Losses by Eventual B1G Champion
I had been thinking about the 2016 Penn State B1G run. I think we can all agree that that's what we're looking for, even if the team doesn't yet deserve the benefit of the doubt. So here are the eventual B1G champions who might've been feeling similarly to how we are now:
- 2011 Wisconsin (11-3, 6-2 B1G) beat MSU 42-39 in the title game. Before that, the Badgers suffered back-to-back road losses to MSU and OSU.
- 2012 technically counts, since eventual B1G champion Wisconsin was 4-4 in the league, but that's because OSU (12-0) was ineligible for postseason play so nothing much here.
- 2013 MSU (13-1, 8-0 B1G) beat OSU 34-24 in the title game and didn't lose a conference game, but they started the season sluggish on offense and suffered an early-season setback at Notre Dame
- 2014 Ohio State (14-1, 8-0 B1G) beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the title game. While they also didn't lose in Big Ten play, they did lose early in the season at home to Virginia Tech 35-21.
- 2015 MSU (12-2, 7-1 B1G) beat Iowa 16-13 in the title game. MSU suffered a 39-38 loss after a controversial call at Nebraska, and they could've had a second conference loss if not for a fumbled snap at the end of a certain game.
- 2016 Penn State (11-3, 8-1) beat Wisconsin 38-31 in the title game. This is probably the optimistic comparison we are most familiar with: after falling 2-2, losing to Pittsburgh and then getting throttled in Ann Arbor 49-10, the Nittany Lions got healthy and on the right track nearly winning the Rose Bowl as well.
- 2017 OSU (12-2, 8-1 B1G) beat Wisconsin 27-21 in the title game. OSU lost 55-24 at Iowa.
- 2018 OSU (13-1, 8-1 B1G) beat Northwestern 45-24. OSU lost 49-20 at Purdue and needed OT to beat Maryland 52-51.
So the point is that the past few Big Ten champions each suffered a humiliating road defeat en route to their title. We have some real problems that need to be figured out, which I won't rehash here, and as I mentioned earlier it's too early to say that we deserve the benefit of the doubt, but at the very least there is some precedent for teams figuring it out and making a run.
Am I saying Michigan will? Nah, but am I saying it's possible? Yeah.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
The fine folks over at Maize N' Brew posted this article, from which this post was inspired.
Drink responsibly everyone!
September 26th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
Only one that you could somewhat say is similar to us is 2016 Penn St. That game wasn't close at all. OSU losses in 2017 and 2018 were bad, but you also had other games in that season that where OSU dominated. Michigan has looked good for not even a half. First half of MTSU is our best play this season so far. Rough.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
Bacon you are spot on. What have we seen from Michigan in these last 5 games (OSU, Bowl Game, MTSU, Army and Wisconsin) to think that we are going to get this team challenging for a B10 Championship?
September 26th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
We've got lots of other games left for domination to develop.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^
2016 Penn State was hot garbage to start the season. A cupcake win, a loss to Pitt, a near loss to Temple, a thumping loss to us, and then an OT survival against Minnesota. After a win over Maryland that same team beat Ohio State and went on to absolutely smoke almost every other team they played in the regular season, beat a decent Wisconsin team to win the B1G and barely lost to USC in that bonkers arm-punt bowl game.
while i see why there's reasons for comparison, their season feels like a best case scenario at this point. Beat rutgers and figure some shit out. Survive Iowa. get your shit fully figured out against Illinois in time to tackle @ PSU and ND. Win the Ex-Alabama bowl vs Maryland and then a bye week to sort your plan out for MSU, IU, and OSU.
Is that likely to happen? no. Still feels like we'll see some more losses than '16 PSU did but...
September 26th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
Pretty sure Gattis was the WR coach on that 2016 Penn State team, too.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:50 PM ^
Agree, but I will say that last year's OSU team spent much of the year hearing "what's wrong with OSU?" They were winning, but just didn't seem right much of the year (until the final week, of course.) 1 point win over Maryland, close win over a Nebraska team that Mich embarrassed, nothing special over a couple other bottom feeder Big Ten Teams. That is why many picked Mich to beat them in the game. Granted the also had the games that they won big, and we haven't done that yet.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
2019 Michigan is trending down. I'm a fan too. But let's be realistic. People who make these comparisons look like clowns who don't understand the game of football. Our coaching is bad. We are physically getting dominated on defense. Our QB can't find a 2nd read. And he doesn't like contact. The best part of this team so far is the kicker and punter.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
"Our QB can't find a 2nd read. And he doesn't like contact."
