MBB recruiting vs. rivals
Our squad is very young and we did sign a huge class last year. I believe that Wilson and Chatman were top 100 players and MAAR, Dawkins and Doyle were more of the 3 star sleeper types. Last year's class looks like they will be solid and appears to mesh well with our system to far. My concern is, how long can we continue to recruit at a lower level than our rivals and stay competitive with them? I'm of the opinion that we need to kick it up a notch in recruiting and I have a growing concern when looking at us strike out on nearly all the blue-chips last year and this year as well. We seem to be slipping on 2016 guys like Thornton and consistently get beaten out by the big dogs in college basketball for the big fish. Michigan is a top flight school with amazing facilities and a top flight staff. Michigan has sent 5 to the NBA in the past 2 years alone with 4 being 1st rounders. Michigan has rich championship basketball tradition. So why does it seem to be such a struggle in terms of basketball recruiting? What is this staff missing on the trails?
Michigan State has Austin Grandstaff who is a 4 star...Kyle Ahrens...who we recruited and a McDonald's All American in Deyonta comings in 2015. They are also fairly young and will lose only Trice and Dawson this year. Ohio State has 4 four stars and a 5 Star wing comitted in their 2015 class alone. They will likely suffer a lot of attrition with Russell leaving early and seniors departing but still will have Tate and Bates-Diop plus this huge class. Our 2015 class is barren at the moment unless you're including the D. Robinson transfer.
There is no real excuse or reason why we do not have at least one blue chip recruit for the 2015 cycle. You cannot completely whiff on a year of recruiting as we have essentially done thus far. Basketball fortune can swing very quickly and in order to sustain the high level of play that we have enjoyed, you have to crush recruiting every year. There are no fliers to miss a year of recruits. I'm wondering if there is an issue with our staff's ability to get the blue chips. Is everyone else dirty? I think there is a legitimate concern here and it one that I think we should discuss. I don't buy the narrative that Michigan just can't recruit with the big dogs. We aren't recruiting hard enough or well enough to do it. Other smallet schools still pull blue chips annually. We should be boxing other programs out and eating first in recruiting. We shouldn't be taking a backseat to these other programs. How do we fix this?
January 30th, 2015 at 12:11 PM ^
I like all the guys they got, honestly I do, but 2014 was a massive failure on the recruiting front.
The team needed immediate help and the one highly-ranked guy they landed was obviously very raw. (Yes, obviously, and I said so before he hit campus.) The rest of the recruits were mid-major caliber recruits, and in some cases that is being very generous.
It wasn't due to a lack of effort on this staff's part it was due to a lack of execution. They whiffed on all of their Plan A list, most of their Plan B list, and even most of the Plan C list and were left scrambling near the end of the recruiting cycle to fill spots.
2015 is les sof problem than 2014 because the available scholarships are minimal (2 probably, 3 at best). They are electing to use one spot for Robinson, which is a risky move in assuming his game will translate from D3. At least we know he can shoot but we dont know if he can do anything else. The other spot...well now it looks like they are sniffing around at 3 star types again. If we whiff on two straight classes then everything falls on 2016.
Nobody should panic yet. JB is still JB and we are lucky to have him. But this concern about recruiting is getting real.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
2014 recruiting class was on the floor last Saturday night for most of the game when we took the #5 team in the country to overtime. Dawkins hasn't shot a 3 that has hit the rim in like 2 weeks and Rawkman looks like a really good finisher. I think "massive failure" may be a little but unnecessarily dire at this point.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^
But you're coming off consecutive Elite 8s and didn't land a single NBA-caliber recruit. Dawkins is the only guy that looks like he has the potential (as a 3&D guy his ceiling is probably late 1st round). Chatman could get there if he gets his head right, but he has a looooong way to go. We still don't know about Wilson but he wasn't heavily pursued by any bigtime programs (and yeah, you can say the same about Burke and LeVert but also McLimans and Vogrich).
January 30th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^
We are basing lots of this on 20-ish games. What Michigan doesn't seem to have is any kid who'll be 1-and-done, which happens from time to time.
