MBB: ORtg Post-Levert
Okay, so I put together a quick little chart of everyones Offensive Rating (kenpom) since the Levert injury. Some games some players did not register enough PT to create an ORtg, so those are marked by the dashes. I included those games in their average still, because they did play. So the average my not be 100% accurate, but you get the gist of it.
February 20th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^
Irvin and Chatman's numbers are disconcerting. Irvin REALLY needs to stay for another year. Things just aren't clicking for him right now.
Also, I would have thought that MAAR had beetter numbers than Dawkins. Guess that's recency bias.
All in all, it's good to see that 2 of our top 3 weapons are freshmen.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
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February 20th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^
Irvin at this point is an above average college player lacking NBA speed, or athleticism. Some guys said that this off season and got downvoted to oblivion. He has 1 really good skill and thats shooting. Which is a valued skill in the NBA. But he doesnt have the ability to create his own shot so you see what happened to Nik. Nik is a better shooter - but Nik is having trouble creating his own shot with the level of athleticism in the NBA. And Nik actually has a game in the lane and ability to drive at the NCAA level. Something Irvin is just now beginning to develop - slowly.
People overvalue our guys - I get that. Same with Walton- unless your POY type like Burke or I. Thomas, its difficult to get drafted early as a 6'0 PG. Napier was a ridculously great player and didnt get drafted early - same size as Walton. Here are Napier's JR year stats:
- 37.3 MPG
- 44% FG
- 40% 3 PT FG
- 17.1 PPG
- 82% FT
- 4.6 Assists
- 4,4 Rebounds
That is elite at the NCAA level. And we saw how special he was in the NCAA tourney - he was Burke like special. But he was "6'1". He didnt leave early. At 6'4 he probably would have. Walton is not near those #s and has the same height issues.
I expect both these guys to finish their full eligibility at UM and it will be a good thing for us.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
I can't see either Irvin or Walton leaving early. At the beginning of this season, it looked as though Irvin could be an early entry NBA guy but I think it turned out that he was shooting the ball at a level that he could not sustain. To me, Irvin has serious problems with his release. His release is non-traditional, but at times it looks outright awkard and really technically unsound. I actually notice this at home for some reason more so than on the road. His shot looked so bad against Michigan State I could not believe it. He also has almost no ability to shoot of the dribble due to how low he bring the ball from, any edge he can get off of a first step is immediately nullified by how long it actually takes for his jumper to develop. That is why he gets seemingly open shots blocked also.
If Walton can get healthy, I think he could be an All-American by his senior year. Against Villanova specifically in the second half, pre-injury, he had a couple of moves and a step-back- base-line that had me doing double takes. He reminds me at times of Jason Williams(Jay-the Duke one), although he is much less consistent from deep and not as seasoned of a finisher. I think the loss of Walton at full strength was every bit the equal of the loss of Levert this year(who I think will return also).
February 20th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
Agreed about Walton. Early in the season (pre-injury) it looked like he made a huge leap forward from last year. When he gets healthy, he is going to be a real force on this team.
February 20th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^
I have been off the Irvin bandwagon for awhile. Can't add anything to your summary. But I will say this, he is a perfect Beilin system guy and he will be an important part of this team all 4 years. He could be a "REALLY" important guy if we had a PG who could create and score off the drive and an athletic big.
That would leave him alone on the wing to do what he does best.
Walton is not the guy to breakdown a D. I know this year he is hurt, but he has never shown an abililty to penetrate and finish. He is a solid PG.
February 20th, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
He showed a surprising ability to penetrate and finish in numerous clutch situations last year. He doesn't finish all the time but he should get more crafty with time. I think he will become just the guy to break down a defense, and I think he actually was a little more so than you think this year before he went down. It has only taken me a few weeks of seeing Michigan without Walton to know how much of an engine he actually was.
