J.T. Barrett % of Dropbacks Under Pressure

Submitted by Indonacious on

https://twitter.com/CFBFilmRoom/status/791402157501067264

I was curious so I decided to look up the HAVOC rate (The % of plays in which a defense either recorded a tackle for loss, forced a fumble, or defensed a pass (intercepted or broken up) to see how the above teams compare to us - granted the above graph and havoc rate are measuring different things.

BGSU = 10.3%            Ranked #128
TULSA = 14.9%           Ranked #86
OKLAHOMA = 14.1%  Ranked #95
RUTGERS = 13.7%     Ranked #101
INDIANA = 18.0%        Ranked #30
WISCONSIN = 18.5%  Ranked #29
PENN STATE = 18.8% Ranked #23

MICHIGAN = 25.6% Ranked #1

Cheers, Happy Thursday!

FauxMo

October 27th, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^

"Tonight, on this week's edition of "Random and Obscure Statistics Review," we will look at the percentage of J.T. Barrett's dropback's under pressure. Tomorrow, we review the odds of dying during a lightning strike while vacationing in Fresno in March..." 

OC Alum91

October 27th, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^

Actually, I liked the statistics. The 3 teams that gave him the most pressure (Indiana, Wisconsin, and PSU), were the 3 teams that had the highest ranked defenses (IU, UW, PSU all top 30 defense). Furthermore, OSU performance was poorest in those three games (IU still within 1 touchdown in 4th quarter, UW overtime, and PSU loss). I think OSU won handily in the other games. So the %plays under pressure correlates with the closeness of the game. since we are #1 defence, this bodes well for our chances to win. On a separate note, I would like to know what an average % plays under pressure has been what our game by game breakdown is (for comparison or perspective). The stats back up the observation that if you have a high ranked D, you can get to JT Barrett. One step further, you see that if you can get to him, the score will be closer.

MtP Michigan Man

October 27th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^

the 45 points OSU scored v Oklahoma don't look quite as impressive, when you consider that since that game, they gave up 46 to TCU, 40 to Texas - and 59 to Texas Tech last week!

The upcoming games against Northwestern and Nebraska should be fun to watch.  We are going to get a sense of what JT is made of... 

BeatIt

October 28th, 2016 at 6:25 AM ^

good despite running a predictable offense. i think in the 2nd half he had a stretch  where he was 10/13 passing. if not for the rain osu wr's probably catch a cuple td's that would have opened up the game for the running plays. once again, osu's offense shows how the elements directly effect the production. god help us if it is a cold rainy day in cbus on the 26th, lol it could get ugly rather quickly, lol

FauxMo

October 27th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^

I was kidding. I love statistics. They make up about 75% of my life. In fact, I just got done running my weekly multivariate regression factor analysis model that I use to predict team performance against the spread for this week's games. Yes, I manage to suck allt he fun out of my weekly CFB pool by analyzing data each week. My life is sad... 

FauxMo

October 27th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^

My predictive model says UM wins by 22.6 this weekend. The line in my pool is at UM -23.5. So normally, I would pick MSU to cover and do what my model says. But, um, no. I let my heart  (and a little of my brain) overrule my statistical model this week. Not to mention, that 1-point gap is error-margin-sized, so I feel OK disregarding my model... 

Interestingly, my model points to UM "overperforming" pretty much all year. That is, based on the most important predictors of win margin (rush defense is the strongest, followed by pass offense, then a few others), UM should not be winning its games by 38.7 points (yes, our AVERAGE margin of victory is 38.7 points this year. Let that sink in for a moment). Some of this modeling error is cause by two high-leverage, outlier observations (namely, +60 vs. Hawaii, and +78 vs. Rutgers). But still, Michigan leads the nation in margin of victory, and the next closest team (Washington) is a full 5 points behind. But this points, in my opinion, directly to coaching - great coaches get larger win margins out of normal performances than others... 

Indonacious

October 27th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^

I figured it was just as relevant as posts like...

 

Semi OT: LaCheeserie!!

OT: My New Race Helmet

How great was the 1985 Michigan Defense?

W Swim ranked #1, M Swim #6

MSU Doesn't Release Depth Chart

Bob Wischusen and Brock Huard to Call UM-MSU Game

From Awful Announcing: Josh in Columbus leaves this right here.
OT: Russell Wilson proposes NFL overtime games be decided by kicks. How would you do it?

BassDude138

October 27th, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^

What is also huge is that their OL hasn't been as good as expected. That obviously bodes well in slowing down their playmakers. If the DL can remain healthy going into that game, they should be able to get pressure with the front four, leaving the LB's clean to make plays on Samuel/Webber, as well as anytime that JT manages to get out of the pocket. Of course Brown won't just rush four, so Barrett should see plenty of additional pressure from virtually every other position on the defense.

 

The players, and Brown, have stated that there is still plenty of things that are still being installed, and I am of the belief that there will be plenty of new, exotic things unleashed on OSU since we have been fortunate enough to not need a lot of it thus far. Add to that the fact that Harbaugh and the offensive coordinators are masterful in running an insane amount of formations, with countless options off of each one, and I am feeling more confident in that game than I have in a long time.

LKLIII

October 27th, 2016 at 11:33 AM ^

I'm optimistic this will be the case as well RE: more complex defensive schemes.  However, I'm a bit worried that there's a risk that if this is truly a complex system, at some point we might run into a cognitive ceiling/wall with some of the players.  Earlier in the season we had some busts as 1-2 players had problems w/ the scheme.  Much of that seems to be sorted out now.  But as Brown installs another big chunk of the playbook, I could see us returning to that "bust-prone" phase again if a few of the players have a hard time digesting the full playbook.

