ESPN: Ranking the Top 10 QBs heading into 2023 season (McCarthy at # 8)
ESPM has posted a list of the top 10 QBs heading into the 2023 season. It has JJ McCarthy listed at # 8. I am not saying he is the best QB in the country, but 8 seems a bit low to me even if I am trying not to be a homer.
April 10th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
There's really a lot of uncertainty at the QB position next year and I think this will be one of the storylines heading into the season. I can see a number of people not on this list now that could be on it at the end of the season. People like Cade Klubnik and Kyle McCord (or whoever wins the OSU QB job) could easily slide in. Milton could also have a huge season at Tenn. Will Drew Allar be the golden boy PSU fans have been hoping for? A bunch of questions and plenty of potential for next season.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
I understand why PSU fans might be excited about Allar, but I don't understand why anyone thinks he'll be great right away. Recruiting profile? Sure, it was good. But he's barely played and when he did play he looked... meh? I didn't watch all of their games and he came into the Michigan game late, but he looked as lost as any true freshman did. He didn't look ahead of any curve there.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
Bookmark this when we all clamor for Jadyn to be competing for a starting spot as a true freshman....
Allar 32 composite, QB 4 composite (and #1 for 247)
Davis 28 composite, QB 4 composite (and #2 for 247)
April 10th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
Win the natty in 2023 and then go rebuild mode in 2024 by letting the young guns (like Davis) get some experience. I'd be fine with it
Bookmark this when we all clamor for Jadyn to be competing for a starting spot as a true freshman
I mean there's a good chance he will start if JJ leaves after this year
We may also want to keep in mind that they were in different recruiting classes, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
In the little bit I saw of him, he looked like he had a big arm but not much mobility. That, combined with his recruiting profile suggests that he'll be very good if Penn State's line can protect him. Know they got a LT back who everyone thought would go high in the draft, but other than that, their line has been mediocre to bad since Frames got there. When they've been good, it's involved a fairly mobile QB.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
MgBlog's Brian Cook's commandment #7. James Franklin always has a shitty OL.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I've posted a few times on this already --- so I won't repeat all the details --- but that really wasn't true of PSU's OL in 2022.
Doesn't mean greatness in 2023, of course --- and I may be wrong, but I'm actually currently not worried about the PSU OL for the first time in about 10 years.
Point taken from someone who knows. But, honestly, in your heart, is James Franklin your guy? Is he going to take the program to the next level?
Franklin isn't going anywhere, so I don't burn too much angst about him. PSU hasn't had a coach even close to the "hot seat" since WWII (JoePa's firing doesn't count, that was a very unique circumstance). PSU is essentially the Steelers, their coaches are their coaches.
It's fair to say he doesn't know how to win the big game when it's there for the taking. The 2017, 2018 and 2022 Ohio State games - all huge opportunities where PSU led (by double digits in 2 of them!) with 9:00 left, but the opportunity for a program-defining win was missed.
But, it may simply take ONE big win to get the 1,000,000 pound weight off the back and flip literally everything. Harbaugh and the 2021 OSU game is just such an example, of course.
Hope springs eternal. I'm also a Detroit Lions & Cincinnati Reds fan, so I have to think that way (the Reds are 4-4!).
How many guys can take PSU to the next level? In the last 7 years PSU jas gone (I didn't include the covid year):
11-3 (played in the Rose Bowl)
11-2 (Fiesta Bowl)
9-4 (Citrus Bowl)
11-2 (Cotton Bowl)
7-6 (Outback Bowl)
11-2 (Rose Bowl)
That's pretty darn good. If Franklin can keep that up, they should be competing for a playoff berth when the playoffs expand. Do you get rid of Franklin and roll the dice you can hire a guy who can get a little better?
You have bigger things to worry then the offensive line.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
Allar is also a statue. I don’t see what all the hype is about. They don’t possess OSUs receiving corps therefore I struggle to see him lighting the world on fire.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
Allar is also a statue. I don’t see what all the hype is about. They don’t possess OSUs receiving corps therefore I struggle to see him lighting the world on fire.
