Harbaugh record vs ranked teams
In the doldrums of the offseason, I recently was thinking about the old narrative (circa 2019) of Harbaugh not showing up in big games and decided to take a look at what his record vs ranked teams looks like now after the past couple seasons of success. I had too much free time so I did it for ranked teams, top 10 teams, and top 5 teams. The "at the time" rankings are based on whatever Wikipedia decides to put in that column on team schedule pages, and "end of season" rankings are based on either the AP poll or the coaches poll (as in, if you were ranked in one of them, it counts as being ranked). I'll also emphasize that this was just me going through Wikipedia and putting it together so there may be errors (please let me know if something seems off) but it should give a pretty accurate idea. Anyway, here's what I found:
Ranked Teams
Ranked at the time overall: 15-19
Ranked at end of season overall: 13-20
Ranked at time at home: 9-5
Ranked at end of season at home: 9-5
Ranked at time on the road: 3-9
Ranked at end of season on the road: 2-10
Ranked at time neutral: 3-5
Ranked at end of season neutral: 2-5
Top 10 Teams
Top 10 at the time overall: 5-13
Top 10 at end of season overall: 5-16
Top 10 at time at home: 4-4
Top 10 at end of season at home: 4-4
Top 10 at time on the road: 1-6
Top 10 at end of season on the road: 1-7
Top 10 at time neutral: 0-3
Top 10 at end of season neutral: 0-5
Top 5 Teams
Top 5 at the time overall: 2-6
Top 5 at end of season overall: 2-7
Top 5 at time at home: 1-1
Top 5 at end of season at home: 1-3
Top 5 at time on the road: 1-3
Top 5 at end of season on the road: 1-2
Top 5 at time neutral: 0-2
Top 5 at end of season neutral: 0-2
Random facts:
- Outside of 2020, Harbaugh has only 2 losses to unranked teams (and 0 at home)
- Similarly, 16/21 non-2020 losses were to teams that finished the season in the top 10
- 4 of our 7 losses to teams that finished top 5 were to Ohio State (and two more were playoff games)
- Michigan had 0 wins versus top 5 teams before beating Ohio State 42-27 in 2021 and 45-23 in 2022
- Michigan is one of only 2 teams that have beaten a top-5-finishing team on the road since in the past 5 seasons (the other was 2019 South Carolina vs Georgia)
- When searching to see when the last time some idiot like me decided to do this, I found this post from early 2020 that serves as an interesting point of comparison: https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/harbaugh%27s-record-against-ranked-and-bowl-games-examination
Major takeaways:
- Probably obvious, but: beating highly ranked teams on the road is hard. Those home/road splits are a bit intense
- Still, an even record at home against top 10 teams isn't bad
- Harbaugh loses almost exclusively to good teams (exceptions: 2020, Kinnick, and that stupid Outback Bowl). I hope in the future he continues to also beat the good teams
- This is also obvious, but whew, those last 2 OSU make these stats look a lot better
I think one of your games is off. You inadvertently gave osu the win instead of Michigan for our game in Columbus in 2016
This program has fundamentally changed since CoVID. Harbaugh finally has the depth to create the Smokin Joe Fraser teams he wants to have. Relentless pieces of steel that just keep coming after you, play upon play. Teams that don't care what you try to do, they just keep coming straight at you to fight, mean as shit, relentless, no sense of their own pain, staring you in the eye, waiting for you break.
The program has fundamentally changed. Although, the issue with the teams thru the 2020 season for me was the fact that they lost to lesser teams. Harbaugh had some highly ranked recruiting classes at the beginning of his tenure and still never managed to get the most out of those players. Those teams seemed to play below their actual talent level. That is what has drastically changed in my eyes. We are beating teams we should beat, playing more disciplined, and guys are more consistently playing up to their talent level and sometimes beyond.
The difference is since the MSU game in 2021 the teams have been able to put equal to slightly lesser talented teams away such as Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State in 2021 and Iowa and Illinois last year.
