Guessing MBB '16-17 Minutes Distribution
Early guess at next year's rotation/minutes compared to this year.
Guards: Watson and Simpson should push for significant backup roles.
| Guard | 15-16 minutes | 16-17 minutes |
| Walton | 33 | 31 |
| Abdur-Rahkman | 26 | 28 |
| Simpson | - | 16 |
| Watson | - | 5 |
| Dakich | 3* | <1 |
Forwards: Chance a current 5 attempts transition to the 4, but that's never been Beilein's way. Robinson's role should expand unless Dawkins or Chatman make a leap.
| Forward | 15-16 minutes | 16-17 minutes |
| Irvin | 32 | 33 |
| Robinson | 28 | 30 |
| Dawkins | 17 | 12 |
| Chatman | 5* | 4 |
| Wilson or Wagner | - | 1 |
Center: Could go a number of ways depending on player development and imminent attrition, but expect another 3-man rotation once things get settled. Guesses of the moment:
- Doyle steps up. Despite seeming to regress this season, most Beilein bigs improve with experience and Doyle's the only veteran physically suited for Big Ten play.
- Donnal's role decreases. While he's made major strides to become a competant all-around player, physical limitations remain against legit opponents.
- Teske plays. He'll be raw and not strong enough yet, but a 7 foot/240 pound shot-blocker is exactly what Michigan needs.
- Someone has to leave and it's probably either Wagner or Wilson (no info, just a personal guess). Whoever sticks will be used situationally at the 5 while being groomed for a role at the 4 the following year.
- Davis red-shirts before emerging as a fan favorite in '17-18.
| Center | 15-16 minutes | 16-17 minutes |
| Doyle | 13 | 17 |
| Donnal | 19 | 12 |
| Teske | - | 8 |
| Wagner or Wilson | 11* (both) | 3 |
| Davis | - | - |
*Minutes adjusted to account for DNPs.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Over the last 2 years 3 things have gone very very wrong for Michigan, but none of them appear to be a significant liability next season.
1. Health - no guarantees, but also no reason to think any key players will disappear for two years
2. Lack of veteran big men - The sudden departure of McGary and Horford left Michigan with an ugly experience gap at the position they need it most. Donnal will be in year 4 and Doyle in year 3.
3. Recruiting stunk in '14 and '15 (in that Michigan landed almost none of their top targets), but the 16' class doesn't have any late-in-the-cycle filler.
Expect Walton, Irvin, and Robinson's effeciency to improve with more experience and greater clarity in roles. Irvin and MAAR have shown significant improvement. Michigan does need Doyle and Walton to take big steps forward after launguishing in neutral this year.
This is a fringe bubble team this season, next year they will be a lot better.
We said all the same things about this season after last season.
The fact is that players improve most between year 1 and 2. I don't see Donnal, Irvin, and Walton improving much beyond what they are this year. Same for all the sophmores. I think the ceiling for this team is to be a bubble team next year, but likely on the right side of the bubble.
And then LeVert and Albrecht (our two seniors) got injured again. If Walton and Irvin get hurt we'll repeat the same nastiness next year. That is highly unlikely.
This year's team is better than last year's team. Everyone from last year's team will again be back (plus Robinson), so you can expect more improvement.
Irvin has improved a lot each year. Donnal made a huge leap from year 2 to 3. Morgan was FAR better his 5th year than 4th. etc. So yeah, while GENERALLY the biggest leap comes from year 1 to 2, but there's many examples where it comes later.
Why do you think we missed out on all our top targets in the '14 and '15 cycle? You'd think coming off of a title game appearance and an elite 8 coupled with having four guys drafted in the first round we'd have some sort of 'recruiting bump'.
Because we don't pay.
only slight /s
Why only slight /s? That is 100% the reason.
I have no idea, but it was a massive failure. They identified guys, like they always do, and most of them are good players, but for whatever reason they did't land the guys they wanted (with the exception of Chatman).
Maybe they overplayed their hand, but it seems like a combination of poor execution and bad luck.
I am just as appreciative of the job that JB did as the next guy in bringing this program back from nothing to being respectable; we went to the finals and have had quite a few high NBA draft picks. But like a lot of you, I do not know in which direction we are going in, at least in the short term. That finals run & NBA draft should have brought more talent in to be able to sustain this program as a consistent contender, however, it is sadly looking like it was a peak.
I do not know what Warde will do for the longer term, but I just hate MICHIGAN being just respectable. There is no reason why we should not be a MBB power, or at least top-flight program given all that we have to offer.
in recruiting. 2 bad years on the court, due in large part to injury.
How many good to great ones?
