Klatt - The B1G East is the Best Division in College Football
How will it play out?
- UM's OL & run game will bludgeon opponents
- Will OSU's DL hold against the bludgeoning?
- PSU is designed to beat OSU; PSU had no answer for UM last year
- PSU's best hope is for a 3-way, 11-1 tie.
- Tiebreak scenarios
August 16th, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
‘PSU's best hope is for a 3-way, 11-1 tie’
One could quite rationally argue their ‘best hope’ is 12-0.
I like our chances to win a third straight B1G title, which is amazing to think and type.
August 16th, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Frames Janklin has done nothing to show his team is taking any step up from their consistent distant 3rd place status. They are being overhyped once again. I get OSU getting the benefit of the doubt starting a brand new QB, given their receivers, system, track record, but PSU doesn't deserve the same based on their history.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^
You could have said the same exact thing about Harbaugh coming into 2021.
August 16th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Franklin is more than par for the course, and has done an excellent job there. Yes, he is a minor buffoon, but take a step back and look at the body of work at PSU. They were in a bad spot when he came along, and they were lucky to get him.
August 16th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Franklin has lost to Harbaugh by scores of 41-17 (2022), 42-7 (2018) and 49-10 (2016). He's been smoked in three of the eight games. He also lost a couple of times at home. Harbaugh's only home loss in the series was during the Covid year. I'm not sure how lucky PSU is.
August 16th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
Fair point. On one hand he looks decent because he did win 1 BigTen title and has a 78 and 36 record at PSU. He has gotten 10 wins in 4 of 9 seasons. Has 4 seasons with 7 or fewer wins.
But then you look at his record against rivals:
Versus MSU he is 4-5
Versus OSU he is 1-8
Versus Michigan he is 3-6
For fun I looked up Harbaugh to compare:
Harbaugh is 74 and 25 at Michigan. 2 BigTen titles. He is 2-5 vs OSU, 5-3 vs PSU, and 4-3 vs MSU. Has 10 wins or more in 5 of 8 seasons. Notably better than Franklin, but not by a mile. Harbaugh had 1 bad year, Franklin arguably had 4 bad years.
August 16th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
You left out 2 trips to the playoff and a win in Columbus via blowout...which are all extremely difficult accomplishments.
Penn State will never win in Columbus, period, and Harbaugh embarrassed both of Franklin's 2 best teams, 2016, 2022.
August 16th, 2023 at 3:55 PM ^
You're right about Harbaugh embarrassing Franklin's 2 best teams. Don't discount Day to one day lose to PSU in Columbus though!
August 16th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
Before 2021, I thought of Franklin as a slightly lucky Harbaugh. At the time though, I thought Harbaugh underrated, Franklin overrated.
Harbaugh has had 2 EXCELLENT years that changed the calculus. Franklin's 2 best seasons were 2016 and 2017, and they got smoked by Michigan in 2016 yet won the Big Ten. 2017 they lost to OSU. Both years they failed to make the CFP. - 2016 because they got smoked and I think lost to Pitt, 2017 because they lost to MSU as well as PSU. But I think both are properly rated right now - Harbaugh is considered one of the nation's best coaches behind Smart and Saban and probably Dabo, and Franklin is considered a very good coach.
Being a consistent top 15 program is something we took for granted under Harbaugh - but something that Brady Hoke and Rich Rodriguez couldn't do. Those 2 guys both have done pretty well elsewhere, in lesser leagues. Even at places like Michigan and Penn State, with all our advantages, it isn't easy to be near the top of the Big Ten.
August 16th, 2023 at 8:16 PM ^
That's fair on Franklin.
I have never loved him, but his resuls aren't awful either. I've come around to the theory of "the root of all his issues is in not knowing how to run a steady ship." I have no other explanation for how to square inconsistent things like this:
- In 2016, 2020 and 2022: the team got notably better as the year went on: on-the-field, energy, leadership, the team looking like they were having fun. That's after significant adversity, and with the team having a possible reason to quit. Instead those teams rallied around him and each other.
- HOWEVER --- in 2015, 2018 and 2021: the team got notably worse as the year went on, in all the same facets. That's despite the team still having a good deal to play for. Instead, many players on those teams did quit on him and each other.
- Last year, Franklin's team looked mentally stupid and unconfident for U-M. One of the defensive leaders bodyslams a U-M WR and gets a stupid 15-yard unsportsmanlike on the 1st play of the game! Throwing stuff at halftime, etc.
