Max UM reaching CFP: best scenario between PSU, Maryland & OSU playing each other?
Before UM plays PSU, Maryland and OSU, All 3 of those teams will have already faced each other.
Yes, yes, yes...we all want OSU to lose every game from now to the end of time. However, let's apply some logic to the scenario that best helps Michigan reach the CFP:
So when Maryland plays OSU, OSU plays PSU and Maryland plays PSU, for those three games, who does Michigan want to win each of those games, to maximize Michigan's chances of reaching the CFP?
#GoBlue
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:27 PM ^
Worry about Minnesota.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
I tried but after last weekend I really cannot.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
I get it, but stranger things have happened and it is for the Brown Jug.
Kentucky could give Georgia fits, and maybe upset them, which would be my most preferred outcome for this weekend ( after retaining the Brown Jug).
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
Your sentiment is right, and any other year, we'd all be saying the same thing but there is just such a large discrepancy between the top 4 in the B1G East and everyone else. Not saying Minny can't pull the upset but I don't see how the defense just all of a sudden collapses and JJ, Corum, and Wilson decide not to play. Then, then we can talk about upsets.
Also Maryland deserves to be ranked, straight up. Beating a ranked Maryland team would be helpful in an otherwise lackluster resume.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
Someone asked a similar question of Ron Bellamy at today's M club lunch. They only care about Minnesota as they should. Win, stay healthy, show nothing to PSU and OSU.
By the way, Ron's father-in-law is Lion great, Dexter Bussey, and his brother-in-law is OSU favorite, Tim Biakabutuka.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Understandable, but these kind of upsets do happen. Not very often, but they do happen. To Michigan. By Minnesota.
I would guess that sentiments were similar going into this game in 1977 (16 - 0 upset of then #1 Michigan, by an unheralded Minnesota team).
I'm hopeful, but not yet convinced that Michigan can play a miserable game full of bad breaks for somewhere between 50 and 60 minutes and then suddenly turn on an explosive passing attack when they absolutely have to.
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:54 PM ^
Just beat the Gophers and let the rest sort itself out.
Jim Harbaugh will I’m sure never forget about Rickey Foggy and another unheralded Minnesota team that ruined an unbeaten Michigan season (the game before the Guarantee).
October 3rd, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^
I get it, but stranger things have happened and it is for the Brown Jug.
Kentucky could give Georgia fits, and maybe upset them
Kentucky is a WAY better team than Minnesota. If I were a UGA fan, my fear level for the Kentucky game would be like an 8, at least. My current fear level for Minnesota is about a 3.
Sure, anything could happen, but this is a relatively low anxiety week right now. That said, desperate need to win level is a 10. Always a 10.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^
We all eagerly await our weekly assignments from Coach Harbaugh. Until they arrive, indulge us all with a little fandom
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
Never heard of her
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
The players and coaches need to do that, us fans can speculate and look ahead as much as we like.
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
Why? Is OP on the team?
October 3rd, 2023 at 8:12 AM ^
We know what Michigan has, so the only way the Gophers beat Michigan is if they play worse than they played against TCU. I dont see that happening. Michigan wins by 27. After a month of cupcakes at home and a drumming at Nebraska this team is re-focused and will steamroll on the road. This offense is dangerous and the defense is flat out nasty.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
OSU to win all. We beat everyone as well.
Hence, a close game against OSU may indeed gets both teams in the playoff, regardless of outcome.
Feels gross, but this is the most likely outcome.
Better outcome...OSU loses a few and comes to Ann Arbor broken and their NFL players have packed it in...but this is unlikely.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
i'm rooting for a broken OSU. Ohio against the World!!! /s
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
The "X Team against the world" or "X Team vs Everybody" is such a lame ass motto and quite honestly is embarrassing when teams that have the resources and riches of OSU use that as some sort of motivation. Uh, hello... you have one of the largest (and annoying) fanbases, a huge endowment and alumni sponsors, and a top 5 recruiting class for like the past 15 years. Beyond a few doubters (cough -Lou Holt- cough), everyone is universally picking you to at least be in CFP conversation.