Let's talk again after Beilein gets a healthy team next year.
recruiting Detroit better, there's a thought
Take the glasses off. The entire team is a liability. No one is going to drasticly improve. Who this year has improved? Who the previous year has improved? Michigan is the same team next year. Slightly better but hardly at all. Coach B is a average coach who gets average production out of his teams. His stats prove that.
greatly, but given where Donnal WAS last year, that just makes average at best. Doyle meanwhile severely regressed. That being said, given how Simpson is ranked in recruiting, I don't like people just wanna discount his impact potentially
did not improve. He was better at end of last year than he's ever been and that still wasn't great. He was bad early this due to injury and has only recently gotten close to where he was at the end of last year. His conference metrics are slightly worse this year than last year, which should exclude the injury.
He's a second or thrid banana being asked to play the top dog and he's only done it well intermittently. Not sure how that improves next year without another creator on the team. Simpson could be useful but he's not going to play enough for it to matter much.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Belein is getting more out of this team than the sum of its parts, it's just that the parts aren't exactly first rounders this year. Picture Crean or Izzo with this group of players - I highly doubt they'd even be in the bubble conversation.
don't really matter if they aren't good at basketball. We need big men that are good at basketball. Jordan Morgan came in as a freshman and was a huge reason for the unexpected leap that team made and he mostly stayed the same player until his 2pt% shot up in year 5 thanks to an insane offense and PnR game that he merely the beneficiary of.
Morgan was the post anchor for the overacheiving 2012 team that won the big ten as a sophomore.
Then McGary took them to the finals as a freshman.
These things happened because they were good, not experienced. Jmo maximized his athleticism from day one. Unfortunately, so did Doyle.
The one guy who hasn't come close to this athletic potential and our only hope of making a jump next year: DJ Wilson (and possibly Wagner or Chatman, but Wilson seems more capable and athletic.) If Wilson can take that length, athleticism and developing shot and figure out what he's actually doing instead of running around like a puppy dog, he could be an Adrein Payne type four, which would be HUGE in terms of getting Robinson and his severely negative defense off the floor for longer stretches. Wilson is the only hope for a rim protector and the only hope the team has of making a much needed defensive leap.
If Wilson doesn't come around, we're a team with a bunch of 4th year guys that will have maybe marginally improved (3rd to 4th year is the smallest improvement generally), but we lose 14 games of Levert so marginal improvement would be a wash unless one of the 4s turns into a beast. And it's mostly riding on DJ Wilson.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Expecting them to not improve seems exceedingly pessimistic.
What else does the poster have to base his facts on? MIchigan with average talents gets an average team. Michigan with great talent gets a great team.
and gain almost nothing. Hard to see where the improvement comes from, and that's assuming no injuries.
You are aware presumably that people tend to improve with age/experience added. Not all, but most. Beilein's track-record of player development is overwhelmingly positive.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
They have a shot of winning. Michigan beat Indiana over 75% of last game. That damn 2nd quarter though...
And yet outscored Indiana in the second half, and through most of the first half.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Something to talk about. A way to rebel against the system. Many reasons...
1. Bball on the mind
2. Pretty solid chance that people are unduly negative about this team in 24 hours, so I thought I'd get in on some thoughts about next year before the clouds rolled in.
It was not an attempt to call the season over, if that's what you are implying.
Someone has to transfer out or we will need to bring in Tom Crean as a consultant.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Until we recruit better, it really don't matter...
Been saying this for 2 years now.
Beilein's a good enough coach to get some cute upsets with overacheiving players...but this team we have now is exactly what we'll continue to have if we don't recruit better.
I think we can beat Indiana tomorrow, no question about it. We can legitimately beat just about anyone in the country. We could also lose by 25 tomorrow.
The "upset"/"underdog" mentality and talent isn't sustainable over an entire season. Sure you'll win a couple games you probably shouldn't...but you'll lose just as many.
If we want to be what wewere...a Final Four contender, we need more first round NBA talent. Period.
If we want to basically be the cutesy #7-#11 seed that can get 2 wins in the tournament...then we can keep doing what we're doing. We'll have years where we upset someone and make the sweet 16 and we'll have NIT years to match.
I think we should be a top program. Not Duke, UK, MSU, UNC...but that very next tier.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
We're not doing that?
Look at this roster.
I'm sorry, but you don't know the game of basketball if you think this team could be that much better. I don't care if Izzo, Coach K, Self, or Phil Jackson is the coach. This team just isn't that good, period. Beilein is a more than solid coach - but he's got very average talent on his team right now.
If you think this team is underachieving, I feel bad for you.
This team didn't make the NIT last year and it's pretty much the same group that lost to ECU and NJIT last year. A few additions and the certain Beilein summer improvement and this is what we were always going to get. A bubble team. Add a healthy Caris all year and you've got a #7-#9 seed.
This team is pretty much dead on to what it should be.
And like I said, I don't think we should be UK, MSU, Duke or UNC. Those teams are pretty much Championship or bust. But I do think we need to be in the tier below them.
Annual Sweet 16 team that reaches the Final Four on occassion. When the stars align, have a legit shot to win it all. Like Florida. I think we can be like Florida was in the last 10 years under Billy Donovan.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad