ^
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
Thank you for your post. It saved my
?$&@
November 3rd, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^
Just this...
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
Do we dare count the number of Red Zone field goals in all those losses?
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Lots of field goals and a fumble at the 2 yard line that we may never forget.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
One of those games isn't much like the others at all.
OP, would you really classify the SC loss as a soul-crushing dong punch? It was at the end of a rough season and didn't mean nearly as much as the other losses.
Anyway, here's an old MGoBlog piece I posted recently in another thread. The 4th quarter has sometimes been interesting for Michigan football:
https://mgoblog.com/content/keep-it-close-and-lose-fourth-quarter
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
You are right. Let's replace it with 2016 Iowa. Iowa only lead 11-10 at the end of 3 quarters.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
yeah, I was like, uh, that game was probably the least meaningful in the entire Harbaugh era. Meh.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^
Yep. A 12 year old article and it’s still just as relevant to Michigan football as it was back then.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
Good stat. Kind of places the kibosh on the tenor of Brian's latest about how we'll usually find a way to lose it.
The real story line of this one is that we outplayed 'em in most facets, got dicked a little, their RB went off, several times as the D was getting set. Fuck MSU, fuck the refs, and pity the chronically depressed people who can see nothing but gloom in it. Or--hell--let 'em marinate, as is their wont. I'm 65, and I can tell you: Life is very, very short. Most things ARE out of our control. If you're controlling for the things that ARE in your reach and choose misery. . . others may stand clear.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
Two things:
1. I don’t think losing to South Carolina can be considered a soul crushing dong punch and comparable to the other 3 games on that list.
2. I was at both of those 2000 road losses as well as another difficult road loss that season @UCLA. Saw goal posts ripped down at 3 away stadiums that season. Fun.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
I was at that 2000 UCLA game too.
Great vacation and game until Navarre threw the interception late. Hottest game ever, something like 112° that day.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^
Those losses definitely sucked. But 50-4 is really, really good. I had no idea the record was that good, in fact.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
It's hard to say how good it is without having any point of comparison. I would bet that tons of teams, probably most, have a good winning percentage when leading after 3 quarters.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Yep, that's like saying a team has a 50-4 record when they are a top ten team against an unranked team. Only lost 4 times, but.....yeah you suck.
This is the problem I have with the insanely over-quoted stat about JH not beating ranked teams on the road. OF COURSE he doesn't beat teams that are rated on the road. Most of the time the teams he doesn't beat are rated WAY higher than us. Not supposed to beat them.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:10 PM ^
50-4 is a .926 win percentage. Considering that stat this covers all leads, from one point to 50+, that’s extremely good. And it’s a hefty sample size.
November 3rd, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
I understand that. A .926 win percentage after leading for 3 quarters could be middle of the road for D1. I don't know. The numbers don't mean much with no point of comparison.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
I have always and will always refuse to allow the University of South Carolina Gamecocks punch me in the dong.
November 2nd, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
ALWAYS
BE
CLOSING
(Apologies to those who'd consider this clip to be "too soon", considering the actor who's delivering the speech.)
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:04 PM ^
Thank you for posting this! I did somewhat similar research this weekend, figuring out Harbaugh-era Michigan's record in games where it led going into halftime - it came in at over 86%. I also looked at three other teams - OSU, MSU, and Penn State - and found that their winning percentages for those games were similar - 85-90%.
The one really depressing part: Michigan, MSU, and Penn State all have won around 30% of those games where they are behind at halftime (Michigan had a slight lead over the other two in this regard). During the same time-frame, OSU won 72% of those games. In other words, since 2015, OSU has had a better win-loss record in games where it trails at halftime, then Michigan, MSU, and Penn State for all of their games.*
*Hope this doesn't come across as thread-jacking. I just figured that my take is more of a snowflake take on win-loss records, that it doesn't need its own post, and that it bolsters your point that it's the quality of those losses that's significant, not the quantity.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:11 PM ^
The magnitude of the blown lead might be more indicative:
2015 vs. MSU...led by 9 midway through the 4th quarter
2016 vs. OSU...led by 10 late in the 3rd quarter
2018 vs. South Carolina...led by 16 late in the 3rd quarter
2021 vs. MSU...led by 16 late in the 3rd quarter
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:23 PM ^
I honestly just think that over the past 10-15 years there has been a complete role reversal in the MSU rivalry. What do I mean by that?
