Hope for the Offense?
There seem to be many problems on offense. Missed assignments, dropped passes, fumbles, etc.
The problems do not belong to any one position although QB appears to be a lightning rod. But, Shea was the top returning QB in the B10 (PFF) and knows how to play the game very well (maybe not great). Harbaugh never named a QB starter in fall camp -- until this year. The coaches described Shea as "lights out" and "clean."
So, maybe the offense is just trying too hard. Maybe they are playing "tight." Let's see if there is any hope looking at other teams:
- 2018 Iowa offense improved after disappointing early in the season:
The offense averaged 311.5 yards per game through the first two competitions, then raised that mark to 462 in the last four games, breaking the 400-mark in each of those games.
The increase in damage has correlated nicely with the performance of quarterback Nate Stanley.
He threw only 1 touchdown in his first two games but tossed 10 in his last two contests, 14 in his last four.
“Any good player is going to work through any challenges he has,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said. “It just looked like he was pressing too much, maybe trying to be too perfect … He’s a guy who is a perfectionist, so I think he’s starting to relax a little bit and just enjoy the game a little bit more. We just got to encourage him a little — you’re a college football player for crying out loud, enjoy it a little bit.”
https://dailyiowan.com/2018/10/14/hawkeye-offense-shows-improvement-halfway-through-season/
- 2016 PSU offense as they switched to Morehead's spread O:
Through four games, Penn State sat at 2-2, fresh off a 49-10 dismantling at Michigan Stadium. This wasn’t what the Nittany Lions expected to be, what the 2016 season was supposed to bring. [Of course, they went on to win the B10]
https://www.michigandaily.com/section/football/2016-penn-state-turnaround-michigan-rest-season
- 2018 Nebraska offense under new Frost system:
Nebraska football absolutely destroyed the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday and it’s safe to say that this offense is at full-effect after a somewhat slow start.
https://kckingdom.com/2018/11/11/nebraska-footballs-offense-keeps-getting-better-better/
Slow starts and transition costs happen. There are lots of other examples of mid-season "turn arounds," but I thought it was interesting just to look at B10 teams that had to get comfortable with a new system or just playing a little looser.
Maybe Shea can get it figured out. Maybe Harbaugh should show all the public trust in the world in the QB and offense.
October 8th, 2019 at 6:03 PM ^
After Illinois, everyone on our schedule is in the top 40 in SP+ defense right now. We will find out if there is hope very, very soon.
October 8th, 2019 at 6:48 PM ^
Yes we will. Big players, make big plays, in big games. We’ll see if we have any Big players!!
October 8th, 2019 at 7:29 PM ^
The flaw in the OP's post is we aren't Iowa, Nebraska or Penn State.
There is a movie called "The Big Short". Has to do with an entire financial industry completely ignoring the signs that the housing market was / is going to fail. But people, to protect their own interests, just put their head in the sand and believed what they wanted because they couldn't believe it could be true. Don't be naive and ignore the clear signs of the last two years and the last 5 games. If "Michigan Football" was a stock...I'd sell my current entire position.
This offense isn't going to get turned around. I'll eat a copy of "The Big Short" if it does. I will continue to root for a victory for Michigan, but I am not going to expect a result other than what every indicator we have seen is telling us.
October 8th, 2019 at 7:53 PM ^
Which leads to my favorite quote. “People tell us who they are, but we ignore them because we want them to be who we want them to be”
October 8th, 2019 at 7:56 PM ^
No one is making bets or saying anything will happen. They're saying it could happen. There is hope. A chance.
And the odds are better than you might think. These are the same players that were good on offense last year. It's not like they're a young or untalented group people are hoping will break out.
Just doing what they did last year would be a big improvement, and would be entirely reasonable.
I don't have any confidence in Gattis and wouldn't bet on a turnaround but I def hope that it clicks for him or that the other coaches (Harbaugh and Warriner) step in to get them at least back to last year levels. The path to fixing it is paved and a pretty straight line.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:08 AM ^
The odds are only better than you think because that's what you want to think. Everything else based in reality says this is a team and offense that has no identity, has a starting QB that hasn't improved since he was a freshman, and a weak stable of running backs. They have no proven method of moving the ball. The only odds of it getting better are the ones rooted in fantasy.
The offense has showed us what it is through six games against marginal competition. You should believe what they've shown you.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:34 PM ^
I don't disagree that this is an offense that has structural issues. They seems to be poorly coached.
But they are talented and that's reality. The suggestion it's a weak stable of RBs is absurd (and also mostly irrelevant because RB is not the problem).
It's not like people are hoping bad players will suddenly get good. They're just hoping that the good players we have start getting put in situations where they can be good. That's at least possible.
