Latest Mock Drafts
Yup, draft is on Thu, so we have the final mock drafts from various outlets. I'm not a Pistons fan, but something something know your audience blah blah. Pistons and Michigan player picks.
Bennedict Mathurin is the new "in" pick for the Pistons at 5, with Murray generally falling to Indy at 6. There are a couple outliers, but still the same SG/SF type. Houstan is in most mocks, with Yahoo even putting him in the first round. Moussa is only in two of them at the very tail end of round 2.
ESPN ($) (updated 6/21)
1. Orlando - Jabari Smith
2. OKC - Chet Holmgren
3. Houston - Paolo Banquero
4. Sacramento - Jaden Ivey
5. Detroit - Bennedict Mathurin, SG/SF, Arizona (last time, he had Keegan Murray)
Mathurin drew strong reviews on the private workout trail, excelling in competitive action, individual drills and interview sessions everywhere he visited and boosting his stock into the mid-lottery in the process. Detroit's front office and coaching staff is said to be especially interested in the All-American and Pac-12 Player of the Year's intriguing combination of current productivity and future upside at just 19 years old, as well as his potential fit with Cade Cunningham thanks to his ability to shoot coming off screens and his prowess operating in the open court. NBA teams say they will also be monitoring the Pistons' plans for Jerami Grant, who is entering the final year of his contract and may be on the move as early as draft night.
38. Spurs (via Lakers) - Caleb Houstan
46. Pistons (via Nets) - Ryan Rollins, SG, Toledo
CBS Sports (first round only, updated 6/21)
1. Orlando - Jabari Smith
2. OKC - Chet Holmgren
3. Houston - Paolo Banquero
4. Sacramento - Jaden Ivey
5. Detroit - Bennedict Mathurin
Who the Pistons will take with this pick is a mystery, so I'll go with the highest player left on my board in Mathurin. He's reportedly blown away teams in workouts and in interviews, and to me he has All-Star upside given his shooting ability, defensive versatility and motor. I've been in love with Mathurin since before he decided to return to Arizona last year, and he'll be a perfect complement to Cade Cunningham in Detroit.
The Ringer (first round only, updated 6/21)
1. Orlando - Jabari Smith
2. OKC - Chet Holmgren
3. Houston - Paolo Banquero
4. Sacramento - Jaden Ivey
5. Detroit - Bennedict Mathurin
I had Ivey as the choice here in my last mock. If he’s off the board, Mathurin is the next logical choice as a ball handler who can thrive alongside Cade Cunningham. Mathurin was a bucket-getter using off-ball actions before taking on more of a primary role as a sophomore. That indicates he can share the ball with Cunningham, who is as versatile as they come. I reported last week that the Pistons are interested in Cavaliers restricted free agent Collin Sexton. But the draft could fill their backcourt needs. There’s a defensive mentality being instilled in Detroit with Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, and others setting the tone on a nightly basis. Effort isn’t an issue for Mathurin. It’s technique, something that can be learned. For Cunningham to reach his greatest heights, it’ll be by sharing the ball with others. Mathurin could be the ideal choice.
NBAdraft.net (updated 6/21)
1. Orlando - Jabari Smith
2. OKC - Chet Holmgren
3. Houston - Paolo Banquero
4. Sacramento - Jaden Ivey
5. Detroit - Keegan Murray
35. Orlando - Caleb Houstan
46. Detroit - Peyton Watson, SG/SF, UCLA
Sporting News (updated 6/21)
1. Orlando - Jabari Smith
2. OKC - Chet Holmgren
3. Houston - Paolo Banquero
4. Sacramento - Jaden Ivey
5. Detroit - Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky
The Pistons dropped to No. 5 as a result of the draft lottery but it puts them in line to shore up their backcourt of the future in Sharpe and Cade Cunningham. Sharpe is a bit of a mystery man after declaring for the draft without playing a single game for Kentucky, but his elite scoring ability and leaping athleticism are a match made in heaven next to a playmaker of Cunningham's caliber. Sharpe fills the void for a shot-creator in Detroit to round out an impressive and young offensive trio alongside Cunningham and sharpshooter Saddiq Bey.
