Excited for the 12 Team Playoff
The first CFP thread is quite lengthy and mostly griping about Clemson being too high (agreed) and our non-conference schedule costing us (arguments on both sides here). I saw one item on ESPN I thought worth sharing is how amazing the 12 team playoff will be (Link). Below is how it would look as of today based on the current rankings. What do we need to transpire to get this accelerated to 2024? Is it still generally understood that the SEC is going to biggest hurdle?
Here's what the playoff would look like if the 12-team format were in place today:
Seeds with byes
1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. TCURemaining seeds
(conference champs in bold)5. Georgia
6. Michigan
7. Alabama
8. Oregon
9. USC
10. LSU
11. Ole Miss
12. TulaneFirst-round games
No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Michigan
No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 USC at No. 8 OregonQuarterfinal games
No. 9 USC-No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Tennessee
No. 10 LSU-No. 7 Alabama winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 11 Ole Miss-No. 6 Michigan winner vs. No. 3 Clemson
No. 12 Tulane-No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 TCU
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:10 PM ^
Hopefully the best outcome of this is for us to play good OOC schedules so we're not afraid of a loss early knocking us out of the playoffs 🤞
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:20 PM ^
The whole “let’s play an easy OOC schedule for an easy path to the CFP” take turned out to be completely wrong. The committee choosing to rank us behind Clemson means we’re likely not getting in 11-1; whereas if we played UCLA like originally scheduled, we’d probably get in at 11-1.
And honestly thank god for season ticket holders because this year’s first 4 weeks would’ve gotten quite old if not for a QB competition and a valiant effort from Maryland. Next year’s home schedule is awful until the finale against OSU. Hoping those marquee OOC games scheduled from 2024-2028 remain on the schedule.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:24 PM ^
It’s a gamble either way. If you win out, you are in and no one cares that you played a weak non con. If you play a tough non con and drop one you have some making up to do and you can’t lose another one, but if you win them all and drop a close game late no one cares. There is no perfect way to go
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^
Stats show all that matters is the win-loss. Had OSU not lost to OU in 2017 it would have been picked over non-conference champ and 1 loss Alabama.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
"The only stat that matters is points" - Jim Harbaugh
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:24 PM ^
The whole “let’s play an easy OOC schedule for an easy path to the CFP” take turned out to be completely wrong.
I wouldn't say that. Going undefeated will always be favored above having one loss. Strength of schedule will only make a difference as a tiebreaker between two teams with the same record.
November 3rd, 2022 at 4:49 AM ^
Tell that to schools like Utah, TCU, Boise State, etc...much depends on perceived SOS.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
Clemson played an FCS school and didn't get dinged for it. Our problem is Iowa and MSU suck. If they were still ranked, no one would complain about our schedule strength.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:33 PM ^
I think M could easily get into the CFP if they go 11-1 with a win over OSU (and say, a loss to UI). This would still put M into the B1GCG, and a likely rematch with UI to go 12-1.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
The OOC schedules yes. For next year's home slate - I'm actually kinda excietd to see Purdue again. The reality is with the supersized Big Ten, you may not get the other marquee teams at home. We are guaranteed one of our rivalry games at home - in MSU years we're slated to have 3 other home games that include PSU, but starting in 2024 with a 16 game schedule, thats not necessarily true. If the marquee schools outside of our rivals are PSU, UN-L, Wisconsin, and USC - I think we'll be fortunate if the Big Ten structures it so we get one of those teams in the Big House every year. It'd be great if they space it out so we get exactly one every year on a 4-year rotation. It is also likely that we'll frequently have the rivalry game and then Purdue, Maryland and Illinois at home. So we almost need to have decent OOC matchups in preparation for a home slate that would otherwise be the rivalry game and nothing else that excites people before hand.
Weirdly tho, Nebraska won't help our SOS as much as Illinois this year. Maryland will probably help OSU's SOS more than ND. What excites us in August looks different to the committee in November.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
The whole “let’s play an easy OOC schedule for an easy path to the CFP” take turned out to be completely wrong.
Piggybacking off some of the other responses -- I don't think there's any evidence to backup your statement. Only twice in the history of the playoffs have two teams from the same conference been let in (and both cases were Bama and Georgia). In the 4 team format -- UM needs to beat OSU and/or win the B1G - that is the path to the playoff. If we don't do those things, an early non-conference win against UCLA or somebody of the sort, is not going to save us
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:39 PM ^
Committee is biased. They would have found another narrative to keep only one B1G team in the top 4.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:39 PM ^
100% agree with this.
If it wasn't SOS, it would be something else.
The take home message is NOT we need a harder SOS.
It's that the committee will do everything to effectively make The Game a playoff game so that only Michigan or Ohio make it. Not both.
A treatment reserved for every conference not named SEC.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:44 PM ^
sing it!!!
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^
Today, it could potentially hurt us. When we have 12 teams, it’ll make it easier in actually getting into the playoff, while potentially hurt us in earning a bye.
