If you want hope, watch OSU-Nebraska tape
Maybe it's OSU playing down to the level of competition, but in this game 7-1 OSU barely beats 3-6 Nebraska. Nebraska's legit defense holds OSU scoreless in the first half, and is down only 6 late in the 4th quarter (due to 2 missed field goals). I don't think they get a sack on Stroud, but they force 2 interceptions. Extended highlights here in case my YouTube embed doesn't work.
Nebraska makes its usual share of unforced errors in this game, but it seems to me that if Michigan can perform as well as Nebraska did here on defense, and our offense lives up to its potential, The Game could be competitive. We know we'll get OSU's best game, but hopefully they'll get ours as well.
What say you, Comrades?
November 24th, 2021 at 8:52 AM ^
Edit -- I meant to say "scoreless in the first quarter" above. Nebraska did end up getting 2 sacks and 5 TFLs in total. OSU gained 405 yards in the air (7.5 YPA) but only 90 on the ground (including sack yardage; 4.3 YPA from the running backs). Here is the ESPN box score.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
OSU also got verrrry lucky to recover the strip sack on their last drive, which would have given Nebraska the ball on the 50 down 6 (they still would have screwed it up because ... this year's Nebraska, but that was a ball bouncing free way outside the pocket).
Whether that game means anything for this week really goes to whether folks are willing to allow themselves to hope, but OSU has not been the fire-breathing death machine they were last week in every game this year.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
OSU has not been the fire-breathing death machine they were last week in every game this year.
For more evidence, watch the Penn State-Ohio State from 3 weeks ago where despite Penn State having no run game and playing on the road with a QB who still wasn't 100%, they stayed close with them for 4 quarters. They were down 17-10 at the half and down 27-24 going into the 4th quarter before being shutout in the final frame. And that includes an unfortunate fumble that Ohio State returned for 6, so Penn State actually could have been tied or had a lead without that.
We actually outscored Ohio State vs Nebby despite our game in Lincoln being at night in a WAY rowdier atmosphere and held Penn State to fewer points ON THE ROAD, no less, with Clifford being in better shape (when the game started).
November 24th, 2021 at 10:56 AM ^
Ok, now do us versus MSU, and them versus MSU. How we looking?
November 24th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
We were on the road at MSU and we are their Superbowl. They played MSU at home and they are not their rival. How we played MSU will not be the same as how we play OSU. If you don't see that and you want to be snarky, don't know what to tell you.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^
You unknowingly made my point.
Michigan is MSUs SuperBowl..
Guess what?
…..Michigan is OSUs Super Bowl.
this is the main reason why gravitating towards their perceived struggles in the Nebraska or penn state games is a fools errand.
Michigan doesn’t need these teams to win. We need to play the best we possibly can against a talented, focused opponent.
Then let the chips fall.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
So ERdoc is Casanova. Good to know. Or maybe you were saying he made your point lower in the thread? Weird place to reply though
November 24th, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
Should probably change your username to:
ERdickLSA2004
November 24th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
MSU was the perfect match up for them. The worst pass d in college football vs the best passing offense.
Stroud was 28/30 mostly picked a play. The receiver was wide open and they got a touchdown.
We are the 7th ranked passing D.
Also Walker (and the refs) beat us. He had 6 carries against OSU.
Any other questions?
November 24th, 2021 at 8:59 AM ^
YES! This game and their close game at home against PSU show that the bucks a very human and not the supermen that they looked like against sparty.
We can take these guys if we play our best and Make Plays!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Leo2gix944&ab_channel=MatthewLovesBall
November 24th, 2021 at 9:06 AM ^
I don’t mean to piss on any parade, but we do this every year.
This is fools gold.
These are college kids its not hard to imagine that a under .500 team (Nebraska) or a team that lost to Illinois the prior week (Penn State) can give OSU a game when they are going through the motions.
It’s a whole different animal when you have their full attention, like Michigan does every year.