Teams with talented players coming off transitions often take some time to click. Michigan in 2015 was this way. PSU in 2016 was this way. MSU in 2013 was this way.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:02 PM ^
I think we need to define the term "get turned around" because I definitely want to see someone eat a book.
October 8th, 2019 at 9:41 PM ^
Ha! Yes...always important to define terms. My definition of turned around is our offense being an explosive dynamic offense. Which it should be considered it has 4 WR's that will get drafted by the NFL. Bell, Collins, Black and DPJ will all get drafted. Period
October 9th, 2019 at 2:00 AM ^
We need something measurable. The eating of a book depends on the details. What measurable, available stats make it "an explosive, dynamic offense"?
October 9th, 2019 at 4:53 AM ^
More than one touchdown in regulation would be a good start.
October 9th, 2019 at 7:22 AM ^
So... we're pushing for two touchdowns in regulation? Because that still doesn't seem like a high bar to be setting for ourselves...
October 9th, 2019 at 9:13 AM ^
He said it would be a good start, not where he wanted to finish.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
How about if the team finishes 10-2?
October 8th, 2019 at 8:22 PM ^
How is the default in credit analogous to three teams turning around their offense mid season ? Hell, the market did eventual improve.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:52 PM ^
This is impressively myopic. Do you know what happened with the housing bubble? The push for regulations that said everyone should be able to buy a house and the builders who were responsible for getting their clients credit and dictating to them what houses were going to cost each year?
You're either phenomenally financially unaware, completely unable to follow the steps which caused the housing market collapse, too young, or an apologist.
October 8th, 2019 at 9:39 PM ^
Wrong. Banks started bundling mortgages and selling them as securities instead of keeping the loans on their own books.
A huge mortgage industry developed and credit standards were lowered because people wanted more and more mortgage backed securities.
The entire housing market collapse was due to greed and nothing more.
October 8th, 2019 at 10:51 PM ^
The Bush administration had a policy of expanding home ownership and that policy certainly helped create an environment where everyone in the chain (lenders, banks, homeowners, pokiticians) had an incentive and opportunity to be greedy. Everyone was a winner until the music stopped.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:47 AM ^
Every administration has a policy of expanding home ownership. The FHA home loan program was started in the 30s, followed by the VA Home loan program was started in the 40s. Fannie Mae was created in 1968, followed by Freddie Mac in 1970. Even the U.S. tax code is designed to expand home ownership.
But the crash didnt happen because people suddenly had too many homes. It crashed because banks were able to get away with selling bundles of mid to low grade mortgages with bogus AAA ratings (since the rating agencies themselves were basically in bed with the banks). It was a ponzi scheme, plain and simple. And like all ponzi schemes, it eventually failed.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:31 AM ^
Correct. Should also be noted that federal programs for getting people with subpar credit into homes wasn't the driving force of the subprime crisis that eventually escalated into the CDO-fueled tire fire. Mortgages stimulated by programs like the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) had far lower default rates than the rest of the subprime market because they weren't structured with so-called "teaser" rates that blew up in a few years, which was the proximal trigger for the wave of defaults that caused the underlying housing bonds to fail (and swallowed the economy with them).
Better to put the blame on the deliberately-defanged regulators at the SEC and Alan Greenspan allowing an asset price bubble to develop because he loved being called "Maestro" when really he was just a crack dealer who wanted to keep giving Wall St. and the sycophantic CNBC talking heads the cheap money they craved.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:33 AM ^
Concise. Articulate. Correct. You must have graduated from Michigan.
October 8th, 2019 at 9:01 PM ^
If it was a stock, selling preseason would have been the smart thing to do
October 8th, 2019 at 9:28 PM ^
That’s a faulty parallelism in so many ways. Why?
1) you are trying to compare an economy, which is this complex machine that involves many unique and independent parts and factors outside of an individual’s actions, to a team that controls its own development and whose success depends on its own talent and execution. The team is not struggling due to an ignorance of a failing outside world they are ignoring.
2) you are assuming, and acting like that assumption is a truth, that the team is ignoring its issues and not trying to improve.
3) Outside factors are inconsistently considered. You state that we shouldn’t look at closest outside examples (other football teams) that have done what we have done (struggled offensively), but that we must look at an irrelevant outside example (real estate folks/homeowner) whose failures were dictated by other irrelevant outside factors.
No, no—let’s make the loose associations between a movie and a football team and ignore the clear associations among football teams that installed new offenses and new OCs.
Sweet Swiss cheeses, that was painful to digest.
We get it, some of you lost all faith and don’t want to see it play out before you make absolute claims. The rhetoric is strong and empty. And you’ll likely be happy if the season plays out in the way that legitimizes your pessimistic, logically fallacious conclusions. Why?
I would rather fight along with the team than to fight against them. Why watch games if you just expect to be disappointed with a “no progression”? To feel better about “being right”?
