First CFP Rankings come out Tuesday (edited) October 31st
I didn't realize that the first rankings come out after week 8 until a buddy mentioned it last night watching the game.
I started thinking about it and tried to think like a CFP board member, and my guess is that they rank us #3 to start. Georgia for recency bias and I think they rank osu ahead of us for the time being because of their ND and PSU victories.
I personally think we have a good case for #1 based on us being the only team to win each of their 8 games by over 20 points, the fact that our starters are playing about 2.5 quarters and to me, after watching the osu/psu game yesterday...we certainly pass the eye test.
But I think this team plays better with a chip on their shoulder and something to shoot for. As long as we're in the top 4, I'm good...but as we get closer to that last game and we take care of business, there is a pathway to the ranking we all think this team deserves.
Curious what everyone else thinks...
[per OP's request, title edited to add October 31st] -rob f
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
I'm pretty sure it's not for another week...
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
You are absolutely right...I saw something that I bit off on, but see now where I effed up.
However, with our bye this week, the question still stands. Curious what everyone thinks.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
Oh awesome, I'll get to watch Heather dunk on us for no good reason
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
I'm just concerned about the next 4 games. I'm beginning to wonder if someone at Michigan doesn't want Jim Harbaugh to succeed. Isn't it odd that the allegations came after talk of a contract extension? Who would know about Connor Stallions but someone inside Michigan? Matt Dudek? Maybe. But I smell the stink of Warde Manuel not wanting to pay Jim and pushing him out the door. CFP or not, does Warde want to keep the best coach in college football?
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Why would Warde want Jim out?
If Jim goes, then Warde has to hire a new coach. If Warde gets that hire wrong, then Warde is fired.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
I feel like we have a safety net in Santa Ono regarding Warde not wanting to pay Harbaugh his worth.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
I'll second the Santa Ono comment. Yes, Jim has a big ally in Santa Ono. I wonder if Warde would even know who Conner Stalion is. I doubt Warde would micro-manage the football staff to that detail, maybe Dave Brandon would.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
Great point about Manuel. But based on the revenue numbers I found from last year, even at $8M salary, that's 3.8% of Michigan's revenue. I say that's a great deal on the part of the school to continue to rake in that much money. #4 on the list that I found at a total of $210M.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Mods, if this is premature or a good discussion I leave it to your judgement.
Feel free to alter the title or delete at your discretion.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
I'll edit the title a bit.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
Rankings don't matter until December 3.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
I know quite often they do look purely at wins and losses, but any objective eye that watched the PSU v OSU game did not see dominating defenses stopping high powered offenses.
It was decent defense against some pretty embarrassing offenses, up until one of them unf***ed themselves long enough to scrape together some points.
No way they rank OSU above M.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
Until one of them remembered Marvin Harrison is on the team.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
unf***ed themselves
That's an industry term, if I'm not mistaken...
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
They showed clips of Frames' and Day's postgame comments on College Football Final.
Frames:
Not sure if we didn’t just watch two of the best teams in college football, obviously specifically on the defensive side of the ball.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure we didn't.
Day:
And I just felt the toughness, the physicality on defense…
The dude's doubling-down on the toughness angle. Bold move, I guess.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Defensively, both teams were very good and OSU's defense is significantly better than last year. Offensively, it was ugly. OSU was able to move the ball much easier than PSU. Drew Allar looked like he should be playing for Iowa. He struggled mightily as they could not throw the ball at all.
What I saw were two very good teams that have weaknesses, whereas Michigan does not have these weaknesses. I think Michigan will be the favorite when they go to Happy Valley in a few weeks.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
Can't wait to see what Mike Sainristil and Will Johnson will do against the PSU passing game. Let alone our DL play that should be able to pressure Allar. Call these as keys to the PSU game.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
Key to the game is can we block the DEs and give McCarthy a clean or at least escapable pocket. Partly depends how serious Chop Robinson's injury yesterday is. Looked like a concussion to me. Has three weeks to recover.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Last year, Ohio State had SP+'s #5 defense through seven games.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
B1G helped OSU quite a bit in this one. Their first TD was handed to them by a penalty and they took away a PSU scoop and score with another BS call.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
I could smell the home cook'in by refs on that scoop and score play.
Not to mention how Iowa got robbed on the De Jean punt runback TD play and how Donovan wasn't set at the snap that took the end of the first half TD off the board for our guys.
The refs are getting noticeably worse, at least in the Big-10.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
I agree that the OSU flag seemed fishy but DeJean and Edwards flag were the right calls
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
King grabbed Harrison on the scoop and score. Was pretty obvious and right at the top of his route. PSU DBs in general are very grabby.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
OSU DBs did the same thing and nothing was called. If you are going to call on such a key play, be consistent with the calls. The refs were not good in that game.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
Quoting myself from the Noon Games Thread:
Both sides of the ball, too:
[OSU CB Igbinosun bear-hugs a PSU WR at the sticks]
Klatt: Just really good coverage right there.
Grabby CBs is an age-old tradition at OSU.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
As someone already noted, the first rankings come out on October 31.