Also they've eliminated the slow starts and mental mistakes as well that seemed to plague the other teams. You'd blink and we'd be down 2 scores in a lot of those 2017-2020 games.
the issue with the teams thru the 2020 season for me was the fact that they lost to lesser teams.
I'm looking back at the pre-Covid seasons, and I'm not seeing too much of that. Here are all the teams we lost to in 2015-19:
2015 - at Utah (10-3), MSU (12-2), OSU (11-1).
2016 - at Iowa (8-5), at OSU (11-2), vs. FSU (10-3)
2017 - MSU (10-3), at PSU (11-2), at Wisconsin (13-1), OSU (11-2), vs. South Carolina (9-4)
2018 - at ND (12-1), at OSU (13-1), vs. Florida (10-3)
2019 - at Wisconsin (10-4), at PSU (11-2), OSU (13-1), vs. Alabama (11-2)
The only one that clearly stands out as a lesser team is '16 Iowa, and that was a dreaded Night Kinnick (TM) game.
The main patterns I see from those years are 1) losing to OSU, 2) losing bowls, and 3) losing big road games.
I dont think it was so much who they were losing to (OSU, MSU yes) as much as a lot of those losses were "here we go again".
2015: Utah: pass, Harbaugh and Rudock's first games, no one was really shocked. MSU: botched punt formation and botched snap. OSU: Was never even competitive
2016: Iowa: blown lead late. OSU: blown lead late. FSU: blown lead late
2017: MSU: Had O'Korn throwing in a monsoon when Higdon was playing great. PSU: was never competitive. Wisconsin: wasnt really competitive past the 3rd quarter OSU: blown double digit lead SC: Blown double digit lead
2018: ND: was not really competitive and final score makes it look closer than it really was. OSU: not really competitive until OSU fumbled the kickoff right before half and after that the closest we ever got was within 16 points Florida: never competitive
2019: Wisconsin: never competitive, at one point down 35-0. PSU: Got down 21-0 and were not able to overcome OSU: Not competitive after the first quarter. Alabama: Not competitive after halftime
Rudock won some games for us and is probably Michigan’s best qb under Harbaugh. With that being said, he definitely lost the Utah game for us. His overthrows make Joe Milton look like Kyle Boller.
The ND game in 2018 was competitive after the Ambry return. D-Mac did a helluva job getting us back in it. We had a chance to win relatively late.
Chance to win? We were struggling to even attempt to tie, it took us about 5 minutes to run a 2 minute drill.
Very good points. The way in which we lost a lot of these games was extremely frustrating.
my only quibble is that Alabama game was competitive well into the 4th quarter. Bama scored to start the second half but then it was a defensive slog until mid-way thru the 4th - and even then, it was a 12 point game until the last minute when Alabama scored their last TD. Shea missed the deep ball that game, if memory serves right. But we had a long drive that spanned the 3rd and 4th quarters where I thought we'd take the lead until Shea got sacked, and then Bama scored a TD immediately afterwards that took away most hope.
Otherwise, spot on
Good info! Although I think the main pattern to me is losing to MSU. Those losses to me were just so brutal, with the culmination coming in 2020 and 2021 not helping. As discussed before, JH hasn't lost that many games as coach. I'm probably also remembering games that we won, but were much more of a struggle against teams we should have handled. Really nice work with all of this info!
I think the coordinators had a lot to do with those teams falling short as well. It was many things. They're mentally tougher and clearly have more confidence with the success they've had too.
And the outcome of this call would be far more acceptable if the entirety of the game were officiated close to even. The amount of home bias (we will just assume the officials were fallible humans influenced by the environment rather than personally leaning towards OSU) was excessive.
The refs penalizing Harbaugh for unsportsmanlike changed things.
Thank you for doing this.
- Harbaugh loses almost exclusively to good teams (exceptions: 2020, Kinnick, and that stupid Outback Bowl). I hope in the future he continues to also beat the good teams
- how do the numbers break, when we consider M being ranked as well? Or take into account the rank difference?
This is a great question.
