MBB - Dec 28-Feb 3 Schedule
I was just looking at our schedule over the next month and it is going to determine if we have any shot at the NCAA tournament. I know, "like duh". But our team is young and I don't know if they can bounce back from any early conference struggles. It seems as though our BT schedule is pretty frontloaded.
#13Purdue, PSU, @Wisconsin, #3 Kansas, #2 Ohio State, @IU, @N'W, #16Minnesota, @#12MSU, Iowa, @#2OSU.
Yikes. Only game I feel extremely comfortable with is Iowa. IU and N'W are okay teams which I think we are better than, but they're still talented and they're both on the road. The first two BT games are pretty much must-win IMO. It will be tough to put together any sort of resume if we start 0-4 in the BT (I don't think we're going to win @Wisconsin or vs. OSU), which will be followed by two road games against other middling BT teams.
I don't think we're an NCAA team, and I think it'll be revealed this next month, but it should be some exciting few weeks for basketball if we do win some of these big games.
December 26th, 2010 at 5:26 PM ^
...opener (Tue at 2 pm ET) vs. Purdue is such a huge game. This season is literally on the brink as the B1G season opens.
Doesn't matter. I'll enjoy watching this team the rest of the season no matter what goes down.
December 26th, 2010 at 5:30 PM ^
just lost to Maine at home earlier this week. I think we can whip some Nittany Lion tail in the Jordan Center in our second game.
December 26th, 2010 at 5:42 PM ^
We play Penn State at Crisler
December 26th, 2010 at 5:43 PM ^
is definitely at Crisler.
December 26th, 2010 at 5:33 PM ^
Is more balanced and talented than it ever has been before. The only team that doesn't have a realistic shot at an NCAA bid is Iowa and PSU (and possibly Indiana).
December 26th, 2010 at 5:40 PM ^
I'm not as scared of B10 road games as I was last year. This team has much stronger chemistry than last year's had and is playing much better defense. Defense in particular is key to winning road games where it is often more difficult to score. Therefore, I certainly give us a good chance in 3 of those first 4 road games, and an outside shot at both Bucky and Sparty.
In light of this, if we can beat Purdue, Minnesota, and Iowa at home, we can be looking at something like:
#13Purdue - W
@PSU - W
@Wisconsin - probably L
#3 Kansas - L
#2 Ohio State - L
@IU - W
@N'W - W
#16Minnesota - W
@#12MSU - probably L
Iowa - W
@#2OSU - L
6-5 (6-4 B10) in that stretch, with a shot at 7-4 (7-3 B10), would make me very happy and would cement us firmly on the bubble and certainly in the NIT
December 26th, 2010 at 5:49 PM ^
I'm very nervous about road games this year, especially since we've only played 3 games away from Crisler and only one of those games was a true road game. We're 1-2 away from A2 and conference road games are always much tougher that nonconference IMO.
I'm expecting us to win four of the next eleven games. Anything more than that and I'd be ecstatic. I just think its a rough stretch to start out the new year and we're very young, which is going to make it tougher IMO.
December 26th, 2010 at 9:57 PM ^
This team seems to have some of that magic that the '08-'09 team of 2 years ago had, and they have instilled a lot of probably unwarrented optimism in me. I may have to re-evaluate in a couple of weeks, but no one on that schedule except Kansas and OSU really scares me at this point
December 27th, 2010 at 11:50 AM ^
That 08-09 team had some quality nonconference victories, this team...not so much. They've definitely exceeded my expectations, but they haven't impressed me in any ways other than that. There's still some glaring holes in this team (some fixable, some not, at least right now) and I think they'll be exposed in the BT schedule. I hope I'm wrong though.
December 26th, 2010 at 11:55 PM ^
Mostly agree, but I think a split at IU/NW is more realistic. It's tough to win on the road in this league.
December 26th, 2010 at 5:52 PM ^
But I think its how you finish that matters more then how you start. That comment is stated over and over again going into every March and it will hold true this year. However, the first games of this schedule will allow us to get some quality wins which I think we need 2 or 3 of, AT LEAST!!! With a team like this we always have a chance to win games, but then again with a team like this we can also get blown out in any game.