We can ABSOLUTELY beat them, but its gonna be on our terms. And has nothing to do with previous third party teams.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
In fairness, I did include these caveats above. BPONE away if that's your jam, Comrade!
November 24th, 2021 at 9:25 AM ^
My apologies, I didn’t see your caveats.
Michigan has advantages that will be instrumental in the upset.
I dont think it’s BPONE as much as I hate using isolated 3rd party contest as a point of reference.
Unless you are going to use them in a common opponent formula.
Mainly because we aren’t the team that struggled in 2nd half of Rutgers or lost to MSU.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
If you want a fancystats scientific analysis, go to Bill Connelly's website. That's not the purpose of my post.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
So Macdonald shouldn't look at the Nebraska game?
I get your point otherwise but everyone looks at 3rd party contests because it is necessary. I think OSU may have picked up the crossing route thing from Indiana.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
Bucks aren't human - they're nuts.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:17 AM ^
I mean you’re not wrong, but we have to remember that OSU always has at least one clunker of a game every year where they play down to their competition and the score is a lot closer than it ought to be.
That never happens with Michigan. Ever. They spent one week preparing for Nebraska. They spend all year preparing for Michigan.
Sorry, pal. Appreciate the optimism and I know what you’re trying to do, but we are getting that team’s best game. They are not going to be as discombobulated on Saturday as they were against Nebraska. I don’t expect them to make many mistakes, if they make any at all.
That’s just not how this rivalry works for them.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:26 AM ^
Ohio State plans all year for The Game, and always brings their best punch. But I do think that the last two games have skewed our memory of how the game goes. Don't forget that an O'Korn led team had the ball back with 2:40 left down 4 (only to throw an interception). Or that we lost in double OT the year prior. We have been in CLOSE games 2 of the last 4, and a lot of the reason for the blowouts was a DC that is no longer here.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
Agreed. The Don Brown stuff has skewed our memory of how these games go. Again, a blowout loss wouldn't surprise me, but there is reason for hope.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
The Don Brown stuff has skewed our memory of how these games go
Not only that, but even those games where we've been blown out, the score at halftime of the 2018 game was only 24-19 (1 score!!) and the 2019 game was 28-16 (we made a lot mistakes in the first half of that one). At our worst, we still tend to play Ohio State close for a half before they adjust to something and our wheels falls off. But sometimes (2017, 2016) we manage to not totally implode and actually stay competitive.
Hell, people also forget that we went into halftime against fucking Alabama with the lead in the 2019 bowl game (where Shea couldn't hit the broadside of a barn in the 2nd half). That same Alabama team torched Ohio State in the National Title game just 1 year later
November 24th, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^
Ah yes, the Don Brown scapegoat. He’s obviously the reason these losses were such blowouts. Not because OSUs motivation to destroy us has been at an all time high. Not because we’ve had an impotent offense that has previously kept the D on the field for way too long. Certainly not JH…..good thing brown is gone. We can still blame him for the MSU loss though right?
November 24th, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
You would know all about impotence.l
November 24th, 2021 at 9:42 AM ^
I think Michigan was not ready mentally in 18, 19. The frame of mind is different this year.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:18 AM ^
I'm not a fan of blaming Don Brown for the blowouts in 2018 and 2019. He was here as well in 2016 and 2017 when we held OSU in check. The difference is that Ryan Day showed up in 2017 but still had JT Barrett as the QB that year. Starting in 2018, Day has been able to implement what he truly wants to do with a QB that is able to execute it and DB wasn't able to adjust accordingly to slow that down as much as we would have liked. It's fair to criticize perhaps, but not to blame. If we want to play the blame game for 2018 and 2019, then we could just as easily blame players for failing to execute and blame Harbaugh and the offense for not having the ability or scheme to keep up with OSU.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
Don Brown is to blame. He’s like an MLB closer with 1 pitch. Once he lost a couple MPH from his fastball, he was done.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
I think the thing that infuriates me the most is how much OSU fans still hate Michigan fans even through all of this. "I remember the Cooper years, I want SCUX to never win again" etc. and the sheer cockiness and general expectation that a win is coming.
