Football Scholarships #s w/ a 27 Player Class
I realized we were going to have sizable attrition with the "44 seniors" on senior day along with this quite massive 2016 class but until I looked over the depth chart more closely I didn't realize how much is about to hit: 11 players.
Excluding the out of left field guys like Jack Miller and Blake Countess I believe we only had 3 last year with Hayes, Russ, and Heitzman? (maybe I forgot some) Those 3 "firm handshake" types hit in late January, so we are going to have a very busy period here in the coming month with new recruits committing concurrent with a lot of names exiting stage left.
I know we don't do specific names but here is a chart of eligibility - even if you look at the guys with 1 year of eligibility left and remove anyone who was not a serious contender for playing time in 2015 that only gives you 7 names so 4 others would have to be out there. Should be quite interesting to see how it shakes out.
| # Players | Eligibility |
| 27 | 1 yr |
| 16 | 2 yr |
| 26 | 3 yr |
| 27 | 4 yr |
| 96 |
December 27th, 2015 at 9:20 AM ^
Who are all the potential fifth year guys? I assume the numbers will come from them first, though we know at least some of them will be back.
December 27th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
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December 27th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^
It's probably been said before...but you forgot Pipkins.
December 27th, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^
That's not my post, its a community post on the Useful Stuff section which anyone can edit. Pipkins is off there because he is not on the team - same as Jack Miller. Same as LTT, same as Bosch so they are not on there at all.
We currently are only using 82/85 scholarships due to these departures and then guys like Ryan Glasgow getting 1 year scholarships.
December 27th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 9:33 AM ^
Not saying it is a "problem" - I would assume at this point, Harbaugh already knows the names as he is recruiting to a specific # and wouldn't be doing it blind. Just saying it is going to probably surprise the casual fan how many there are about to be. I was a bit taken back and I follow this stuff relatively closely.
11 of 85 = 13% of the roster via attrition.
In a typical year you might lose say 18 to graduation = 21%
So it's almost akin to losing 2/3rds of a typical graduating class
Or in 2015 terms we are only set to lose 13 players to graduation off the roster... and 11 via attrition.
December 27th, 2015 at 1:47 PM ^
Can you seperate out 4th year and 5th year seniors?
I believe I've counted 5 or 6 5th year guys that no one expects back.
December 27th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
17 fifth year seniors on the roster - most are starters or key contributors. I count 10. Another 2 while not starters I think many would be shocked if they leave. It could be possible though. That only leaves 5 "non contributors" who redshirted IMO.
The other 10 guys with 1 year eligibility are true seniors.
December 27th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
The question is one of timing - when do these QBs, RBs etc decide to transfer? Before Spring ball? Or do they wait to see how that shakes out?
Is it even possible to bring all these people (counting EEs) to Spring practices unless someone bolts 1st? When do you have to be at 85?
December 27th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
Unless we are entering an era of oversigning I believe they'd technically need to leave the program by NSD to make room for the 27 new scholarships from the 2016 recruits.
December 27th, 2015 at 5:15 PM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^
They have to leave the program by the time the NSD recruits start their scholarship, which typically is mid summer or fall.
December 27th, 2015 at 8:20 PM ^
The optics of that is going to look really bad. Say 5 guys leave post bowl i.e. the obvious guys. I know a portion of the fanbase is "f*** anything & everything you have to do, just win a championship" but the same things some people are very now apparently "fine" with most in the fanbase mocked and derided in many a post about other schools just 2 years ago.
Like going into spring practice with about 7 kids to "cut" in May to make your number of 85.
December 27th, 2015 at 8:54 PM ^
Michigan has always been more than just what you do, but how you do it as well. Integrity is something the program has had, and I do not want to see that compromised.
December 28th, 2015 at 9:18 AM ^
Those with no realistic shot to contribute will be non-renewed before NSD I'd think. Those others you mention may be invited to compete for PT, and to look for landing spots if it looks like they'll be too buried.
Nothing unethical about that I don't think.
December 27th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^
You also forgot last year that we had random departures like Michael Fern (who would have been a contributor at LB) and Kyle Bosch (issues, but apparently going to contribute at WVU at OL).
December 27th, 2015 at 9:28 AM ^
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December 27th, 2015 at 9:31 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 9:41 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
of a "I sure hope_____ leaves; he sucks" thing, which would inevitably occur if people start naming someone who they think will leave.
Didn't Beilein do the same thing with Bielfeldt? I guess you aren't guaranteed a fifth year, and with the pressure to win, Harbaugh has to keep the best. Sad, really, but after 3-4 years, I think people know if you are starter material or not.
December 27th, 2015 at 10:42 AM ^
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December 27th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
"I'm not so sure that would inevitably occur." But based on the history of the blog over the previous few years, it does inevitably occur.
December 27th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
Well this isn't really that hard to figure out - that's why 96 linked to a roster with eligibility bolded, starters highlighted, RS denoted etc. - what I think the debate here is should 96 go ahead & connect the dots for the rest of us who don't feel like doing it for ourselves?
Thare are players who have been on the team 4 years yet retain a year of eligibility. Some of them have never started, or played even any significant snaps. Some have their path to increased PT blocked by others who've already garnered more PT. We know who they are by looking at that roster. We don't need to drop their names here.
