External Indicators of Execution-ability of Offense?

Sorry but this is just BAD.   Late night posts tend to indicate adult beverage consumption and this post is swimming in it.   I had to read several lines several times just to try to get a handle on your “point” and .......... I still don’t.   

https://goo.gl/images/itTy6o

It’s not complicated. Bad play calling. 

Not sure about the direction of this post.  All I can say, is I think the team is improving and the season most of us hoped for is still in front of us. There is breakdowns at every level on occasion in team sports. Coaches expect a certain offensive or defensive formation and "guess" at next play call. Game to game, the success rate of the "guess" ebbs and flows. One person misses a block an otherwise perfect call and exectution and a potential big play is a one yard loss.

So much goes into the game we love called football.  I do think the Michigan fanbase is a bit more critical than most fan bases. Michigan dug a big hole since losing to App State.  There was a good season or two, but many more bad seasons and poor recruiting than good seasons and good recruiting.  Michigan has gone from playing even or better than OSU and dominating MSU to becoming the doormat for both those programs over a 8-10 year span. The last 2 years Michigan should have beat OSU with much less talent and should have been 3-0 against MSU.  A blocked punt and injured QB's with no depth made the coaching staff work magic to keep us in those games.  This is the first year in Harbaugh's 4 years he has elite an QB on the field and a backup. This is the first year that the Team has strength and depth in most areas.  Still more work to do, but anyone who can't see this team is close, isn't looking or doesn't understand how dynasty's are built.

I am an armchair QB. I do sit and wonder some of the conservative play call running into an 8 man box.  I do have confidence we have an elite coaching staff than know a good bit more about X's and O's then I do.

The simplest indicator for offense or defense is look at the line movement.  Are the lines moving forward or backwards.  

I would argue that RPS is the best metric for playcalling and everything else is just relative talent and execution between Michigan's offense and the opponent's defense. In other words, playcalling is irrelevant if you have a large positive talent and execution differential with the opposing defense. The more it is even, the more advantage you need from playcalling and that's where RPS comes into play. Since we know RPS is generally a small percentage of plays in each game, it really does come down to talent and execution. OSU has a pretty simplistic offensive scheme but they run it with 5* talent with players built for and developed for that system. Their playcalling is pretty predictable but it doesn't matter when you have guys that can take a screen pass 80 yards in no time.

Lord have mercy!!! If one doesn't know that performance and execution are not unequivocally intertwined then you simply are hopelessly lost. Sure, calling a fullback dive on 4th and 43 from your own 7 yard line is bad play calling but...just quit it. Competing and winning athletically is about execution!!!

So, ultimately we are looking for someone to blame for below average offense.  Some say it's talent.  Recruiting rankings would disagree.  Some say it's coaching.  Our coaches have all had success elsewhere.  Some say it's execution based on too complex of a scheme (more mental than physical talent).  I'm not sure how we would know this.  Some say it's too much youth playing, which would be part of the many transitions of coaching regimes.  It's no wonder why we have no idea what the problem is.  Maybe there is something inherently different about UM that makes it harder to execute on offense.  Maybe we just have to continue to be patient?  I don't know but it seems like we should be better than we are at some stuff and that we should have an offense scheme that everyone knows by now with mastery of the base offense.  We have had a lot decent amount of turnover with the offensive coaching (Wheatley, Fisch, Drevno, Hamilton, Drevno, etc.).  But, when OSU has coaching turnover on offense (Warriner, Hermon, Day) they don't seem to suffer the same problem.  Who effin knows :/

For much of the game, I did think our offense should be executed.*

*Yes I know I'm stealing John McKay's line.

Let's assume line play and QB play are two key ingredients to the efficiency of the offense  - lots of metrics to measure this. ESPN's FEI Offense is one of them. M has moved from 76th in 2017 to 20th in 2018 (after 5 games). QBR from 58.5 to 74.6. YPC/Run YPG and Passing YPP/ YPG have both improved. Why?

On Line play: The Warriner interview tends to inform line play as it relates to the OP's question. He mentioned that he can coach the OL that there are 6 things that are going to or need to happen once the ball is snapped. His job, as a coach, is to identify the two most likely things. This way players can play fast because they're thinking of working on 2 things instead of 6. The eyeball test and UFRs Offense confirms line play is considerably better and improving in 2018 compared to 2017.

On QB play: Is QB play better in 2018 than 2017? I'm not going to answer that.

On scheme and in-game play calling: Is M's offensive scheme or in-game play calling substantially different in 2018 than 2017? To my eye and to that of the UFRs, no.

It's execution that has M playing better and the trend lines in the measureables would seem to support that conclusion. I think, as has already been mentioned that, "it's football." Some play calls perfectly executed are going to work, sometimes they aren't because the opponent's defense executed well. Are there bad calls based on down and distance? I can think of a few - but not may.

My view is that Harbaughffense as it is designed is sound, in-game play calling within that scheme is generally sound.   

Might be nice to have a little blinking red light on the TV.

Offense is too uptight. 

Needs to play more loosey goosey.

A point that is too often missed is that execution is as much the responsibility of the coaches as play calling. It’s the coaches’ job to teach the players to execute and run plays that the players can effectively execute. 

And there is no doubt that repetition aids in effective execution. This year’s offense is very different from previous versions, particularly in the running game. I like this year’s version, but it’s a substantial evolution from last year’s wreck. While this is a good thing, it also means we are running a lot of plays we have not repped as much as I’d like. My hope is that we retain this running game for years to come and make more subtle changes when necessary. 

The passing game is unquestionably complex. The QB is asked to make multiple reads and progressions, the receivers need to learn complete route trees and option routes, the blocking has to be better than many offenses designed to get the ball out faster, and there multiple concepts built into the playbook (West Coast, Air Raid, Spread). 

That does not mean the passing game can’t be effective. Personally, I’d like to see more deception and less complexity (Fisch was a master of that) in the passing game. I’d like to see more slants and fades. I’d like to see more screens and throwbacks. Basically, at the college level, I’d like to see more plays where the QB has only one or two decisions to make. And, actually, the KC Chiefs offense is one that we could mimic to find a nice middle ground between our current complexity and some of the ultra basic passing offenses popular in college today. 

I guess what I’m saying is I’d like to see a passing game coordinator with more creativity and less complexity. 

Hot take: The offense is mostly fine. All the efficiency metrics have them in the top 30. I would like to see a little more YOLO-ball, but I think they are being conservative intentionally. Penalties, field position, and Red Zone execution have limited the points output in the NW and Notre Dame games. 

Poor execution excuses are things that should be only valid in very limited situations. I think Don Brown had some interesting personnel and formations that were kind of, um, out there early Saturday. However, Brian was spot on with his criticism of Gil and the crossing route with Kinnel of how the coach called the right scheme and it wasn’t executed correctly. 

However, contrary to what Sexy Al and Clapping Hoke think, a longer term issue with execution is not on the players at all. Either the coaches are not teaching the plays and concepts well or they’re presenting a terrible game plan. 

One of the things that frustrates me a bit is we seem to be getting criticism from both sides. 

I'm not a football expert by any stretch of the imagination. But I can't go a day without hearing both 'Our offense is too complex' and 'Our offense is too predictable'.