- HOWEVER --- not to long after, the Rose Bowl and I've never seen a Franklin team so mentally strong and confident in themselves. The Cam Rising injury didn't matter IMO: PSU was sharper from Play 1 and would have won regardless.
- From 2014 to 2020, Franklin had a horrendous record when the team was coming off a straight-up loss. They had a <10% record against-the-spread in those spots. Under 10%! A sign that he didn't rebound week-to-week from resilance well.
- HOWEVER --- in 2021 & 2022, PSU was 5-2 against-the-spread in the same spot. One could argue sample size, but that's still 71% after being under 10%.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
IMO, UM @ PSU will decide the Big Ten and who goes to the playoffs.
August 16th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
I wouldn’t mind them going 11-1 with a loss to 12-0 Michigan and sending OSU to 9-3 when they lose to ND, PSU and UM
August 16th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Baby steps. 10-2 with losses to us and Penn state. A loss to ND would be Xmas came early. Ryan Day would have to take alternate routes to work to avoid the crazies.
August 16th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
I don't want OSU to lose to ND. If they went 9-3, Day might actually get fired. I want John Cooper 2.0 to be around as long as possible.
Also, ND might sneak into the playoff if that happened.
August 16th, 2023 at 4:17 PM ^
I wonder if he's really Cooper though, or if he's a good coach and we'd be lucky they get rid of him. But if you get beat 3 years in a row in the transfer era...that's on you. 2021 they got surprised by a problem we exposed. 2022 their plan to address it didn't work. Both years, their high-powered offense was kept in check. It'd be a bit crazy to get rid of him if they go 9-3 when they know it's a rebuilding year - but also Don Brown probably should've been fired after the game in 2019, and maybe even 2018.
August 16th, 2023 at 7:38 PM ^
I don't think Day is Cooper, for one primary reason:
Cooper had a well-known "Michigan problem." But Cooper also had an "end-of-the-season in general problem." Excluding 1988, Cooper's 1st year when OSU simply wasn't any good at all (4-6-1):
- 1989: Lost to U-M, lost the Bowl Game to Auburn
- 1990: Lost to U-M, was ranked #24 but lost the Bowl Game to unranked Air Force (Air Force!).
- 1991: 6-1 start, loses at home to Iowa to start November, lost to U-M, lost the Bowl Game to a lower-ranked Syracuse.
- 1992: Tie U-M, lost the Bowl Game to a lower-ranked Syracuse.
- 1993: 8-0 start, ties Wisconsin to start November, lost to U-M, beats BYU in the Bowl.
- 1994: Finally beats U-M, then loses the Bowl to Alabama.
- 1995: 11-0, ranked #2, loses to U-M, loses the Bowl to lower-ranked Tennessee.
- 1996: 10-0, ranked #2, loses to U-M, does win the Rose Bowl over ASU (end-of-game drive).
- 1997: Loses to U-M, loses the Bowl to Florida State.
- 1998: 8-0 start, loses at home to MSU to start November, beats U-M and wins the Bowl, but how the hell did they lose to MSU?!?!?!?
- 1999: 0-3 in November, completely missed a Bowl game.
- 2000: 8-2 start, loses to U-M, loses Bowl to South Carolina, finally gets fired.
Add that all-up, Cooper only once (thank you Joe Germaine) had a clean November-January period, even when excluding all those Michigan games!
Ryan Day, meanwhile: right there w/ Clemson in the 2019 CFP, beat them in 2020, beats Utah in the 2021 Rose Bowl, nearly beat UGA last year. No November losses except U-M. No strange B1G losses either: he's 32-0 against B1G teams not named Michigan.
I agree with you --- Day has a "I haven't figured out the Michigan match-up" problem. But he doesn't have Cooper's larger "my teams get worse come November-January" problem.
August 16th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
The week after OSU plays PSU they head to Camp Randall. That will not be a cake walk for them. I can see them losing there as that is a tough place to play especially with a first year starting QB and they should be a little beat up from the PSU game.
August 16th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
I'll be honest, as much as it pains me to do it, I think I'll be rooting for OSU against ND, just like last year. While Day might have been born on third base, I think it's pretty clear that he's still a very good if not great coach, who happens to have had a Michigan problem recently. Hoping that he's going to start flaming out and have everything fall apart for him just doesn't seem realistic.