December 26th, 2010 at 6:02 PM ^
I agree that it is about how you finish, however, I am not sure this team is mature enough to handle a couple rough spots. Sure, we bounced back after the Cuse and UTEP losses with a win against Clemson, but we had a cake schedule other than those games. If we don't keep our heads up, things can snowball very quickly and we could be staring at a very disappointing BT record.
And you make a good point about quality wins. IMO, we don't have any on our schedule right now. @Clemson and Oakland aren't going to impress the committee. We need to beat some ranked BT teams, with a few on the road as well.
December 26th, 2010 at 6:07 PM ^
already. I think they are being coached up enough that if they lose a bad one (UTEP) they'll come right back with a good one (Clemson). I don't know if we'll make the NCAA. We have a decent shot I think. But we will have some really fun games. We're the dark horse of the B10 this year. It's going to be fun.
December 26th, 2010 at 6:13 PM ^
Don't claim to have much insight, but this team is better than last years, I can tell you that much.
Belien for Prez. Remember when Izzo was considering taking over the football head coaching duties at MSU. Well maybe Belien can take over as HC or DC for Michigan
December 26th, 2010 at 7:23 PM ^
There is a lot of hope in this thread. A whole lot of optimism about that Purdue game. I dont know. Most of my dream scenarios where Michigan makes the tournament include a loss to Purdue at home. With a team this young(and streaky) a nailbiting win and a blowout loss seem equally likely in most of these games. At any rate I will be there acting a fool. Hope you all can make it out on a Tuesday afternoon!
December 26th, 2010 at 8:29 PM ^
I wouldn't be disappointed if they ONLY make the NIT, because then I can see them play live a couple of subway stops away. I'm growing more and more confident that this year might be my last chance.
December 26th, 2010 at 8:57 PM ^
I was very concerned about our defense vs. Bryant. It seems we kind of crumbled, but it could just be they were hot (please?).
I would like to excuse that defense as an anomaly, but it definitely left a bad taste in my mouth going into conference play.
December 27th, 2010 at 1:20 AM ^
Our defense wasn't perfect that game by any means, but I personally thought Bryant was having a great shooting night. They made many a tough shot, including (from what I remember) many contested, or at least forced three point attempts.
December 26th, 2010 at 9:19 PM ^
If we shoot well, we will pull a few upsets. If not, things could get ugly. Our defense has been pretty solid (with the exception of last game), but unless we are shooting 35-40% from 3-pt land, the B10 season could be tough. Our D isn't going to be able to hold good offensive teams to few enough points to salvage a victory on bad shooting nights.
December 27th, 2010 at 8:50 AM ^
I agree that this next stretch is brutal. It'll be on Beilein to get them through it with their psyche intact. I am pretty confident he can do that. I think you have to consider the two potential goals that they have at this point. One, make the NIT and two, make the NCAA. To get to the NIT they need to get to .500, which means four more wins. To get to the NCAA, I think they probably need 21 minimum or 20 with a few big name wins throughout the rest of the season. Looking at the rest of the schedule....
"Must win" - Penn State, @ Penn State, Iowa, @ Iowa, Indiana.
Little chance of winning - Ohio State, @ Ohio State, @ Michigan State, Kansas, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois
Somewhere in the middle - @ Indiana, Northwestern, @ Northwestern, Minnesota, @ Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue
I realize nothing is truly must win, but if they lose any of those five, they will have to make it up with an unexpected win or they could be in trouble. So if they win the five must wins, lose the six "little chance" games, that will put them at 17-8 with the eight middle of the roadish games determining the season's outcome. I would hope for a win a piece against NW and Minnesota one way or the other. So to get to the 21, they will need to grab two of the four home games against Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue. I don't know if this team has it in it to pull this all off, but I wouldn't have even considered this all a month ago, so that's big time progress. Of course they could get run off the court tomorrow by Purdue and it could all look different, but I'm optimistic for the time being.