Maryland Offense Very Manageable for UM Defense - CJ Brown is no Gary Nova
I am going to remain unfashionable around here and talk about actual football. I am seeing a lot of angst about this Maryland game - maybe due to the 6-3 record I suppose. Yes we are mediocre as all hell, but taking a closer look at Maryland so are they. Looking at their advanced stats they are basically Rutgers level with a slightly better defense. And we get it at home.
I was curious how their QB (CJ Brown) stacks up so I did a run down of the QBs we have played in Big 10 + Golson, and threw in Tommy Armstrong. Indiana had a pylon out there so didn't bother. CJ Brown is not a good QB. In the words of Lloyd Bentsen "I knew Gary Nova, Gary Nova was a friend of mine. Brown, you're no Gary Nova."
While difficult to believe, Gary Nova is most likely the 3rd best QB in the Big 10. As shockingly, one can make a case Hackenberg is among the worst. Here they are sorted by adjusted QBR.
QBR | Comp % | Yds | YPA | TD | INT | Sack | |
Barrett | 84.2 | 64 | 2156 | 9.3 | 26 | 7 | 19 |
Cook | 81 | 60 | 2226 | 9.2 | 19 | 5 | 6 |
Golson | 74.3 | 62 | 2757 | 8.3 | 24 | 11 | 21 |
SuperNova | 69.4 | 58 | 1995 | 9.4 | 14 | 10 | 16 |
Armstrong | 64.2 | 53 | 1827 | 7.9 | 13 | 8 | 8 |
Leidner | 62.2 | 53 | 1225 | 8.1 | 10 | 6 | 12 |
Brown | 47.1 | 54 | 1477 | 6.3 | 9 | 6 | 24 |
Gardner | 43.2 | 61 | 1557 | 6.9 | 8 | 13 | 19 |
Siemian | 44.4 | 58 | 1837 | 5.5 | 5 | 8 | 28 |
Hackenberg | 33 | 56 | 2206 | 6.4 | 7 | 12 | 35 |
Brown is a less accurate version of Siemian - who torched Ray Taylor but still. The only QB who threw for less yards per attempt is Siemian. Brown's 54% completion rate is only better than Mitch Leidner and Tommy Armstrong. (by a whole %) And those guys at least attempt to throw the ball farther (nearly 2 yards per attempt). He gets sacked a boatload of times. So it's a guy who throws a lot of short passes, in an inaccurate fashion while getting hit all day. This is not a guy who is going to throw over our safeties like Nova could.
Speaking of Leidner, Minnesota at least has Cobb, a very good RB. Maryland's leading rusher? CJ Brown and his 380 yards. About 100 more than Leidner. (Cobb has 1200 for perspective) So Brown is the whole show; their leading RB has about 50 more yards than Drake Johnson on the year.
Further, of Brown's 1477 paltry yards, Stefon Diggs and his nearly 700 looks like will be sidelined. And an angry MSU is going to Maryland this weekend to tenderize them for us.
3 wins in a row baby? If our salty offense can chuck up 17-20 pts it sure looks possible. Doesn't mean much in the big picture but no reason to be fearful of these Terps.
Tangent: look at poor Hackenberg. His stats (aside from yardage) all trail Devin. That's what 35 sacks and countless pressures will do to you. Will be interesting to see if he recovers mentally in 2015.
November 11th, 2014 at 6:55 AM ^
isn't a good quarterback but threw for 400+ yards against us. Over 20% of Nova's yards came against us which is comical at best. Nova has only surpassed 200+ yards in three other games, Washington State whose D is a joke, Howard, and Tulane.
In Big 10 play, Nova's stats:
PSU 15 of 30 for 192; OSU 17 of 28 for 192, Nebraska 8 of 19 for 158, Wisconsin 5 of 15 for 46.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:01 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^
Exactly my first thought.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:01 AM ^
First, I didnt say Nova is a "good" QB. I am saying there is a case he is the 3rd best QB in the Big 10 this year. That says a lot more about the Big 10 than Gary Nova.
Every team has played a few non conf tomato cans and every QB had a chance to stuff his stats against them. Hell I'd argue playing Indiana defense is easier than most MAC teams D right now.
Also Nova is now hurt (mid way thru the Nebraska game) They still tried to throw him out there vs Wisconsin since his backup seems Shane Morris-y. (2/12 vs Wisconsin)
Again Gary Nova is not that good of a QB. But vs his peers in the Big 10 statistically he is the 3rd best QB in the league. Which is a damning statement about the other 11 starting QBs. And why currently the Big 10 has 7 of the top 21 ranked defenses in "total defense" in the country. (which doesnt adjust for SOS)
Its a LOL offense conference full of horrible passers. Of which Nova is the tallest midget once you remove the 2 QBs who are actually decent (Cook/Barrett) And CJ Brown is not in his class...
November 11th, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
If you actually believe Nova is the third best QB in the BIG or if there is even a case for it then I have some ocean front property to sell you in Arizona.
November 11th, 2014 at 6:57 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 6:57 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 7:15 AM ^
If our salty offense can chuck up 17-20 pts it sure looks possible.There's the problem.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:30 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^
Their defense is at about Northwestern's level. Which prior to UM showing up gave up 48 to Iowa, and 38 to Nebraska the 2 prior weeks. Maryland gave up 52 to Wisconsin a few weeks ago.
It's a midde of the pack mediocre Big 10 defense. If we can score 7, 10, 14, 17, or 20 is up to what Devin wants to do that day and how often he wants to give away the ball.
