Harbaugh Team Performance the Week Before Ohio State Games
On the podcast this week, Brian mentioned he figured Michigan wouldn’t beat Maryland quite as badly as every other team we’ve played this year since it’s the week before OSU and we never do super well the week before OSU. I think this is probably true historically, but I wanted to get a feel for how we usually do the week before OSU under Harbaugh. The results:
We only have 1 loss the week before OSU since 2015 for a 6-1 record. That game was 2017 @ Wisconsin and was also the only game we weren’t favored in.
We have covered the spread 3 times and failed to cover 4 times. Pretty random.
We actually usually do better on the road than at home. Playing at home, we’ve never covered under Harbaugh and failed to cover the spread by an average of 15 points. On the road, we’ve covered 3/4 times.
Last year’s Illinois game actually wasn’t the furthest we’ve been from covering the spread in these games. That would be 2018 Indiana, when we were favored by 28 and won 31-20. I legitimately have no memory of this game so I have no further comment.
In general, our average difference from the spread (whether covering or failing to cover) was 14.5 points and the closest we got to the spread was 7.5 points, so we have consistently either underperformed OR overperformed by at least a touchdown. I think that makes sense: the team will either be hyped up to play OSU and beat up on the lesser opponent or will be too focused on the game the next week and play particularly poorly.
Our average margin of victory in these games, removing the one loss, is about 17 points. Last year’s Illinois game was the only game that had a margin of victory of less than 10 points. This probably says more about the quality of opponent than anything.
I’ve attached the table so you can glean any info from it that’d you’d like. What does all this mean? Probably nothing at all! Go Blue.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
This feels like one where the 'vibes' say Michigan will cover. Maryland is in decline (1-4 since the conclusion of September Maryland as usual) meanwhile Michigan is pissed off and determined to prove themselves. I think we'll cover
November 14th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
Maryland would be coming off of 5 consecutive losses if Nebraska could make a FG or have one of their three QBs who played not throw a backbreaking interception.
In short, Maryland, as per usual, sucks.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
The way is clear. Everything they have done this year was to get them to this point. Just win.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Last year's Illinois game shouldn't even be discussed given the weather, the fact HALF the starters on the team were out, and then Blake Corum suffers an injury in the first half w/ Donovan Edwards already out.
The way that game played out had very little to do with "trap game" response or looking past to OSU.
It's already been mentioned here but we've seen this exact schedule setup before in 2021 and that was Donovan's receiving explosion in a game Michigan ultimately won by 41 points.
This team, with this leadership, isn't looking past anyone. Beat Maryland.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Check out Jim Tressel's record the week prior to Michigan:
3 losses
5 close wins (ten points or less)
2 solid wins
November 14th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
The one BIG variable this year is how much the team is galvanized towards a common goal, particularly in the past few weeks. I think that’ll play a big part in this next game, especially if Harbaugh isn’t on the sidelines.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
Our last 3 games are the exact same as the way the 2021 season ended. @ Penn State, @ Maryland, home against OSU.
If you recall two years ago when we went to College Park, we led 24-3 at halftime and went on to win 59-18. In the second half, while already up big, we even did the throwback to AJ Henning on the kickoff, who took it to the house.
I think Brian feels like we always play poorly before OSU because of those Indiana games in 2016 and 2018.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
I think they beat Maryland by 24 if they only pass 3 times in the first half and 2 in the second half, and steamroll them the rest of the game.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
I hope we get a repeat of 2021; same opponent; same stadium; spread is 20.5 this year vs 16 in 2021.........I'm sure this all means SOMETHING
November 14th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
Illinois last year is a game that I will hold in my top-5 most nerve-wrecking games of recent memory (similar to 2015 IU).
It really was a tough game to have before OSU as they were a quality defensive team and ideally we didn't want to put much out there. We sat out Morris, Edwards, Keegan, and Schoonmaker and then lost Blake. Had Blake gotten tackled prior to the injury, we would have had say 2nd and 3 from the red zone and probably go into half 14-3 or at worst 10-3. Instead it was 7-3 and we were forced to play with Stokes, Dunlap, and eventually Gash in the second half without our best TE and 3rd best OL.
I remember after that game feeling more nervous about OSU than I did all year. Partially because of the injury to Blake and not sure on Donovan's status. Also, JJ just looked so uncomfortable all second half.
I will echo the sentiment from a lot in here that I don't think this Maryland game is particularly close at all. We probably won't score 59 like we did in '21 but I'm not sure he will allow 18. 45-13 final.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
2021 disagrees with Brian.
But I probably don't. I'm always nervous about this game because it's so damn easy to overlook it.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
To me, this upcoming Maryland game feels a lot like the 2003 game at Northwestern. That game was:
- The week before a conference-deciding game against an OSU team with insane talent at WR (Santonio Holmes, Michael Jenkins, Chris Gamble, et al.) but a mediocre QB not ready for prime time
- On the road, but in an unintimidating stadium dominated by M fans
- Against a team that had a ~ .500 record, coming off a nice win against a historical power on hard times (Penn State), but ultimately without the athletes to seriously threaten M
In 2003, Michigan defeated Northwestern 41-10, and we chanted "beat Ohio" as the team walked off the field in Evanston. A week later, Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards combined for 4 TD and Michigan blew the doors off Ohio State, 35-21.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
I was worried preseason that Maryland would be a trap game, but given all the suspension drama, that has removed any doubt that we will come out focused and ready to dominate.
November 14th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
Having seen the Terps in every home game this year, I feel like I know how this is going to go--and it's not going to be pretty for the home team.
Maryland can't hang with the Michigan lines on either side of the ball. There might be some offensive fireworks early on, but as the game grinds on it will become one-sided. If you saw Maryland vs Penn St. you'll get the idea.
I don't think the starters will be playing much in the second half unless they need to get some work in to stay sharp.
And Michigan -19 sounds like free money to me (disclaimer: I'm not a bettor).
November 14th, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
We are a great team this year, Maryland is bad, this will look like every non-psu game so far.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:05 AM ^
My question: Do they take out starters early if we're up big? I hope they do.