October 8th, 2019 at 9:50 PM ^
You actually believe that you "fight along with the team". How old are you? Dude...you watch a game. Let me be clear...you 100% aren't fighting along with them. The team has no clue who you are. Harbaugh has no clue who you are. If you are gonna "fight" for something, maybe choose racism, injustice, poverty, etc. No need to "fight" for Michigan. They don't need your fight.
October 8th, 2019 at 10:42 PM ^
You took that way too literally. He didn't mean actually fight. He is not part of the team.
He meant support the team rather than cut it down.
Your response was kind of .... Idiotic.
October 8th, 2019 at 10:36 PM ^
Seriously? The Big Short is about people ignoring historical data and thinking things will just keep going the same direction.
Here, there are many data points that it is just transition costs. Ignore that and keep thinking you know it is headed in the same direction without fail.
What a stupid analogy.
Also, how is the flaw that we are not another Big Ten team?
October 8th, 2019 at 11:43 PM ^
I would sell out of the money October 2020 puts.
October 9th, 2019 at 2:06 AM ^
Please be careful doing that. You will get annihilated if the market wipes out prior to November, 2020.
October 9th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
Prepare thy innards for the indigestible!
October 9th, 2019 at 7:31 AM ^
What's with all the unnecessary commas?
October 8th, 2019 at 7:37 PM ^
There is more evidence that our offense is terrible than there is that they will improve at this point. Every defense with a pulse makes us look terrible. Patterson and the offense require a clean pocket and first reads to be open to move. That won't happen against MSU, PSU, ND, or OSU. It should be against Ill, Mary, & Ind. By my count that's a 7-6 season. Maybe we pull off a win against MSU at home to make it to 8-4, but that won't be easy.
October 8th, 2019 at 7:46 PM ^
I believe as of right now that we face 4 more top 15 defenses (per SP+). That’s a rough stretch to be still figuring it out. I’m hopeful but in the same way I’m hopeful a cop will let me out of ticket - possible but seems like I can only get away with it for so long
October 8th, 2019 at 6:07 PM ^
at least the defense is starting to come around. need a step change in offense to beat PSU and another step change after that to beat O$U.
I think much of the anxiety in the fan base comes from what is happening so far in Columbus.
October 8th, 2019 at 6:20 PM ^
Was Iowa a good team to judge our defense against?
October 8th, 2019 at 6:24 PM ^
Seems like everyone was saying that Iowa was "Wisconsin-light". Well they failed the Wisconsin test and aced the Iowa test. So there's at least some progress in regards to getting pressure and stopping the run
October 8th, 2019 at 7:16 PM ^
The defense aced the Iowa test. The offense got a solid D-
October 8th, 2019 at 7:52 PM ^
UM needs to find a RB who fits this current speed in space system. So far this season the running game has been pathetic.
October 8th, 2019 at 8:04 PM ^
lolwut?
The running game struggles are like 2% on the running backs. This is a rather baffling post.
October 8th, 2019 at 11:43 PM ^
The RBs are facing a gaggle of linebackers every time they get past the line because of other deficiencies in the offense.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:11 AM ^
For starters, they don't have a speed in space system. They have a dudes wandering around system.
October 8th, 2019 at 7:34 PM ^
Edit: misread comment I was replying to, which was asking about the Michigan defense, not offense.
October 8th, 2019 at 7:15 PM ^
McGrone, Dwumfour and D. Hill have clearly helped and didn't play much vs Wisky. I think they are improving overall. Not sure how good Iowa is. I think they will give PSU some trouble this week.
October 8th, 2019 at 7:42 PM ^
Iowa's offense was ranked 30th the week before Michigan.
They're now 55th.
October 8th, 2019 at 7:58 PM ^
Yes. Holding them to 3 points was very impressive. They're not some mac school. They have a decent QB and two NFL tackles.
October 8th, 2019 at 10:54 PM ^
Stanley is projected as a first round NFL pick by some. I know, weird and I don't pretend to get it. But the Giants did take Daniel Jones with their first pick so there's always that.
October 8th, 2019 at 6:09 PM ^
?
I hope we improve. Would be nice the see Shea in the proverbial “zone” athletes reach where everything goes right. I glimmer of Tom Terrific, if you will.
October 8th, 2019 at 6:10 PM ^
(1) This assumes we have a system, and that we have switched to it
(2) It's always nice to remember that doing better is not statistically impossible
October 8th, 2019 at 6:25 PM ^
Sure Shea Patterson was lights out and clean during fall camp... But was he hitting his stride in every way?
October 8th, 2019 at 6:35 PM ^
I heard he was dialed in, going the whole nine yards, bringing the complete package and giving 110%. But was he going the extra mile?
October 8th, 2019 at 6:42 PM ^
I heard he brought his lunch pail to practice. But did he play like a coach’s son?