There really are no "Sparty NOOO!!" moments anymore. Not when they play Michigan. In fact it is quite the opposite. Each of Michigan's losses to MSU over the last several years have come in soul-crushing fashion where Michigan inexplicably loses after having a big lead, a one in a million special teams error, throwing five interceptions in a four point game, or letting a completely decimated roster and a terrible QB go Joe Montana on you. Situations that Michigan should never have let happen but they happened anyway. It has now become "Wolvy NOOOO!!!"
We are now to MSU what MSU was to us before Dantonio showed up. A team that when push comes to shove in big time games and big time moments, all you have to do is sit back and wait for them to beat themselves. Its pretty remarkable.
We saw almost the exact opposite happen with both basketball programs too. Michigan was a doormat for years before Beilein showed up. MSU's whipping boy. Beilein shows up, gets his guys in, Michigan starts winning and beating its instate rival, wins them a bunch of games and getting noticed nationally. When Beilein leaves, everyone at MSU assumes (like we did with Dantonio) that Michigan basketball is about to fall off a cliff and fade into irrelevance. Instead, we hire Juwan, they hire Mel Tucker, and both hires instead start to look genius. Both up their program's recruiting prowress and re-establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with, if not the force, in the state. Pundits now start asking for both programs "are these guys national title contenders?"
Truly remarkable how both schools are mirror images of one another (athletically) in a lot of ways.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^
Pretty much spot on. We are the laughingstock waiting to happen in big moments. And there is no magic formula. One of these days we simply need a team to step up to the plate and get the job done.
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:29 PM ^
Wouldn't losing after leading by 3 quarters be a "soul crushing dong punch" by definition?
November 2nd, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
Both Carr & JH like to play conservative with a lead. At least we weren't playing prevent defense the entire second half.
November 2nd, 2021 at 4:29 PM ^
Is there any evidence that playing conservative with a lead is bad? Or that it's good, for that matter? This feels like one of those questions where people are so emotionally invested in their opinion that they'd rather not look into it.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
I was at that Purdue game in 2000 as well and this one didn't feel like that to me at least.
That game was 18 at halftime, not 9. And while M got it up to 16 that's still two scores instead of three. Saturday never really felt like it was anything but back and forth.
That game in 2000 Michigan was dominating and then Lloyd did Lloyd things and just tried not to lose it.
Michigan did the opposite Saturday, IMO, voluntarily or not. Instead of keeping Cade in and handing it off they kept running the offense and were too aggressive (putting JJ in, going for a slot fade when all you need is three yards, etc).
The refereeing was also a much bigger story Saturday than the Purdue game.
November 2nd, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
I rejectl the inclusion of this past game in those stats. Two no calls in 4 th aided MSUs momentum and altered the game. Unless Harbaugh can be made responsible for the no calls, the rain on the last drive and the fumble, go fish on the implication that he controlled significant facts in the 4 th
November 2nd, 2021 at 3:20 PM ^
You can't control the referees. There is a long list of things Michigan did control and failed to execute.
Now it's true, if Michigan does the identical things and the refs officiate better, Michigan wins. But Michigan also wins if they hold the MSU running back to something less than 197 yards and 5 TDs. Or if they get lined up when MSU runs tempo. Or if Blake Corum catches a gimme pass that he usually catches. Or...I could go on.
November 2nd, 2021 at 5:35 PM ^
I love the phrase, "soul crushing dong punch." Sure felt like it each time!
November 2nd, 2021 at 6:40 PM ^
Out of the Big Ten coaches
Harbaugh
Franklin
Frost
are the only coaches who would lose that game Saturday. It would not matter if they were leading or losing at the end of the 3rd.
November 4th, 2021 at 12:28 AM ^
I want to replace the OP.
November 4th, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
So lets just add a wrinkle to this post. What if JH had a Kenneth Walker 3rd type of running back? In seven years our backs haven't come close to his caliber. Corum and Haskins are fun to watch but we all saw what a dominating RB he is. Wisconsin and OSU have had the great backs as well. And I'll add Barkley with Penn State.
Our 4th quarter losses can be contributed to both QB and RB dominant play or lack.
Can we not say we just haven't had the talent level of QB and RB combinations?
I conclude that the difference last Saturday was not superior play calling by MSU. It was the superior running of Walker who gashed our guys when they were gassed. So if we are going to blame HB for something lets cut to the chase. Harbaugh has never had a Barkley, Walker, Taylor or Dobbins quality running back. These guys are difference given good QB and receiver play. IMO