January 30th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
We are basing it on their recruiting profile, scouting reports, and offers too. It's true that no one knew that Trey Burke would blow up the way he did, but with literally everybody else it was clear by their freshman year if they had NBA potential or not.
Caris LeVert showed up on campus and, despite being red-shirted, right away the practice reports were all about what an athlete this kid is and how he can really play and is already the best defender on the team and so on. He was just young...
As compared to MAAR and Dawkins who are post-grad types who are older. They are much closer to the Spike/Stu/Novak track. Again, they could be very good college players. Morgan and Horford took years to develop into what they became. But they aren't why we went to the final 4 and played at a Kentucky level.
There seems to be a false dichotomy between one-and-dones and other. There is a whole range in between. Most of the NBA-caliber players Michigan has been getting are 2 and done or 3 and done or even 4-year guys who take longer to develop. Other than Chatman, all the 2014 guys are clearly 4-year college players. [At least the one's we've seen. Wilson could get there.]
January 30th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
i believe he is referring to landing some obvious studs from day 1. booker or blackman would look pretty good right now.
honestly, though, i was really surprised at the lack of interest in dawkins and maar, even before they stepped on campus. dawkins is an athletic freak with a decent looking shot. and maar was all state all 4 years in PA, iirc, and he's 6'4" slasher.
but, ya, they both will probably declare for the nba after next year.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:53 PM ^
I never got the Dawkins thing. Great athlete who can shoot. I think a lot of high level programs looked at his limitations. The guy's dribbling is shockingly bad for a coach's son. Still, it's surprising no one saw him as a 3&D guy who can help right away.
MAAR is a nice complementary player, but he's the same age as Caris. His ceiling is pretty limited unless he learns to be a knock-down shooter. We'll see.
January 30th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 10:30 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
guess it does beg the question, why? Does he back off for some reason? Is there a particular trait in a player that he guarding against? And from their perspective, is it something about the school that they don't like? Are they scared of being complete "system" players? Michigan basketball has been really "in" the past couple of years. If he is going after them, I wonder what the reason is that "they" are not responding.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^
I don't know why people can't just accept the obvious -- sometimes you lose in recruiting.
Beilein consistently recruits people that people think don't fit his "system". He recruited Sim Bhullar and maybe going after a "i'm not saying he's fat but..." giant center again in '15. He recruits slashers that can't shoot. He recruits high flyers. He recruits everybody from Spike Albrecht to Kevin Looney, so what exactly is this 'system' mean when it comes to recruiting.
Beilein wants good players -- just like any other coach. What makes him great is that he coaches to suit the talent he has wether it's Morris, Burke, Nik, Manny, McGary, or Zak.
January 30th, 2015 at 4:09 PM ^
you are misunderstanding my question and/or what I am getting at. If Beilein is going hard after all these guys, and not landing any of them, why is that? Of course sometimes you lose the recruiting battle, but it sounds as if we are losing ALL of the recruiting battles, aka, we are really not in the fight at all. We are "in over our heads," essentially. With the recent success of Michigan basketball and the upgraded facilities, why would that be?
January 30th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
I don't think anyone has a clear answer on this stuff. I think part of it is proven NBA production. I think part of it, for big guys at least, is role.
But ultimately, it probably boils down to a string of bad luck and just-misses...or so I can hope. 2016 is huge.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
Beilein very actively recruits top 20 recruits. He just doesn't land them.
January 30th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
We have recruited many of the highly rated guys that went to OSU, MSU, Kentucky, Duke, etc. We just aren't getting enough of them to commit, plain and simple. Just because we didn't offer James Young for that reason does not mean we didn't recruit a dozen other highly rated guys and miss.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
i really don't think they land that many top 20 players; at least not anywhere close to KY, duke, UNC, Kansas, AZ or even OSU. i bet those schools get over half of the top 20 players every year.
