How would Michigan match up with Houston?
ESPN is predicting Michigan vs. Houston in the Sugar Bowl. If this happened, This is ridiculously premature speculation and there is a significantly more important game coming up next week, but since we're fans, we can actually talk about what might happen if we win that game without the team losing focus. I know that the goal is to beat Ohio fergodsakes, but a BCS bowl win in Brady Hoke's first year would also be nothing short of tremendous.
So I'm wondering, how would Michigan match up with Houston? Houston puts up insane passing numbers, but does so against inferior defenses. Michigan has not really been torched through the air since the Notre Dame game, and it seems as if the defense has improved since then. Would Michigan be favored in a matchup with Houston? Is Houston's offense really the best in the country, or is it inflated by playing in Conference USA? Michigan's passing defense is 14th with 184 yards per game. However, Houston's offense is insane. Houston puts up an absurd 447.5 yards per game in the air, which is more than Michigan puts up in total offense. Their total offense is 618 yards per game, with 53.1 PPG. Their quarterback is makes 2010 Denard look like Joe Bauserman, statistically.
How would Michigan match up against Houston? Would you favor us to win?
November 21st, 2011 at 2:07 AM ^
I don't understand how everyone is so enamored with the win over Nebraska. Yes they were ranked and yes we won handily. However, we overlook the fact that they committed inexplicable turnovers and have lost at home against Northwesten. Also, OSU should have beat them if not for an epic meltdown and our offense has not performed against anyone with a servicable defense.
I'm surprised at the number of people here that feel that like the OSU game is a mere formality en route to a possible BCS game. Let's take a step back and realize that NU isn't very good, and we're not exactly dominant ourselves.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^
My counter is that this isn't some amazing OSU team - it is a 6-5 outfit with some distractions on and off the field. UM plays differently at home, and Nebraska probably should have beaten OSU even more had they not sleep-walked through the first half.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:21 AM ^
Coach Hoke wants you to stay focused on Ohio this week.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:23 AM ^
idk man, it'll be interesting. they've got a terrific qb obviously. i'm guessing they spread out 4 and 5 wide most of the time. we had a bit of trouble at the beginning of the year with western's similar style offense. we're a completely different team now.......most importantly, with a much better secondary.
i mean, what, we've got floyd, countess, woolfolk (if needed), avery, taylor at corner. then kovacs and gordon/woolfolk at safety. those guys have all gotten a lot better. as have ryan and beyer coming off the edge.
plus, we can control the clock much better with our running game then, against houston's d especially i'd suspect.
could be a very dangerous game, but one i think we'd probably be able to win.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:26 AM ^
I'm sure Mattison can come up with some very confusing packages.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:28 AM ^
Blitz and run the ball, jam every receiver at the line on every play. Old school Big Ten them to death
November 21st, 2011 at 10:42 AM ^
November 21st, 2011 at 2:24 AM ^
Hoke has even changed the tide of the rivalry with Houston.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:30 AM ^
Selling hotel rooms in New Orleans is a good start.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:33 AM ^
Remember that colt brennon team? High scoring offense that got smacked right in the mouth!! Well that's what would happen to Houston. Denard will have one of those crazy games he has in the out of conference schedule, and keenam(Misspelling?) won't look so great against mike Martin and co.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:35 AM ^
Can't count an OSU win obviously.
In addition though, Houston is not a lock yet either. They still have to play a decent Tulsa team on the road. Tulsa is 8-3 with losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:34 AM ^
Not certain that Houston will be in a BCS bowl, they play @ Tulsa next. 3 teams have held them to mid 30's in scoring (nearing half of their regular production) and they beat Louisiana Tech by only 1 point. They've also allowed 6 different teams to put up 4 scores on them this season. Tulsa matches up against Houston very well versus the same opponents, and has a pretty ok defense.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:49 AM ^
November 21st, 2011 at 3:00 AM ^
I believe that they had the Big East champion in the Orange Bowl.
Could we please get the Big East champion? Please? I can haz BCS cupcake?
November 21st, 2011 at 3:16 AM ^
I believe Louisville would be the Big East champion if they defeat South Florida on Friday. I went to law school at Louisville, so I guess if we have to play a school with no football tradition, it might as well be them. I'd much rather see us get into a game against a team like Oklahoma or Stanford though.
Edit: Here is an example of why I don't take Louisville Football seriously.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:04 AM ^
Shaking head slowly...
November 21st, 2011 at 8:15 AM ^
If no SEC team is available to be selected, the Sugar Bowl would very likely pick Houston. Houston is driving distance from New Orleans and it's not likely that any other team eligible to be selected would travel to New Orleans nearly as well (save, perhaps, Michigan). The only Big East team that would even come close would be Weat Virginia.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:53 AM ^
I personally hope we get to play an opponent with more cachet than Houston in our bowl game. But if it is Houston, I think UM will dominate. I've watched parts of a couple Houston games this season and while their offense is dangerous, their D is weak. They might hit a few big plays but I don't think Houston would be able to consistently sustain drives against UM's defense. They would have no answer for Denard (or Toussaint, or Hemingway, or...).
