ESPN's Pelton ranks Walton 28th best player in draft; Wilson 40
One of ESPN's bball advanced stats guys put together a list of top players in this year's NBA draft based on historical stat data, factoring in scouts' projection, which apparently improves accuracy.
Results are here: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19638855/ranking-markelle-fu…
As set forth in the title, he ranks Walton 28th and Wilson 40th.
Just use:
I didn't know a site like that existed. Thanks for sharing that link.
+1 for the tip.
"I don't need no stinking cape" - Chuck Norris
"My projections estimate the number of WARP (wins above replacement player) that each player will average during his first five seasons in the NBA, based on two components."
It's unclear if this is in comparison to his backup on the roster or an average player at that position or what.
Here's a detailed breakdown of WARP by Pelton himself: http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html
But to answer your question: WARP is meant to represent the number of wins that a given player would add over the course of the season on a team of four other average players, compared to the wins generated by four average players and one "replacement-level player"; i.e. a player right on the margin of sticking in the NBA -- somebody you could swap out with any number of D-league guys on 10-day contracts and expect about the same statistical production.
That's against an average player for those five years.
In Wins Above Replacement Player (and the closely related Value Over Replacement Player), the "replacement" player isn't average, but at the bottom end of viable. The wins/value are calculated in the context of average teammates and opponents, but the hypothetical comparison player is much worse than average.
Go Walton!!
Well this is quite useful. Thanks!
EDIT: Meant to reply to Chuck Norris' ESPN Insider link.
But where are they in your heart?
I watched about 5 minutes of a draft combine scrimmage. Walton was on one team and Wagner was on the other. That was strange. Wagner looked OK, but I think he made the right choice coming back. The announcers mentioned that 17 of the first round guys last year spent some time in the D-league this year. That appears to be Walton's fate, initially. I can see him making a roster eventually as an 8-10 mpg type contributor. He just seems too small to be the lead guy at PG for somebody. But I could be wrong.
Would Wilson have made the wrong choice financially if he had ended up like #5 in next year's draft (a distinct possibility with continued improvement)? I suppose it depends how the rookies' salaries are capped, and I am not aware of how that works.
If there was no cap, then I think he definitely made the wrong choice.