Harbaugh’s Status After Today - Why Does It Change?

Submitted by Ajcoss on December 16th, 2020 at 8:51 PM

Overall pretty solid day of getting guys committed to sign + add Edwards. I think only the Jennings & Somerville flip. With that said, why are so many people thinking this magically means Harbaugh is staying? I missing something? Lets play the timeline out a bit below.

1. Contract perhaps offered 3 weeks ago, Less pay, smaller buyout, changes to staff.

2. Nothing signed by today (signing day) and risked guys flipping at a high rate. Clearly not a model anyone would do w/o a reason.

3. Warde/JH say they will talk at end of season, which was 12/19 after Iowa. Game canceled, season ended yesterday.

4. Today was signing day, we kept most guys, added Edwards.

Don’t you just think these coaches are just doing their jobs and finishing what they started the best they could? Season ended yesterday, highly doubt any of them were told they are officially out already. What changed since yesterday where most thought it was 50/50? Now I get the impression people feel like it’s 95/5. If anyone knows anything about college sports, college coaches will play the card JH played yesterday, “Committed to Michigan”. You always say this until you or your boss officially say otherwise. Plus, I think most of these recruits know they can get out of this NLI if JH leaves. Not a huge deal. I personally think JH still explores the NFL option come early January. FYI, saw these odds come out today. Top 4 got decent odds. I am still thinking it’s 50/50. Too much has happened from Warde/JH over last few weeks to tell me otherwise. 

  • Lions +200 
  • Jets +300 
  • Chargers +500
  • Bears +750 
  • Jaguars +1200
  • Texans +1500
  • Falcons +2000

 

 

Blue Vet

December 16th, 2020 at 9:42 PM ^

This is important MGoBlogging we're doing. F'rinstance, it's snowing in NYC. That's important here because the snow will probably have some influence on potential recruits for nearby Rutgers, which likely will have a ripple effect on Michigan's recruits.

See, it's crucial stuff that needs to be posted.

Tomorrow: the price of orange juice futures and its impact on speed-in-space.

Joined: 05/08/2012

MGoPoints: 71382

NYC Fan3

December 16th, 2020 at 8:55 PM ^

I would still prefer that Jim places somewhere like the Jets and we get someone new to come in and shake things up.  Win/Win.
 

If true that he is staying along with some offensive coaches, that would be unfortunate.  The offense under him hasn’t done much and seems to be regressing.

Joined: 01/01/2018

MGoPoints: 7613

carolina blue

December 16th, 2020 at 9:08 PM ^

Respectfully disagree. We knew the offense wouldn’t be spectacular. Completely new o line, no Nico, new QB, lots of new receivers. Only definite positive was the RB room.   It’s been hard to gauge, but we saw the scheme and you can see that it was working, just unable to fully execute with newbies and a Fucked up season. 
 

Joined: 02/12/2014

MGoPoints: 30259

NYC Fan3

December 16th, 2020 at 9:12 PM ^

Why was it not great last year then with the 5 star QB, 4 OL draft Picks, 2 NFL wide receivers? 5 star running back?

Always talking about next year with this team.

14 points against Wisconsin

10 points against Iowa

21 against Penn State

27 against Ohio State

Grant it, the 45 against Notre Dame was awesome.

Scoring less than 30 pts against good competition isn’t going to win many games in today’s college football.

Joined: 01/01/2018

MGoPoints: 7613

Mich04-08

December 16th, 2020 at 9:15 PM ^

+1 Anyone notice the great programs don't come up with new excuses every year?

Next year the excuse will be the defensive coordinator needs another year to implement his scheme while pointing to the improved 7-5 record, and then Gattis will be the new scapegoat.

They'll replace him and the following year they'll say the offensive coordinator needs another year to implement his scheme.

Rinse. Wash. Repeat.

Joined: 12/06/2020

MGoPoints: 1711

JFW

December 17th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^

Ever notice the difference between excuses and reasons? 

Ever notice luck plays a factor? 

Ever notice the MgoFans predilection for finding hope in 'creative destruction' and blaming the coach? 

Ever notice that there are like 3-4 teams in the modern era head and shoulders above everyone else, but that we are at the top of the 'everyone else' pile?

Ever notice we go with 3 10 win seasons, 1 9 win season, and 1 8 win season and somehow one losing season equates to 'EXCUSES!' and 'UNACCEPTABLE!' while the previous seasons are just ignored because recency bias is our SOP? 

Ever notice that no matter what we do we have a significant portion of the fan base complaining about 'non modern schemes' 'playcalling' 'speed' 'development' even when we have good winning seasons? 

Ever notice that when we defeat a ranked opponent it's forgotten after the next loss? 

Ever notice that for the first 20 years of this century we've had two successful coaches with an above .700 winning percentage and one of them is with us now, but we still just complain? 

Ever notice our fan base just likes to burn things? 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

bronxblue

December 16th, 2020 at 9:45 PM ^

Part of it comes down to the quality of the defenses they played.  Iowa and Wisconsin they struggled against but those were admittedly early games; they scored 21 against PSU (5 pts above their season average), 39 against IU (15 above their average), 27 against OSU (2nd most that team gave up next to Clemson's 29).  It wasn't a great offense but it got decidedly better as the season progressed.  