November 21st, 2011 at 3:34 AM ^
Saw Michigan play Houston in 2003...50-3. This year we'd win 50-21. I'd rather play any of the five SEC team ranked ahead of us. Frankly, I think SEC underwhelms this bowl season because they've had their tires pumped by the everyone for the last 11 weeks, mostly by association with LSU and 'bama.
BTW, I would love to see Georgia beat LSU in the SEC championship and watch true chaos ensue.
November 21st, 2011 at 7:56 AM ^
Yeah, I agree I think it would be a good year to get an SEC team. It is definitely the most unbalanced I've seen that conference in a while. Outside of the top two, no one is that scary.
November 21st, 2011 at 3:48 AM ^
up against scissors. The rock smashes the scissors just like Martin would smash Keenum.
November 21st, 2011 at 5:11 AM ^
I don't know about Mattison in bowl games. I heard there was this one unranked team that piled up over five hundred yards of total offense against him in 2008...
November 21st, 2011 at 5:48 AM ^
I would imagine that this might be a game where Houston realizes that it needs to schedule better. Michigan by at least a TD or two.
November 21st, 2011 at 5:52 AM ^
I can give a little insight since I'm in Houston and hear about the Cougars constantly. 1st of all, Keenum is legit. You don't lead the NCAA in yards, yards/gm, completion %, TD, and fewest INT for nothing no matter the competition. I doubt he would enjoy quite the success with the amount of pressure we can bring but he is good. Second, their defense is terrible. I mean pitiful. They would not be able to solve Denard or Toussaint at all. This would be a very winnable game but not if we take them lightly. When they have several scoring drives in a game of 10 seconds or less the defense has to stay focused.
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<br>First things first though, BEAT OHIO FERGODSAKES!
November 21st, 2011 at 6:36 AM ^
I kinda would hate that draw. It sucks to have to play a team like that because you're expected to win, so when you do, it's "oh well", but if you don't, then it's "OMG upset!!! Plus a team like Houston will always have a decent chance to win any game with a high-flying offense. Kinda reminds me of the RichRod WV teams that were expected to get their butt kicked in the BCS bowls, but upset Georgia and Oklahoma.
November 21st, 2011 at 6:59 AM ^
Rich Rod's WVU teams and TCU's team last year had moneyball 3-3-5 ninjas as defensive coordinators. Houston, on the other hand, does not have a good defense.
I think of a 3-3-5 defense as a scheme in which a player's effectiveness is inversely proportional to their talent level. It's like a car that breaks down if you put premium fuel in it. It only works if you have players that nobody else wants. If you run it at TCU or WVU, you play moneyball, every recruit turns out to be a sleeper hit and you somehow end up with the best defense in the country out of sheer brilliance. If you run it at U of M, every four star either is a total bust or just leaves. Rich Rod just didn't recruit badly enough to make the 3-3-5 work. Plus we had all of that talent in there already, so the cupboard was full when he got there, and it would take years for him to empty it and fill it with walk-ons and two-stars. Damn Carr players and their good recruiting rankings, gumming up the system..
November 21st, 2011 at 7:57 AM ^
Hey, why is this trolling? I'm not trying to be a troll at all. I was just making a Great Rodriguez Defensive Coaching Malpractice joke. Sorry you all didn't find it funny, but I think it's kind of ironic that the 3-3-5 works amazingly well at schools like TCU and West Virginia who can run it without recruiting many top-ranked defensive players but when Michigan tried to run it with talented guys it didn't turn out too well, and I was just trying to make a joke that maybe a 3-3-5 is predicated on its players not being highly recruited. I didn't say that Rich Rod was filling the defense with walk-ons and two-stars, I was joking that a 3-3-5 would work only if he did to recreate the situation at talent-deficient schools where 3-3-5's manage to thrive, and with all of the highly touted recruits that Carr left him on defense, there was no way that the defense was going to work.
Maybe if you put Rich Rod, Lloyd Carr, Michigan defense, Rodriguez recruiting badly, and 'bare cupboard' into the same joke, you're just asking to get negged, but I wasn't really criticizing Rich Rod or Lloyd Carr.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:25 AM ^
Ahh... fuck it.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:58 AM ^
Your post didn't make sense and wasn't funny. Rodriguez didn't bring his DC from WV. I think coaching has much more to do with success in college football than scheme. If a coach can get everyone to buy in and consistently cover their assignments the defense will be successful no matter what the base defense is.