So no, Ryan Day. I'm sorry but you don't get to say OSU vs the world because the actual college football world is made up of the Ball States', Wyomings', and UTEPs' who would trade decades of shitty football for anyone just to mention them in the same sentence as the CFP. I hate you.
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
Well put. I'd add (as I did here recently, I think) that the sports media world kisses OSU's ass on the regular.
October 3rd, 2023 at 6:23 AM ^
Ohio against the World!!!
Let's go World!!!
October 3rd, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
For being "wOrlD FaMOus" Its weird they'd be against the world.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
I hear you, but I absolutely do NOT want Backdoor Buckeyes Redux. They were within a couple of feet of getting to the championship game (and almost certainly winning it) last year.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Agree completely. I also don't want us to make it if we lose to the Buckeyes. I'd like to see ND get to about 8-4 so the win looks less impressive. And, to hell with ND
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
Considering how strong the PAC-12 looks this season, and how strong Texas is playing, I think it unlikely two B1G teams make the CFP.
#GoBlue
October 3rd, 2023 at 12:09 AM ^
Win the Big Ten. There is no other option.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
Just win your in.
I want to edit this so badly but I've already shone how I can hurry a post.
Thanks for the correction hammer.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
Just win, you're in > Just win your in > Just win urine.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
My what now?
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
I think between Michigan's non con and bad draw of crossover teams, they can't afford to lose. Any tie breaker probably keeps them out of the B1G title game and 11-1 with at best one good win probably doesn't do it. OSU was very lucky to get in with that resume last year.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
Exactly.
Sorry but I think the "just win and everything takes care of itself" mantra is lazy and adds nothing to the discussion. Do people who post this retort really believe others don't already know this? Is it ok to discuss what might happen in a given scenario like what the OP has asked?
More on point to Mr Vonnegut's response above, Michigan almost certainly has to win out to make the CFP or hope for chaos like you haven't fucking seen in years. You could possibly lose to Maryland and hope it gets forgotten by the time the voters come around and sneak into the 4th spot but Maryland would need to end the year ranked somehow.
What really sucks is the B1G title game is essentially useless for B1G East teams because it won't add a quality win to your resume but may knock you out of the CFP with a loss.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^
-A one loss UM team will have a better resume than TCU or OSU had last year. You honestly think the #1/2 team losing to a top 5 team bounces down 3+ spots? We worry too much about September schedules. The only sure bet is a second loss and you are done.
-Our loss would probably be to a top 3 or 4 team
-Oregon/Washington/USC/Utah/Colorado/Wash st/Oregon St are going to eat each other. Everyone is probably going to get a loss. They arent passing a UM team with a top 4 loss. If someone goes undefeated then they have earned it.
-ACC is pinning its hopes on FSU going undefeated. Talk about strength of schedule going forward.
-Big T(hre)EN will decide probably half the playoff spots.
You want Maryland to do maximum damage.
Georgia/Pac 12 undefeated/ Undefeated FSU/Undefeated Texas/Big 3
That is your field right now. If the bolded falls off that opens new spots in the playoff.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:56 PM ^
Disagree on your list at the end. One loss FSU with wins over Clemson and LSU is likely better than one loss Michigan with only one good win. Same for one loss Texas with a win at Alabama, any one loss P12 team with multiple top 15 wins. One loss, non-division champ Michigan with a terrible sos is a tough sell against any one loss power five conference champ.
Next year with a 12 team playoff, no problem. This year, better get really lucky
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^
Clemson? Who is that? Maryland probably is better but of course they got Um PSU and OSU so there is 3 losses. Clemson has uh... Duke (Loss) and FSU (loss) and .....
