Michigan's 2012 Schedule

They also lose their best corner and David, if I'm correct.

I think this is good analysis, but Manti Te'o is staying for his senior year.  

EDIT:  Beaten to the punch.

Te'o is back for ND. I personally think we'll lose 1 game in Big 10 play and go on to the Big 10 championship game.

I don't know what to make of the MSU game next year.  Their D could be the best we face all year, as they don't lose much from this year's already stout defense.  Who knows how their first year QB will perform?  Logic says that their pass offense will be mediocre at best, but they should still have a solid rushing attack with probably the best stable of runningbacks in the B1G. 

OTOH, it's in the Big House, we return nearly everyone, and have some really solid young guys that will only get better.  I think it will be a tough game.

In all honesty the "tough" road games are looking easier and easier. Like you said, we should be able to take care of ND, and I honestly think we win @Nebraska easily. Mostly because I know a Nebraska fan and he is extremely pessimistic about their team next year, he thinks about 7-8 wins. Ohio, State, and Alabama are the hardest games on the schedule imo. Also can't count out Iowa no matter what, they got 3 in a row on us.

FYI Te'o was a Junior this year, and is returning for his senior season.

Ya know, after looking at the schedule pre-season and hearing how many people say that 2012 was just gonna be nasty, then looking at this... I'm actually not that nervous. Our defense was a dumpster fire last year, this year they won us a BCS championship game. The DL might be weak (BWC step up? Pipkins?) and the lines both might be a bit thin (biggest negative of the year), but the backers and secondary play should be much improved. Add in a second year for most of our offensive skill players and a lot of hte line and I see a pretty decent offense.

Alabama will be tough to win but any other game on that schedule is quite winnable. The closest toss ups are Notre Dame (we played like garbage and won), state (no cousins, at home), Nebraska (we whipped 'em this year), and Ohio State (Sure, it's away, but they had no problem scoring and we still won this year.)

If this team stays healthy and can pull an upset against 'bama a MNC, BCS, and B10 Championship are all pretty likely, not to mention the preseason polls should help a bit by us starting ranked in the low teens.

Next year would be it. 

We would guarantee ourselves a national title spot with that OOC schedule. 

It really depends on how well we replace our key guys on the line (Molk, Martin, Van Bergen), Koger and Hemingway (won't be able to just chuck it up and hope next year, unless Stonum has been practicing for the part). 

But once again, we get better in a lot of key areas:
QB: Senior Denard, 3 year starter, 2 years with Borges

RB: Finally solidified with Fitz

LB: Junior Demens, Ryan looks like a star in the making, everyone else gains a year of experience.

Secondary: Everyone in the two-deep back but Woolfolk. 

Alabama is the only game on the schedule where I don't hold much hope. But if we pull that out, the sky is the limit. 

I'm not gonna pencil in a win in Lincoln next year just yet, but I honestly expected more from the huskers this year and am not ready to figure on a loss. Maybe the toughest environment we play in all year, but I think they've got a few more reasons to be nervous about us than we should about them.

And another thing, does anyone else think we're gonna see an offensive bump in the offense's second year under Borges? Denard's regression has to have an answer and I think they'll find it this spring/summer. He took a major leap in his second year under RR largely due to an understanding and getting the feel of the offense, and I expect to see, albeit maybe not quite so big, a bump nonetheless in his passing game, and in return, the ground game as well.

It's impossible to predict the fall season in january.  So much could happen between now and then.  Plus, who knows what teams will progress/regress, who will have injuries, or even if we can overcome the losses on the DL.

I think we couild go in a lot of directions next year, so that gives me some consternation.  The only clear cut games where we "should" lose is Bama and we "should" win is Minny. 

That said, I personally like our chances because of (1) system familiarity; (2) Denard will be better as will our secondary (presuming Floyd stays); (3) way the Freshmen and Sophs looked towards the end of the season (4) style of play will produce many wins against the meddling middle teams (Ill, NW, Mass, and Purdue) and (5) Hoke poops gold (as proved by the lottery winning style luck we benefited from in the Sugar Bowl). 