33. Toronto - Caleb Houstan
46. Detroit - Michael Foster, F, G League Ignite
58. Pacers - Moussa Diabate
Yahoo Sports (updated 6/20)
1. Orlando - Jabari Smith
2. OKC - Chet Holmgren
3. Houston - Paolo Banquero
4. Sacramento - Jaden Ivey
5. Detroit - Keegan Murray
30. Denver - Caleb Houstan
Houston has a ton of NBA upside and is a lights-out shooter, even if it wasn't put on full display during his one year at Michigan. Teams in the first round love his size and the way he can shoot over the defense with ease. He's not as athletic as other players his size but is far from a defensive liability.
46. Detroit - JD Davison, G, Alabama
Davison is an extremely athletic guard who gets into the lane with ease and has improved his outside jump shot during the pre-draft process. The 6-foot-2 guard averaged 8.5 points and 4.3 assists off the bench at Alabama.
56. Washington - Moussa Diabate
Diabate was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and didn't get many minutes to showcase his talent during his one year at Michigan. He's an athletic big who runs the floor well and can be productive after a couple of years of development at the NBA level.
Great post!
I commented on the diary post, but look up the article on the athletic. Brutal review of both our guys. Says they both needed school. Came from anonymous scouts.
The Chronicles of Houstan and Diabate has got to be the most disappointing story in recent M hoops memory. Maybe McGary is a close second. I hate to be so reactive to one bad experience with the One-and-Done thing, but at this point I’m 100% for guys who’ll stick around 2-3 years. Last year sucked.
Last year sucked.
not sure how making it to the sweet 16 sucks
Last year wasn't a fun season. I get that winning 2 games in March is fun, but there are other goals. That team was a long long way from really competing with the teams left. I'm happy they made it, but otherwise, last season was miserable basketball.
We got spoiled watching cold, calculated, consistent, and precise teams under Beilein. We now have players he would never have gotten, doing things, he would have never allowed.
Turnovers, bad rebounding, matador defense, horrific shooting, a ton of standing around on offense.
I enjoy watching good quality basketball and year wasn't it. The good? We split with msu and beat osu. The bad? a lot.
So - its fair to say that when we got 2 top 25 recruits, and something like 5 in the top 100, coupling that with brooks, hunter, et al, would have yielded at least a more fun and more dynamic team than we ended up being. Add in the fact that they never really improved other than the 2 games at the end, and it sucks that we didn't get a mulligan and another try at it with the same guys.
I don't think anyone is mad at the players - just disappointed that they didnt have more impact in their 1 year here, and that they didnt stick around to take that leap to possibly lottery picks and play us deeper into March and to be more competitive in the B10.
I don't know why this is so emotional on both sides - but it will forever be an argument.. just like Rashan Gary's production here.. and many other debates about why/who/expectations/and on and on.
Caleb Houstan shot 35.5% from 3 on the season. That would place him 85th overall in 3 pt shooting %. He would have been around 9th for Freshman in 3 pt shooting %.
He was also a freshman which meant there were really good games when he felt confident against who was defending him, and some ugly games when he was at a physical disadvantage.
This is what I would expect from a freshman shooter, even if he was a 5 start prospect.
People also need to consider the scheme he was playing in. Howard ran an offense which prioritized Brooks, Jones & Dickinson. Two seniors and a big. Houstan still averaged 10 points a game being the 4th option.
Yes, I had visions of Caleb making almost every 3 he shot. That is stupid fandom. The stats say he performed pretty well given his Freshman status
He shot 85th best at the one skill he was suppsoed to be very good at. And, beyond that, he was pretty inadequate at most other skills - defense, rebounding, not turning it over, ball handling.
But this ultimately comes down to expectations vs. results.