Texas you may be right BUT the polls have set Um and Georgia to be the top of the heap of teams with as many losses. If Texas was better they would be ranked higher NOW. Texas already has its best win in the books. Polls tell you how they are going to rank teams with same amount of losses. Right nwo unless Georgia or Um piss their pants in a loss or lose to a bad team they will stay at the top of the pile of teams that have as many losses as them.
Again if Texas is better why are they not higher ranked now? How are they going to lose to anybody left on that schedule and jump us?
I love the discussion though you got some great points that got me thinkin!
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:35 PM ^
if Texas is better why are they not higher ranked now?
Because they started the season further down. Michigan started near the top, hasn't lost, but doesn't have any impressive SOS wins yet.
If each loses one, the question will be how bad is that loss (to whom), and how does Michigan's two wins against PSU/MD/OSU stack up against Texas' win against Alabama and Oklahoma; AND OSU's record against the same 3 as Michigan plus their ND win.
I think a 1-loss Texas or 1-loss Pac12 or 1-loss FSU would probably beat out a 1-loss second B1G team.
October 3rd, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
If Texas has a loss it isnt going to vault them over a UM team with a loss to #3-5 OSU or PSU. Nobody on the Texas schedule stacks up for that kind of quality loss or win and they are already behind us.
Penn St/OSU is miles ahead of Oklahoma/Bama plus starting points in the poll. Competitive losses for Texas and UM puts us firmly ahead of them. Nobody cares about the crap teams we played when we finish with Maryland, PSU, and OSU. Only Michigan fans not entertained enough care about OOC with that finish.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
Agreed. Oddly, the games they can probably get away with losing are the next four against bad teams.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
I like to save those mental gymnastics for a little later in the season.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
So you’re upset with the guarantee of “just win and you’re in” over the hypothetical “what could be”, the proverbial “what would you rather have”? The best answer is the former, obviously. I simply choose to believe that there is nobody in this conference that can outplay us for 60 minutes. We are not just trying to get to the playoff. We are focused one game at a time on winning the championship. That is the stated goal. This team has mature, veteran leadership. I’d be shocked if they stumble before OSU game and we know how ugly that game will get. We don’t need best case scenario.
One last thing, I always root for OSU to lose.
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:37 PM ^
What really sucks is the B1G title game is essentially useless for B1G East teams because it won't add a quality win to your resume but may knock you out of the CFP with a loss.
Or even reduce your seed.
In 2019, OSU & LSU were competing for the #1 seed w/ Clemson at #3. Wisconsin's strong first half in the B1G title game dropped OSU from 1 to 2 before getting suckered in a loss to Clemson. Retaining that 1 seed would have been HUGE and the CCG cost them it.
October 3rd, 2023 at 7:53 AM ^
Sorry but I think the "just win and everything takes care of itself" mantra is lazy and adds nothing to the discussion.
Yes, exactly. It adds nothing to the discussion because the discussion is inane. Talking about what happens in these various one loss scenarios is just dumb.
October 3rd, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
I think it highly likely UGA drops one with FSU, Wash and or USC loosing. There is too much parity in college FB to have more than one or 2 unbeaten teams. This year perhaps only one. If we can win out it wont matter. The. Whole idea of loosing one puts my stomach in knots. I don’t know how many years it will take Michigan to get a team like this together again. Maybe Im short sighted.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
In terms of maximizing possibilities to win the division, you'd want somebody to go 2-0 (as opposed to all 3 of them going 1-1).
(1) If somebody goes 2-0, U-M could afford a loss to the 0-2 team, and they'd still win the division. They could also lose to the 1-1 team, and still win the division on a 3-way 8-1 tie-breaker.
(2) If everyone goes 1-1, U-M cannot win the division with any loss.
Important caveat: all the above presumes that none of the 4 lose to anyone else.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
We would want OSU to lose to both, and Maryland to beat Penn State. We would then need one more PSU loss to anybody (including Michigan) and to beat Maryland. I think those would be the best odds other than "just win out."