It’s very likely Michigan (and other teams) can lose two most years and make it in among the 12. I think it’ll be a boring strategy many top-school ADs will pursue, allowing two mulligans in-conference along with three warm-up games.
Here’s hoping I’m wrong.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
OOC scheduling is overrated.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^
exactly, so let's play fun great games to get excited about instead of horseshit games that nobody gets excited about.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
I think the counterpoint to this is Oregon -- would a 12-1 PAC-12 champion Oregon jump a 12-1 SEC runner-up Georgia (loss to Alabama) or even a 11-1 division runner-up Georgia (loss to Tennessee)? No -- because of the 49-3 shellacking in Week 1. There is no doubt that Georgia is better than Oregon -- you can certainly make the argument that the teams will change/grow throughout the year, but hard to overlook that result.
Meanwhile, a 12-1 B1G champion Michigan (say, loss to Illinois that is avenged in B1GCG), is making the 4-team playoff 100% of the time and would be in over either Georgia theoretical above.
So, a big OOC matchup can be high reward but also has that potential for risk. There is a certainly a happy medium for mid-tier P5 teams -- just hard to predict if you're getting 2022 Auburn or 2022 Tennessee.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
You have to be a borderline top 4 team for OOC scheduling to even matter. You probably don't lose by 100 if you're a borderline top 4 team. The loss won't keep them out. The fact they're probably not close to a top 4 team will keep them out. They are ranked 12th in FPI (a quality / predictive metric, behind both Utah and USC).
BUT, even still, if they win out and show they might be close to a top 4 team they still have a good chance to make it. No, they won't be ahead of a one-loss UGA but there are a lot of Ls left for teams ahead of them.
Two, UGA is the defending national champ and easily one of the three best teams in the country (reliably each year too). I would advise against scheduling UGA or Bama because they pose too much risk even for a borderline top 4 team. But a mid-level...like UCLA (or even top 20ish team like we thought Washington was last year)...is perfect. MUCH better for SoS purposes compared to a team in the 120s but still a low probability of losing for a borderline top 4 team.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:38 PM ^
That would be nice, but it's the home money that is keeping us from scheduling good games, not the fear of losses.
So I doubt it'll change, unfortunately.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:16 PM ^
The thing is, none of this is necessary. There are still ~10 games to be played between teams in the top 14. This will resolve itself in the regular season. If you allow that the seeding is imperfect anyways, think of them as "regional quarterfinals"
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^
I'm trying to figure out how they got to this ranking, since it looks different from the CFP poll.
It says how it would look today, but I'm guessing they're projecting the rest of the season here?
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:24 PM ^
Good question. The answer is they "got there" by making a LOT of assumptions as to how the rest of the year will play out to determine who will be the champions of which conferences.
You know how Lunardi publishes his "way too early bracketology" about 15 minutes after the final horn sounds in the national championship game? Which is complete and utter nonsense but people will argue about where he thinks their respective teams are seeded even though not a single game has been played so he, like the rest of us, has no fucking clue where teams will be slotted?
This is complete bullshit just like that.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^
That’s incorrect. They made a single assumption — that the highest ranked member of a conference was its champ — and then ordered everything else by the CFP ranking.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
That’s an awfully large assumption.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^
1) Top 4 seeds are P5 conference champs. They took the highest ranked member each conference (e.g. Tennessee over Georgia) and made it the conference champ.
2) The rest of the seeds are in order by CFP ranking.
3) The highest rated Group of 5 team also gets a spot (so Tulane takes UCLA’s spot at 12).
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:46 PM ^
A couple notes:
On point (1) --- it's the Top 4 conference champions regardless of conference affiliation. Cincinnati would have received a bye last season, despite being in a non-Power 5 league (they actually would have been the #3 seed).
On point (3) --- the top 6 rated Conference Champs get an automatic spot. A B1G Champ would not be guaranteed a spot, and ditto for other conferences.
An example from this year: envision Purdue goes 8-4 (in the regular season), wins the West and then wins in Indianapolis. They're not automatically in, they might still be ranked below both an American and MWC champ (Tulane and Boise State).
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
Nittany, as an aside - I'm making an assumption, which is - you watched Penn State's games against both Michigan and the Bucks.
If my assumption is correct, what was your impression of those two teams?
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
Both teams are (obviously) very good.
If you're asking "if my life was on the line and I had to pick a winner in a few weeks" --- I'm taking the Buckeyes.
22 years is a long time. I'll believe U-M can win in Columbus when I see it.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
A 12 team playoff is the only way to sort through the bullshit that is the current CFP. Pre season polls and roster prospecting play way too much of a part in the rankings. I mean ice skaters get points and are ranked. At this point the CFP allows for too much points ranking after the obvious top 1,2 or 3.
As an afterthought. I have family that attend MSU and a nephew who plays Baseball for them. My kids went to the same school as Angelo Grose who by all measures up to what happened “in the tunnel” is a great kid. I’m a UM guy and so is a good portion of my family. I guess what I’m saying is what happened the other night was complete bullshit, and there are no excuses. However I ask those who are tempted to please not paint everything with such a broad brush.