This was the EXACT same thing people were saying about McCarthy over Cade last season for Michigan. JJ had plenty of very freshman moments (MSU game anyone?) same way Allar did.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
I'd be shocked if Milton has a huge season. Frankly I'd be surprised if he gets to week 6 as the starter.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
Tenn runs a very QB friendly system under Heupel
2023-24 Heisman Trophy Odds
Caleb Williams (QB) USC +350
Drake Maye (QB) North Carolina +900
Bo Nix (QB), Oregon +1100
Jordan Travis (QB) Florida State +1100
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) Washington +1100
Quinn Evers (QB) Texas +1300
Brock Vandagriff (QB) Georgia +1300
Sam Hartman (QB) Notre Dame +1400
Cade Klubnik (QB) Clemson +1400
Jayden Daniels (QB) LSU +1700
Joe Milton (QB) Tennessee +1700
Drew Allar (QB) Penn State +1700
Ty Simpson (QB) Alabama +2200
Kyle McCord (QB) Ohio State +2200
J.J. McCarthy (QB) Michigan +2200
April 10th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
If I had posted a comment here two years ago that Joe Milton would eventually be given better odds to win the Heisman than JJ, I would have been sent to Bolivia just on general principle.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
But it's a systems issue. The Heisman has really, sadly, become about gaudy numbers. JJ could never achieve that in UM's offense, much less without two of the nation's best running backs coming back. To me, JJ's odds might as well be a billion to one.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
And generally a top 10 team. The only Heisman winners in the CFP era (since 2014) who did not play on teams finishing in the top 10 are Caleb Williams (USC was 12 in the final AP rankings) and Lamar Jackson (Louisville finished #21 in 2016).
Notes:
- USC was top 10 for a majority of the season and as high as #4 before wetting the bed against Utah in the P12 CG and then blowing the bowl game against Tulane.
- Louisville was in the top 10 for a majority of the season before they lost their last 3 games of the season, including the bowl game.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
JJ could have put up bigger numbers if he wasn't missing all the long balls in the first half of the year. JJ is the best we've had in a while but he has stuff to work on to get better. 8 in the box to stop the run should give more big play opportunities.
Your points are valid - he would have had better numbers. But nowhere near the gaudy spotlights that demand Heisman attention. QB's need a pass happy, pass first, and pass again offense that runs up 40 point wins over anyone without a pulse, and high scoring competitive wins against pulse-bearing opponents.
The Harbuaghffense is not compatible with QB's being considered for Heisman candidancy.
I generally agree with this. The counterpoint is someone like Max Duggan who ended up 2nd in the Heisman voting last season. He only passed for 246 yard per game, which is a far cry from Williams (324 ypg). Even Stroud (283 ypg) in a down year for him was more prolific.
That said, I could see JJ having a similar season to the one Duggan had where he passes for another 40 ypg (that would give him about 3200 passing yards), rushes for 400+ yards, cuts down on his mistakes, and makes a push for Heisman consideration if the team makes the CFP again and he's not overshadowed by Corum and/or Edwards.
That said, I would LOVE it if somehow Corum AND McCarthy were in Heisman contention. What can I say, I'm an optimist.
Duggan finished second, though, in the context of TCU having a large number of close wins where he made the key plays that allowed them to pull out wins. Given our schedule next year, I certainly hope JJ doesn't have those opportunities and, were he to do so, I'm not sure late game heroics would overcome a media narrative of "why is Michigan playing down to all these teams" (at least in the first 2/3 of the year.
It’s crazy to me that only two quarterbacks have won the Heisman and then QB’d their team to a Super Bowl victory, and both from an ancient time well before most MGoBloggers were alive: Roger Staubach and Jim Plunkett.
It’s actually a tribute to McCarthy’s talent that he’s ranked as highly as he is, because the numbers of the rest of the top 10 highlight how much less often Michigan throws the ball than almost every other school.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
Joe Milton will throw for 5,000 yards next season.
They won't all come on completed passes, but he will throw for 5,000 yards.
Unexpectedly awesome laugh. Thanks.
On his first 10 throws.
April 10th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
I was preparing to be triggered but after I looked at the list it seems reasonable. He's in the 5-10 range.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
A very astute observation. 8 is indeed in the 5-10 range.
MATH!!!! The Michigan Difference...