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
I agree with this being UM's best scenario for making the CFP. Problem is, take a look at PSU's schedule. The rest of PSU's schedule is as easy, if not easier than Michigan.
#GoBlue
October 3rd, 2023 at 8:35 AM ^
PSU @ Maryland and @ OSU isn't very easy.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
This exercise is really only useful IF we lose one before the OSU game. Until then I shall not entertain such nonsense. And even then I probably won't entertain it.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
Way too many variables going on for there to be clear rooting interests. Michigan makes the CFP if they win the Big Ten with 1 loss or no losses. They also make the CFP if they go 12-0 but somehow lose in the Big Ten Championship. With the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 all positioned to have a no-loss or 1-loss champion, it’s unlikely Michigan makes it without making the Big Ten championship. So the rooting interest is whatever would allow us to still advance to the Big Ten championship if we drop a game. We won’t know what that is until it’s too late to have a rooting interest.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
I think we said this last year and USC shit the bed spectacularly. The PAC winner has to beat everyone else and additionally beat a good team a second time. I don't know if anyone can come out of there with just 1 loss
October 3rd, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
I don't think there are too many variables.
Let's assume Michigan finishes 11-1 in the regular season. 12-0 there's nothing to worry about, 10-2 and there's no hope.
IF the loss loss is to someone besides OSU or PSU, then we'd still win the division (unless Maryland beats us and runs the table or also finishes 11-1; let's assume that's not happening).
IF the loss is to OSU, then we need PSU to beat OSU AND for PSU to finish 11-1. Ideally OSU loses another game elsewhere. If OSU loses 2 games, then Michigan wins division based on H2H with PSU. If OSU only lost to PSU, then it comes down to 3-way tiebreaker.
IF the loss is to PSU, then we need OSU to beat PSU AND for OSU to finish 11-1. Ideally PSU loses another game elsewhere. If PSU has 2 losses, then Michigan wins division based on H2H with OSU. If PSU only lost to OSU, then it comes down to 3-way tiebreaker.
IF the latter two scenarios result in a 3-way tiebreaker, then Michigan NEEDS Nebraska to finish with a better conference record than Wisconsin AND (Nebraska, Purdue, Minnesota) to cumulatively have a better conference record than (Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa).
So in summary we really should be rooting FOR Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota and AGAINST Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and Iowa. Unfortunately needing Nebraska to outperform Wisconsin in conference play to win a 3-way tiebreaker means it's very very unlikely Michigan comes out on top in a 3-way tie.
Since OSU/PSU play each other before Michigan plays either opponent, then that result will dictate the importance of the Michigan/PSU and Michigan/OSU games. Basically Michigan NEEDS to beat the winner of OSU/PSU, otherwise winning the division is essentially impossible unless the OSU/PSU winner that also beats Michigan somehow loses two other conference games.
Based on the fact that the odds of Michigan winning a 3-way tiebreaker seem slim to none, there may be a chance where if OSU beats PSU, and PSU beats Michigan, then the OSU/Michigan game could occur when Michigan is effectively eliminated from East Division contention due to the 3-way tiebreaker. In that case we'd need to beat OSU still obviously, and hope the East representative loses in the B1GCG
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
Other than UM winning out, which I really hope happens, we need to beat OSU but can drop another game (or) OSU has two losses but beats UM and UM has only one loss (or) UM has a close to OSU and there is not a better winner in other P5 conferences that can overtake UM. Third scenario can be dicey.
If UM did not win out, I would rather have scenario 1 above as long as PSU does not win out or only have one loss and to OSU.
Yuck. Hope UM wins it all.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
Listen, I don't really care about making the playoffs. I want OSU to lose every game and I want Michigan to beat OSU.
I'm a simple man.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
Normally I would agree, but I think this year is our best shot at another NC since 1997. And it would be nice to win one before the playoffs add more teams. After expansion I expect to make it most years.