But even more importantly, MACtion also starts on October 31. NIU @ CMU. Halloween and MACtion, does it get any better than that?
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
Having a bye week right before the first rankings probably won't help us. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if they snub us at least a little bit to make a point about cupcake scheduling.
- Georgia and OSU will be ahead of us (unless either lose this upcoming weekend obviously, Florida for UGA and @Wisconsin for OSU)
- Until last night against ASU, Washington has looked really dominant too and unlike us they have a marquee win (Oregon), so if they look more impressive again/blow out Stanford next Saturday they could potentially be above us too, especially if Oregon notches a marquee win of their own @Utah. They also demolished Sparty in EL, so our one game in common is mostly a wash/could be used as an excuse to negate our large margins. They also have the probable Heisman frontrunner.
- Oklahoma also has a much better win than we have (vs. Texas), and has an opportunity for a solid pickup next weekend @Kansas too, though I think that's less likely they'd move ahead of us.
- The only major undefeated team I don't see as a threat at all would be FSU with how closely they've played garbage teams, and LSU losing its preseason luster a bit.
All in all, I think #3 or #4 are both possible first rankings, maybe lean to #3 only because of UW struggling with ASU, and #5 is not impossible if OU looks particularly impressive at Kansas next weekend.
Assuming all the favorites win next weekend and don't look particularly awful doing so, I'd bet:
- Georgia
- OSU
- Michigan/Washington
- Michigan/Washington
- Oklahoma
- Florida State
But as others have said, it won't matter long term. If we beat PSU & OSU we will move back up past several of these teams.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
The eyeball test still counts right? If so, I think they may still be able to slide into that #2 spot to start. If it were Georgia that had Michigan's schedule and put up the same results, they would be clear and away #1 when the CFP comes out.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Eye test definitely matters, but I think less precisely and more subjectively. A lot of the top teams have had at least a couple dominant blowouts, and I feel like the marginal utility of each diminishes significantly when compared to other factors.
Georgia just won't fall below us as a two-time defending champion even if we look better. And OSU's resume is miles better, especially with a night win in Madison. They'd have 4 wins over teams better than the best team we've beaten.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
Despite your good comments to make the case for us not to be disappointed in getting a lower ranking than we hope for, know that Michigan has been more first place votes these past few weeks in the AP voting and closing the gap with Georgia. I think that Michigan will get a few more first place votes later today for the rankings for this week after last night dominating performance.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
I think the timing and announcement of ncaa investigation without charge gets more suspect all the time.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
I hope people are prepared to be disappointed. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan is 6th or lower.
The committee is in a constant battle between ranking teams by "best" and by "most deserving." Unfortunately due to Michigan's schedule, we won't be very high on the "most deserving" scale.
ESPN has two measures for "best": SP+ and FPI. Michigan is 1st and 2nd in those. However, we are only 9th in Strength of Record, ESPN's measure for "most deserving." I think the rankings will represent a combination of those two factors.
Assuming a chalk weekend, I expect OSU, OU, and FSU to be the top 3. From there, Michigan, Georgia, Washington, Bama, and Texas are probably the next tier. Michigan has been the best on the field of that group, but doesn't have the wins to necessarily prove it.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan is ranked 4 or 5, but I’ll be shocked if Georgia isn’t #1—they get the automatic bump for playing in the SEC.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
I frankly wouldn’t be surprised if they put us 5th or 6th in the first ranking under the argument that several other undefeated teams — OSU, FSU, OU, Wash — have wins over ranked teams and because Georgia is Georgia. And also because they like to drum up controversy for the last year anyone gives a shit about the top 4. None of it matters, just win out and it takes care of itself
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
I think no shot we're #1. Wouldn't surprise me to see them put us at 3 or 4 honestly because I think they're gonna make a point about how our SOS stinks right now even though we're pretty clearly the most dominant team in the country
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
Georgia is probably going to be #1 until someone beats them, but I think you can make a case for either Georgia, Michigan or OSU to be #1 right now, and all with different reasons not to.
Georgia - defending back to back champs, overloaded with talent, but except against Kentucky they have not looked like the Georgia we are accustomed to seeing, and Brock Bowers being out could severely hamper them down the stretch.
OSU - probably the best looking resume right now, but their offense outside of MHJ has not looked that convincing relative to what we’re used to. They can’t run the ball.
Michigan - Dominant in every game, they’ve done exactly what they’re expected to do against the teams they’ve played, look like a complete team with a ton of depth, but until Penn State the SoS can and will be called into question.
October 22nd, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
Don’t look now but UNLV is 6-1 and receiving votes in the coaches poll. They could, conceivably, end up with only 1 or 2 losses and be ranked in the top 25 at the end of the season. They still have games against Wyoming and AF coming up but the rest of their games seem winnable based on current conference records.
October 22nd, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
Georgia will likely debut ranked #1, ceremonially, because of how they played last year, which I think is a bit stupid, honestly. In 2023 Michigan has proved themselves the best team in the country, which I feel 2023 rankings should reflect.