Games where both teams are ranked:
M as higher ranked team: 9-7
M as lower ranked team: 5-10
Games where one team is ranked and the other is not:
M unranked, opponent ranked: 1-2
M ranked, opponent unranked: 51-3 (!) (obnoxious fact: 2 of these 3 losses were MSU)
And just for the sake of completion:
Games where neither team was ranked: 8-3
Keep in mind these are "at the time" rankings so it includes some pretty misleading data (such as the 2017 win vs Florida or our 2020 team ever being ranked) but still interesting to see.
Lastly, a dollar to anyone who can guess the only ranked opponent that Harbaugh has beaten with an unranked Michigan team. That one totally slipped my mind
BYU 2015? Weren’t they ranked after they started that season with a Hail Mary winner?
You got it! Third win of the Harbaugh era
That's correct! I only know this because I just watched today's "There are..." post which featured Amara Darboh and his OBJ-esque catch in that game. The announcers' introduction, which showed BYU ranked 22 and Michigan unranked, surprised me.
An honestly not super memorable game that had 2 very memorable moments: that Darboh catch and this mind-bending Deveon Smith run
I still don't know how that play happened.
I really appreciate the "ranked at the end of the season" metric due to the silliness of preseason rankings and their early season impacts. Thanks for this. Well done.
EDIT: The Kinnick game in 2016 is absolutely on UM. They were the superior team and should have won despite the injuries and challenges. However, I would still call an 8-5 Iowa team at Kinnick a "good" team despite not being ranked. IA was ranked 21 going into their bowl loss.
So Michigan needed to fix that 9-7 record. And of course, beat MSU.
As some others have already pointed out, the '21 and '22 teams are playing to their potential and not mindfarting as much.
Here's to it continuing in the future.
the last 2 seasons has definitely reduced the heat on him and he finally proved he can be the coach we thought he could be. Took longer than i hoped but thats fine. For me to consider him an all time great he needs a national championship. All he needs is one and i think he will get one very soon.
National championship is a joke. Some writers vote on who goes to the playoffs. Idk, Bo never won one and it doesn't tarnish his coaching legacy at all.
Yes, Georgia is the clear best team in the country two years running, didn't need espn journalists and some popularity contest playoff selection to see that.
Ok, but if we win a National Championship none of us will be singing this tune. Including, I'm quite sure, you.
I, too, don't put as much stock in the Dr. Pepper Bowl as many do.
HOWEVA, the losses still suck and the sentiment will come across far less as "sour grapes" if we can actually win the damn thing.
So, here's to hoping for an even more brazen and outspoken, truly on-brand Michigan Arrogance dismissal of said glorified exhibition contests once we're on top of the heap.
Na, I mean if we beat ohio and win the conference that's everything to me. It's fun to watch the bowl games but it matters to me about as much as the spring game, which is also fun to watch.
Na, I mean if we beat ohio and win the conference that's everything to me. It's fun to watch the bowl games but it matters to me about as much as the spring game, which is also fun to watch.
Some writers vote on who goes to the playoffs
They use a selection committee, not the polls. How else would you want the four playoff teams to qualify? There’s like 130 teams so any given team doesn’t play about 90% of the rest of FBS.
Basketball does the same thing, just with more teams.
I just wouldn't have a playoff at all. Basketball's a totally different sport of course. Even the ball itself is shaped different!
maquih wrote: "Bo never won [a National Championship] and it doesn't tarnish his coaching legacy at all."
It does for me. And IDGAF how other Michigan fans attempt to rationalize it.
There's a reason Bo Schembechler doesn't show up on any top 5-10 lists of all-time CFB coaches.
Schembechler had at least 10 National Championship caliber Michigan teams in 21 seasons and never managed to win 1.
Multiple years a kicker missed a game-winning FG. Another year, his #1 ranked defense gave up a game-winning drive to lose the game. Another year, a WR dropped a catchable pass that would've iced a game that we ended up losing. There was always something.
National Champions find a way to get the job done. And Schembechler didn't for whatever damn reason.