February 20th, 2015 at 8:28 PM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
Yes. Coming into the year a LOT of people though Irvin was gone after this year and MANY (not as many as Irvin) though Walton was gone. Because people now extrapolate Caris Levert and Nik S to every single of our players. "Beilein bump" It's not reality. Nik is a special shooter and Caris has NBA athleticism and ability to create his own shot. And both have decent length. You can still have a big bump and be a damn good player but not make the NBA. I tend to think Irvin is going to be a very good NCAA player and should be a beast as a senior. We havent had a guy actual stick around for 4 years who was a legit "potential NBA player" in a long time. Irvin and Walton could be 2. It will be nice to be like MSU in this regard where everyone sticks around their entire career and we actually have stud upperclassmen down the road.
But to answer your question - this is a Michigan blog and Michigan people tend to go overboard over Michigan players. We are seeing it right now with DJ Wilson who if I read other threads correctly is a UK type big man who next year will solve all our inside problems. Not reality.
February 20th, 2015 at 3:06 PM ^
I get that people expected Irvin to follow in the steps of Stauskas, Burke, and (apparently) Caris and jump early, but I agree he never struck me as a better-than-NCAA player after watching him last year. He's a good player, but he is a 1-tool player, and that 1 tool isn't transcendent the way you see with young guys (Reddick was the guy that first jumped out to me) that they can rely on while the other skills improve. I mean, his career-high in assists is 3, which is insane given how much offense he's been involved in this year.
But then again, I'm not sure Caris is ready for the NBA this year either. I know SGs are at a premium in the pros, but Caris seems just too damn young and physically limited to stick in the NBA right now. I know that he's a late bloomer physically and so physical deficiencies can be rectified quickly, but he never struck me as a great finisher near the rim and his man-to-man defense against physical guards is underwhelming. Also, I wonder a bit about his speed given his height, but his length should help on that front if/when he's asked to defend PGs. I've also read a couple of draft reports that tout his jumper, and sure it's reliable enough, but as a potential lottery pick it seems a bit too inconsistent for me. Of course, that might be a UM fan in me talking, but he feels like another guy who should play another year in college and fill out before making the jump. But that won't happen.
I agree it would be great to have some older, NCAA+ players on the roster. My guess is that if anyone leaves early it will be Walton, though if MAAR keeps improving at the rate we've seen I could see him getting some buzz next year.
February 20th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^
got off to a blazing fast start this year and showed up on some first round big boards. He was still a one trick pony, but he wasn't missing(remember the awesome hand-phone thing he was doing). I think people began to think, sure he can only do that thing, but if he can do it that well than he could be an NBA guy right now. He came back down to earth rather quickly and his limitations became very visible very fast.
I share your view of Caris, and in fact, I don't understand why he is viewed as a slam dunk first rounder. He is athletic but he is not an explosive finisher, I don't think his basketball IQ is anywhere near what Stauskus or even GR III had, and I have found him to be an inconsistent shooter(statistically he is very good from deep but I have never thought of him as a pure shooter). We seem to be in the overwhelming mniorty however so I have kind of come to the conclusion that I just may be flat out wrong. I just don't see it.
February 20th, 2015 at 5:19 PM ^
Another guy who struggled when he tried to be more than he was capable of being. By junior year he learned to play to his strengths but rounded out his game from being just a shooter.
THJ was/is a better athlete and leaper, but Irvin is bigger and stronger.
I expect Irvin to return, have a great season, and declare for the '16 draft. a la THJ
February 20th, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 10:17 AM ^
Dakich? Not a dark enough shade of red?
February 20th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
Not being sarcastic here - I dont think he has scored in Big 10 play. I could be wrong. If so I'd be surprised if he had more than 2 pts.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^
He has not scored. And the only game he registered an ORtg was @MSU, and that rating was still zero.
February 20th, 2015 at 11:07 AM ^
less Dakich. I don't care that Irvin's handle isn't great. Our PGs have been dominating possession anyway so we don't really need a strong second ballhandler when Spike or MAAR get in foul trouble.