I am concerned about (1) the loss of seniors on both sides of the ball (Molk, Hemingway, RVB, Martin), (2) MSU, Air Force, Iowa, ND, OSU, Nebraska are all formidable opponents in my mind and unless we have marked improvement in our offense and continued performance from our defense (which is not a given with the above losses), going .500 through this crew is not a given..

My predictions:

Bama - L (victory or not getting blown out is a good thing here)

Air Force - W (barely)

Mass - W

ND - L

Purdue - W

Illinois - W

MSU - W

Neb - L (I could be wrong here as I still have a nagging feeling like we are going to treat them like we PSU, when we beat them regularly upon entrance to the contest)

Minny - W

NW - W

Iowa - W

OSU - W

9-3 reg season

That all said...If we beat Bama though...watch out.

 

We just went 11-2 with a young defense.We do lose some key players but this is Michigan for godsakes!!!We have a top 5 class coming in. The seniors will lead TEAM 133.Our schedule is not death row you guys calm down.GO BLUE!!!

we can lose almost all of of our tough games (Alabama, ND, and Ohio) and still most likely make it to the Rose Bowl.  I'd have to think that we'd be favored over both of the likely winners of the Leaders division (Penn State and Wiscy) for the Big Ten Championship game.

I can't see us losing to MSU at the big house again.  It'd be like Ohio where we have an amped up crowd at home vs. a rival and they lose a lot on offense.

1) @Alabama - I almost agree. Actual percentage chance of winning is 33.33 (repeating of course).

2) Air Force - Not a gimme. Tricky offense that we won't be able to cheat and prepare more than a week for. Also big potential for let-down due to a) deflating loss to 'Bama or b) crazy overconfidence-building win over 'Bama. Still, we're better than they are, and we're at home, and we have good coaches, and I'm predicting ecellent senior leadership from 133. Percentage chance of winning: 80%.

3) UMass. Only thing I have to say about UMass is I can't believe Camby is still in the league and, if I'm not mistaken, starting. 98%.

4) @ND. Yeesh. Despite Brian's disdain for intangibles, they do matter. A ton. Hunger, motivation, rage, home field, ND has them all going for them in this game. This will be their best win all year, like Sparty was for them this year, since the rest of the time they'll be fighting each other and putting DavieOLearyTyCharlieBrian or whoever it is now on the usual hotseat. I'm thinking this is almost as tough as the Bama game, for different reasons. 34%.

5) @Purdue. It's tough to win on the road in the Big Ten. But playing in West Lafayette helps. 75%.

6) Come on Feel the Illinoise. Homecoming. No Mercilus. 90%.

7) Sparty. Egad. We never should have let little brother get this good. This game is for the division, and it will be for the foreseeable future. That stinks for us because right now we are the entire focus of Sparty's season/pathetic lives. I for one hope the MSU-Wiscy rivalry takes off in a huge way so that they will have someone else to bother. Anyway, I think we win this because we're at home, we're hungry, and the talent/skill/execution levels are close enough that the mental stuff matters. 60%.

8) @Nebraska. I predicted Nebraska wouldn't win the B1G like a lot of folks thought and would in fact have at least two losses. Just like when PSU entered and had trouble. People underestimate the B1G for a lot of reasons. Nebraska will be better next year, but they'll still lose at least twice (they play in East Lansing and Columbus). We might be another loss for them, but it's a tough time to go to Lincoln after playing MSU the week before. 55%.

9) @Mini. They'll be better, but jug security is always at a premium. 90%.

10) NW. Gonna be a tough year for the Cats. 85%.

11) Iowa. We owe them, they'll be down again with too little talent on D for even Ferentz to coach up, and Ferentz will be in hot water at this point in the year. 90%.