Now Freeman on the other hand, the jury is still out. Given his recruiting prowess, I think it's more important for us that he flame out. The last thing we need is having to deal with another recruiting juggernaut in the Midwest, and what better way to grab momentum than a win over a top-5 OSU...
August 16th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
OSU having to think about firing a coach that only loses one regular season game a year (Michigan obviously) and losing again in the playoffs while Michigan wins it all is also an amusing situation. Especially if the guy they bring in next is a disaster.
August 16th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
I think it might be better if OSU beats ND since we don't play ND and ND's schedule is easy.
With ND not being on our schedule for a long time we can't finish them off ourselves. We'd be better off if ND crashes and burns.
Assuming we can go 13-0 again, I think it looks better to have PSU 11-1 and OSU 10-2.
August 16th, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
I wouldn’t mind embarrassing Notre Dame in the playoffs.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:07 PM ^
To hell with Notre Dame. I really dislike Ohio State but I respect them. I loathe Notre Dame. Between their expectations of special treatment, outright arrogance that even puts us to shame, the fact that their grads look down on us (I know because I‘ve worked with them and dealt with their petty passive aggressions), and the fact that they are an academic as well athletic rival, there is nothing better than than having a lighting bolt strike them in the ass right before they shake down the thunder from the sky.
August 16th, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Yeah, Klatt is an idiot idk why people repost his garbage
August 16th, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
I like Klatt - he presents knowledgeable views without much homerism.
What I found interesting is the B1G tiebreaker - with a three way at 11-1. If my understanding of the fifth tiebreaker is correct - it could come down to B1G cross division opponent’s combined conference win total. Which would probably favor the Buckeyes based on pre-season predictions.
He’s the only college commenter / analyst I listen to regularly.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:00 AM ^
That's an absurd tiebreaker. The tiebreaker after head-to-head, should be like the world chess championship (before they introduced the stupid blitz playoff they now have). A tie goes to the defending champion. In order to win the championship, you must TAKE the championship from the champion, not tie him for it.
Having said that, PSU isn't packing enough. I suppose they could luck into a victory in 1 of their 2 big games, like they did in 2016. But that seems unlikely. Frames' record in the B1G is 49-30. The idea that he's going 8-1, which he's only done once, and lucked into it in 2016, seems mystical.
August 16th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Chess isn't comparable (IMO) because it's not the same "person." College football teams change 25%+ year-over-year. Why should a team that is "75% the same" get the benefit-of-the-doubt for what some other chunk of people achieved?
Besides, if the "most-predicted 8-1 3-way-tie scenario" comes to be, that would involve a then 7-1 OSU visiting a then 8-0 Michigan in what would be a winner-wins-the-division game (assuming OSUs cross-divisional foes have the best combined record).
"Winner-wins-the-division" ....... if OSU won, that to me sounds like OSU "taking" (or in Ric Flair parlence, "beating the man") the crown, directly beating the reigning champion.
Anyway, there's no good way to break a 3-way tie, but the cross-division record (a proxy for strength of schedule) seems better than any other option.
August 16th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
Yea, I'm joking because my team is the reigning champ. Although we are talking about the 5th tie-breaker here. And the idea that it's the record of the cross division teams is actually even more meaningless than who is the defending champ, IMO.
August 16th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Better get used to absurd tiebreakers regularly coming into play when it's an 18 team conference with no divisions.
August 16th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
The first tie breaker will be average TV views so they can get more ad revenue for the BigTen championship game.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:02 AM ^
Agreed everybody's West opponents are:
U of M - Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska
OSU - Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin
PSU - Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern
Assuming playing Northwestern takes PSU out of it, OSU would have the edge. I would be shocked if Nebraska has a better conference record than Wisconsin.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
I know this… November 18th will be the first time in my life I’ll root for a Husker win. That’s the day Nebraska plays the Badgers in Madison.
Though, if Wisconsin defeats the Bucs … I may not care.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
I don't think OSU beats Wisconsin this year. Road game in a hostile environment against a team that usually fields a tough defense AND now has a competent QB to complement their stud RB? That's a good recipe to beating OSU.
August 16th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Wisconsin is 0-9 against OSU over the last 12 years. That streak includes 2 Top 10, 2 other Top 15, and another Top 25 Badger teams that lost to the Buckeyes.