I didn't neg you. I didn't think it was funny but I didn't think you were tolling either.
November 21st, 2011 at 7:30 AM ^
I don't want to find out. We have nothing to gain from playing Houston. Anybody but Houston, please.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:00 AM ^
We could win a freaking BCS bowl against a top-10, maybe top-5 team. How is that 'nothing to gain'?
November 21st, 2011 at 12:12 PM ^
Nobody will care where they are ranked. The last BCS bowl anybody wants to play in is going to be the one vs. Houston. You're going to get zero respect for beating them. This is so obvious, I can't believe I have to spell it out for you.
November 21st, 2011 at 7:32 AM ^
I think playing Houston in a BCS bowl would be THE best-case scenario for this season. Of course, this is only possible if they beat Ohio, but I digress. Anyway, Houston has played one allegedly tough team and a couple of semi-tough teams. That leaves nine tomato cans.
Houston would keep it close for most of the first half, and Michigan would pull away on depth and superior personnel. Plus, the Houston defense would tire quickly from chasing a healthy Denard, and Michigan could easily hang 35 on them in the second half alone.
This would be a fine way for Brady Hoke to end his first season in Ann Arbor. The visibility might even help Michigan with a few Texas prospects for 2013 and 2014.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:56 AM ^
I care less about hokes first season than this year class of seniors and super seniors, after all they have been through for the team they deserve to be able to show up to reunions and waive around the type of ring that hasn't been won in a decade.
November 21st, 2011 at 7:48 AM ^
will lose at Tulsa this week. Just my opinion.
November 21st, 2011 at 7:53 AM ^
Arkansas or Georgia.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:23 AM ^
I will second that.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:04 AM ^
There's another poster who linked to the Massey Ranking which listed Michigan as the 10th best defense in the country. This is one of those computer rankings, and it seems to be fairly decent. According to it, UM has the 31st ranked offense. As might be expected, Houston has a high ranking for offense, coming in at # 6 but comes in at 122nd in defense. UCLA, by the way, Houston's one notable victory comes in ranked # 63 in offense and 60th in defense.
Here's a link to Massey http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf
If Michigan played Houston 10 times, I expect Michigan would win 9 of those. But a fumble here, an interception there, a few broken plays and Houston could win. Like others have said, not a big upside if we win a game like that, but a huge downside if we were to lose. I would much rather play the 2nd or third best team in the SEC, Big 12, or Pac 12 than Houston.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:17 AM ^
cause no way Case Keenum is making it out of the first half alive.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:12 AM ^
Blake Countess + J.T. Floyd will hold them to half their average passing yards per game.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^
Houston opponents:
Average total defense: 83 (Tulsa, 408)
Average scoring defense: 85 (Utah State, 31)
Highest ranked total: SMU (49)
Highest ranked scoring: SMU/LTU (51)
Michigan opponents:
Average total defense: 47 (TCU, 353)
Average scoring defense: 42 (NC State, 23)
Highest ranked total: MSU (3)
Highest ranked scoring: MSU (5)
November 21st, 2011 at 11:13 AM ^
We can speculate, but the data shows that Houston has played absolutely no one with a defense. UCF is the only team CUSA that has a tough defense and they don't play Houston.
Michigan has the 6th ranked defense in terms of points against. Houston will air it out the entire game and we'll get wise to that strategy quickly. Case Keenum basically has all day to pass. It's unclear how he'll react to constant pressure of a top 10 defense.
November 21st, 2011 at 11:00 AM ^
call holding properly or not
that is the question
November 21st, 2011 at 1:32 PM ^
If you jinxed us I will find you.
December 1st, 2011 at 6:13 AM ^
This is the same Houston team that took down #4 Oklahoma State in Stillwater and then beat Texas Tech and Mississippi State in 2009 except now they are much much better with 3 very good running backs in Charles Sims, Bryce Beal, and Micheal Hayes. Patrick Edwards will totally shred the Michigan seconday as will Sims who catches allot of balls and Tyron Carrier may be the fastet WR in the country. Carrier also runs track and finished #2 in the NCAA 100 and 300 yd dash and he holds the record for Kickoff returns for TD's in a career. Most of all this Houston team has a defense with very good linebackers lead by Marcus McGraw and Sammy Brown who is #2 in the country with 12.5 sacks per game and a the seconday lead by DJ Hayden and Thomas Bates who will run routes better than Michigans recievers.
Houston was beating UCLA 31-14 halfway through the 3rd quarter and this was Keenum first game back from an ACL injury. They avg. 50 points per game and over 600 yards a game which is the most ever by any team in the history of college football. Tulsa is a very good. Houston wrecked tulsa. I expect Houston does the same to Southern Miss.
Michigan will get absoluetly destroyed by #6 Houston.