12) @OSU. Urbie is going to underestimate the B1G just like Paterno and Pelini. That said, he has more talent on the roster than either PSU or UNL when they entered, and the team is going to make a statement after a 7-loss year. Doesn't matter that this is their bowl game because they couldn't be more hyped up than they are anyway for us. Considering: home field, Urbie's first year, no Tebow or Alex Smith but Braxton could be quite good next year, our D-line should be coached up and solid by then barring injuries, if we beat MSU we'll have a shot at the Legends title, OSU can enter the offseason in a season that doesn't count anyway if they lose, Urbie hates to lose and is a very good coach, Hoke the same but he's not a slimeball, well... this one's a toss-up. 50%.

So if I didn't hit any buttons wrong on the calculator, that's about a 0.6% chance of going undefeated (pre-B1G CG and bowls) next year.

On the bright side, I think our three toughest games are outside the Legends division (Bama, ND, OSU). And if we win the Legends (basically the little brother game), we've got a super chance at the B1G championship because are you kdding me, have you looked at the Leaders next year? PSU will still be melting down. OSU can't make the title game (HA HA /Nelson voice). Illinois, please, any team that keeps Zook for seven years deserves at least half that many more years of shame, scorn, and suckage. That leaves Wiscy. In fact, they really shouldn't even play the Leaders games next year as there is no way that Wiscy will not be representing the division in the championship game. They're going to be a shadow of this year's team, too, and either the Spartans or we will crush them.

 

 

Am I seeing this right?  Not a single MAC school for the first time since 1999?  That actually used to be the norm as we went 50 straight seasons without playing any team from that conference before it became some unwritten law.  I like the addition of Air Force.  It's a new face and a respectable opponent. 

But that road schedule?  Not looking forward to that at all.  And I am especially not looking forward to playing Bama where Nick Saban can just oversign players to his heart's content.  Columbus with the world's worst fans, first game at Lincoln and no matter how crappy Notre Dame is, South Bend is like the twighlight zone where the worst possible thing can happen at the worst possible time.  God, that road schedule scares me to death.  

Two home games I'm looking forward to, MSU goes without saying.  But I really hope we beat the sh*t out of Iowa.  Not just because of the crappy calls the refs let them get away with this year but the fact that their last 2 sucky ass teams played so well against us.  I'd love it if we could hang 60 on those bastards.  

a gauntlet. But I love your optimism! Go Blue!!

'Bama, Nebraska and Ohio.  We still go to the B1G Championship game and win.  I already have my hotel reserved for 01JAN13.  Im not a superstitious person so predictions do not bother me.

I see several close games @ ND, MSU, @ NE, @ OSU. I see us splitting these and finishing 9-3. May be a shot at a B1G title! I would like to beat MSU and OSU! I'll also predict our D improves through the season, after a shaky start! O should be fine!

I think playing Bama first will really help the team and will get their attention real quick.

As long as Michigan doesn't set Bama up with good field position Michigan will be in the game, I don't see Bama scoring a lot of points.

Isn't Air Force the team that cut blocks all the time?? I don't like this game.

They will be in the thick of it regardless of the Bama game.

If you want to figure out where the pitfalls are for Michigan next season, just go through the rosters of our opponents and find the teams with tall, athletics receivers and quarterbacks who can deliver them the ball.  Those were the teams that gave Michigan trouble this year and the secondary is pretty much returning intact.

I, for one, am happy to see guys like Floyd, Cunningham, McNutt, and Posey graduating.

Of course, my comment above assumes the run defense doesn't miss a beat despite losing Martin and VanBergen, which is probably a ridiculous assumption, but in Mattison I Trust.

 

Alabama - L 

Air Force - W 

Mass - W

@ND - (Tough call)

@Purdue - W

Illinois - W

MSU - (Tough call)

@Neb - W 

@Minny - W

NW - W

Iowa - W

@OSU - (Tough call)

 

So likely between 8-4 and 10-2. I think Alabama is a likely loss, Notre Dame may just beat us one of these years, I can't pencil in MSU as a W until we get Paul back for good, Nebraska is a very winnable game, in my opinion - not impressed with Martinez, and "The Game" is "The Game."

Bottom line - beat MSU and we probably control our own destiny for Pasadena.