Anytime I make a disparaging comment about OSU, my Illinois grad wife (our real rival) tells me I'm being bitter or stupid and I'm like- this is how OSU fans act about Michigan all the time. I've mostly become apathetic towards them in football because, as they say in Ted Lasso, "It's the hope that kills you".
But just the amount of effort they put into hating Michigan is just so much.
November 24th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
Just my humble opinion, but UM fans routinely talk down to OSU fans (including non-alums, which is a head scratcher). Cooler poopers, mouth breathers, OSU is an inferior school, the state of Ohio sucks, etc. Add in UM players guaranteeing victory, "revenge tour", and "little brother" type comments... It's not difficult to see why OSU dedicates so much energy to beating UM every year. The 90's and the upsets just fueled that fire.
A bit odd to me considering Bo, Harbaugh, Howard, and Woodson all came from Ohio, but that's another conversation.
November 24th, 2021 at 5:00 PM ^
Being completely honest, I dislike you guys more than ever. It used to be about the rivalry, the game. Obviously not every fan is the same, but the typical OSU fan despises Michigan and wants to beat the ever-loving crap out of you. It used to be the same the other way from your base. But there was a mutual respect in some weird way. You'd think the past few decades would have humbled you guys a bit, but It's evolved into crying about online classes, bagmen and referees. Then there's the talking down, the disparaging comments about Ohioans, the played out cooler pooper comments, the inferior education comments, and on and on. Even the stupid "Ohio" crap annoys the hell out of me. Then there's the delusion, oh the delusion. I get that you have had to grasp for something when there's nothing you can really say football wise, but your fans have taken it to crazy heights. Your comment implies that you're surprised that OSU fans would continue to despise you even after all of the OSU ass-kickings? It's because you guys have made it easy to continue despising you.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
I guess it is encouraging: we barely beat Nebraska too.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
they seemed to be more dominating over Nebraska than we did.
According to ESPN prediction model, their likelihood of winning never dropped below 65%
According to the same prediction model, we were in danger of losing as Nebraska had the advantage a number of times in the 2nd half....and if memory serves correctly, we were down going in to the 4th quarter.
While I am not a believer in transitive property relating to Football, we probably should stay quiet on this, and on the MSU thing.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
I do think there's something with night games helping for the home team to give it their best shot. They win the Michigan game, they can still turn their season around. After they lost, went on to lose to Minny etc.
Not saying it's not true- but I also felt we were a few missed opportunities early from putting the game away.
Caveat- I'm a huge homer
November 24th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
they seemed to be more dominating over Nebraska than we did.
According to ESPN prediction model, their likelihood of winning never dropped below 65%
According to the same prediction model, we were in danger of losing as Nebraska had the advantage a number of times in the 2nd half....and if memory serves correctly, we were down going in to the 4th quarter.
While I am not a believer in transitive property relating to Football, we probably should stay quiet on this, and on the MSU thing.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
Nebraska is a lot better than their record. That team can beat anyone - they're extremely dangerous. They've just absolutely thrown games away this year - usually through a bonehead mistake by Martinez or a head scratching decision by their coaching staff. Their worst loss was to OSU by 9 points and every other loss was by one score or less.
They could have very well beat both OSU and us. I live in the Delaware OH area and believe me, there were many OSU fans extremely concerned about their game against Nebraska. And keep in mind, Nebraska had the ball with just a couple of minutes left (or thereabouts) against us before Martinez pulled another one of his patented bonehead mistakes with that late fumble
November 24th, 2021 at 9:37 AM ^
Maybe we won't get OSU's best game? That right there is hope enough. Granted they've been playing well against overmatched opponents, but maybe they have a bad game in them with 3 turnovers and 50 yds in penalties. Could happen? Hope springs eternal.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:25 AM ^
I don't know if this is Lucy holding the football or a logical way of thinking. I mean, they have to hav a bad game against us EVENTUALLY, right?