Nuff said. Points are back apparent so have it with the negs if you must.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^
You know...we all make mistakes...but not like this. There will likely be severe consequences and they will be very deserved. There is no parsing this matter.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:24 PM ^
I like us through to the Final Four there.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:08 PM ^
I agree. A little ironic that more games gives us a better shot at the semis than the current system, no?
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:30 PM ^
Hard pass. The four team is better than the 12 team, but neither are good for the sport. What makes college football so special is that it has the best regular season of all sports. Every game matters. The playoff has taken focus away from that and the 12 team will make regular season games less important ("oh well, we lost to aOSU, but we'll make the playoffs anyway.")
My ideal would be a four team playoff. B1G Champ v. PAC/Big12 Champ in the Rose Bowl. ACC Champ v. SEC Champ in the Sugar Bowl. Those winners play in the championship game. No voting, no committee. Teams earn their way in.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
Someone still has to decide which P5 conference champion gets left out.
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:13 PM ^
I completely agree and especially for Michigan and OSU, the 12 team playoff is a downer, IMO.
In a lot of years, it will render The Game largely inconsequential. Similar to the end of the NFL season when teams will rest guys at the end of the season. Is there anything more anti-climactic in sports than the last weekend of the NFL season? It's awful.
I like that the stakes are MASSIVE with The Game as it is. It's a de facto quarterfinal game in a lot of years. Will be sad when that ends.
Although I do like the byes and then home field for the 5-8s. Keeps some stakes. But how good was eliminating OSU last year?
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^
I think the earlier the expanded playoffs, the better.
Let's be honest, do you really believe that an undefeated Clemson is unequivocally better than a 1-loss Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee, or Georgia? It's very possible that the loser of the Georgia-Tennessee game and Michigan-Ohio State game is left out of the playoffs in favor of an undefeated TCU and Clemson. Both losing teams from those games could be seen as considerably better than TCU and Clemson yet the playoff selection committee could leave them out.
As much of a money grab as this sport is anymore, I don't understand why you wouldn't expand the playoffs as soon as possible. Let's be honest, no one cares about the other bowl games anymore because they don't mean a damn thing.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
Financially speaking, I would think they need to just get rid of all the other bowl games. They can't possibly break even once this 12 team playoff goes live. What I would LOVE to see replace these bowls is an 8 team Group of 5 playoff. I would definitely watch that.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
Like a CFB NIT!
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^
I would include the P5 in that.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^
The reason this is taking so long to get to 12 teams has to do with folks agreeing on
(1) how the money is split up (surprise!), and
(2) the schedule, going against the NFL and perhaps having to play games on Thursday and Friday nights, as the networks have reserved slots in late December for the pros.
As usual, follow the power and the money. The SEC, ESPN and even the B1G may be blockers.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
It’ll be super interesting in 2025 or 2026 when they get off their collective asses and finally get it implemented. No idea what is so damn hard about making a decision to expand
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
No sport is slower to change than CFB. Think about how long it took them to finally abandon the ridiculous idea of voting on a champion (well over 100 years). Then they instituted an almost equally ridiculous system in the BCS, and stuck with that for 15 years. Now we've been stuck with this garbage "playoff" system for a decade.
November 2nd, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^
When this 12 team format arrives, I wonder what will happen to CCG's. It seems they'll still be in place, since this proposed format requires the identification of conference champions.
And, as an aside - which is a more appealing OOC schedule.
1. Furman, Louisiana Tech, and South Carolina,
2. Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn,
3. Ball State, Akron, and UT Martin,
4. Utah State, UL Monroe, and Austin Peay,
5. Samford, Kent State, and Georgia Tech,
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:16 PM ^
6. None of the above.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
I wonder if they would try to avoid inter-conference 1st rd matchups (8-9, 7-10) and even try to shift around the bracket so, like, the top 4 seeds maybe don't see a conference foe until the national semis? To do the former you could simply switch Oregon-USC/LSU-Bama around somehow. To do the latter, you'd want to keep it close to how it is but maybe switch Georgia and Michigan.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
When there is a 12-team playoff, read that as 9 SEC teams and winner of 3 of four P5 teams.
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:24 PM ^
I have read that there is discussion on moving quarterfinal games to home stadiums of the top 4 seeds (instead of bowl games), but could we really reliably host a game isn Michigan Stadium in late December/early January? As is, with the current 12 teams, we'd be hosting a game in early/mid-December, which is just 2-3 weeks earlier than the quarterfinal games.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
I think the premise behind that is the semifinal games are NYD and the season starts the week BEFORE labor day (week 0), so the quarterfinals would take place early-mid december, same as the current first round
November 2nd, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^
It does seem to incentivize better OOC schedules, which is a plus. Making top 12 is very doable at 10-2 with a challenging schedule. And, if you can’t do that, you perhaps don’t belong. Allows the committee to say to a team with a crappy schedule — “you better win them all or all but perhaps one” and then take better teams with worse records. Unfortunately, I agree with the sentiment that this is gonna result in 4+ SEC teams every single year.