Every Conference Championship Outcome: Playoff Possibilities
You're about to witness the greatest miracle of the machine age. Based on the revolutionary computation law of probability, this machine will tell us the precise order of the 4 golden tickets.
Here they are: all 32 combinations. Some are more likely than others, of course. Here are the current lines: Mich by 21, Texas by 11.5, Oregon by 9, FSU by 5.5, Georgia by 4.5.
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) FSU (all favorites win)
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) Texas
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Texas
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Ohio St
G win, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) FSU
G win, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Oregon 4) Ohio St
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Texas 4) Alabama
G loss, M win, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Georgia 4) Alabama
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Oregon
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Oregon
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Oregon 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, M win, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Oregon 3) Alabama 4) Georgia
Michigan is by far the biggest favorite in their game, but here are these useless outcomes anyways:
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Mich
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Ohio St
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Mich
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Texas
G win, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Ohio St
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Mich
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Georgia
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) FSU 2) Oregon 3) Texas 4) Alabama
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) FSU 2) Alabama 3) Oregon 4) Mich
***G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Alabama 2) Oregon 3) Mich 4) Texas
G loss, M loss, Wash loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Alabama 2) Oregon 3) Georgia 4) Mich
***8 1-loss teams!!!
Notes:
I think that if Mich and Wash/Oregon are in the semifinal, they will work the seeding as best as they can to match them up for the last true rose bowl.
I think Alabama is in if they beat Georgia despite head to head loss to Texas.
Rooting Guide:
Michigan over Iowa (just win): In this case, any of Texas, Alabama, or FSU winning eliminates Ohio St (according to my scientific predictions)
In case of disaster: Texas or FSU loss gives Michigan a solid case to still qualify.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
Not going to read all that but anything that keeps OSU out of the CFP is fine with me!
November 26th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
any of Texas, Alabama, or FSU winning eliminates Ohio St (according to my scientific predictions)
I believe this is true.
Georgia can beat Bama. We'll see if Louisville can hang with FSU. Texas losing to OSU (NTOSU) seems to be the biggest reach. But if those 3 things happen I do believe that OSU makes it in.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
~17-1 odds at Draftkings
You probably also want Washington to either win or get blown out
Good luck Chuck
November 26th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
I think Louisville does beat FSU and get’s screwed. Bama-UGA seems like a toss up with both playing well but neither looking unbeatable. Don’t see Texas losing but it’s Texas.
I never like the idea of a team not making the conf championship and having to risk losing still getting in to the CFP. But objectively if the only loss is on the road to an undefeated #1 or #2 team at the end of the conf. championships then its hard to argue against.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
Based on what? Beating Penn State and ND while losing to Michigan without their head coach? Can happen because of tv eyes but should not. Had a chance and lost it, thrice.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
In these scenarios, there are two or three 1-loss teams. OSU is getting in over a 1-loss FSU (who would have lost to louisville), which makes sense, and potentially 1-loss Washington, which is open to debate, but I think OSU has the edge there.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
Why participate in conference championship games? OSU would benefit from failing again. Its a broken system if that occurs again.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
I agree that OSU would probably get in over 1-loss FSU. Losing close at Michigan isn't as bad as losing to Louisville at a neutral site. Their best wins are comparable (FSU over LSU and @Clemson, OSU over Penn St and @Notre Dame), but FSU had a bunch of narrow escapes against mediocre opponents.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
If Washington loses to Oregon, their best win would be Oregon and their worst loss would be Oregon. That would be better than anything OSU has on record. I am sure though that the CFP committee would never consider OSU for 3 separate years as a playoff team without even playing in their conference Championship because you know Ohio vs The World.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
What if Michigan loses? OSU In ahead of them?
November 26th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
I guarantee Day will start to come out early this week lobbying again why OSU “deserves” a chance to keep playing. Granted he probably should because he’s the HC and OSU is still a good team but every media member and their mother claimed the loser of The Game had basically a lottery-style chance of getting in. End of story, right? You lost what was essentially a pre-CFP playoff game and now back door scenarios have to be considered.
I don’t get why OSU gets the fighter’s chance for basically losing the real B1G conference championship game while other conference’s top teams who have to play another game are essentially penalized if they lose. Not scared of playing OSU twice and would love to beat them again but that game is done.
November 26th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
I think OSU has a better case this year than they did last year of being one of the four best teams. I get that a lot of teams lost last year making the choice of putting them in the playoffs somewhat legit, but how can a team get blown out at home to their biggest rival, not play in a championship game and make it in over two teams that did. I think because Michigan and OSU made it in last year and both teams lost, that will be enough to not have two teams in the B1G in again. I know this year is a new one but previous years do play a role in decision making especially when the outcomes are very similar to the previous year where the same team won The Game.
November 26th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
The worst thing to happen for OSU is for Michigan to lose. IMO, There is no way they make it in over Michigan.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
Michigan is irrelevant to them. It’s not like Iowa gets in too
November 26th, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
Thank you joegeo for doing work for this thread. Buckeye Chuck seems right. Likely up to Texas to close out OSU (no confidence in FSU right now), which seems likely based on the money line and records to date.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
If you read the whole post, you make it to the next level, which is a magic ocean world where you float along and dodge through schools of approaching spinefish.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Does the #1 seed get to pick where they want to play, regardless of any big10/pac12 affiliation with the rose bowl?
Seems highly likely we end up in the rose bowl but not a given yet.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
Forgot about that. I was thinking 2-3 was the rose bowl no matter what. They're meant to give the #1 seed a geographic advantage.