You're right that he, for a generic freshman, had an okay season. But dig a little more. He shrunk when the spotlight was on, and tended to be very tentative at times. Howard gave him an insanely long leash to keep playing through some awful funks. So, in the end, he did average a decent amount of points, though with an extremely high # of minutes.
And, with all that, what about what you saw made you think... ready for the NBA? Because i dont think most people are arguing that he was abhorrent and should never lacem up again. The argument is... why wouldnt he come back another year and improve his play and his stock?
He was 85th best out of a pool of 1000's. He did that in a pool populated by other shooters who were at the top of their recruiting classes with sometimes up to 4 more years of experience.
There are very few Freshman who lead their team in the biggest moments. Carmelo Anthony stands out. Even Shaquille O'Neal couldn't lead LSU to a Final Four as a freshman and he had Stanley Roberts & Chris Jackson on that team.
The problem is fan expectations are not driven by reality. It doesn't matter what I saw in Caleb Houstan. The reality is NBA scouts and executives seem to think he is ready.
This is absolutely true, it's the scouts. That's why these mocks are bumpkis, especially in the second round.
Doesn't matter what we think either, but it's still fun. Even though I suspect Caleb will go straight to the G-league and Moussa has better long term potential, all it takes is an OKC scout to think he's worthy of a second rounder and Moussa to go undrafted.
Where are you seeing 85th? ie. 85th out of what?
Regardless, it's an advantage to not be the first or second or third option when you can be a low usage guy and your only job is to sit in the corner and shoot.
In that role, Zak Irvin shot 42.5% as a freshman. Zak Irvin! You know what happened when he had to actually do something later in his career. It's not that hard to sit in a corner and shoot open shots if you're supposed to be an elite shooter.
Freshman Nik Stauskas shot 44% in that role.
It's ok but not at all what you'd expect from a five star supposed sharp shooter who wasn't being asked to do anything else.
When it comes to scoring lots of points (which Caleb’s lack of is what many complain about), being the fourth option is not an advantage.
If you think Caleb was asked to do nothing but stand in the corner and shoot, I have no idea what games you were watching. As the year progressed he was asked to be one of the primary rebounders and he also became a defender who was not a liability unless he was significantly out muscled.
Compare Houston and Irvin’s Freshman year a little more comprehensively. All stats per game:
Irvin:
points: 6.7
rebounds: 1.3
assists: 0.4
steals: 0.2
blocks: 0.1
3 pt %: .425
2 pt %: .460
FT %: .714
turnovers: 0.4
Houston:
points: 10.1
rebounds: 4.0
assists: 1.4
steals: 0.7
blocks: 0.2
3 pt %: .355
2 pt %: .426
FT %: .783
turnovers: 1.5
Zak was ranked #28 overall as a recruit by 247. Caleb was ranked #11 overall by 247. Did Caleb really perform so much worse than Zak compared to their rankings, or did you, for some reason, have out of whack expectations for one but not the other?
While some of this is fair, it's interesting how Beilein's last couple years - after he decided to hire a defense first assistant and shifted his recruiting to allow for some defense first players - have caused people to forget about all the matador defense and bad rebounding that occurred for most of his tenure.
Last year's team was in fact, a pretty vintage Beilein team. Really good offense (21st per kenpom - better than five of Beilein's last six offenses and better than all but four Beilein offenses) with a lot of offense first players (Hunter, Houstan, Jones) and a lot of matador defense that saw them in the lower half of the conference defensively - a Beilein staple until his final two years with Yaklich.
youre 100% right - and i was thinking it as i wrote it but then the thought of mor typing got me tired. Beilein's knock forever was the poor defense. But those last few years, it tightened up considerably, the fouling was way down and we didnt beat ourselves.
I guess metrics are metrics - but watching that team play never made me think.. "what a good offensive team". Perhaps that was the case because their defense was so poor, and it put pressure on the offense. But from what I recall, I would watch games and constantly think... can ANYONE score on this team!? Droughts were brutal and at awful times in games...
