General Discussion Re: Michigan basketball
With everything awesome that is happening in Michigan football, to say basketball has taken a back seat is an understatement. After all, Michigan is a football, baseball, and hockey school.
The beginning of Michigan's basketball season has been.... uneven. Flashes of very good basketball have been there, but few and far between. It would be nice to offset that ASU anchor with a quality non-conference win, and the Kentucky and (especially) Virginia games were hard to swallow. Michigan was bubblelicious last year due primarily to a bad non-conference performance, and it looks as though that may be the case this year too.
There is one opportunity left, at Carolina, but that has not gone well, to say the least, the last couple of visits. That would be a huge win for this team, and would put them in a good spot going into the heart of conference play particularly coming off a shockingly brutal beatdown of Minnesota.
A couple of sharp thorns stick out, no doubt. Foremost, we don't have dudes at the point. Llewellyn had been bad, full stop, and I think Dug would have been starting soon anyway, but not having a body to back up the starter there is uncommon, and will be problematic. (Sings "it's too late to apologize" and thinks of Frankie Collins' steal and dunk against CSU last year). I think Kobe is an adequate ball carrier to spell him in different lineup formations, but it is less than ideal.
Other thoughts. Dickinson is a monster but he is the exact same. Bunnies continue to be 50/50 for him and his defense is what it is at this point. Kobe Bufkin is going to be really good. Look out, y'all. Tarris Reed is a very active player on the glass and is fun to watch in a Rodman sort of way. Been a while since Michigan has had that kind of player. Assuming things continue to improve, do we have the roster construction to make a run or is "formatting" going to be our downfall.
#basketballregularandhawktakes
December 13th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
Keys to season: Consistent shooting from range, steady improvement on defense and this team can take off and finish upper middle of Big Ten! Minny beat down was because they shot the lights out. Can't expect that but consistent makes from guys around Dickinson is key
December 13th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
Smitty, if I may add my perspective - what the team needs to do. Consistent & solid guard play, limited turnovers, movement off / without the ball.
I look forward to watching the games over the next few weeks - and, hopefully, my interest won’t shift from football until after January 10th.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
Coached varsity hoops in Michigan for 15 years and loved Johnny B absolutely loved to watch his teams progress from start to finish. I have had a hard time latching my fandom to Michigan hoops because of the struggles at the PG position in a sport that entirely revolves around guard play. I love Hunter Dickinson we may never see another one but man the rent a PG has been tough. Believe Howard will get it right. Going to be a struggle with a true freshman now and I wasn't high on Lewelyn at all.
December 13th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
Juwan better turn around the guard recruiting situation in a hurry. Whether it's from bringing in freshmen or via the portal. It's absurd to have a team in the Big Ten with only 3 scholarship guards, with one being out for the season. But for the rest of this season, get ready for the team being exploited on dribble drives A LOT.
December 13th, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
I’m starting to get the vague notion that Juwan’s staff does not develop shooting ability as well as Beilein did. Players in Beilein’s system all improved as shooters as they progressed in the system. With Juwan, a player’s shooting ability is whatever it is and stays that way. Caleb Houstan, for example, never got better as a shooter as the year went on. Other players under Juwan, it seems to me, remained the same shooter throughout their stay in the program. If they were good, they were good; if they were poor, they were poor. A poor shooter didn’t become good and a good shooter didn’t become great. This is not a knock on Juwan—I absolutely think he’s the right coach for Michigan and he does other things well—and Beilein was renown for developing shooting ability. (Also, I could be full of shit. I haven’t looked at stats to compare Beilein and Juwan teams’ shooting percentages or pored over film or anything. I’m just an asshole with an internet connection and an opinion. I reserve final judgment until the end of the season.)
December 13th, 2022 at 11:53 PM ^
Beilein definitely taught shooting, he even “invented” this ball while at Michigan to teach ball rotation https://kbacoach.com/product/beilein-basketball/
December 13th, 2022 at 3:55 PM ^
Juwan's lack of PG development is the biggest frustration I have with him. When you consider that under Beilein UM went from Darius Morris to Trey Burke to Derrick Walton to Zavier Simpson and then compare that to the 1 year rent-a-PG's of Mike Smith, Davante Jones & Jaelin Llewellyn....it's quite the contrast.