November 24th, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
As others have wisely said, uh...we barely beat Nebraska, too. But that game was weeks ago, an eternity in CFB. Should OSU fans be geeked about our game with Rutgers as evidence they'll beat us as badly as they did MSU?
November 24th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^
The giants beat the patriots in the SB because of pressure on the GOAT. They scored enough, had some luck, made some luck, and managed to disrupt just long enough to find a way to win. That's pros. With college kids, there's much more variance in emotion and performance. There is a way to win and it starts in the trenches on both sides. Run the ball and create havoc on the D line without losing gap integrity (so they run past us).
Also, I had a dream last night that i turned the game on late, and we were down 50-0 with 7 min to go in the 2nd quarter. So... now that that's out of the way, the real game can be the flip.
I wish we didn't have to wait 4 more days - but I'm sure the prep is helping them get healthy and ready. I hope Stroud gets the runs from too much gravy on his turkey.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
We usually have trouble with running quarterbacks. But facing a QB with the runs may work to our advantage.
November 24th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
if stroud runs, we need to punish him for it.
November 24th, 2021 at 6:42 PM ^
I had a dream last night that we scored a TD on a long drive to go up 28-13 early 4th quarter. So we balance each other out. To be fair to Ohio State, even my dream self was stupefied and would not allow this farce of holding OSU to 13 points over three quarters, so the dream quickly ended.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
UM still got Harbaugh. Turtle. Run into a pile and kick field goals. That way he can keep it under a 28 point loss
November 24th, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
Way to contribute to the discussion. Where have you been all my life?
November 24th, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
You would prefer to try and switch our teams identity at this point in the season? We should try to suddenly imitate them? Make our offense more closely resemble theirs? The one THEY practice against every day? You think this would be a smart move for Harbaugh? You think we can out ninja a ninja? Sorry dude. We are who we are and it’s not a ninja. We are a Viking warrior with a big ol club. The ninja will cut us and we will bleed but our only choice is to pummel them with our club. If it doesn’t work then it doesn’t. But we give it our best shot by being who WE are. Not trying to be who THEY are.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
I think the key was that Nebraska made them a little one-dimensional -- the run game wasn't working. If UM can do that -- which won't be easy -- yes, Stroud can make mistakes, and the game could be close. I have hope.
On top of that, I think it helps that the MSU game with OSU was a "big game" and that OSU played really well. I don't think that helps them psychologically -- they can't help but be feeling a little puffed up from that performance.
We'll see. Will the tide finally turn?
November 24th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
Why in the world would I WANT hope? What the hell is wrong with you? You sicko.
I'll just live with being pleasantly surprised. No way in the world I'm going in with any of that "h stuff."
Leave that for the players, coaches, fans in the stadium.
Hope is too risky these days. Sorry.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:07 AM ^
*brought to you by Carl's Jr.
November 24th, 2021 at 9:56 AM ^
I watched that game live and agree hope is warranted. Cheers and Happy Thanksgiving.
November 24th, 2021 at 10:02 AM ^
Nebraska also gave us trouble too. They have some talent, a good dline, and a good secondary. I think their DT and CBs are better than ours and I guarantee OSU will play better against UM. When is the last time they has two INTs vs UM?
November 24th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
I think building hope from OSU's past performances vs. other teams is less useful than building hope from UM's past performances vs. other teams. I like Cade's numbers in his last 4: 78/ 119 for 1027 yds, 65.5%, 9TDs 1 INT. I like Edwards in the passing game. I like All, CJ, & Wilson coming on. Hutch and Ojabo must be great. I like Gattis' and MacDonald's growth.
The talent gap is still too big for my liking, but UM has shown things that give me hope much more than OSU's clunkers.