Yeah, I think we just 1) forget that's part of the game that even elite offenses go through (I remember the slog of a game against OSU in 2013 when we lost 56-53 despite having the #1 offense in the country) and 2) have a bit of revisionist memory when it comes to Beilein teams. We complained about them a lot at the time when we'd go through droughts which again are part of the game.
I think what made this years offense seem worse perhaps was that a lot of the good offense came in the post and off OREBs (best offensive rebounding Michigan team since Tommy Amaker) so that's not the "prettiest" offense but it was an efficient offense.
I am very surprised Diabate isn't higher on these boards. His potential seems so much higher than Houstan's.
Of course, maybe I still haven't fully adjusted to the "EVERYBODY MUST SHOOT THREES" modern NBA.
If you watched the NBA finals, you’ll see they don’t necessarily need to. Robert Williams was a matchup problem on both ends for the Warriors and he can’t shoot 3s. But he was really good at catching the ball and then finishing around the rim off of switches. Diabate was really bad at that at the college level which makes him a pretty risky pick when he also lacks a reliable mid range or 3 pt shot.
Yep. Diabete is a small non-vertical 5 with limited offensive skills. Houstan is a 3.75 that has an aesthetically pleasing shot and the framework of an established position. Pretty easy to turn the dials and knobs a bit and see Houstan in a specific role, whereas Diabate is less clear.
As a 76ers fan, Diabete is giving me strong Nerlens Noel vibes. Nerlens was an athletic mutant coming out of college and was slated to go #1 before his knee injury.
He has carved out a career for himself in the NBA as a defensive specialist, but his offensive game never developed and it has firmly limited his potential.
Nerlens had way more vertical pop though. That's my concern with Diabate - would love to see him just play way more above the rim.
Put him next to Sekou Doumbouya and tell us the difference
Tall twitchy 19 year old guys who can jump high who have no range outside of 8 feet? 12? Dime a dozen. You draft these guys every year in the 2nd round and every 10 years you hope 1 hits. The other 9 are in Europe playing for an Turkish team in 3 years.
Could be me being paranoid but you ever wonder if our guys get advice to go pro from guys out there that want to screw the basketball team? There is hardly any justification for either one of these guys going pro
except that clearly someone in the NBA is willing to pay them to see if it can work out. this year's draft class is incredibly weak in my opinion. The top talent isnt team-changing and the first round seems full of projects and players with big holes in their games. Good year to trade down or out.
Maybe that's a reason for them to go - next year's may be stronger - though, i dont know if that's true.
If they progressed normally in their sophomore year this decision could cost them millions. The NBA team who told them they would take them wasn't saying they should go for Diabate's or Houstan's best interests.
The Athletic ranked their final ranking of the top 100 prospects. Of note:
4. Ivey
5. Mathurin
8. Keegan Murray
21. Malaki Branham
24. EJ Liddell
26. Bryce McGowan
27. Max Christie (???)
46. Caleb Houstan
51. Trevion Williams
57. Ron Harper Jr
60. Diabate
73. Kofi Cockburn
90. Gabe Brown
If we're gonna shop or lose Grant, I prefer Murray. Killian Hayes was an awful selection, always hurt and underwhelming to say the least. I think Livers is gonna be a really good player, we gave a lot of wings and guards.
We need a guy like Murray the most, IMO.
If you're only focusing on his rookie season then yeah, Killian Hayes was horrible. He made MASSIVE strides in the 2nd half of his 2nd season though. He showed much more confidence driving the ball and running the offense and showed a much improved 3 point shot. Also his defense is already pretty damn good for such a young player. It is still too early to discount him. Keep in mind he was only a teenager coming from France when he was drafted. There was a huge learning curve for him and he needed time to adjust.
If he continues his improvement then I say keep him. If he stagnates or regresses back then absolutely he has to go. It's too early to make that decision now, however.
There's a lot of traction for Sac-town. I think he went to dinner with Sabonis and Fox.
Murray seems soft to me. I'd go with Ivey, who has more upside and fire. I don't think Livers will be anything more than a serviceable bench player.