The only debate can be of interpretation or extrapolation... some of them may well have a use to the team as experienced depth. Others are so buried they'll never realistically see the field.
That's the type of debate 96 seeks to avoid by not posting the names here. It really is very disrespectful to those who's names you would bandy about, and we all have our opinions who those players will be. After a few back 'n forths about which guys are which, we'll end up not only dissing the players but each other as well...
96 refers to a very real #s crunch here, one none of us can see the end game of. So I post the question again I posted above - when do we need to be at 85, hard date?
December 27th, 2015 at 8:12 PM ^
respectful to sit around and disparage individual players, especially in a casual way, I'd also say--just my opinion--that if Michigan is getting these guys degrees it is not obligated to give them football scholllies when they are not going to contribute.
December 27th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^
Do you want recruits and their parents reading a bunch of "fans" speculating who is going to leave when the only motive is hoping they create a scholarship for another incoming player? The fact that we have enough class to refrain from discussing specific names is what separates us from fanbases like those of Sparty, etc.
Also, I have one question for you: exactly how "useful" is our speculation? To elaborate, here are a couple more. Is the world going to end tomorrow if you don't get to mention some kid's name here? Is there any "use" or positive scenario that can come from any of us guessing names here and embarassing some of these players who read the blog?
Bottom line: the only effects fanbase discussion of who is going to leave can have on the team are negative. I am not telling you what to do, but you may want to subjugate your ego and find some other way to display your awesome abiliity to project who is going to leave and who is going to stay.
December 27th, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
Well, then, why even have a message board on the blog? Most people really know very little about the intracacies of football. They discuss things, both pre and post-game, but it really doesn't effect the game's outcome... or that of the following game.
As far as recruiting is concerned, why discuss it at all? You may identify position needs, but you're not on the coaching staff so your evaluation is not relevant. You may discuss the pluses or minuses of any recruit, but you're not recruiting or really that knowledgeable about their talents or potential, so why even discuss it?
December 27th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
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December 27th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
i guess it's considered to be a form of micro-aggression and we don't want to force anyone into seeking a safe zone. I wonder if Harbaugh has established one in Schembechler Hall...
December 27th, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^
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December 27th, 2015 at 1:52 PM ^
It's in poor taste
But I can name in them in the body of the thread...
- Blake Bars
- Matt Godin
- Tom Strobel
- Allen Gant
- Terry RIchardson
....then you have to wonder about Derrick Green, Shane Morris, Reon Dawson and Jaron Dukes.
December 27th, 2015 at 2:04 PM ^
(edit title from first post "We don't in the OP" ...because it's in poor taste - is what I was trying to say).
I'll give you a medical type like a Michael McCray (which would kill depth because I already said Gant) or a rumored mutual separation type like a Lawerence Marshall who was rumored to be in the doghouse all year and never played too much.
And for 11, I'll give you a RS Senior that leaves on good terms for a starting role...but someone that we all HATE to see go...just like Heitzman and Countess? Jeremy Clark OR Drake Johnson. Again, not necessarily predicting either of them, and I certainly don't want to see it...but if we're going to lose 11 guys - we have to be prepared that at least 1 of those guys is going to sting when he decides to leave (like Countess and Heitzman to a lesser extent).
Two other names to discuss for whatever reason could be Ross Taylor-Douglas and Freddy Canteen.
So there are 11 names to discuss...you can rip me for it or discuss as a couple of you seemed to want to do. For the record, I hope EVERYONE is back. But if you want some names or a best guess...there you go.
December 27th, 2015 at 2:39 PM ^
I don't think it's out of the question for two quarterbacks and/or two running backs to be in the discussion on players leaving the program. Some of those players are seeing their potentional playing time diminish with the talent of the incoming class.
December 27th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised if an Oline starter that is ready to move on...maybe Kalis. He came is with a ton of hype, has played a lot of downs and seemed to have hit his ceiling pretty early. Not sure if another year will do him much good..and, just speculating, the coaching staff might want to give some younger, fresher/hungrier, guys a shot.
Not really hoping he leaves...but part of me thinks it could actually be good to see one of the upperclass Olinemen move on and get another young, high-potential, guy in there.
December 27th, 2015 at 3:21 PM ^
I don't see any harm in respectful conversation about Michigan football (including the roster). For some reason, I REALLY hope things work out for Strobel. I also think that Godin will be back. He rotated in fairly regularly this year.....and we all saw how important experienced depth can be on the DL over the last three games.
I agree that the other guys will probably not be on the roster during Spring Ball. I hope they all graduate and enjoyed their time at Michigan. At the end of the day, they've all played football for Michigan and they'll get to carry that for the rest of their lives.
December 27th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 9:33 AM ^
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December 27th, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
It will be interesting to see the precedent set this year with the 5th year seniors who are not clearly bench warmers and not clearly starters.
You have the obvious returning guys who are starters and the obvious not returning guys who have barely played a snap in years. But those guys in the middle who have been 2nd string at some point in their career but could be getting squeezed out - that will be the group interesting to me to see how he handles those. I see about 3 of those guys in the group with 1 year of eligibility - until I did this, I assumed they'd all be back. Now it seems a lot less certain.
December 27th, 2015 at 10:09 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^
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December 27th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
December 27th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^