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maquih wrote: "National championship is a joke."
No, it isn't.
Schembechler couldn't do it and that reflects poorly on him. Was the system back then stupid? Yeah. But he never managed to win every game in a season. So ultimately, that's on him.
There's a reason Bo Schembechler doesn't show up on any top 5-10 lists of all-time CFB coaches.
Again, i dont care. He's the one with a Statue on State Street in Ann Arbor, not Saban or Rockne or Bryant or anyone else. Im a Michigan Football fan, im not an espn presents the national football playoffs fan or whatever. You can disagree and perhaps most Michigan fans do, but I just didn't start believing the national championship became more important or legitimate in 2002 because disney and fox agreed on a national championship committee.
That said, his decision to work with Dr. Anderson certainly does tarnish his legacy. I can't continue to leave that out.
Schembechler had at least 10 National Championship caliber Michigan teams in 21 seasons and never managed to win 1.
I hate talking negative about Bo and very rarely do but this is the Elephant in the room.
You are crazy if you dont think Bo's 5-12 bowl record and no national championships doesnt affect his legacy.
Maybe the NC isn't the end all, be all, but our performances in the playoffs haven't really done much to help JH's post season performance. So maybe we don't beat Georgia in 2022, but the way in which we lost was rather embarassing. And maybe we don't beat Georgia in 2023, but we absolutely should have beaten TCU. So while its great to make the playoffs, you'd still like to see us play our best games there, which we haven't.
Uh, I like to see our best game against ohio, but that's just me personally I guess, you do you.
Cranking up my old-guy energy to agree, hard, with the sentiment that the national championship is a joke (as are the playoffs). I'm old enough to remember when even the AP and the UPI called their season-ending number 1 team the "mythical" national champion, and it was better that way. Back then, there was a recognition that if you finished number 1, it was through a combination of (1) having a very good team AND (2) having a very lucky season where things broke your way in all 3 or 4 games you might conceivably lose. That's still how it works, for the most part, with the playoffs, except we've allowed ABC/ESPN/Fox etc. to drain all of the charm out of the sport (and force the kids to play several more games each season) in the name of a "real" national championship that's no more meaningful than the old poll-driven champions but has ruined the bowl season outside of the playoffs.
In short: grumble grumble, eliminate the playoff, go back to traditional bowl games and mythical national champions, embrace a system in which 20 or so teams can finish the season with a bowl win that feels like something.
This is good stuff. I remember at the end of 2021, when Brian Kelley was leaving ND and the narrative was "he's their winningest coach ever," someone on an ND board pointed out he had like 1 more top ten win than Harbaugh at M in 5 more seasons of coaching at ND. Which is to say, I think before the last 2 years Harbaugh's record was sorta underrated. Even now, looking at those numbers without the context in the random facts section, and it doesn't look great...But actually, it's pretty damn great.
Definitely. Harbaugh came here at just about the toughest time possible. Not only had our program fallen on hard times, but OSU was the defending national champion, MSU was at its best level in 50 years and would go on to make the playoff in 2015, ND had hit its stride under Kelly, and PSU was already a year into its own rebuilding project under Franklin.
In the seven years before Harbaugh, the Michigan program went 46-42 (.523). In Harbaugh's first five years we went 47-18 (.723), not far off our historical norm.
The problem was just getting over the OSU hump. They didn't do us any favors by staying a playoff contender every single year. We had to get to their level, which was not a simple thing to do.
Being a very good team is hard, and means you win all the games you are supposed to win. Being a great team, means you win the games against the teams you are supposed to AND the teams you are supposed to lose, or is a toss up. Michigan lost some brutal tossups early in his HC career at Michigan. Lately he has won those. I like the trajectory. This year is set up to be fun. He deserves it if he wins it all for sure.
I was actually thinking about this last night, how M fared in close games before 2021. 2016 was brutally unlucky. The Iowa game was on us, but even so we lost 3 game by 2 regulation points and 2 of them were to top 5 teams. 9 of our 10 wins were by more than a TD, 8 by double digits with the 9th only by single because of a literal last second TD. And the tenth win was close but not exactly a nailbiter - the 14-7 win over Top 10 Wisconsin.