January 30th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
If we land these guys along with John Teske, we will be just fine. The problem is that we seen this movie play out before. We lead for 5 star wings seemingly every year and then get edged out by another big dog for their services. If Beilien gets top flight talent...he wins championships. The 2013 run was no fluke. Mitch and GR3 were 4/5 Stars. Nik was a 4 star. Trey and TIm were obviously underrated and highly talented. I just dont see our recruiting following the standard that was set in the previous years. You can only take so many recruiitng risks and talent is at a premium. I guess we will see soon enough. If we don't land at least one of the afformentioned 5 star wings and Cassius....i think it's safe to say that we have a legitimate problem.
January 30th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
I'd tend to agree. I bet UM whiffs on Battle (Duke) and Langford (Duke or MSU) and nabs Winston.
January 30th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
We cannot whiff on wings in this offense. We develop guys too well and too early. Assuming that all of our guys will stay through their Senior year is just plain silly. If we do not grab stud wings in the next two classes, we will be hurting big time.
January 30th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
But oftentimes it isn't because Beilein did anything wrong. We look at kids who flip to Michigan football and sometimes forget that Michigan is an elite name in CFB, and the teams they flip from aren't and that's sometimes just what happens. For all of UM's recent BBall success, Duke, Arizona, Kentucky, UNC, Kansas, etc. are the blue bloods of the sport, and when they call top-flight kids will listen. I'm honestly not sure how much Beilein can do with some kids who are being courted by everyone, and for others you do tend to lose more recruits than you land, even at the elite programs.
Yes, Michigan needs elite wings. But if they don't get them, so be it.
January 30th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
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January 30th, 2015 at 10:36 AM ^
I think one frustration is that while the last couple of classes have been good on paper they haven't shown it yet on the Court. I believe that Irvin was a 5-star to some, and he can play, but isn't what we'd hoped he'd be yet. Walton was on his way to being very good this year until the toe injury. Donnel, Chatman and Wilson were, I believe, 4 stars recuits who so far don't look like it. Chatman looks as if he'll need a lot time to develop. Wilson we'll know more about next year and I have no idea what, if anything, to expect from Donnal. Doyle, MAAR, and Dawkins -- none of them big name recruits -- are poised to be important pieces going forward.
I am suprised that we'll struggled on the PG recruiting front. Walton has at most two years, and if he blows up could leave after 3 (I hope not but it's possible). I hope Winston or Thornton (if he's still a possibilty) come through.
Matta's a strange case. For a football school to recruit like that in basketball is bizarre.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
nailed it with the Walton injury. He showed some flashes against Villanova where I just shook my head. There was one baseline pull back fadeaway that looked like Chauncy Billups. I thought he was really going to break out after that. Really bad time for that injury.
January 30th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
We do need to upgrade athleticism IMO. Some of these games (OSU) stands out, most of our guys save a Dawkins and Caris just are not that upper echelon athlete. I think we all agree we need more studs out there and we all feel Beilein deserves it. It's been a bit confusing but like many have said bball is different than fball - relationships start much earlier and the recent huge success is very new (2-3 years) versus OSU been doing well for a long time, MSU etc.
Beilein's system is not set up for 1 and dones. And I think most 1 and dones arent too focused on academics - they just want a pit stop before the NBA. Duke I guess is the 1 exception to that (and North Carolina but NC doesnt have a lot of 1 and dones lately either). So it seems our sweet spot is guys maybe in the #30 to #75 area of the board; guys who have NBA prospects but understand it's going to be most likely 2 years if not 3.
On the opposite side of the argument here is we are finally going to have a team full of upperclassmen in 2016-2017. UM basketball has been lacking that for 3+ years now. If you plug in 1-2 superstar frosh into an experienced 2016-2017 team with JRs/SRs like Dawkins, MAAR, Doyle, Chatman (I guess), etc it can be a team a lot like Maryland is this year where Melo leads a veteran cast.
But we rehash this stuff every week it seems. Beilein is just not a guy who seems to be the type of selling "the dream" like most coaches. He probably goes in and talks about values, committment, academics, development and all that and a lot of these upper echelon guys would rather hear a Thad Matta sales pitch.
