Film study from elevenwarriors: How OSU destroyed MSU defense
I know a lot of people are gonna complain about the source. But I always enjoy film breakdowns regardless of the affiliation and wanted to share.
Quick summary:
-MSU runs a Saban inspired cover 3 pattern matching that promptly nukes from orbit. Naturally, to be sure.
-MSU switch to a quarters defense to stop the bleeding. It stops nothing, like a lawnchair on train tracks.
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/film-study/2021/11/127093/film-study-michigan-state-had-no-answers-for-ohio-states-explosive-offense
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
This is a pretty good showing of what makes Ryan Day so lethal. He knows exactly what you're going to do against his offense and he has a counter-measure for it. So we likely won't have the element of surprise on Saturday (unless MacDonald really pulls something out of the bag). So in my mind, the key is to play the lowest risk defense possible against the pass (basically 1 step down from prevent defense) and make sure they have to run 10 plays or more to score (because they will score, but that many plays in a row increases the odds of a turnover or mistake, getting stuck behind the chains, etc.) If you force them on long, meandering drives where they pick up 5-15 yards per play, that also reduces the number of drives they get to have overall. So in my mind, sellout to stop the pass (I believe Ryan Day's 1 weakness is he's impatient, he wants to score on a long bomb, force him to handoff the ball 5 times in a row and he's eventually gonna gamble that his NFL QB and WR's will make something happen). Make sure that his gamble is a floater into double coverage at all costs.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
Don't look now, but they can run the ball too. I'm sure they'll be more than happy to take which ever we give them. The way our run D has played the last few games, I don't think we can just expect the front 4 to handle to run game and leave everyone else in coverage. I don't envy the task Mac Donald has before him this week.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
The run defense has been exposed more than the passing defense, especially against mobile qbs
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
Fortunately, while Stroud can move a bit, he doesn't run often. It would be on brand, of course, for him to actually run the ball against Michigan, but he has not shown the desire to do so often this year. And, moreso than other years, I think the last thing OSU can afford is for Stroud to take a lot of hits and go out of the game. McCord may be good eventually and had a good game against the 2-9 Akron Zips, but he has NOT looked like he's ready for primetime. Of course, me saying that means Stroud will run like Fields and/or McCord will come in and look like Haskins.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^
Stroud will absolutely run the ball Saturday. Michigan has got to be ready for it.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
Is he really a NFL QB? I have seen this repeated multiple teams across various threads? It seem like everyone assumes he is NFL bound or has the quality to be NFL bound. May be the measurable... I don't know. NFL QBs require certain kind of throws and I have not seen enough of their games to tell if he is capable of doing that.
November 22nd, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^
I'm sure someone will draft him. Whether he actually accomplishes anything in the NFL as a QB will remain to be seen.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:04 PM ^
I realize that this is hardly a great insight, but I have to think that a Michigan victory would involve Hutchinson and Ojabo having massive games.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:06 PM ^
And McNamara. And Haskins.
We essentially need a flawless game from the entire team and for OSU to make a couple mistakes. A pretty tall order.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
I think that's overstating it. As an example, Griese threw three picks in the Biakabutuka game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
Well, OK, I'll bite. I wager that if Haskins goes for 313 we win and what McNamara does will not matter.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
Im having 2018 flash backs
they double the ends and single block the tackles.
we really need one of the DTs to play out of their minds.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
Not sure how Morris does against the run generally, but he adds a pass rushing aspect that Hinton/Smith don't always provide. They need to get into down and distances that allow for subbing him in to rush the passer and not get caught on the ground.
Upshaw too, but to a lesser degree and I don't think he can get much run on anything less than 6 yards to go for a first down because he can be moved.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
The key to the game for me is Christopher Hinton. Hutchinson and Ojabo are the best DEs we’ve brought to this game in my memory. Mazi has really impressed me lately. If Hinton realizes his 5 star potential, we win the line of scrimmage and defeat their strength. Then it comes down to our offense putting it all together. We’ve seen the Corum games, the Haskins games, the All, Anthony, Roman, Edwards and Johnson games. Put them altogether and you have an offense that can keep up with OSU. I’m still at 10-20% win percentage for us. If Hinton stands up to their interior line, that jumps to 50%.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
I'd refine your great insight to specify that a Michigan victory would involve the refs calling holding, which would *allow* Hutchinson and Ojabo to have massive games.
November 22nd, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
But yet the spread is only 8 points.