The rest of the pre 2021 years tho? We were 2-1 in nailbiters in 2015 (GL stand for the Jug, OT against IU, and you remember that MSU game), with a fourth where we lost by a TD but never led. (Utah, the opener) We were 1-2 in close games (<7 pts diff) in 2017, with one L being the bowl game collapse, the other being the rainy MSU game where it was close but we never led after 1Q. our close win was in OT against IU. In 2018 we lost one game by 7 @ND, but never led and for most of the game were down by 2 scores. We also needed a big comeback to beat NW, so 1-1 in close games. in 2019 we lost a close one where we never led to PSU (the Ronnie Bell game), and needed OT to beat Army. 2020 had a close and ugly MSU game and an OT win against RU.
So outside of 2016 - which was brutal - Harbaugh 5-4 in the real nailbiters, and 6-6 in games decided by a TD or less before 2021 (I think the distinction is important, because Maryland in 2022 wasn't a nailbiter but was ultimately a TD difference). In 2021 we were 3-1 in nailbiters (KW3, Erick All, Nebraska and finally...Rutgers, somehow). In 2022 we just blew the doors off everyone but Illinois and TCU - 1-1 in close games, 2-1 in TD or less.
2021 was a bit of karma for 2016. But 2022 was a truly elite squad in a way that even the 2016 team wasn't. Or maybe, FB isn't baseball and 2021 had some close game "clutch" that 2016 didn't. I'm not sure.
Yeah - it, uh, hasn't been great. Looking at those stats I thought to myself 'yuck'. But then I felt slightly better after reading your synopsis of Harbaugh's record. Before 2021, I think the lack of big wins over quality opponents was really grating on this fanbase. And even in those cases, they were in a ton of those games despite playing poorly. The nature of Michigan's losses under Harbaugh has been really bizarre. They've had some weird injuries in there for a few of those L's but they should probably have a much better record over ranked opponents nonetheless.
It's weird - you can't really fault Harbaugh for losing to some extremely talented Ohio State teams. After all, who else beat them during that time? Almost nobody. But at the same time - he's Harbaugh and Michigan isn't supposed to be just anybody. They're supposed to take down even the most powerful Ohio State teams.
But, I like to think the ship is righted(sp.?) and they will be very successful over the next several seasons (fingers crossed).
It's weird - you can't really fault Harbaugh for losing to some extremely talented Ohio State teams. After all, who else beat them during that time?
Underrated IMO. Harbaugh took the wheel just as a HOF coach (whose name shall not be mentioned out of decency) at OSU was basking in the glory of his recent national championship and their fanbase was enjoying the ramped-up recruiting. (Look at OSU's average player ranking on the 247 composite since Meyer took over. Compare it to ours. You'll wince.)
It's a wonder he was even close in 2016. Didn't stop the media from getting on his ass ("HE NEEDS TO BEAT OSU!!!") immediately ...
Well, 24-3 in the most recent two years does tend to improve morale.
Even better, we went 25-3.
I think Jon Cooper's years spoiled the Michigan fanbase. It's very hard to do 2-10-1 against a national opponent. Then OSU went on a rampage over the next 20 years! Michigan did not/could not put up a fight in a few of those intervening years, and that got us where we are.
2002, 2005, and 2013 could have been different.
OSU also wasn't an elite program for much of the Cooper years. It took him several years to build up their program, and then after a stretch of being really good (1995-98), they slumped again to 6-6 and 8-4 his last two seasons.
Since Urban Meyer's arrival in 2012, they've been an absolute machine. Their worst record since then has been 11-2.
I agree. Under Cooper, OSU wasn't the juggernaut they are now. I think once Jim Tressel came around, the Michigan fanbase expected a bit more fight from OSU, but more or less the same results. OSU gave the fight for sure, and then Meyer took them to a different level.