Sidenote - Izzo got fortunate with Davis, it was a lot like GR3 in that when he was initially committed he was a moderately rated player who absolutely blew up in the past year, so it wasnt like he was a 5 star with UK, Kansas, Duke after for a year or two. But yes that sort of athleticism Davis brings to the 4 is going to be an issue - we need something to match that. I'd just like to see 1-2 players more on the roster every year who play above the rim.
January 30th, 2015 at 1:51 PM ^
But Michigan is just as well set up for one-and-dones as anywhere else. If/when Caris goes pro, the team is PERFECTLY situation to take on somebody like Jaylon Brown for one year.
There is a lack of athleticism and if you put Brown into a Lebron James like role, surround him with shooters (Robinson, Irvin, Dawkins) give him a complementary ball-handler and option B type (Walton) plus some big men who can be physical rebounders/defenders (Doyle, Wilson) and it's a perfect situation for everybody involved.
The academics argument is garbage IMO. Duke, UNC, Florida, Georgetown, USC, UCLA, even OSU are legitimate academic instituations.
As for the 2-years out thing...it's always the same story. What attrition are you assuming?... None? FAIL.
This team has equivalent experience, maybe less, than the 2012-13 team. Was that team too young? Did we have to wait 2 years then...because here we are!
Beilein just has to excute on the recruiting trail. It's that simple. He can turn 3-star caliber talent into a Big 10 contending team with one or two NBA caliber players... but give him a lineup full of NBA players and he'll take you to the Final 4. It's about if you want your team's ceiling to be sweet 16 or a national title.
January 30th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
Beilein's system isn't set up for 1 and dones
No, apparently it is set up for 2 and dones :)
January 30th, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
My rebuttle would be that UK, Duke, Arizona, and UNC do the same shit with regards to sending players to the NBA year in and year out and they're fine, why can't we?
Then again, Michigan is not a blue-chip basketball school anymore due to our almost 2 decade hiatus after the Fab Five scandal.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 1:55 PM ^
You're going to blame the Fab 5...still?
How about we blame Ellerbe, who was a terrible coach. Amaker laid the foundation and did a pretty good job here, but he is a bigger part of why Michigan doesn't recruit 5-stars right now than Chris Webber. and of course, Beilein is responsible for not parlaying the recent success onto the recruiting field.
January 30th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
with much of what you say. Expectations were largely unrealistic. I am not pessimistic about the players we have. Save Caris though, they are almost all complementary players. For alot of reasons, we aren't likely to pull in 3-4 top 30 players in a year. But we do need to get one most years, plus another top 50 player. That bar shouldn't be insurmountable.
January 30th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
We only have 1 senior coming off our scholarship number next year (Beilfeldt). Meaning that we literally will only have one scholarship position open if Caris doesn’t go to the NBA or if there is no other attrition. On top of that there are some real studs that the staff likes in 2016 (Cassius Winston, Jaylen Brown, Josh Langford, Derryck Thorton, Seth Towns, etc). If there is no attrition, then that only leaves us 2 open spots for 2016 (teske is fulfilling one). If we just take a 2015 guy to take one then that means that we only have 1 spot for an additional stud 2016 member. They staff is looking into Levi Cook for 2015, but they are only going to use a scholarship if they really like the guy and he fills an area of need. They aren’t going to use their only scholarship just to get numbers. Oh on top of that DJ Wilson looks like he is going to get a redshirt this year. That means that he will be a freshman next year. He was a 4 star recruit, so you have you 4 star freshman next year. He will just be a redshirt freshman.
I'm not sure why people question Beilien's recruiting. Has he not proven that he knows how to build a winner? Has he not shown that he has a knack for talent that traditional recruiting services/other coaches don't pick up on or don't pick up on until it is too late?
January 30th, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^
when I was freaking out about the 2014 OL.
NO YOU CALM DOWN!
In the best case scenario we will be good. (always the case). In the worst case scenario we are all dead. (always the case) In the most likely scenario, somewhere in between, Michigan has serious questions.
There were "studs that the staff likes" in 2014 and 2015 too -- they didn't get them. And that's why people are starting to worry.
