MGo-Optimism: Team 134 Expectations...are yours still the same?
I know our team has looked shaky at best during the first third of the season, but for some reason the last month has felt like we’re on one of those 2008-2010 losing streaks. What if this is the low point of our season? Maybe I’m the only one that thinks about this, but if so, then what exactly does us passing our low point mean? Does it mean we only lose 1 or 2 games the rest of the way? Does it mean we win the Big Ten, but will our early struggles discredit any damage we do inside of our conference? How about if we find ourselves in the National Championship picture? I still think it’s possible. We have players at every position but for some reason it just hasn’t clicked. What if it’s about to click starting in a few hours? Just question for the board…what are your realistic expectations after the first third?
October 5th, 2013 at 11:10 AM ^
I expected 10-2 with losses to MSU and Northwestern. After 4 games, I expect they will be 10-2 with losses to MSU and Northwestern.
The tossup games:
PSU -- Freshman quarterback
Nebraska -- No defense and they struggle away from home
MSU -- The defense will eat our interior line alive, especially in East Lansing
Northwestern -- Unstoppable throw god
Ohio -- We outplayed them in the first half in their house. We can put together a full game this year in ours.
October 5th, 2013 at 11:10 AM ^
I think we probably will end up losing about 3-4 games. Our O-Line isn't going to magically improve by a position switch. Our WR's still lack a true deep threat. Gallon is great, Dileo is sure-handed (when actually thrown to) but Chesson is still young and raw. We lack a true deep threat to spread the Defense out. So far we can't seem to get any production from our RB's. We have to blitz or stunt in order to get any pressure on opposing QB's, since our 4 man rush doesn't create any pressure on it's own. I'd say my optimism is WAY down from after the ND game.
Having said all that, I'm still cheering my heart out for the team, but I've lowered my expectations. (While singing 'Lowered Expectations' MAD TV skit in my head)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxL1uXwSrdU
October 5th, 2013 at 11:18 AM ^
My default expectation is always 9-3. Anything more is "bonus points" and anything less is disappointing.
We can complain all we want about margins of victory and close games, but 4-0 is 4-0. If Devin Gardner makes it out of the MSU game without being injured, which is difficult since Sparty's first goal is always to injure Michigan's QB, this could be a great season.
I still want to see undefeated Ohio lose a rematch to Michigan in the Big Ten Championship game, knocking them out of the title game and sowing the seeds of doubt in Columbus. Michigan has played up and down to their competition this year. That usually results in at least one "bad" loss. Hopefully, they start a curve of improvement this week.
October 5th, 2013 at 1:33 PM ^
If you're going to have expectations, you've got to aim high. My default is 10-2. One penance-inducing loss caused by your own failures and one tip-your-hat loss where the other team just plays a better game.
Seems possible that this year the penance-inducing loss is past us, in the form of Akron/UConn. Hard to say for sure. But the tip-your-hat loss is definitely still ahead.
October 5th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^
October 5th, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
My expectations are tempered, but I am still optimistic (as always). The only thing that drives me crazy is that I get nervous during every offensive play because I have a nagging feeling that Devin is going to do something stupid. I never felt that way with Denard at QB, by the way.
Conversely, I have the utmost confidence in the defense.
October 5th, 2013 at 12:32 PM ^
I like to beat Ohio and MSU. Those make a successful season for me. I expect 6 wins and a bowl game every year.
The opening games, good or bad, give the team some time to work on things. I think we demonstrated good upside against ND. I think we showed what our downside can be against Akron and Uconn especially what happened in the turnover department but the team did what they had to do to win the games.
Plenty of season left to look at highlights, lowlights, and some scrapes with good and bad luck.
What I like is that Hoke & Co have raised expectations at least from my viewpoint. I think they are pursuing top talent and obviously some of that works better than others, but I feel like they've shifted the mean (average). Its still a work in progress, but the inertia of developing and recruiting players...if we can continue on the current trajectory...is going to blossom. When that is I can't say for sure, but I'll be there/here 8-)
October 5th, 2013 at 1:51 PM ^
Haven't changed my overall prediction. I'm less confident in it, though. But I still think the most likely outcome is two regular season losses. We'll lose to one of Ohio, NW, and MSU, with a 66% chance of an additional loss to one of those three, PSU or Nebraska.
Another way to put it: I think that if we play this season three times, once out of those three times we come through 4-1 against Ohio, @NW, @MSU, @PSU, Neb, while the other two times we go 3-2 over that stretch. There are some good teams there, but honestly Nebraska is not looking too scary at all with that defense and in our house (and coming off a lost to them last year); MSU's defense may keep them in games but their offense will keep their opponents in games, so they're not looking too scary either; and PSU is not looking as strong as I thought they might. That leaves NW and Ohio - who do still scare me.
UConn and Akron games are us playing down mentally, I think. Could be wrong, but gun to my head I'm sticking with what I said before.
October 5th, 2013 at 2:55 PM ^
Minnesota: W
Penn state: W
Indiana: W
Iowa: W
(I think these are all almost guaranteed wins)
that gets us 8 wins.
If you are picking 8-4, it means every other game is a loss.
I say likely is a split among: N'western, Nebraska, MSU, OSU.
That means: 10-2.
11-1 not a crazy pick.
12-0 means we get lucky somewhere along the line,
and have to play OSU for all the marbles.
October 5th, 2013 at 4:41 PM ^