November 22nd, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
Dax Hill will play a huge role with multiple PBUs.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:07 PM ^
"MSU runs a Saban inspired cover 3 pattern matching that promptly nukes from orbit. Naturally, to be sure."
Thanks for the summary. That clarified everything.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
It’s not much, but it’s honest work.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
He has a way with words.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^
I think it means the strategy got nuked beyond orbit. Or it fell from orbit due to a nuke in or just beyond orbit. Either way these are naturally occurring events, to be sure.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
Yeah I butchered the delivery.
I tripped over my cleverness, if you will.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
Can someone forward this to Harbaugh?
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
Not to be overly dismissive of the analysis, but MSU is the #130 ranked pass defense i.e. LAST in FBS. No scheme was going to make that game anything but a bloodbath for that defense
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^
While this is true, 49 points and 500 yards in a half against any power 5 school is otherworldly.
just put it this way, I’m not sure they would be much better if they were playing against air.
Michigan back 7 is vastly better than MSU. But a full game of that type of offense is nightmare inducing.
November 22nd, 2021 at 10:24 PM ^
Just looking at that film, every receiver was wide open on every play. The article makes it sound like clever preparation, when it was really abysmal execution.
On the first example Olave is running right at the safety. Stroud is looking right at Olave and the safety thinks oh I better leave this guy wide open so I can double cover the guy who's covered by the cornerback running down the sideline 30 yards away. Day schemed for stupidity?
In the first half, OSU ran 46 plays but only 3 were third downs (all converted) and Stroud had 2 incompletions with 6 passing touchdowns.
In one 14 minute stretch they scored 5 touchdowns in 26 plays. That is a touchdown every 5.2 plays.
I think air would have been a better opponent.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
"MSU is the #130 ranked pass defense."
Remind me again...how did we lose to those guys??
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:03 PM ^
It's better not to think about it.
November 22nd, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
Refs, subsitution penalties, EL is the center of Hell. I'm sure I missed a few factors.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
I would like to see just one time Michigan comes into this game and surprises them. It’s always something they find and kill us on, crossing routes..etc
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
I do not see how osu doesn't score at least 31 and I think that is sort of the number you need to hold them to. The key, to me, will be that those 31 points are done on long drives with a lot of snaps The more snaps, the more opportunity for H & A to make a big play.
Giving up a big play is bad but it's a backbreaker against osu because they can turn it around and do it again, and again, and again, and again. Make them take as many snaps as possible and you just have to how that the more they have to snap the ball the more likely it is you throw a wrench into the gears.
There is nothing more more important to me than winning the turnover battle and limiting plays of over 20 yards and completely nullifying plays over ~40 yards.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
If it were me I would have a lot of disguise and plenty of coverages so neither Day nor anyone else down there can tell what the coverage will be pre-snap, and make Stroud have to figure it out post-snap. Moreover, don't allow any clues or tips so they can coach Stroud on what means what. EG, I might play man but trade off on motion so that a DB running with a man in motion is not a giveaway. This is not easy to do, assignment-wise, but if Michigan has been having OSU period every day like we've been told, it is possible.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:15 PM ^
We need to get to Stroud. And get to him early. That’s the only way we are going to have a chance. It’s all coming down on Hutchinson and Ojabo. That being said, I like our chances
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:06 PM ^
Michigan is not sacking Stroud. Period. Not happening.
OSU’s offensive line is very good, they can double both ends and single Hinton and Smith. They can also use the techniques Nebraska did (in the videos in this very post) and Stroud doesn’t hold the ball long to begin with.
November 22nd, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
It is quite possible that the game plan was to throw to any open receiver. It doesn't matter what the defensive alignment was because OSU could just run away from whatever coverage MSU ran.
I am not qualified to evaluate in game adjustments but for the most part it is easy for me to believe that Ryan Day has gotten a lot of breaks and has a lot of talent so I am not inclined to give him a lot of credit just yet. After the Indiana game exposed crossing routes wouldn't any one of us run the OSU offense the way Day did? A lot of play calling from mid-field doesn't hurt either.
Day might be the greatest coach every but this biased Wolverine isn't going with that just yet. I say that as a fan of what Woody Hayes and Nick Saban have accomplished.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:58 PM ^
Out of the 30 passes Stroud threw in the first half, I think I counted 3 times where he went to his second option.
So they called the play and the receiver as wide open, like really wide open. There were maybe 2 passes where anyone was within 3 yards.