It's a risk/reward balance obviously.  Unless you've had your system in for years and have recruited kids with the football smarts to absorb a particularly complex playbook, there will always be a risk of "how much of this can I/do I install before a few of my skilled starters get maxed out on playbook knowledge?"

Space Coyote

October 27th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^

And Barrett is holding onto the ball a bit too long, but I will say, both against Wisconsin and PSU, he found crazy ways to escape pressure that looked like for sure sacks and make plays out of broken situations. Have to be able to finish him off, he's a slippery guy to try to tackle.

blueblue

October 27th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^

I feel good about the fact that OSU's problem of protecting the passer and Barrett's problem of throwing under pressure both seem to be getting worse.

The expectation for this season was that it's a young and talented team that will struggle early be be great down the stretch as they figure it out. Then they were great to start the season against Oklahoma and everyone extrapolated to another Death Star season.

Are they regressing? 

Hard-Baughlls

October 27th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

as the year went on.  THis is generally true for a young team, but they are young across the board, not just in spots.

I think many of these players are seeign snap counts well beyond anything they have seen before and are tiring mentally and physically, ie - because of how loaded OSU was last year, many of these current players only saw 5-10 snaps a game last year.

It's very, very difficult to stay focused for an entire game and then an entire season when you haven't been broken in slowly.  Much like many rookie NFL players hit a wall after 12 games, I wouldn't be surprised if the young guys on the OSU lines are hitting that wall now.

They will be an absolute force next year, however.

maize-blue

October 27th, 2016 at 11:43 AM ^

They may not be the destroyer of worlds a lot of people thought they were. Too many people put stock in the Oklahoma win, who is probably overratted.

Hard-Baughlls

October 27th, 2016 at 12:05 PM ^

Keep negging me, but as I've said all year....before the Wisconsin and PSU games, OSU will be exposed by a defense with a decent D-line.

Add in our athletes and playmakers all over the field to our all-time D-line and we absolute hammer OSU by 17+ in Cbus.

The Meyer gimmick offense only works when an RPO QB can throw accurately 20+ yards downfield (Barrett can't) and the O-line is dominant (it isn't right now) and perhaps they have an all time talent at RB like Elliot (they don't).

I know, I know, Urban has 3 championships, great coach, gets benefit of the doubt etc..., but don't be blind to what's on the field due to prior success.  OSU offensive system is a gimmick that will dominate teams without NFL level talent on the field, but will get exposed by real defenses.

Until Urban finds another Cardale Jones, it will regress towards RR offenses with Denard - awesome until they play a real defense. 

This is why I would take Harbaugh every day of the week and twice on Saturday - the ability to adjust and understand and win under any system. He'll win with his, he'll win with yours.

 

Space Coyote

October 27th, 2016 at 12:15 PM ^

The offense adjusts. Barrett can hit enough deep passes to be effective and can hit RPOs as well. The QB isn't the issue. It's not a gimmick offense anymore than Harbaugh runs a "gimmick" offense. OSU also won a BTT with Braxton Miller running the offense, I think you miss a ton of data points just because Meyer happened to have Tim Tebow for a number of years and then his team got hot with Cardale. His worst team was when he had more of a pure passer at QB.

And yes, you'll get backlash when you indicate OSU will get hammered by Michigan simply because they lost in fairly flukey fashion to PSU on a night where there was a bunch of rain. They lost, it happens, they are not invincible and they seem more vulnerable than expected (actually, the seem about as vulnerable as most expected in the preseason, they just aren't where most people thought after a few games this season). They are also young and will continue to improve and will learn that they can't take opponents lightly as everyone talks up how great they are. But they still have a legit shot to make the CFP, so acting like "I'm write, they are a gimmick and not very good" seems awfully misguided.

Furthermore, to take one of the greatest coaches in the modern football era and basically say he's unable to adapt to the talent he has shows the actual level of insight you have for the game of football. Meyer has drastically altered his offenses to fit his talent at every single stop dating back to Bowling Green. If you think his offense with Tim Tebow was not quite a bit different than his offense with Cardale, then you are wrong. If you think it wasn't very different than the one with Chris Leak, then you're wrong. If you think that wasn't very different than what he did with Miller, or Barrett, or Josh Harris, then you're wrong. Harbaugh is a great coach. I love the way he prepares and I love his system, but you are absolutely wrong about Meyer.

Hard-Baughlls

October 27th, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^

If PSU was a fluke - which the final score was - the lack of offensive production and continuity in that game wasn't.  The OSU defense was solid all game.

Further, if PSU was a fluke, the argument could be made that their win over Wisconsin was a bit flukey.

And not to be a grammar Nazi, but "I'm write" vs. "I'm right" is pretty bad - just saying.

Space Coyote

October 27th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^

For what is clearly a typo when writing quickly. Yes, I know the difference between right and write. Maybe it was a bit of a freudian slip what with the context it was written and the argument you were making.

I also see you went back and corrected your "do" vs. "due" error you had initially before I responded. But, alrighty, keep saying the guy who has run highly successful offenses for 15 seasons, has an overall record of 160-28, and whose worst season is 8-5, has three national titles and 5 conference titles, has managed to have such sustained success with a "gimmick" for an offense.

DenverBuckeye

October 27th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^

I may just be a dumb OSU fan, but if my memory serves right, offense wasn't usually the issue under RR. And JT is a much better overall QB than Denard or any other RR QB's were.