April 10th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Same. The real disrespekt is Cam Rising at 6. He should be 2 or 3. Maye, Travis, and Hartman are overrated because the ACC was dogshit, but where to rank JJ among them is mostly homer quibbling.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
If Maye was eligible this year he'd be the overall top pick in the draft.
What amazing defenses are running around in the Pac 12 aside Utah (going off recent history, I don't know how good they were last year) ...and Big 12 (any?) etc.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
That's a different question than whether he'll be the third-best QB in college football this season.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
Not a betting man and I don't know how good the overall UNC team is, but he will be in NYC IMO, and if UNC can be a top 10-12 team he could be the winner. He is 6-4 is mobile and put up almost the exact same stat line (parallel completion %, a few less TDs and 2 more INTs) than Williams. Despite being a few years younger. He and Caleb should be 1-2 in some order in the draft.
Maye is good, very good. He went under the radar for most of last season because UNC was not really in the national spotlight. But his numbers and his play kept getting better as the season went on. It has been said by multiple NFL scouts that both Williams and Maye would be the #1 pick in this years draft if they were in it.
As for this ranking, going into the season, I have no problem with the top 3 (don't sleep on Penix, he is stiff competition), after that 4-10 is debatable. I would have JJ either 4 or 5 up there with Nix. Rising, Travis, and especially Hartman are just a smidge below JJ and Nix.
I will say JJ's write is accurate (and why ESPN most likely have him at 8), avoiding the critical mistakes. His 2 pick 6's are standing out right now and with the smallest margins of differences between 4-10 that is "holding" him back...
April 10th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
This made me realize outside of Michigan how little I follow college football anymore. I was a fanatic once upon a lifetime. I know most of the names but know very little of their games. I think McCarthy has a shot to move up that list by years end. Will Michigan allow him to be dual threat or will they lock him down in certain games they should win like in past? The key to us winning it all is allowing him free reign to be the playmaker he is. There are injury risk with that mentality I get it...
April 10th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
They don't need him to be a dual threat aside a few games a year. Great OL best RB room in country. And with the dropoff to QB2 he shouldn't be. Save him for 2-3 games a year. Tuttle or Warren ain't taking us to the promised land.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
I'm having trouble picking anyone in the top 7 who would clearly be behind JJ. Maaaybe Cam Rising, Jordan Travis, or Bo Nix but not clearly so. 8 seems fair enough
April 10th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
The whole problem with this list is that it's not accounting for a heretofore unknown, and that is whatever QB commands Josh Gattis' next Speed In Space blitzkrieg.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
Taulia Tagovailoa
Doesn't matter. It's about the Broyles-winning puppetmaster who'll bag your mom. Could be John O'Korn, for all I care.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Shocked Cam Rising still has eligibility - feels like he is on one of those Purdue bball plans where the guy is there a decade.
As for JJ, you just don't put up massive QB stats in this offense week in and week out. Throw him into Oregon's (or OSU's) and he'd probably be in Bo Nix's spot. Big 10 offenses as a whole ex Purdue OSU - are pretty "sludgy". Hence he is the only B10 QB on the list.
Outside of Maye and Williams these are all seniors as well (aside JJ)
April 10th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Another thing JJ would need to do is carry the offense of his back in tight situations, if ever Michigan is behind in the 3rd or 4th quarter. I would also like to see JJ execute successful red zone plays resulting in TDs. I fully understand that it's not all on him, as play calling from the OC or Harbaugh has even more to do with that.
JJ got better on his deep pass plays late last season so he should pick up where he left off to start this coming season. I love JJ's scrambling abilities. He should not be in the Top 5-10 range and that will win us a lot of games, as in all of them.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Here is something that is vastly different from College Basketball; longevity of some of these players is quite impressive (Covid-year caveats obviously apply)
But I am shocked players like Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Cam Rising, and Michael Penix STILL have eligibility.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
Great off-season click bait. Personally, the only guys on that list I might take ahead of JJ are Williams, Penix and Maye. Nobody else is demonstrably better.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Penix is turnover prone and Maye isn’t the runner JJ is.
Caleb is indeed in a class of his own.
April 10th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Maye ran for 700 yards last year. JJ ran for 300.