Agree on first statement, but what QB "likes" contact? Perhaps ours is getting hit so frequently, he doesn't want to hang around for the 2nd read. It seems to me that he bails early, but on the MGOBLOG roundtable this morning, it was reported that our QBs have been taking an obscene number of hits, especially against Wisconsin.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
McCaffrey seems to like contact. That dude plays his ass off.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:27 PM ^
He likes contact? He almost got himself killed. He practically got back-to-back decapitated. That's not playing your ass off, that's being reckless. No QB on our roster should be taking those hits he took Saturday. Who in their right mind would celebrate that? To me that was reason 1A and 1B why he shouldn't be in the game. Guy has already cost himself a season with a broken collarbone. We need him to run the offense. He's no good to anybody "craving contact", getting blown to bits and lying on the field in a heap.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
Yes honestly.
Part of what QBs have to do is stay alive - can't manage the game if knocked out of it. People loved to rag on John O'Korn but man could he scramble out of coverage and avoid injury.
There's a reason Haskins hasn't been playing. Watched part of the game on Sunday and the starter was left in the whole time. Haskins at this best when he's comfortable in the pocket and they didn't want him getting killed by the Bears' defense.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:30 PM ^
There are reasons why Shea is not good in the pocket. The number one reason is he has happy feet......even good OL' s give up pressure. Shea is a 7 on 7 type QB. Reality is what it is. And the fact that he can't find a 2nd read is why he looks like he is popping his pants.
September 26th, 2019 at 7:58 PM ^
I don't know... Literally every statement you made about this team was made about 2016 PSU. Even the circumstances surrounding each team's inefficiencies are eerily similar. True, it would be foolish to EXPECT that kind of turnaround for our team, but drawing comparisons to a very recent precedent (one that involved our OC) doesn't make anyone look like a clown.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^
We are! (2016) Penn State!
September 26th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^
“Don’t stop,..... believing!!... Street Lights...” and I forgot the words...
September 26th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
Everybody still trying to convince themselves this is going to be a good team, huh? This is called the bargaining stage.
September 26th, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^
Literally not which is why I mentioned “Michigan doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt” no fewer than twice and included the “am I saying this will happen? Nah” part for good measure. I was trying hard not to move people off of their negativity by being too positive.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:22 PM ^
Good post, thank you.
I love reading the "if you know football" posts that are littering this board right now (and why we should be so pessimistic because "if you know football" you know we're doomed). I will say that "if you know football" you also know that mistakes can be corrected (especially scheme related) and 18 - 22 kids with a ton of talent can turn it on with some motivation. Will it happen? I don't know anymore than you do, Mr. Football expert(s).
I will take a wild guess and say that Jim Harbaugh, who even if he has lost a step (as all of the qualified doctor's on this board seem to think is so obvious), still knows a lot more about football than most anyone posting on the MGoBlog message board.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^
Did any of these teams lack defensive tackles? Because we don't have defensive tackles.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^
Kemp is okay and Dwumfour is injured. If Hinton or Smith can just be okay backups by the end of the year, that could do wonders for us. But yeah, we're extremely thin.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:37 PM ^
Dwumfour is a good pass rushing DT, but a liability in the run game. Kemp is a guy. He tries his ass off, but he's out of position.
I wouldn't mind if they just threw Hinton and Smith out there so they can get a ton of experience.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^
But none of those teams had a QB who was 3LITE in FORTNITE!!!
Just sayin'...
September 26th, 2019 at 2:31 PM ^
The loss to Wisconsin wasn't some weird game and we all should have seen it coming. This wasn't the 5th game in a row we looked lackluster to bad, it was the 6th game in a row. Going back to Indiana last year we've not looked good. IU, OSU, Florida, MTSU, Army, Wisconsin. Those 6 games have been awful to watch. We're more likely to lose 5 more games this season that we are to win the Big ten Title, that's just the awful truth.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
In UM's defense, India has, like 1.3 billion people on their roster. So they're obviously oversigning.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^
Games from last season really mean nothing in regards to how this team is playing.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
Normally not, but Don Brown's defense has not been good for all 6 of those games and I think that is schematic problems.
September 26th, 2019 at 6:16 PM ^
^ this indeed is the sad truth. Shae looks completely lost. Even if stuff gets sorted out on the OL. There is no way to hide a bad QB. I expect loses to Iowa, PSU and embarrassments to MSU, ND and OSU. -
I almost have to laugh bc ...of course, this happens when all the pieces are seemingly there.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:36 PM ^
2016 Penn State was such a strange team. I don't think many people saw a B1G title in the works after the early Pitt defeat and beatdown by us. But they righted the ship and finished strong.
Do I see that happening with our team this year? Absolutely not. But I hold out a glimmer of hope that we see tangible progress in the coming weeks. I'm looking for something. Anything.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
They also blocked 2 kicks in the 4th quarter to beat OSU. How many times you seen 2 blocked kicks in 1 quarter
September 26th, 2019 at 2:39 PM ^
Still in the denial stage huh?
September 26th, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
Lots of denial . Lots and lots.
Soft football teams don't come close to championships.
September 26th, 2019 at 5:58 PM ^
Not particularly. I tried hard not to be accused of being positive by mentioning 3 times that I don’t think that’s what’s going to happen.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
I don't think any of those teams every looked as dysfunctional as we have the past several weeks. Lets stop looking for reasons we can win or be the next 2016 PSU. That is not us. We will be lucky to win 8 games. Accept our fate...you'll be happier.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:04 PM ^
2016 Penn State did look that dysfunctional. That is the only one, though.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^
They scored 39 points against Pitt. That's way more than we've done against another P5 team.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
Well, actually, I do agree with others that 2016 PSU might be the one that, for a good long while, nobody saw coming, at least given the way that their campaign started. I don't think it is likely we end up being that, but if nothing else, it is at least true that football is weird sometimes.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
this one is about early struggles by college football playoff participants
https://mgoblog.com/diaries/saturday-psycho-week-36-embrace-suck
16 of 20 started rough, especially fighting turnovers,
September 26th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
That 2016 Penn st game is when I truly thought, holy shit, we are going to start destroying everyone. How the hell did we get here...
September 26th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
I think the best comparison would be PSU, since they started really sluggish and got blown out by arguably the best team in the B1G.
I get that OSU got blown out in 17 and 18, but those were trap games against lower quality teams in the B1G. It's not quite the same as getting blown out on the road against a top B1G team (as PSU and we have done).
Obviously those OSU losses were embarrassing, but they were walking into a situation where they thought they would get an easy W. They clearly messed up. Our guys went into Wisconsin understanding all week they were the underdog.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
by the way, NOT expecting 2016 PSU. I think it's 9-3 at best.
Just saying they're the best team to compare and try to emulate. All the OSU teams, Wisconsin teams, and the MSU teams are not comparable situations
September 26th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
Penn State, ND, MSU, OSU
If we get 2 wins out of those 4 games I’ll be content. Content is happy. 1 win: disappointed. 3 wins: Season was a success, let’s celebrate. 4 wins: no words can explain my happiness
September 26th, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
Dude... after Saturday I'll be beyond shocked if we win any of those four games.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:06 PM ^
I left out zero wins because it’s not an option
September 26th, 2019 at 3:02 PM ^
Heres the thing that gets in the way of that idea. We have no semblance of looking like it might be figured out AND during the season the NCAA has rigid guidelines about how much time we an practice, that two weeks off was seriously crucial to "righting the ship" and we pissed it away. Now we only have a handful of days each week to only focus on the next opponent. I don't honestly don't feel knowing the limited time we have to change, how deflated we look, how confused everyone is that we have a shot at running the table. or even come close.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
"NCAA has rigid guidelines about how much time we can practice"
But what if all the guys take online courses? Then they'd have more time to study the playbook.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:09 PM ^
A lot of it is about mindset. Sometimes it takes literally one play for the light to come on. The 2016 Penn State blocked punt against OSU is a perfect example. We have had two plays that I was hopeful for this year, the Metellus fumble return and the Bell catch. Both ended in disaster.
Honestly, as bad as this team has been, they have gotten precisely 0 luck. Every single fumble has bounced directly into the hands of the other team. Often it has been impossible to even see, you have just had to take the refs word for it.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:08 PM ^
It’s also possible the world ends as I’m typing this post...
September 26th, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^
We can hope but dang it’s hard to see. But I thought Frames was getting fired after his 16 start.