How good would this year's team, the 2021-2022 team and the 2020-2021 team been with any one of those 4 Beilein PG's? Imagine sophomore season Morris or Burke or senior season Walton or Simpson running the show.
December 13th, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^
I think it all comes down to shooting. Everything else looks fine to me. Shoot well, we win enough.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
Maybe It's just me, but in trying to wrap my mind around the portal and easy transfers, my first response to Llew going down is: "Who's available in the portal that we can pick up?" Then I remember we're not quite to the point of mid-season trades or free agency/unsigned players working out at home waiting to be signed like pro sports is.
That being said, I think this team has Round of 16 potential. They're down 4 starters from last season, so they're still in the gel period. They revealed their potential against MN. But, as you mentioned above, PG is the Achilles heel. They'll only go so far as their freshman guard takes them.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^
I don’t see how anyone can think Dug would have been the starter without the injury. All it takes is looking at last year. Jones was bad for the vast majority of the season, the only good game I remember him having was against OSU. Jones is probably slightly better than Jlew and Dug is better than Frankie, but I don’t believe the staff was going to start Dug. Frankie proved in the tournament last year he was better than Jones despite not starting all year.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
Jones had several good games last year before Ohio State. He nearly won the game for Michigan at Illinois singlehandedly. Even when he was not shooting or scoring well early in the season he was an effective distributor and game manager, and was a serviceable on ball defender. I did not see anything from Lew while he was healthy that looked promising. I am not trying to hate on the kid and wish him a speedy recovery but what I saw thus far was not inspiring.
December 13th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
He may have the OSU was the only game that I remembered. Jones also was given a lot of time. He may have played great against Illinois, but his inability to bring the ball up the floor and turnovers cost Michigan the Seton Hall game (along with FTs). I have nothing against either of them and I concede Jones was better, but I think Jlew would have gotten better through the season even if only marginally so and I think he would have been given that opportunity.
December 13th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
I’m pretty much in agreement with you. Didn’t have faith that Juwan was going to give Dug the minutes even though he clearly should. That’s probably why Frankie left, he probably saw it coming even if he was clearly the better option. Not saying Frankie wouldn’t have won the position but he may have lost confidence in the coaching
December 13th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
I cant argue with much of what you wrote. I think our 'flashes of very good basketball' is directly related to when we shoot the ball at a high percentage. That Virginia game, especially 1st half we shot the lights out. Same with the Pitt game. I just don't think this team can win against average to good teams without shooting well.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
PG has been a huge problem for Juwan.
Their evaluations are puzzling. “Small and fast but can’t shoot worth a damn” is not what I would be looking for in a PG. Derrick Waltons should be the floor for this program. Eisley and Martelli should be able to find better prospects, I don’t understand how they end up with Frankie and Dug.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
Certainly an unusual prototype to pursue. Perhaps it has something to do with Dickinson and the inside-out format that will be Michigan's offense until he leaves. But it would seem that a point guard who shoots at a high percentage from deep would be paramount then. With our offense, it we are going with 5'9 point guards go after some Foster Loyer dude who can drain open threes.
December 13th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
I mean I don’t see why it would be worse for Dickinson if his PG were taller and could shoot.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
Juwan's system on offense is very set heavy. Our offense is generally complex (some of the Twitter wonk analysts consider it top 10 most complex in college basketball). Having a PG that is an elite passer and floor general is the goal. Frankie and Dug fit that mold. My frustration has been that we took too long to recruit one, and so now we would've been going on five straight years of having a different starting point guard. Ideally, we would have a veteran stick around like Simpson or Walton. Maybe now with Llewellyn's injury we will see Dug be the starter the remainder of the year and again next year. But even that is no guarantee given Bufkin's emergence and the lure of the transfer portal.
