Ken Pomeroy: Michigan blows
www.kenpom.com
Yikes, kenpom predictions are out. Last year, he predicted Michigan to go 8-10 in conference, and was largely quite accurate when it came to predicting games.
He gives M a 1% chance in Lawrence this weekend. I think our biggest upsets last year were games in which he gave us around a 30% chance (don’tr ecall exactly).
Further, kenpom has going 5-13 in conference, and finishing 11-19, only slightly ahead of where we finished in Beilein’s first year.
Of course his predictions are based on the games already played, and it is pretty tough to argue with him that based on the available data, Michigan is pretty terrible.
So here’s hoping Michigan is much better than their first nine games and we have a chance at the NIT. (I won’t even whisper the other tournament’s name, since the hope of that is so fragile that it will be burst by the slightest disturbance).
December 14th, 2009 at 11:04 AM ^
Why are there so many
Songs about NCAA tournaments
And what's on the other side?
NCAA tourneys are visions
They're only illusions
And tourneys have nothing to hide
So we've been told and some chose to
Believe it
But I know they're wrong wait and see
Someday we'll find it
The NCAA Tournament
The lovers, the dreamers and me
Who said that every wish
Would be heard and answered
When wished on the morning star?
Somebody thought of that
And someone believed it
And look what it's done so far
What's so amazing
That keeps us tourney gazing
What so we think we might see
Someday we'll find it
That NCAA tournament
The lovers the dreamers and me
Have you been half asleep
And have you heard voices
I've heard them calling my name
Are these the sweet sounds that called
The young sailors
I think they're one and the same
I've heard it too many times to ignore it
There's something that I'm supposed to be
Someday we'll find it
The NCAA Tournament
The lovers, the dreamers and me
December 14th, 2009 at 11:12 AM ^
So much for not even whispering the other tournament's name.
December 14th, 2009 at 11:54 AM ^
When will wins suddenly appear,
Every year,
Coach Rod's here?
Just like me,
He wants to be...
a champion too.
The bowls have left us out again,
The Suckeyes represent Big Ten
I hope next year this crap will end for good...
In year three
We're going to be...
Let's Go Blue.
December 14th, 2009 at 11:09 AM ^
I wish I could offer some tangible reason as to why I think the kenpom prediction is wrong...The shooting should come around, but will the weakside defensive help?
December 14th, 2009 at 11:18 AM ^
Does that help?
December 14th, 2009 at 11:20 AM ^
I'm willing to go with that.
December 14th, 2009 at 11:38 AM ^
For the first time probably ever, Michigan fans mentally checked out from football and started getting giddy about the basketball season and our preseason ranking. Now it's a few weeks in and it looks like all hope is lost.
Things are getting so bad I spent more time watching Ladder 49 on TNT than I did watching the Michigan-Detroit game Sunday. I should probably be banned from MgoBlog for that statement, but the first step in the healing process is admission of guilt.
I still have faith that Beilein can turn it around and we can make a run in the Big Ten. Ohio State is going to be mediocre without Evan Turner, Wisconsin lost to Green Bay, Minnesota doesn't look that great. All of the teams we will be battling with for an above .500 conference record are not world-beaters by any stretch of the imagination. There is still hope, but when all else fails just blame football, it's the cool thing to do nowadays.
December 14th, 2009 at 11:43 AM ^
This is what I worried about. Last years success was a matter of chemistry. I don't think the same chemistry is there this year and thus why we are seeing the team fall flat for the most part. Can things turn around? Sure. But last years great effort put ungodly expectations on this years team.
December 14th, 2009 at 11:45 AM ^
I'm not saying we're made in the shade, but Pomeroy's stats often have little to no predictive value. They're good at quantifying past performance, and are an evaluation tool - but his efforts to predict with them often end in hilarity.
December 14th, 2009 at 9:31 PM ^
you beat me too it, pretty sure that after we lost 5 of 6 last year. Pomeroy had us finishing the conference with 7 wins, that obviously didn't happen.
December 15th, 2009 at 7:42 AM ^
but not so much. The point of Pomeroy is very specifically not to quantify past performace, but instead to be a predictor. Read: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/ratings_explanation/
As for his "hilarious" results:
Yes, Michigan won several games at the end of the year kenpom predicted we would lose. But at the beginning of the Big Ten he had Michigan going 8-10, which was pretty close. Also, he just about nailed the order of the Big Ten.
Come on Chitown: "Lulz, Kenpom's dumb cuz Michigan won 3 games he only gave then a 30% chance to win." You're better than that.
December 14th, 2009 at 11:58 AM ^
Down the stretch last season, this site had us losing most of the games we ended up winning (purdue and minnesota). I wouldn't get too worked up. Based on our body of work so far, it's a fair assessment.
December 14th, 2009 at 12:40 PM ^
I never thought i would miss CJ Lee and David Merritt as much as I do this seaosn
December 14th, 2009 at 1:03 PM ^
...if you think we're going to throw up bricks for an entire season. Um, not likely.
December 14th, 2009 at 1:44 PM ^
Michigan: Ken Pomeroy blows.