With this in mind, I think you're right, pretty much every scenario in which Michigan and either Wash/Oregon qualify (which is nearly every scenario) enables them to match up in the rose bowl.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
Yes, the 1 seed picks. Presuming Georgia would pick the Sugar Bowl.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
Would be nice to see the winged helmet in the Rose Bowl again , who knows when will get that chance again with the 12 team playoff!!
November 26th, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
So Every road game at UCLA.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
Thanks for this analysis. Gives us a "scientific" rooting guide as we watch the games.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
I select the third scenario.
4 unbeatens in and we get UW in the Rose Bowl
November 26th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Hope so. For the "last" Rose Bowl vibes, and also because I think UW would be a more than winnable matchup for this team.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^
Sounds like Roll Tide benefits us and hurts Ohio.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
Plenty of other ways to keep Ohio out, and fuck Bama.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^
We are in 28 out of 32 of these outcomes, or 87.5%. Throw in Brian Ferentz and I like those odds.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
If Michigan, UW, FSU and Texas all win, and UGA loses to Alabama, and Alabama gets into the CFP, then I am writing Senators. How would that be remotely fair to Texas, who beat Alabama AT ALABAMA? And quite convincingly I might add. The same Alabama team that needed, just yesterday, a 4th and 31 Hail Mary to beat a very average Auburn team.
Sorry, but that shit won't fly in the court of public opinion and I don't think the CFP would do that.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
Ok so hear me out: Alabama’s win over Georgia is a better win than Texas’s win over Bama.
-Paul Finebaum probably
November 26th, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
There are many scenarios where Texas feels screwed, and this combo may be the biggest one.
My thinking:
Key Element: Beating the 2-time defending national champion, who has a 29-game win streak, earns you an edge over other 1-loss teams. Major Edge: Alabama
Head to Head: Texas' win over Alabama was nearly 3 months ago, so committee doesn't weight it as much as Texas would like. Slight Edge: Texas
Underperformances: Both have had bad wins. Edge: even
Unspoken element: The SEC has won 6 of the last 8 NCs and had at least 1 team in the NC in 8 of the last 8. B12 has 1 playoff semifinal win (let's not talk about it). Edge: Alabama
November 26th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
Your logic is faulty. FSU would be left out. Their backup QB is crap, they would nit be fsvored to beat any of these other teams, and Bama resume is more impressive than FSU too. Committee will (rightly) say, sorry but the Travis injury changed everything.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
You think they put two 1-loss teams in over an undefeated team? They would NEVER leave an undefeated power 5 champion out. Disputed national championship if they do.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^
I also don't think the CFP would leave out an undefeated P5 conference champion. It shouldn't matter if FSU is playing their backup QB. If anything, it makes FSU look even better that they can overcome not having their (previous to injury) Heisman-worthy QB to beat a very good Louisville team to win the conference.
EDIT: the only logical choice here is leaving the SEC completely out of the CFP.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
ESPN has some influence here as they broadcast the playoffs. I guarantee the SEC will be in the playoff regardless of who wins or loses.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
glad to see zero situations where Michigan loses and doesn’t get in but OSU backs in somehow.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
I guess CCG pending, but I think we've easily earned #1. I have felt we've been clearly the best team in football all year, and I've never seen a Michigan team actually be underrated like this so consistently. Usually we win 8 games and we're getting ranked top 25. Now we dominate 12-0 and there's still doubters.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
There are four 12-0 teams. We're currently number 2 behind a team with a 29 game win streak and 2 consecutive national titles. I think that's fair.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
Assuming Georgia would take the sugar bowl anyway, I'd rather be #2 playing a #3 Washington/Oregon team in the Rose bowl. No need to give Georgia more bullshit motivation about how everyone doubts the poor 2 time defending champions.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
If OSU finds their way into the playoff AGAIN, it would be the most third base move in history.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
G win, M win, Wash/Oregon win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash/Oregon 4) Ohio St
This is a very possible scenario and I hate it.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
If it’s a close game, a Washington loss should still keep them in the tourney over OSU and FSU.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
Does a one loss pac 12 champion Oregon definitely jump an undefeated ACC champ FSU in playoff seedlings?
That seems to be what most on the forum are thinking
November 26th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
*Pac-12 champ.
It would be interesting to see what the committee does. No question in my mind that if I am the 1 seed I would rather face FSU than Oregon. I would rather face FSU even if they still had Jordan Travis. I think the committee would use the injury as an excuse to put Oregon ahead of FSU.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Oregon is in the PAC. Did u mean OR Oregon?
November 26th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
Yes. Sorry meant pac-12. Haven’t had my coffee yet this morning. Post edited
November 26th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
Good question. I guess the injury
November 26th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Just don’t let those OSU bastards in the back door like last year.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
I’m not complaining, when you’re in the CFP, you’re gonna play a good team. But the fact that we’re kind of stuck in that 2 position (assuming we take care of Iowa and Georgia takes care of AL) isn’t great. It means we’re almost certainly going to play a west coast team, probably Oregon, in the Rose bowl.
I think I would rather us draw Georgia in the semis at the sugar bowl, over Oregon in Pasadena. Not saying we can’t win, but I think most can agree that Oregon in Pasadena is a bad draw for us.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
I don’t know about all of you, but I’d rather play Washington than Oregon. Washington is too 1-dimensional. Granted, it’s worked thus far, but that would be a bad matchup against Michigan’s defense. Oregon, however, can run and pass. Their defense is very good and fast.
If, somehow, Oregon gets in, I would love to see them play Georgia. Very curious on how that would go.
November 26th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
Simple summary is that OSU needs FSU and Texas to lose or they’re out