December 13th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
Dug doesn’t seem phased by being thrust into a starting role. In fact he seems to relish it. I expect him to have a very solid 4 year career in Ann Arbor unless he pulls a Frankie on us.
December 13th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
I think so too. I know others (like some of the writers for this site) have pushed for Bufkin to be the starting PG the remainder of the year. And I am sure there will be some temptation to look to the portal again in the off-season, especially if there are enticing veteran PGs on the market.
December 13th, 2022 at 10:39 AM ^
Collins was a 4 star prospect (#7 ranked PG).
Dug was a 4 star prospect (#15 ranked PG).
Walton was a 4 star prospect (#10 ranked PG).
December 13th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Walton can shoot, that was evident on film in HS.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
Also looked way more willing and able to embrace his role as a freshman; facilitator alongside Caris, Nik, and GR III, and seemed obviously ready for the bigger role that came later on.
From the get go at least I didn’t see Zeb, Frankie, or Dug yet trending that way
December 13th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
Collins leaving was the real dagger... had he still been here we'd be fine.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
He probably would have overtaken Llewelyn by now or definitely with the injury. Last year he “embraced the competition” then bounced. I honestly hope he feels good about his decision and he’s happy.
December 13th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
He probably would have overtaken Llewelyn by now or definitely with the injury
Given how Llewellyn was playing before injury, I'm pretty confident Collins would've been starting at PG from the get go. It still shocks me that Collins was afraid of competition from essentially an undersized SG that Juwan brought in for guard depth
December 13th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
I don't think we can conclude that was why he left. I think it is every bit as possible that Frankie was already leaving and Juwan was looking for anybody.
December 13th, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
beyond question and exactly why recruiting over your own roster you have to be careful nowadays. Both Jones and Lewelyn were clear messages to Frankie. Not saying it wasn't a good idea but you can't keep blossoming stars while bringing in others to give a shot.... Double edge sword because we needed Jones last year but did we need Lewelyn this year now that you look at it? Frankie starting with Dug backing him up seems like a better spot than we are...
December 13th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
They needed another guard that much was obvious. Even with Frankie they would have had 3 guards for this year (Frankie, Kobe, and true freshman Dug). Going for a 4th guy just makes sense given that roster situation.
In hindsight, perhaps they should have gone after a pure 2 rather than a point guard so as to appease Frankie or have sold Llewelyn as a combo rather than a point guard. Maybe they thought Dug would be unplayable this year given his inexperience and height (in which case we are lucky now that he is looking like a serviceable player) forcing them to go after a point guard.
December 13th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
I will probably never understand "recruiting over" pearl clutching. It is HIS NUMBER ONE priority to fill the roster with the best players. If Frankie was good enough, great enjoy your 30 minutes a game. BUT if he wasnt good enough Juwan has the task of making sure he was a full back court every season. I will say Juwan should be playing our younger PGs during the body bag games more minutes.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^
Exactly. What kind of coach would deliberately have his roster missing pieces bc of players that don't want to compete or are so delicate they take it personally? The team needed another guard. Coach Howard made the right decision and Frankie made the choice that was right for him.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
Collins is currently shooting 36% (not on 3's - overall) for the season.
He still can't throw the ball in the ocean.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
He had a 1/12 night last night against Creighton actually
However, he is shooting 31% from three and 70% from the line on pretty high usage, with 5 assists per game. He may turn out okay.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Does Zavier Simpson have any eligibility left?
December 13th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
No, but Jeff Jackson has 4 years!
December 13th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
The UVA and UK games give me a lot of hope. They went toe to toe with two good/great teams but in the end it was a few bad possessions at the end of both games that allowed the opponent to pull away. This is a young team with one returning starter so I think moments like this can be corrected. Llewelyn going down really hurts depth more than anything. This team isn’t deep at guard. I think they need to run more plays specifically for Baker and try to get him in a rhythm. Great shooter and smart player but he needs more shots for that to come through. Jett needs to clean up the fouling, drives me crazy. Dug and Tarris are the real deal, love these two. #beatUNC
December 13th, 2022 at 11:28 AM ^
UVA was not “a few bad possessions at the end of the game”, the entire second half was a slog on offense. I think there was an 8 minute or more stretch where they made 1 field goal. I’m not sure if it’s more encouraging (they were in it despite that) or discouraging (after a good first half UVA shut them down completely and they had zero answer).