He comes across like a gentle guy but he does so many things on the court. I think he's going to do well
It seems insane to me that some of these two round mocks don’t have anyone picking up Moussa. If you’re in the mid second round and he’s still there you’d be a fool to pass on his sky high potential
Middle of 2nd means that there are only like 40 players *in the world* who have more potential/likelihood than he does, and C is the roster spot with the fewest count overall. Making the NBA is insanely hard, even more so for a C who isn't above the rim or a shooter.
So I'm ignorant- What happens if Diabate doesn't get drafted? Can he return to Michigan or is that done and he goes and plays in France/G-league whatever...?
He's done and cannot return to Michigan. G-league will snap him up asap or he'll play overseas.
I'm not a basketball expert by any means, but I'll never understand these 2 leaving after this season
It seems if you're a five star recruit...all you have to do is show some flashes in your first year and that's good enough for the NBA.
I think it has more to do with them having a vision in high school of being one and dones. Theyre kids and not able to think well when plans change, like realizing they need more than 1 year of seasoning.
Flashes? I'm thinking a spark or two at most, at least with Houstan
Moussa didn't get many minutes at Michigan? I didn't know that.
As a Pistons fan I'd like Ivey but who in the hell knows who's the best fit? Hopefully the GM does...
Yeah, I read that was was like, ummmm, how do you do a mock draft and know so little? Dude started most of the year and ended up playing 60% of team minutes!!!
Looks like the poor Pistons will likely have to settle for a decent role-player type who won't move the needle much. Their lottery luck really bit them in the ass. They really needed a top 3 pick.
They need more than a top 3 pick. Between the Lions and Pistons, I've learned to roll with the punches over the years - especially with the Lions
I think Ivey and Mathurin (and maybe Murray) have higher upsides than Banchero and maybe Holmgren. I don't think the big 3 are going to end up the best three in this class and I don't think that's even a bold statement. When do the top 3 ever become the best 3?
Agreed, but wish we had pick 4 instead of 5...
I still don’t quite understand how Banchero isn’t the clear 1st overall pick. He’s a 6’10” 250 point forward with an almost flawless offensive skill set. Chet and Jabari are both great prospects but there are obvious questions about Chet’s weight and where he fits in the NBA and Jabari Smith is a glorified catch and shoot player
Almost flawless offensive skill set? Eh, why do you say that?
He was a solid 34% from three, nothing spectacular and significantly worse than Smith and Holmgren. He wasn't exactly a creator away from the block.
But the primary reason he's not #1 is that he does not project to be a great defender. Doesn't have plus NBA length or athleticism. 2.7% block rate for a 6'10 guy is really bad in college.
34% for a guy of his size and creation ability is definitely a solid starting point. He wasn’t exactly a creator away from the block? Dude could get a bucket if you you give it to him anywhere in or around the 3 point line and is an infinitely better creator than either of Chet or Jabari. He may not have the defensive upside of Chet or Jabari, but if you want the sure thing, Banchero is it imo
Chet's feel for the game on D and offense is in another league than Paolo or Jabari.
Yes, 34% is a solid starting point but also not close to what Chet and Smith shot.
And I didn't see that level of creation from anywhere on the court but agree he showed better ability there than Chet or Jabari. Problem is, that's not a skill that's as important for a big as defense and it's a skill that can be developed. Length and athleticism can't be taught and he's not great in either regard.
Jaden Ivey may go at 4, but he is NOT going to Sactown. He won't give them his medicals, workout, or interview with them. Maybe a trade, maybe a sign and trade. But, he's not playing there.
Really hoping for Ivey if one of the clear top-3 inexplicably don’t drop to 5. A dynamic guy who can also allow Cade to occasionally play off ball is a great asset. I think they could quickly become one of the best young backcourts in the league.
It will be interesting to see what they do with Grant (his value is only going to go down) and free agency. Wonder if they possibly over spend for an Ayton or Bridges.