Recruiting matters and pays immediate dividends. Beilein killed it in recruiting in 2012 and 2013 and it paid immediate dividends. Beilein struggled badly with recruiting in 2014 and here we are.
January 30th, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^
and there is willfully ignoring the writing on the wall.
...we are not in trouble yet but there is cause for concern
January 30th, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^
before giving up on Beilein being able to bring many elite recruits in here. But, I do think he does everything the right way including emphasizing academics, team chemistry, teamwork, and the like. That probably scares away a lot of kids who are told other things by the competition. I'm pretty sure Beilein is not making overblown or even lofty promises to recruits, whereas other programs almost certainly are. Unless he starts to play that game, most likely, he'll continue to miss on many of these 5* targets. I'm hoping there are some kids out there who take a much more long-term and level-headed approach and who won't get sucked into the hype being thrown at them elsewhere. Those are the kind of players we'll appeal to.
January 30th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
he we are having an awful season, yet we a currently tied for second in the BIG. how times have changed. now, i know we won't finish that high. if we get to 9-9 in the BIG, it will be one helluva coaching job by JB. and the team will be better next year.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
In Beilein we trust.
Tatgate.
Let the Buckeyes be nuts.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
Beilein runs an offense that requires a lot of understanding. It would seem that continuity would be very important for him. Once that is established, you can mix in the top end recruits to take the team to the next level. Over time the continuity players get better and better.
The fact is that Beilein hasn't really had great continuity. Stu and Zack were a good start and showed what can happen when Beilein has four year players, but they were limited athletically. Morgan was of the same mold and his knowledge of the system greatly helped as he could be a floor leader. However, those are only three major contributors from the continuity players that I can think of. I think we should look at Brundidge and Christian as misses just as much as Booker and Blackmon. They would be seniors now.
I would imagine that as our core gets stronger the team/program will take off. With that comes a greater ability to grab the top-end talent. Imagine if Walton and Irvin stay four years. That is going to be a very deep and talented roster. Sprinkle in one to two supers and you have a title contender.
Fortunately we have a coach who can get to the title by developing the good into the great negating the need to constantly grab the great.
January 30th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
We also only have 1 scholarship spot open next year anyway. 2 if Caris leaves for the draft.
January 30th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
MSU, OSU, IND, DUKE, or UK. And this is fine with me. JB is as good a coach as Ryan and he can recruit a little better than him, we will be fine. I think a good 3* who has been in the system for 4 years is far better than 4 or 5 star player as far JB is concerned. And I am fine with it.
January 30th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
MSU, OSU, IND, DUKE, or UK. And this is fine with me. JB is as good a coach as Ryan and he can recruit a little better than him, we will be fine. I think a good 3* who has been in the system for 4 years is far better than 4 or 5 star player as far JB is concerned. And I am fine with it.
January 30th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
I understand Frank was not highly recruited coming out of high school. Even during his first couple years at UW he was considered an off-the-bench role player. Look at him now, after three years and the kind of top-level coaching Darth Sidious and his staff provided: Frank's a leading candidate for POY honors.
Ya just never, never know. And I'd look out for A Dawkins and M-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. In the next two years those two could look like they must have been McDonald's AAs out of high school.
January 30th, 2015 at 2:36 PM ^
They both look to be under-rated and under-recruited players. But they both have holes in their game. Hyperbole--like McDonald's All-American level-- needs to be kept in check. I see 4 year--Wisconsin type--players. And that can be good.
January 30th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
January 30th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^
Michigan has a pretty rich basketball tradition. It did fall apart under Ellerbe-Amaker but that's a historical blip - one that Michigan has recovered from fully. Michigan's respect should not be questioned. We have something special in the Fab 5 and the '89 championship team. So while UM isn't Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, UCLA, UNC or Indiana - they can/should be in the next tier beside OSU, Florida, Arizona, MSU, UConn, Georgetown.
The only thing Michigan needs now is for some of our NBA players to have success. Once that happens there is no excuse for another class like 2014 (and 2015)