December 13th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
To be fair, a strangling defense is UVA's M.O. They are the "boa constrictor" of college hoops.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
Yeah, there was a bad stretch where UM only scored 7 points on 1 FG and some FTs, but they also held UVa to 13 points over that same stretch. They struggled to hit shots during that stretch but I'm not going to go as far to say UVa "figured" them out as much as the inconsistencies we have seen for this team, especially at PG, finally came home to roost. They just couldn't initiate their offense for a while and that allowed UVa to chip away at their lead. But I was actually pretty impressed they were able to hold up against a top-5 team that has top-15 KenPom offensive and defensive units.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
And not to downplay the loss to ASU since it was legitimately humiliating, but ASU is now 10-1 on the season, inside the top 40 in Kenpom, and just beat Creighton last night. While creighton doesn’t have an impressive record, most of their losses have come against legit top 20 teams. That ASU loss is looking a bit easier to swallow as they continue to somehow win games. If they finish with a .500+ PAC-12 record then that’s a “handwave-able” loss.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
My general takes so far:
- Play has progressively gotten better. Defense has improved, we're playing more cohesively, shooting has improved, and seems like Juwan is figuring out rotations and who can contribute on the roster
- Juwan's flaws as a coach don't seem to be going anywhere. Weird rotations, weird recruiting choices (undersized PFs, combo guards who can't play the PG, and continuously going for grad transfer PGs), inability to scheme up a late game shot, etc
- While the sample size is very small, the offense seems to run better with Dug. If he can continue to play half as well as he did against Minnesota, I think he's an upgrade at the position over Llewellyn
- Having Collins and/or Shannon seriously would've alleviated some of the issues this team has been having, but it is what it is
December 13th, 2022 at 10:12 AM ^
With respect to Howard's rotations that was a thing people complained about with Beilein as well and is partially at least due to the aforementioned roster construction issues. They just don't have enough playmakers on offense to spread out across the game, so you have these weird lineups where they're trying to just bleed the clock until Jett or Dickinson (or preferably both) get back in. I assume they thought Llewellyn would be an okay offensive player and they'd get more from other spots.
I do think fans are overrated Frankie Collins a bit now; he's got a 92 ORtg (that's basically Llewellyn's number before he got hurt) and while his assist rate is good he also turns the ball a lot. He'd be a solid PG and another body but he doesn't look to be that different of a player than he was last year. Not having Shannon hurts more because he'd take a ton of pressure off the playmaking and allow Howard to stagger the starters a bit more but as you said that's sort of outside his control.
December 13th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
I do think fans are overrated Frankie Collins a bit now
I don't think fans are though. We saw how he looked as a freshman and we don't need him to be to be a star at the moment. We need someone who can initiate the offense, play solid defense, and get out in transition when necessary. Collins was great at all those things. His ORtg at ASU is not great because his usage is so high and Hurley is an awful coach (who we somehow got torched by)
December 13th, 2022 at 11:30 AM ^
I do think people have framed Collins as a better floor general than he is. His TO Rate is 24 and an effective FG rate of 41%, and a true shooting of 48%, both pretty bad numbers even if he's a high-usage player. And let's be honest, his usage rate this year is partially up because he, again, turns the ball over a lot and wants to run the offense. And some of his offensive numbers are a bit ballooned because of limited sample size; for example his 31% from 3 is due in no small part to shooting 4/11 against Tarleton St. to start the year; that's half his makes on the year from 3.
There are probably a bunch of reasons why he didn't stick around at UM (as noted when he committed he had bounced around various HSes in the Las Vegas area) but one was that he didn't like the offense because it flowed more through Dickinson and he saw himself as more of a ball-dominant PG. So yeah, he's way more involved in the offense but that's because he wanted it that way and Hurley lets him; I have no idea if he'd be happy at UM doing what he was asked to do in this offense or if he'd be particularly effective.