Donnal's splits are bizarre. He's either solidly green or gets a DNP.
February 21st, 2015 at 12:30 AM ^
Why Donnal gets the DNPs are not based on ORtg. Not that bizarre.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
give 1/2 point for his feed to Dawkins for the posterization, that was a nifty pass.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
February 20th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
Part of the issue with using this to judge players is context. Even with our initial expectations we were hoping Irvin would be a strong #3 option for this team and gradually develop his offensive game. Now he's the #1 guy drawing the most attention from the opponent. The best evidence of this was the Izzo meltdown at the end of the game (when they were essentially in control). He was furious that Dawson, who is perhaps the best defensive player in the league and assigned to shut down Irvin, gambled on a passing lane and gave up an open three - which Irvin drained.
Teams can plan around Irvin and that makes it even harder for him to develop, while still acknowledging that he has a long way to go. I think he has shown definite signs of progress with his handle, his willingness and ability to drive, and even his occassional pump fake. I think he still needs to improve in many areas and I swear he's either missed or had his layups/dunks blocked about 15 times in conference play alone. Those are free points that he should have. How good would 30 extra points look considering our three OT losses and last possession loss to Indiana?
As much as this team misses Levert and how wonderful of a talent he is, I think we over-rate him as well. I think he is still struggling to find his role as alpha-dog on this team. He's never been a good pick-and-roll player and he has also had to deal with getting the opponent game-planning against him. His shot selection and inability to get all the way to the hoop or set up teammates when he drives were limiting the team when he was healthy.
All of that being said, we'll be fine next year with the guard/wing position with natural progression from Walton, Irvin, MAAR, Dawkins, and Spike (and hopefully Levert). What the team needs to take the next step is significant progress at the 4/5 position from EVERYONE that potentially plays there. Robinson will probably be good but not great. Chatman is a mess. Wilson was a mess before he was shut down. Doyle needs to get in shape and learn the nuances of the position. Donnal needs to bulk up. Max needs to grow 3-4 inches.
February 20th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
don't really think we got enough of Wilson to declare him a mess. He certainly did not impress but he was not on the floor a whole lot. The Arizona game is one he would likely want to forget.
February 20th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
No.
AC97 is correct. Wilson was lost. He didnt know where to run at times on defensive assignments - same issue Chatman has 3 months into the season. He looked physically overmatched vs mid majors - forget Arizona. On a team with Horford and Mitch you'd have never seen him this year. Hell in retrospect Chatman should have been redshirted too. But yes Wilson was lost - I was not surprised by that mentally but I was pretty shocked how weak he seemed physically... he was playing the 4 not the 5. Compare him v Troy Williams of Indiana who is a SO and he looks like a tall guy you just grabbed off the playground. Wilson needs a lot of work - in the gym and basketball IQ wise.
February 20th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
Just for reference, team offensive PPP in that same stretch (so not player-specific) comes out to an average of 1.04 over an average of 58 possessions per game for Michigan. As for best and worst offensive PPP, we achieved that (to date anyway) in back-to-back affairs - the worst was 0.83 in the last game against Illinois, and the best in the same range was our most recent matchup with MSU - 1.21.
February 20th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
Did you use artithmetic average for Ortg? That could be highly misleading since usage will be different for each game. It would need to be weighted by usage. But the individual game heatmap is still informative. Thanks for putting this together.
Doyle and Irvin really do seem to have been hurt by the absense of Levert's ability to create, but the effectiveness of Dawkins and MAAR have led to an improvement in Ortg overall since the 18th game. I think it's more the case of addition by subtraction of the other guy that went out at the same time (MAAR has been more effective than a hobbled Walton).
February 20th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^
Yeah, I didn't weight them. I made this quick at work, and didn't jot down the usage numbers. Arithmetic mean is at least better than nothing I suppose. But yea, the heatmaps are the main tool.
I appreciate the input, maybe when I get home I will update this with the usage, unless alcohol gets in the way.