Elite Eight predictions and keys to the game
First we have the JV game (ha), UConn vs Staee. Unfortunately I feel like Virginia had a much better chance to beat State than UConn does. I don't see UConn being able to match up with Payne and Dawson's physicality down low. Virginia had them on the ropes, but State made just enough plays down the stretch to come out with the W. I think UConn's only chance is for either Napier or Boatright to play the games of their lives. This is definitely possible, especially in MSG, but I unfortunately see State pulling this one out.
Then we have our Michigan Wolverines taking on Kentucky. In basketball, there's really two ways to create extra possessions for your team. One is to get offensive rebounds, which Kentucky is probably going to do. The second is to turn the ball over less than your opponent, which we (hopefully) will do. If those two things are close to even, then it really just comes down to who shoots the ball better. Michigan needs to play very efficiently offensively, and I think we'll be able to. One thing a lot of people aren't talking about is the loss of Cauley Stein's pick and roll defense. I think having a big guy that is skilled at defending the pick and roll is one of the most important factors in being able to contain Michigan's offense. While I haven't seen much of Dakari Johnson play, everything I've read points to him possibly struggling in this area. I think we definitely need to take advatage of this. And also, it will be key for Kentucky to shoot 3-pointers more to their season average (4/14 vs Louisville), and not get hot like they did against Wichita State.
My predictions:
MSU 77, UConn 67
Michigan 73, Kentucky 68
For us offensively we need caris and gr3 to attack the paint..I think nik will have a big game today as well. Defensively I think we may have to run some zone and make Kentucky shoot jumpers..we make them shoot jumpers we win.
Courtesy of TeamRankings...
|
Offense
|
Kentucky | Michigan |
| Points/Game | 75.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Score Margin | +8.9 | +9.2 |
| Assists/Game | 11.3 | 14.2 |
| Total Rebounds/Gm | 40.8 | 31.6 |
| Effective FG % | 49.8% | 55.8% |
| Off Rebound % | 41.5% | 26.6% |
| FTA/FGA | 0.531 | 0.352 |
| Turnover % | 15.0% | 13.0% |
|
Defense
|
Kentucky | Michigan |
| Opp Points/Game | 66.5 | 64.8 |
| Opp Effective FG % | 45.5% | 49.1% |
| Off Rebounds/Gm | 13.0 | 7.4 |
| Def Rebounds/Gm | 24.5 | 21.6 |
| Blocks/Game | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| Steals/Game | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Personal Fouls/Gm | 18.5 | 14.2 |
I don't waste my time with SEC Basketball, but isn't it odd how they allow more ppg than us despite being better in basically every defensive category?
Higher possession games will do that
Not the best looking game for UM, but UK feels like a bit of a paper tiger. They are playing well in terms of wins, but they needed late-game comebacks against Wichita and Louisville, and at some point that magic is going to run out.
Kentucky 84 Michigan 71
Guessing with my head, not my heart.
That said, Go Blue!!
Hope that this doesn't come to fruition. I hate to sound petty here, but if Michigan goes down today, I hope MSU loses, too.
Umm I hope MSU loses today no matter what. But I also hope Michigan wins a whole lot more.
I'm "rooting" for MSU....why?
I guess only because I'd love to see an all-Michigan NC game. You're right, though. Screw them. Go us.
unless you are gambling, go with your heart; no body likes watching the game with either told-you-so dueschebag or not-in-it-to-win-it debby downer.
Wolverines 83
Kentucky 63
we got this
If Kentucky wins, it won't be by that many. I could definitely see them beating UM, but it will be close.
As for MSU, UConn feels like a bit of a team of destiny, and for all the "great" play MSU has shown at times, they have struggled enough all of their competition to make me think they could be knocked out if Napier stays hot. Also, UConn is playing an absolute home game, and while there are some MSU fans in the NYC area, the presence doesn't even remotely match that of UConn or, frankly, UM.
UM will effectively be playing a road game today as well. Indy is going to be full of Kentucky fans.
Is it possible? Sure. Kentucky is astoundingly talented. But each of the 3 times I've seen them this year, they've just been incredibly undisciplined offensively, and even with the crazy offensive glass capability, I just don't think they are going to score 80+ against Michigan.
I don't see this pick as a "head" pick. I think this is close to a worst case choice, not a "most probable" pick.
Rob
73-7 Kentucky
Uconn Wisconsin in the NC
Wisky wins 83-77
Wow. I hope we make it a tad closer than that.
2. Limit UKs ability to penetrate. Michigan has struggled with this from time to time this season and UK is very aggressive taking the ball to the basket.
3. Hold their own in the glass. They cannot let UK beat them with 2nd chance opportunities.
As you can see, with the exception of turnovers, my keys are on the defensive end. Kentucky is nothing to write home about defensively so I'm fairly confident about Michigan's offense. Obviously, Michigan has to knock down shots, but I do think the looks will be there for them. GO BLUE!
MSU bigs overwhelm UConn
UM UK comes down to last second shot - coin flip. Dribble drive penetration by UK guards will drive us crazy all day. Morgan cannot be taken out of game by refs.
Sorry I can not do it...
Kentucky 78 Michigan 72
Bah Ram You we're MSU 72, UConn 69
UM wins this one by 10
this game is gonna be the equivalent of the ninja turtles going against Tokka and Rahzar from TMNT 2. Super powerful toddlers.
1) Limit UK's offensive rebounding
2) not allow thier guards to penetrate at their will
3) attack their bigs... Get Dakari in foul trouble
4) win the game
Not making a prediction because I havn't made one at all this tournament... GO BLUE
1) Morgan stay out of foul trouble
2) Kentucky hits their threes at their season average.
3) We commit turnovers at our season average.
I think if those three things happen we win fairly easily.
Louisville's big men got several... um... iffy fouls. And by iffy I mean they whistled Van Treese for getting hit in the face by Randle once and he played the entire 2nd half with nose clog things, and they fouled out Harrell on a play in which he didn't even touch the UK player, at all. And that was after the UK player charged, then traveled.
Morgan will get ran over a lot in this game, and he'll have a hard time drawing a charge beause they rarely call them on Kentucky.
Just a tidbit regarding willey cauley-stein...
I saw their lineup efficiencies with him on offense drop from 1.15 to 1.11 without him.
Their defense increases from 0.97 to 1.04 without him in the lineup.
Overall, his loss is worth 0.11. If we estimate the game to be 64 possesions, his absense translates to, on average, 7.04 point difference.
I want this shit so fucking bad. Let's get it boys. Go Blue.
I don't meant to be a Debbie Downer, I just have a bad feeling about this game. I want another Final Four more than anything, and I hope we win...it's just something deep down in my gut about this matchup...
Even if we bow out today, I never had us past the Sweet Sixteen when Mitch went down, so I think I'm at peace regardless of today's outcome. Another shot at Wisconsin would be so so sweet however.
Kentucky 76 UM 69
We're not only going up against whatever talent and experience Kentucky has, but we'll also be battling the refs, who will call this game as though it were being played in Lexington.