I think the offense has to take a major step forward next year for Harbaugh to win back any goodwill fans are willing to give him.  But I also think people sometimes forget that elite defenses can absolutely play a part in the raw totals.  But last year Michigan's offense was ranked 52nd nationally in week 8 and finished the year 21st per SP+.  It got better, and if they can stay healthy and the improvements we saw this year with certain players continues there's reason to believe they'll get closer to a top-20/15 offense, which goes a long way to fixing some of the issues we saw this year.  Expecting that to trounce OSU isn't necessarily realistic but it gives you much more of a puncher's chance than we saw this year.

Joined: 11/22/2008

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Blue Ninja

December 16th, 2020 at 10:30 PM ^

Scoring 27 against OSU, 21 against PSU and pretty much every score UM had last year or this year just won't cut it. We wanna be Alabama, Clemson or OSU? They're all averaging about 46 points this year and for the most part shutting down opponents. UM will have to take GIANT steps in improving the offense to reach those heights. Last year we averaged 31.7, the year before it was 35.2, in 2018 it was 25.2, in 2017 it was 40.3, in 2016 it was 31.4 and in 2015 it was 31.4 PPG. The elite teams all seem to be scoring well north of 40 points especially in the days of high octane offenses. Can UM get to that level? Its possible, but in Harbaugh's track record doubtful unless he has an upperclass team and even then we get blown out by OSU annually. 

Was inexperience and youth an issue this year? Absolutely, but so was running off the presumptive starting QB, putting in the guy who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn for most of the season and then finally finding someone competent and putting him in a situation to get injured. So was running back by committee for much of the season or pulling Haskins against PSU just when he was in his stride. I have little confidence in this coaching staff, especially on the offensive side, to right the ship. On defense there are just as many of not more excuses with depth and inexperience, so if that excuse is good then it should be offered for the defensive staff as well.

Joined: 11/17/2009

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teldar

December 16th, 2020 at 9:39 PM ^

I am. I stopped watching after the MSU debacle. There's no hope until Harbaugh is gone as far as I'm concerned. I have no belief he can make this work. He chased off the only qb on the team who was ready and produced that shit show off a season. No DTs. No CBs. No QBs. Who owns all the problems? The guy making $9M/yr to make this team work. He's failed. Most likely lost the team completely. He needs to go. 

Joined: 07/14/2009

MGoPoints: 8226

Mich04-08

December 16th, 2020 at 9:45 PM ^

Was obvious the players checked out in the games and wouldn't be surprised if they checked out on the Covid protocols as well.

No one is coming to Michigan to escape Rutgers in 3OT and having the coach act like he won the Super Bowl.

Joined: 12/06/2020

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JonnyHintz

December 17th, 2020 at 7:16 AM ^

You were convinced he was ready because he has talented family? That’s weird. I choose to look at what the player actually does, not his family. Not like a WR and RB in the family has anything to do with someone being a good QB anyway.
 

Dylan completed 51% of his passes in college and couldn’t stay healthy. That’s not very convincing. He also just transferred to an FCS school. Did he just want to play for his dad? Or does that mean a lot of good FBS schools weren’t high on him either? We may never know that answer.

Maybe Dylan would have been an upgrade over what we have right now. Nobody knows because he decided to leave. He could have stayed and we would have had the opportunity to see for  ourselves. But nothing he has done previously would convince me he was ready to be the guy. Did we have hope? Sure, just like we do every year with our QB. But thats far from proven or “convincing.”

Joined: 01/11/2015

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WorldwideTJRob

December 16th, 2020 at 10:22 PM ^

When was the scheme working...the offense was bad besides the Rutgers and Minnesota games. And everyone put up points on them. The scheme doesn’t look all that impressive. OSU, Bama, etc. can put up 35+ on a bad day, and scheme receivers open all over the field. Even last year with experience all over the field we were mediocre on that side of the ball.

Joined: 07/05/2010

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MGoBlue96

December 17th, 2020 at 8:19 AM ^

What scheme exactly? You mean the speed in space that materializes once in a blue moon and then otherwise reverts to pounding your head against a wall running up the gut. The Minnesota game was the only one we saw a coherent scheme this year. The reality is in six years the offense has ranged from bad to average under Harbaugh with very little coherence in scheme besides in his first couple of years.

Joined: 12/26/2010

MGoPoints: 26099

Ajcoss

December 16th, 2020 at 9:10 PM ^

People are totally reading the post wrong. Nothing about not being happy or glad lots of the guys signed, I wanted this to happen!! Great for Michigan. I am asking why this just means you think Warde/JH stick to JH as Coach? This has nothing to do with my opinion on who I want, just facts on the situation. 

Joined: 01/04/2017

MGoPoints: 8208

UM85

December 16th, 2020 at 9:38 PM ^

Maybe I am a little pollyannaish here but I just don't believe Harbaugh would've kept the recruits in the fold unless it was all but a done-deal he was coming back.  I could be wrong but love him or hate him, I don't think Harbaugh has it in him to lie to a recruit's face about his intentions 2 weeks in the future.  And if there was real smoke behind the scenes about him truly leaving, the best of the recruits would've fled in droves.

 

Joined: 10/24/2017

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Lakeyale13

December 16th, 2020 at 9:10 PM ^

I am Choking back puke, but I totally agree with Sal Q. Today’s signing essentially proves JH will Be our coach next year. No way those offensive players sign without knowing Harbaugh will be the head coach in 2021. 
 

Harbs is back and entire Defensive side of the ball will replaced with a new coaching staff. 

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