He'd be a plus defender and that's a loss but on the offensive end I'm not sure if UM lost a ton overall beyond having another body out there who could be a PG. And honestly, the fact he apparently complained to the staff both when Dug was recruited as well as when Llewellyn came on leads me to believe he wouldn't have been happy at UM and so leaving made a ton of sense. That isn't meant to diss the guy but a lot of what people wanted him to be do (be selfless on offense and defense) doesn't jive with what his stated desires (be a focal point of the offense).
December 13th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
My issue with the rotation is that Howard seems to have the NBA mentality of a "starter" and "backup" lineup. That's fine in the NBA when they're all pros and you're trying to grind through a 60+ game season - doesn't work the same in College.
I would like to see him stagger the rest more - bring in Tarris or Baker with the starters, and as you mention buy some rest for the HD's and Jett. The trouble is he's taking out 4 or 5 of the starters at once then we're scuffling with our backup lineup.
He's done this consistently - I think it's a holdover from cutting his teeth in the NBA.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Yeah, I agree that does seem to be a holdover of the NBA roster management, but I also think it highlights how short a bench he has to work with. He doesn't have a Chaundee, and Austin Davis, a Brandon Johns off the bench who you can squint at and say "yeah, that guy can be the focal point of an offense for 2-3 minutes" if necessary. Tarris Reed is still figuring it all out offensively, Dug is now basically a starter, and Baker is just a guy at this point. Honestly, if someone like Barnes or Khayat could take over that role it would be wonders for the rotation.
But yeah, it is infuriating to see 3-4 guys on the bench getting breathers when the offense is barely holding on.
December 13th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
This is an interesting discussion. I like the thread. I'll share my general takes:
- It took previous transfer PGs some time to really settle in, I was hoping Llewellyn would do the same. He didn't have a great start to the year but was hopeful he could develop into an average B1G PG. Has another year of eligibility.
- I did not think Dug looked like he deserved even the reserve minutes he was getting. Proved me massively wrong in his start v. Minny. I don't think that's the player he will be, but it was nonetheless very impressive. Has swag.
- The team essentially has one elite player (Dick) and two above average / good players (Jett / Kobe). Jett and Kobe have improved even from the start of the season.
- Need to find two-three solid role players to play with them - Twill, Baker, Dug, Tschetter, Barnes, Jace?
Worst Case: Team finishes the non-conference without a notable win. Over-reliance on Dickinson, inconsistent outside shooting, and poor PG play makes for an up and down conference season. We spend another year hovering near the bubble - except this we end up on the wrong side.
Best Case: Jett and Kobe continue to improve and provide us with a legitimate three-headed offensive monster. Twill's 3 point shooting reverts back to last year (high 30%s). Baker keeps shooting around 40% on higher volume. Dug starts playing under more control and develops into a B+ distributor. Kobe becomes a plus perimeter defender. Team is average defensively ~50 and offense turns into a top 15 unit. Comfortably make the tournament as a fringe Top 25 team. 4-6 seed.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
The coaching staff gambled with the roster construction, going light on guards, and it may well prove to be fatal to tourney hopes. It happens. You work with what you have and there is still talent, it's just raw and the parts don't necessarily fit together smoothly.
Pining after Frankie Collins is pointless. He's long gone.
I'm confident that the staff can scheme up enough offense, the question for me is whether they can make this work on defense. Not sure they have enough stoppers, not enough athleticism, not enough tenacity. But we'll see.
December 13th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
I hope I don't get beat down, but I was hoping somebody could help me with a question. I was hoping to go to the CMU game, and want to know if you need a Covid booster shot if you are due? Or, will the first 2 Pfizer (in my case) shots be enough to gain admittance? I felt worse after getting the shots than I did when I had Covid.
I tried googling this, but it only states you need vaccinated, and must where a mask.
December 13th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
I don't think they are doing any of that stuff anymore, honestly. That is sooooo 2021. I have not seen a mask anywhere in arena in college basketball this year.