Past isn't necessarily prelude --- but I think it's optimistic (arguably "wishcasting") to predict Wisconsin beats OSU. OSU has their usual array of top-tier talent, Wisconsin hasn't finished in the Top 25 for 3 straight years, and very good Badger teams haven't beaten OSU lately either.
August 16th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Wisconsin also has a new coach so that stat is irrelevant IMO. I don't think they'll beat the Buckeyes but what the 2014 Badgers did against them has no merit on what this team will do against them.
August 16th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
I agree that the new coach changes things, but honestly I think it makes it even less likely for a Wisconsin win this year. The new coach is changing to an offensive system that the inherited roster was not built for, and that's not a recipe for success against OSU...
August 16th, 2023 at 4:13 PM ^
If Wisconsin beats Ohio Day will not be allowed on the plane.
August 16th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
I like Klatt - he presents knowledgeable views without much homerism.
Whether you like it, agree, or none above, Klatt will increasingly represent the Big Ten's "Gary Danielson" to external fan groups. I think what separates Klatt (other than just being a bar-none 10x better analyst) is that he actually bases his insight on facts and logic. Danielson would, I think to be fair, attempt to do these things as well, he just wasn't nearly as good at it.
But given a similar circumstance of Florida/Urban needing a national voice advocate to get back into the championship, I'd expect Klatt would have probably done the same thing that Danielson did back in the day. Only better.
August 16th, 2023 at 9:27 PM ^
If I’m being honest, I think Klatt is very much like Fox‘s version of Danielson. I happen to like Klatt very much, but I have a pronounced bias and if I were an SEC fan that really followed that conference I would look a little skeptically on Klatt‘s takes and comparisons with the Big Ten if for no other reason than because he is paid to watch the Big Ten intently and may not really spend enough time on the SEC to offer up a knowledgeable analysis on how well teams in the Big Ten hypothetically match up against the SEC. This is to say nothing of the fact that just because of his Fox affiliation he is likely to be a Big Ten cheerleader, though perhaps not to the extent that Danielson was in the bag for the SEC. It will be interesting and ironic to see now that CBS is a Big Ten partner if Danielson changes his tune, drops his SEC shill act, and becomes a Big Ten slappy instead.
August 16th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
I like Klatt too, but have you not heard him talk about Colorado?
Plenty of homerism is on display. Not that I blame him - finding reason to be excited about your team after a decade or two of doldrums must feel amazing. Good for him.
August 16th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
The Colorado reference is fair. Klatt was a QB there - so, that alma mater passion still comes through.
I think he was glad to see something exciting happen in Boulder - Coach Prime’s arrival did that.
I have not heard Klatt say the Buffs will rule the PAC this year or Big 12 next year - he’s definitely jazzed about it.
So, it might be my interpretation - it seems like he feels Colorado has just stepped out of the desert and found an oasis.
August 16th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
Yeah there's a reason Klatt is the top analyst in CFB.
And he's been on the M bandwagon for a couple years now. His "That is a penalty from Mars, You've got to be kidding me!" call on Higdon will be burned in my memory forever because it was probably just the right sentiment in the moment without using curse words on air.
August 16th, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
Rutgers and Indiana, part of the best division in CFB. Of course.
August 16th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Yea, the B1G East is the best division at the top, but the SEC West is the best division top to bottom.
August 16th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
Yes. Northwestern is going to be a juggernaut-one that all those monsters at the top of the West will have to figure out how to get past.
August 16th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
A back of the envelope ranking:
For 2023
Bama, LSU <GAP> Ole Miss Arkansas Auburn A&M MS St
M, OSU, PSU <GAP> Maryland MSU <GAP> IU Rutgers
CFP Era
Bama, LSU <GAP> Auburn, Ole Miss, A&M <GAP> MS St
OSU, M, PSU, MSU <GAP> IU Maryland Rutgers
in the CFP era, M is behind LSU and MSU maybe even with Auburn/Ole Miss, IU likely behind MS St. In 2023, not really sure how the back halves tack up against each other but yea talent alone would figure IU is behind MS St, but the middle tier Big Ten East probably holds up ok against some of the back of the SEC West
August 16th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Hey now, Rutgers is a feature, not a bug.
August 16th, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
August 16th, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
SNL was so frickin funny back then!!
Almost spit out my morning coffee this time 🤪.
Hope all is going well with you 👍
August 16th, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
Coach Sandler and the Badgers are going to upset ohio in Madison.....
that's my prediction and i'm sticking to it.