November 11th, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 7:28 AM ^
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November 11th, 2014 at 7:44 AM ^
If nothing else, having the chance to get in another 3 weeks of practice for Morris, Speight and hopefully Malzone if he stays the course and enrolls early are clearly worthy of playing for against Maryland.
I get the consideration that it might present a ray of light in retaining or not retaining Hoke, but I think that ship has sailed with his boss no longer around, and most certainly a new AD is not going to want to have that tied to them immediately upon arrival.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:57 AM ^
Happy to be corrected if wrong, but I don't think Malzone would be participating in bowl practices regardless, as those would be in December.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:55 AM ^
Gary Nova was no Johhny Manziel yet he tore us apart. The bottom line is I don't trust our offense to put up enough points to beat anybody. Gardner is broken and Funchess is an outright fraud.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:02 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:12 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:34 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:52 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:52 AM ^
I don't get the 10% if Harbaugh comes here.
If what you say is true...he's going to like Harbaugh much less than Hoke.
November 11th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 9:11 AM ^
Strange that he seems out of it and all but Butt gets sat down for a game.
November 11th, 2014 at 7:59 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:12 AM ^
The top ten QBs in the conference by passing efficiency using the NCAA rating calculation:
Comp-Att-Int | Pct. | Yards | TD | Effic. | |
Barrett, J.T.-OSU | 150 - 233 - 7 | 64.4 | 2156 | 26 | 172.9 |
Cook, Connor-MSU | 145 - 243 - 5 | 59.7 | 2226 | 19 | 158.3 |
Nova, Gary-RU | 123 - 212 - 10 | 58 | 1995 | 14 | 149.4 |
Leidner, Mitch-MINN | 81 - 152 - 6 | 53.3 | 1225 | 10 | 134.8 |
Armstrong Jr.-NEB | 122 - 230 - 8 | 53 | 1827 | 13 | 131.5 |
Rudock, Jake-IOWA | 158 - 248 - 4 | 63.7 | 1653 | 10 | 129.8 |
Sudfeld, Nate-IND | 101 - 167 - 3 | 60.5 | 1151 | 6 | 126.6 |
Gardner, Devin-MICH | 139 - 227 - 13 | 61.2 | 1557 | 8 | 119 |
Brown-UMD | 127 - 236 - 6 | 53.8 | 1477 | 9 | 113.9 |
Hackenberg, C.-PSU | 195 - 347 - 12 | 56.2 | 2206 | 7 | 109.3 |
If we were to look at it this way, Brown is a slightly less efficient Gardner by the raw data. Interestingly, using the NCAA formula, Siemian sits at comfortable 104.2.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^
Yep yep yep. Put another way - if Maryland and Rutgers were not in the league who would be the 3rd best QB in the Big 10 this year? You'd be staring at a wall for hours pondering. It's bad out there... real bad.
Hackenberg being at the bottom third is the real shocker.
I like what I am seeing out of Appleby for a first year starter who was pushed in there half way thru the year, and hell next year with how bad the talent is in this league he might be the 3rd best QB in the Big 10 if he makes a year over year jump. (if PSU's OL doesnt improve) Hazell at least seems to know how to coach offense. He doesnt have any playmakers around him unfortunately. You put a guy like Appleby in UM's offense and we probably have 2 extra wins and look a lot better in our losses.
November 11th, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^
sandwich on Maryland. This I believe.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:52 AM ^
OSU. That win could and maybe should save his job.
MD win and even the lackluster bowl win for 7-6 season will not save his job.
Now what are the odds of that OSU win....
November 11th, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
Defeating OSU should not save his job. One miraculous victory should not trump three years of mediocrity and ineptitude.
Brady Hoke should be relieved of his duties as head coach on November 30, 2014. End of story.
November 11th, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:22 AM ^
Thank you for discussing actual football!
November 11th, 2014 at 8:46 AM ^
Its hard to play well when no one can block for you, but I'd hate to see a talent such as him go to waste. He has the tools to be playing on Sundays. And the Big Ten needs marquee players.
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November 11th, 2014 at 9:00 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 9:14 AM ^
He could have gone anywhere. He chose to go to PSU, even after their sanctions were announced. He wanted to be their hero, in the face of adversity. Now he's finding how hard that is.
November 11th, 2014 at 8:49 AM ^
Funchess' drops have affected Gardner's numbers. that's the way it goes.
November 11th, 2014 at 9:56 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 8:51 AM ^
With him out, we will win. Our DBs can cover all types of WRs, except the fast ones.
November 11th, 2014 at 9:37 AM ^
I'm not going to lie, that made me chuckle.
November 11th, 2014 at 9:02 AM ^
thanks for this and several other recent, informative posts 'about football'
November 11th, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 9:55 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 9:56 AM ^
November 11th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
Anytime somebody breaks down a football game by talking almost exlusively about QBs I make damn sure I listen because football is basically tennis with an offensive line instead of a net.
/s
The other thread where you grasped at straws to see a reason for optimisim with this awful team was better.
Michigan has a chance because because Maryland is not very good. But Maryland is a respectable football team with a functioning O and functioning D. Michigan hasn't beaten a team like this yet.
If they score more than 14 points, it will be the best offensive performance of the season against a D this good. Rutgers was not as good.
If they beat Maryland, it will be their most impressive victory of the year, and it will be a surprise.
I do very much like that you're talking about football, but I have to splash some cold water on the irrational optimism.